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501  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2020, 02:25:59 AM
You guys (and gal) cannot be relying on me to be holding up WO statistics.

WO statistics are page count parity and post count parity. Word count parity ain't a thing.

JJG was gone for roughly one week, and the total WO post count parity, dipped noticeably.
Focus, nobody bought this dip.
Should he ever leave for a month or more, we are dealing with a 80% correction, to complete annihilation and lock down of the thread, on the yearly milestone.

Probably need to petition some kind of special waiver from theymos.. in case theymos is feeling trigger happy and inclined to deep 6 the thread based on per day post count...? or maybe if someone were to program chartbuddy II, then theymos would not notice the slippage?

I could do a little script that would periodically repost a bunch of random paragraphs of your laddering strategy and or DCA tips extracted from your past posts. Perhaps also add some offending comments to jbreher, a few fuck offs here and there every time someone comes shilling altcoins, and a lot of randomly generated percentages (that never add up to 100%) and maybe noone would even notice. For additional impact, it would triple posting rate and lenght on thursdays. I would need access to your bitcointalk creds though. Maybe your private keys too... because of reasons.

WB JJG!  Grin
502  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2020, 12:25:41 AM
I was thinking about my private medical insurance which is supposed to cover me worldwide... but, yeah, probably there are lots of exclusions that I never even bothered to read... But I have just checked that it seems that there is a maximum cover of 50000€ which, after knowing the completely ridiculous prices of medical services in US, it's almost a joke.

Not only it would be a very bad idea to go during a pandemic... but I am also questioning myself if I should ever come back there after realising this. Geez... I was way happier when living on ignorance.

I would never think to assume private medical insurance worked abroad. What you need is travel insurance. Even the crappiest travel insurance bought in the UK covers you for £5-10 million of expense. I'm quite tempted to go above that and see what happens but I'm not sure what ailment I would need. Maybe give birth to siamese twins with AIDS?

And there's no way at all I would ever go anywhere near the US without the best possible insurance.

Mine explicitly includes worldwide cover but limits it to 50000€ max in that case, which now that I know better it is kind of a joke for anything that would require any "complex" (by american standards) procedure or prolonged hospital stay.

5-10Million would probably be more than enough, yeah... if it is more than that then it probably would mean that I am so fucked up that they better let me die anyways.

What I previously said about being happier while living in ignorance is completely accurate considering I *never* bought a travel insurance assuming it was redundant to what I already had. Realising that being cheap could have cost me all I had (and maybe even more) is mindblowing.

Thanks for your advice guys, will carefully do my homework next time I do travel.

P.S.: Thinking about this is making me recognise how wonderful is to have free public health service and how we usually don't see the value in those things we have always taken for granted.

503  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2020, 12:06:41 AM
Vegas just got its first Covid-19 case, what do you guys think odds for a WSOP cancellation look like now?

https://twitter.com/DougPolkPoker/status/1235617119166795776?s=20

Just read this one, how likely would that be, its a very big tournament like 10,000 participants coming from all over the world....
All of these big events are getting cancelled but Vegas is almost entirely based off of tourism right? They might be very reluctant to cancel things there.

Hmmmm, this is interesting. Vegas always try to fill their hotels even if that means almost giving their rooms for free. I am wondering if this summer will be good to go there again for mere pennies.

I would need to check first if my private insurance would cover a coronavir infection overseas... Those US medical bills can rise fast enough to wipe all your lifetime net worth in a couple months.

Decisions, decisions....

Careful.  Lots of travel insurance excludes pandemics.  

I was thinking about my private medical insurance which is supposed to cover me worldwide... but, yeah, probably there are lots of exclusions that I never even bothered to read... But I have just checked that it seems that there is a maximum cover of 50000€ which, after knowing the completely ridiculous prices of medical services in US, it's almost a joke.

Not only it would be a very bad idea to go during a pandemic... but I am also questioning myself if I should ever come back there after realising this. Geez... I was way happier when living on ignorance.
504  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2020, 01:16:43 PM
Vegas just got its first Covid-19 case, what do you guys think odds for a WSOP cancellation look like now?

https://twitter.com/DougPolkPoker/status/1235617119166795776?s=20

Just read this one, how likely would that be, its a very big tournament like 10,000 participants coming from all over the world....
All of these big events are getting cancelled but Vegas is almost entirely based off of tourism right? They might be very reluctant to cancel things there.

Hmmmm, this is interesting. Vegas always try to fill their hotels even if that means almost giving their rooms for free. I am wondering if this summer will be good to go there again for mere pennies.

