Critical Levels - EW analysis

[madmat]

Here I am posting a slightly tuned current count and current illustration of breakout. Like Ryan has suggested, we could be heading up to retest 3000yuan to complete a double zigzag. I believe that if we test this level again then we could also likely be in wave III, but either count will be evident at the time.

It is important to note that the down swing from 3000yuan was very much corrective in behaviour in comparison to the rally to 3000 yuan. This is why test of 3000 is not unlikely even in the case of wave V to come ($275 retest) and that wave V has probably not yet begun in that case.

If we are beginning wave V to test $275, then a 50% correction is likely of the swing from 3000 yuan, or about 2500 yuan.

This breakout could be considered a buy signal for the medium term trader but I prefer only to buy the bottom and dips. If we form a medium term up trend here there will likely be buy opportunities along the way.

Thanks again for this great post. I bought 2 days ago at 286€ (~2190yuans). And I hope to sell a little below 3000. My stop is at 2000. I will tip you if I do a good trade.

[podyx]

chessnut, what's your thoughts on this descending wedge??

Encountering resistance here

I fear that we might go down all the way to $330... hopefully we'll follow cheestnut's TA though

Updated on huobi:



Thoughts??

[karol]

In my opinion we will go to 2050. Look how week was this rebound to 2200

[Carra23]

The weekend dip did not quite happen. I think its quite difficult to say now which way it will play out. Seems it may either go to 2xx or to 5xx.

[poncom]

The weekend dip did not quite happen. I think its quite difficult to say now which way it will play out. Seems it may either go to 2xx or to 5xx.

I think that's why the volume's been so low over the past few hours. Nobody's sure which way it will go.

[chessnut]

While there has been some down side volatility the medium term base is still in tact and valid. It not a good idea to change position over such small movements. It does'nt seem to me like it has legs to the downside but at this point in time we have to be alert just in case.

Here is illustrated the most probable count.

[Tornate]

It is 2300 at moment. Are we still heading to 3000?

[asdlolciterquit]

one question: why this thread is based on yuan and not $? are you all from china?

[chessnut]

The medium term picture is still fairly ambiguous so we just need to manage our risk well and wait for more evidence.

Right now it seems we are at a medium term juncture. this could be a short term top before a fair amount of range-bound action or a fairly deep correction.

medium term is still fairly promising for more up but different counts may take very different paths and risk is fairly high.

one question: why this thread is based on yuan and not $? are you all from china?

liquidity is better in china and so charts are more accurate. velly high qwality  

It is 2300 at moment. Are we still heading to 3000?

3000 is a fair target depending on the underlying count, ideally we will soon have more evidence regarding this. I think that one way or the other 2500 is a fair target medium term whatever count. A retest of 3000 yuan is still valid.

[chessnut]

Is it possible we'll see no correction and just keep going up?

For the short term it is very unlikely imo that we will see no correction, but for the medium term it is possible. I dont think it is worth betting on the moon at this stage purely from a risk reward ratio, as risk there evidently is.

[madmat]

Thanks again chessnut for your post.
I closed my trade this morning, before your post, with a profit of 4,6%. I bought last week at 286€ and sold at 300€.

I am going to wait for more evidence to trade again. I don't like risky trades.

[chessnut]

Thanks again chessnut for your post.
I closed my trade this morning, before your post, with a profit of 4,6%. I bought last week at 286€ and sold at 300€.

I am going to wait for more evidence to trade again. I don't like risky trades.

What a shame that you could have done a bit better, although it seems like the short term top has finally come and we should have a nice buy signal after this coming correction.

[karol]

Hi Chessnut,

It was a triangle as this correction? You always assume a triangle is terminal move is it the same case now?

[madmat]

Thanks again chessnut for your post.
I closed my trade this morning, before your post, with a profit of 4,6%. I bought last week at 286€ and sold at 300€.

I am going to wait for more evidence to trade again. I don't like risky trades.

What a shame that you could have done a bit better, although it seems like the short term top has finally come and we should have a nice buy signal after this coming correction.

Yes, i could have done better to find the top. But i did a profit and i am happy with that.

I learnt something. I was trading with 0.1btc at first and i was losing every time. Now, i trade with a lot more, some real money i really don't want to lose. And i win. I trade less and when i do it, i have a plan and i am confident in it.

[Phillis]

Thanks again chessnut for your post.
I closed my trade this morning, before your post, with a profit of 4,6%. I bought last week at 286€ and sold at 300€.

I am going to wait for more evidence to trade again. I don't like risky trades.

What a shame that you could have done a bit better, although it seems like the short term top has finally come and we should have a nice buy signal after this coming correction.

Yes, i could have done better to find the top. But i did a profit and i am happy with that.

I learnt something. I was trading with 0.1btc at first and i was losing every time. Now, i trade with a lot more, some real money i really don't want to lose. And i win. I trade less and when i do it, i have a plan and i am confident in it.

thats a very good way to start trading, some people just go all in the first run and some bad things can happen. Glad you were able to profit. Lets see how high this bad boy wants to go.

[RoadTrain]

Thanks again chessnut for your post.
I closed my trade this morning, before your post, with a profit of 4,6%. I bought last week at 286€ and sold at 300€.

I am going to wait for more evidence to trade again. I don't like risky trades.

What a shame that you could have done a bit better, although it seems like the short term top has finally come and we should have a nice buy signal after this coming correction.

Yes, i could have done better to find the top. But i did a profit and i am happy with that.

I learnt something. I was trading with 0.1btc at first and i was losing every time. Now, i trade with a lot more, some real money i really don't want to lose. And i win. I trade less and when i do it, i have a plan and i am confident in it.

You have a point, because more money makes you more disciplined in your trading strategy.

[chessnut]

Once again Ill issue a word of warning about chasing the price here as I think we might have just thrusted out of a triangle. Triangles are terminal moves and are followed by reversals of one higher fractal.

Having said that, the price action has been so strong and bullish that I am eagerly looking for evidence of the beginning of a III wave. Holders hold until we have a clean medium term reversal signal. Frankly, at this stage the evidence that wave III has begun would likely mean buying at a much higher level than we are at now. I hope everyone has at least some bitcoins in cold storage at this point. In the case of wave III, (which I cant say with any confidence is likely) we could be at cerca 4000 yuan in about a week. I am always 100% in bitcoin at this point, although technically sometimes I do short with limited risk.

[madmat]

Once again Ill issue a word of warning about chasing the price here as I think we might have just thrusted out of a triangle. Triangles are terminal moves and are followed by reversals of one higher fractal.

Having said that, the price action has been so strong and bullish that I am eagerly looking for evidence of the beginning of a III wave. Holders hold until we have a clean medium term reversal signal. Frankly, at this stage the evidence that wave III has begun would likely mean buying at a much higher level than we are at now. I hope everyone has at least some bitcoins in cold storage at this point. In the case of wave III, (which I cant say with any confidence is likely) we could be at cerca 4000 yuan in about a week. I am always 100% in bitcoin at this point, although technically sometimes I do short with limited risk.

Could you please precise at what level we could be sure wave III has begun ?

[podyx]

Time to buy?

[BitCoinNutJob]

Time to buy?

with a very decent chance the price will go way into thousands its always good to buy and hold, only trade with a fraction of your holdings