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1161
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 16, 2019, 07:27:14 PM
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A very discreet car to use it daily and that transmits good feeling is the Audi RS4. (Avant, better for me)
The B4 RS4 2.7T Avant was a beast for the day. I never got into the V8 version. Not even sure what is under the hood now? The new S series from Audi are introducing diesel engines again (at least in Europe). V6 3 liters, 350hp, tons of torque, hybrid systems.. blah blah. The worst part are the fake exhaust tips. Fire those engineers plz... Dunno about the RS´s. Hybrids are a waste of time. Part of the reason you go electric is to get rid of maintenance. A hybrid is the worst of both worlds. Either full electric or full gasoline - none of this half assed stuff. They exist to deceive people into thinking they are any better than full gasoline, they use tags like 'ECO' to make it seem it's such a great alternative but it's basically gasoline with some shitty ass battery. I run away any time I see an "ECO" label on anything. It usually means they are trying to sell me something overpriced, or inefficient, or impaired in some way... or make me work for free (recycling). Yet there must be people that seem to be attracted to that FUD or they wouldn't be marketing it... Go figure. I only care about the raw figures so that I can calculate myself if it fits my needs. They can stick all those tags up their ass. Oh well, enough grumpy rambling I guess.... |
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1162
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 16, 2019, 05:57:25 PM
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I couldn't quite figure out what was going on there, whether it was quasi ironic or not. You'd think someone who'd been around that long would be unphased by the same thing panning out again. Then again who am I to guess anyone else's triggers?
I'm totally reading between the lines here, I have no actual knowledge, totally guessing; My impression is that he over invested, FOMOing in with assets necessary for life support, then held through the peak. I don't know if his losses were purely of unrealized gains or of the actual sort, but regardless it hit him pretty hard as he had to sell to make RL commitments. About this time he also started experiencing health problems. I am totally speculating here, but would not be at all surprised if these were exacerbated by his level of stress and worry over the above. It is my earnest hope that he was able to reclaim at least part of his position near the lows, but if that were so one would think that we would have seen him by now... I miss him a lot Didn't know about the health issues. Also I always assumed he was more concerned about the unrealized gains being lost (what he once referenced as missing a life changing opportunity) than actual loses from initial investment. We all were impacted by missing the top and suffering the long and deep bear market... he seemed to be particularly affected at the end though. Yeah, also miss him a lot, he was fun and even when he was not in his best mood he was still enjoyable and a bright poster. Hope all is good with him and some day reappears as if nothing happened. I wonder how many good people we will lose over the years on the road to higher highs.... |
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1164
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin
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on: June 16, 2019, 04:31:35 PM
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Sorry, what is this thread about? See many HATs but can't follow maybe shortcut?  Dooglus updates the list with the 100 days highest price of Bitcoin here. Something that after quite a while has already happened again against some currencies. Top 100 day $ value is almost already there too (depending on the daily close price). If it closes above $9232 then it will be a top 100 day again. |
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1165
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 16, 2019, 02:52:41 PM
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It is reasonable to expect some pullback in July and August. But I sure as hell would not short this market or try to sell local tops.
Growth right now is nutty. The last time we saw this kind of trajectory on the logarithmic and it didn't follow through with an order of magnitude jump was back in 2012. Except, as much as I would love to see an order of magnitude jump, there are not enough historical data to assume it would be an anomaly if it didn't happen this time. We will see.... |
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1170
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 16, 2019, 12:13:53 AM
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I am not seeing any mention of Bitcoin in the mainstream media, which leads me to think the rally has some legs, ....before some kind of correction.