I would need to check first if my private insurance would cover a coronavir infection overseas... Those US medical bills can rise fast enough to wipe all your lifetime net worth in a couple months.

Decisions, decisions....
505  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2020, 09:19:38 AM
The real question here is: Are we going to have a COVID-19 100k party?

Looks like tomorrow's going to be the day and it's a Saturday which is great for all of us wage slaves...

A 100K COVID-19 party is probably only relevant for early adopters. In order to be a really life changing event for me I would say COVID-19 would need to reach at least 10M-100M... but with a steady exponential increase I think it is maybe doable.
506  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2020, 08:44:37 PM
Do you guys know any good writers/editors who work for coin?

Maybe I am wrong, but I think nutildah does that.
507  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
via Imgflip Meme Generator

Aaaaaaand how to explain this one at home?  Roll Eyes

Funny. But Fake.
508  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2020, 08:21:11 PM
Risk is a statistical measure, e.g. the expected loss of a strategy, asset or portfolio.

Not quite. Its the probability that a gain or a loss will differ significantly from what is expected.

This debate caught my interest, so I've looked through Wikipedia and glanced through Investopedia, but I haven't found an unequivocal statement about risk being a probability (pure number) or an expectation (currency units). No clear cut equation anywhere. Some pages say only downside enters the calculation, which would make a negative outcome impossible.

As a layman, I'm left thinking that the unqualified term 'risk' isn't well suited to numerical discussion. Other more precisely defined quantities might be better for that.


This:

Quote
In risk analysis, risk is traditionally defined as a function of probability and impact. The probability is the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences, to which extent the project is affected by an event, are the impacts of risk.

It's very "numerical"... but, of course, the subjectivity lies on assigning proper values for both probability and impact.
509  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2020, 09:21:10 AM
If the real shit happens you'll need a property of land to be able to produce food. Stocking food for 1 month lasts only for 1 month. What if things last longer? Well in that case you would depend on your governments. I hope everything will be fine and we won't need that.

It would be more practical and cost effective for most just to stock 1 year supply of tinned food. If real shit happens, and goes for that long, you plantation will probably be raided by hordes of hungry and violent people way sooner.

Many assumptions that people do make when they consider some sort of "real shit" scenario are wrong or not the really shitty scenario conditions. Ie: Will you have enough water supply to keep growing your veggies? Food to feed your livestock? Will you be able to protect your "land"?

So Keep it simple: Have resources ready to use that don't depend on external resources or conditions. Tin food is probably the best and you have ages to consume it even if you overstock. So no real extra cost here. Heck, maybe you will even manage to get a quantity discount!

Anyway, I still think this levels of paranoia are too much unjustified... but if you want to be "prepped", do it the right way. The simpler the better.
510  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2020, 06:47:29 AM
Interesting.

Quote
Despite $BTC's recent price drop, its hashrate has hit ATH and continues to climb.

#Bitcoin's impending halving is getting closer each day, how do you expect price to react?

Read about Bitcoin & its diversification properties in portfolio management. Flecha hacia abajo
https://research.binance.com/analysis/bitcoin-diversification-benefits



Source: https://twitter.com/BinanceResearch/status/1234311320620584960

I am not an expert here, but Antminer launched for general public availability a new miner recently.
They might have been using it undercover and now that's available the difficulty is deemed to rise further.
Bitmain Announces Specs for Next-gen Antminer S19 and S19 Pro Coming Soon

Yup, that's a plausible explanation. It's nice seeing how, even with the halving so near, the mining industry (providers and miners) keep investing betting on a post-halving price rise. Even if most of the hashrate increase is coming from more efficient devices it must be taken into account that in order to get a positive ROI not only electricity and operational costs need to be taken into account to calculate cost of mining, but also the investment in those new devices.

Of course the cost (per produced unit) for Bitmain itself is probably very low plus they have to make sure to raise the global hashrate to "force" other miners to buy their improved devices if they want to keep in the game. BUt there's no reason to think that "trick" won't keep working as always have.
511  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2020, 06:20:34 AM
IF Bitcoin would ever become a recognised reserve currency a lot of years will be needed and a LOT of obstacles would need to be overcome. It is true a long way has already already come, but an even longer remains. So any price predictions that depend on that will still have to wait a good amount of years to materialise. Without that, those price predictions of $400K for the next few years seem bonkers to me, and even a $100K price target in 2-3 years it's still no more than a (plausible) dream.

That being said, I really, really, hope to be proved wrong and make me (incredibly) happy Smiley

On other news, it looks like $8.5K keeps holding. This is fine.

On yet another news:

- Today the figure of 7000 Bitcoin ATM's worldwide will be reached. It has grown from 6326 at 1 jan 2020. That is an average of 337 new installations for each of the first two months of the year. At this current rate it would reach the nice round number of 10000 before EOY. This is fine, very fine.

- LN nodes keep rising in number albeit slowly with 11624 right now.

For any of the above to exponentially rise, something really disruptive would need to happen, like a major traditional ATM provider adding crypto support or some advances on LN neutrino (or similar) so that it can be smoothly run in smartphones. The first one I see it coming sometime soon, not so sure about the second one since I think for LN usage custodial LN wallets are a more practical way to go.
512  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2020, 08:42:16 PM
I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.

Hope they do realise some day though.

So what is your prediction? 10-12K at the time of halving what about 2021-2022? Sideways?  Grin

No, it could reasonably be $50K. Maybe more, maybe less. I just say that $100K is probably too much to consider as a reasonable probability. Again, not impossible, depending if Bitcoin is able to regain something similar to 2017 FOMO, but even if that were the case I would not take $100K for granted.

In fact I would prefer a more organic and sustainable $50K than a "fomo" peak to $100K.
513  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2020, 07:42:01 PM
I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.

Hope they do realise some day though.

$100k might be not possible in 1-2 years, but touching $50,000 at least once by the end of 2021 still looks quite possible to me.

That sounds way more reasonable yeah. Wouldn't be surprised at all if that were to happen even if it is still just a "dream" to me.

And I am not saying $100K is not possible in 1-2 years. Of course it is. It just seems improbable to me. Hope to be wrong though.
514  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2020, 07:20:57 PM
I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.

Hope they do realise some day though.
515  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2020, 04:21:41 AM
... somehow isolate from the grid...

OK, I'm going to just give up and be snarky, it is an AMAZING new technology



BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!

THEY ARE CONTROLLED BY ROBOTS NOW!!!



living in the future man

That's funny... But what does the Tesla exactly do differently so that it is LEGAL to run an on-grid solar installation during a blackout while other systems do require to be automatically shut down on blackout? It's not that those could not have a relay to cut from the grid until the power comes back.
Probably it is fed by a breaker from the main box, and powers a second breaker panel downstream. In that sense it's just a big UPS, you hook your critical loads to the breakers attached to the unit, and when power goes out it continues to feed them.

Just like a big UPS.

For that no anti-islanding is needed. Sunny boy grid tie inverters are a different thing because they *can* backfeed the grid. Thus they need circuitry inside themselves to note when the grid is down and shut themselves off (usually because they suddenly see the 120 volts dropping like a rock as your little panels try to power the neighborhood. Not going to happen :-)

Nice. "anti-islanding"... that's the word I needed to search for more information. Yeah it is basically like you are describing. I guess it's not only a "tesla" feature, even though only a few hybrid inverters seem to support that configuration... which is weird because it is so simply but... Also I am not fully sure if that configuration is allowed in all countries. For example here there is a clear legal distinction between on-grid and off-grid systems, with different requisites.

Reducing the electricity bill is good but... (IMHO) the main advantage of having a solar installation is to have a fully sustainable (even if at reduced "service") home so a system with anti-islanding almost make no sense... Well, no more sense than any other 5-10% ROI investment that is...

Batteries like the tesla are way too expensive yet though. I wonder if they will reduce in price at the same rate than solar panels in the next few years.
516  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 29, 2020, 10:16:39 PM
You are correct, it’s undersize.  But in economic terms, the grid is a much cheaper and bigger battery for normal everyday household consumption given current feed in tariffs.  

The battery is more about energy security.  Keep in mind most solar will be cut off when the grid goes down. People won’t be able to generate at all because the utility shuts down their solar remotely to stop them exporting.   The Tesla has a gateway to allow you to generate behind the battery.

Is that legal somehow? How does it work? Does it inject to a completely different line in your house or is able to somehow isolate from the grid so that no electricity is injected back?

Have you considered installing one of those cheap small aircon split unit (one with 1kw max) in at least one room, ie the bedroom, so in case of a blackout you have some air conditioning at least? Obviously your 7kw central unit is a no-go without the grid and that is probably the only thing missing in your nice setup.

The gateway sits between the battery/solar and the meter.  So the meter never sees electricity which is produced by the panels and stored by the battery or consumed by the house. In a power cut the gateway closes, and production can continue behind the gateway.  

It’s signed off by the installer and inspected by the utility so completely legal (although US may be different).

I don’t understand air conditioner ratings. Our main system is rated 1800 watt but pulls 6kw.  Wtf?  Can someone with more electrical knowledge than me explain how this works?

We have a few smaller splits but they aren’t that small. They will still pull 2 - 3kw each.


interesting, so it does the same that other systems could do, but it is legal. I would assume it is just that in your country you can do that, but you also mentioned that most systems can't generate during a blackout.. So I guess it is something about the Tesla, or the way it does... or just that they have certified that it is safe and other don't.

About the aircon... what do you mean pull? You mean you checked with a meter it does consume 6kw instead of 1.8kw?

If not, you need to consider that heat pumps have an efficiency of around 3.5x, which means that with a 1.8KW in electricity they could produce 6.3kw of heat. Your numbers might vary depending on specs and some other factors, etc... but somehow fit your figures.

If the 6kw figure is what you have metered it is consuming in electricity... then a picture of the spec label might help here.

2-3kw splits looks like way too much for a room. Now I am starting to think you refer to the output and not the electricity input. Unless your rooms are HUGE or you live in a ridiculously extreme climate place.
517  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 29, 2020, 09:55:57 PM
... somehow isolate from the grid...

OK, I'm going to just give up and be snarky, it is an AMAZING new technology



BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!

THEY ARE CONTROLLED BY ROBOTS NOW!!!



living in the future man

That's funny... But what does the Tesla exactly do differently so that it is LEGAL to run an on-grid solar installation during a blackout while other systems do require to be automatically shut down on blackout? It's not that those could not have a relay to cut from the grid until the power comes back.
518  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 29, 2020, 09:41:28 PM
You are correct, it’s undersize.  But in economic terms, the grid is a much cheaper and bigger battery for normal everyday household consumption given current feed in tariffs.  

The battery is more about energy security.  Keep in mind most solar will be cut off when the grid goes down. People won’t be able to generate at all because the utility shuts down their solar remotely to stop them exporting.   The Tesla has a gateway to allow you to generate behind the battery.

Is that legal somehow? How does it work? Does it inject to a completely different line in your house or is able to somehow isolate from the grid so that no electricity is injected back?

Have you considered installing one of those cheap small aircon split unit (one with 1kw max) in at least one room, ie the bedroom, so in case of a blackout you have some air conditioning at least? Obviously your 7kw central unit is a no-go without the grid and that is probably the only thing missing in your nice setup.
Actually a small window AC unit (5000 BTU) can be installed with only a few hundred watts. That can keep a room cool and since it's only for a few hours a day it's not as bad as the damn fridge.

Yup, small aircons are currently *very* efficient. In fact, even already having a central unit (which is way less efficient) it makes some sense to have one individual unit in the more used room:

1) If you have been away for long, you run both and help cool/heat the room way faster.
2) If you often only stay in that room, maybe you can just go with it, with a great cost saving instead of running the central unit.
3) In the case of a solar installation and a blackout, the small unit might be reasonable to use, while the central unit is way too much. Better some than nothing.

Maybe that is not really a critical thing in the case of a big blackout, but I don't think some added comfort, if possible, is gonna hurt.
519  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 29, 2020, 08:23:51 PM
You are correct, it’s undersize.  But in economic terms, the grid is a much cheaper and bigger battery for normal everyday household consumption given current feed in tariffs.  

The battery is more about energy security.  Keep in mind most solar will be cut off when the grid goes down. People won’t be able to generate at all because the utility shuts down their solar remotely to stop them exporting.   The Tesla has a gateway to allow you to generate behind the battery.

Is that legal somehow? How does it work? Does it inject to a completely different line in your house or is able to somehow isolate from the grid so that no electricity is injected back?

Have you considered installing one of those cheap small aircon split unit (one with 1kw max) in at least one room, ie the bedroom, so in case of a blackout you have some air conditioning at least? Obviously your 7kw central unit is a no-go without the grid and that is probably the only thing missing in your nice setup.
520  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2020, 04:37:13 PM
(Run your own DNS servers ffs)

Intriguing. I always pictured being a DNS server would require industrial grade infrastructure. Do you run a DNS server?

HEY! Maybe my Namecoin will be worth something someday. Smiley

A root dns yes. Mainly because it needs to service a BUNCH of requests/s and also needs to have a BUNCH of zones loaded on RAM for easy access. But if you think about your own internal DNS as some sort of proxy that only have loaded some zones and caches all the rest, that is enough for breaking the relationship between your actual browsing and your (public) dns requests. DNS infrastructure has always been pretty much decentralised.
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