Good point. I guess there will be two moments in which they will start covering Bitcoin again, one when it raises over $10K and big time when it breaks past ATH. Other than that it is not as much mainstream "news". That being said I do expect plenty of corrections in the way up. Plus it is healthier that way. |
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1171
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 15, 2019, 11:18:30 PM
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Even though the massive hodlers of bitcoin who can buy a lambo is sitting pretty
Humblebragpost: Every once in a while, I see a Lambo while I'm out and about in Dallas. I don't absolutely LOVE them, don't hate them at all, but I'm more of an odd-duck, and consider them too gauché - preferring the refined subtleties of Porsche, or the gravitas and raw power of a MacLaren. Ferraris are right out. Yeah, that was the other thing I wanted to do post-halvening - Get a black MacLaren GT to take back and forth from the city to the ranch... in 2022ish... if everything aligns to plan... Dare to dream. I’m probably going to get a Rolls Royce or a Bentley, as you say, if everything aligns to plan. Always wanted an NYC apartment too. These things will be doable if we hit $100,000+ per coin. Obviously being financially sufficient, never working another day is the main goal but shit, I want & expect luxury with it too  Dare to dream indeed. Not sure you will be able to afford a Manhattan apartment even at $100K/btc... that's expensive shit yo In the order of the couple of millions plus ridiculous yearly taxes and shit... for something not that big nor luxurious except for the placement. I mean unless you want to use most of your stash for acquiring / maintaining it. Plus you won't be able to use it for more than a few months a year.... you could rent it when not using it though... maybe a good investment. It's funny (not so much) how when you grow a few steps higher in your net worth only to discover the next steps in the ladder come at an exponentially higher cost. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Time ) Being financially sufficient for life is my main goal too. That might be doable. I am going to put LFC in the approaching 100BTC ballpark/arena;... (no need to agree or admit to anything), but assuming 100BTC, and assuming that you would need a few million in extra cash to comfortably maintain such a location, you seem to be correct that $100k BTC would be barely achieving such objective in a comfortable and non-worry way. Furthermore, I think that it is a bit problematic for any BTC HODLer to count on any kind of meaningful BTC price stability in the coming years, and I believe that is part of the reason that LFC and some other regular WO participants presume that they are going to have to cash out a decent amount of their BTC stash in order to achieve some of their material objectives.. and whether they are presuming too much or NOT could be a lesson in frustration and futility to them, if they are thinking that they are going to have enough value to achieve all of their objectives in a kind of comfortable and calm way - which also implies a decent amount of cushion to prepare for both ongoing volatility in bitcoin and other unexpected aspects of living expenses (which actually some of the unexpected needs to be planned for - which causes it to be a kind of expected unexpected). I am assuming a lower round figure than that one you are using here. Either 60 or 50, maybe even 75 at most. Obviously this is mere speculation and might perfectly be way wrong or based on bogus information (which is perfectly fine and a good opsec measure... we could all be lying in the hints being given here). In fact, at $100K * 100BTC is ten millions, which might be the starting point in which an apartment in manhattan might start to not sound so much extravagant. At least a basic one. More so considering apartments in manhattan have never been a bad investment. But yeah, even less than 100BTC and it is too much extravagance for a "third" home (unless you are american you can't really reside there for long). Perfectly OK for a primary residence, which is not the case of LFC. This is basically the same as the "lambo" thing... which I would consider extravagant until a point where your net worth is 10x-100x-1000x the cost of the car. Unless it is your fucking main dream in life, in which case the ratio could be lower. YMMV. Anyway, we all have dreams and that's good. I try to keep mine not too high to avoid frustration, but that's just me and my current circumstances. Again YMMV. |
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1172
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 15, 2019, 10:29:39 PM
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Do you think shorts/long ratio (or absolute amounts of shorts/longs) has any impact on bitcoin price?
Yes they do. But you can't really act on that data alone. I mean, when there is a lot of shorts and some strong enough buying pressure happens the liquidations throw the price way higher. But you don't know if/when the buying pressure is gonna happen... especially not when you are seeing just the contrary (lots of shorters). The only time is when it comes useful to know the shorts/longs ratio is when the price is pumping and there is still a lot of shorters.... then you know the rekt is coming. |
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1173
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 15, 2019, 10:26:43 PM
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.. which may or may not play out.
exactly say I had managed to time the top and got out at 17.5 last time, which would have been a pretty good trick to hit that 5 day window, sure as shit it would have run to 45 and this dip would have bottomed at 18. That's why selling at the right time is so hard (last time it could have easily been either 15K or 30K). OR... it could have never dropped below $10K (which is where I failed in my expectation) and start rising from there. Even if you sell some at the top, it is highly likely you rebuy at the next dip (which is still close to the top). |
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1174
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 15, 2019, 09:27:46 PM
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Even though the massive hodlers of bitcoin who can buy a lambo is sitting pretty
Humblebragpost: Every once in a while, I see a Lambo while I'm out and about in Dallas. I don't absolutely LOVE them, don't hate them at all, but I'm more of an odd-duck, and consider them too gauché - preferring the refined subtleties of Porsche, or the gravitas and raw power of a MacLaren. Ferraris are right out. Yeah, that was the other thing I wanted to do post-halvening - Get a black MacLaren GT to take back and forth from the city to the ranch... in 2022ish... if everything aligns to plan... Dare to dream. I’m probably going to get a Rolls Royce or a Bentley, as you say, if everything aligns to plan. Always wanted an NYC apartment too. These things will be doable if we hit $100,000+ per coin. Obviously being financially sufficient, never working another day is the main goal but shit, I want & expect luxury with it too Dare to dream indeed. Not sure you will be able to afford a Manhattan apartment even at $100K/btc... that's expensive shit yo In the order of the couple of millions plus ridiculous yearly taxes and shit... for something not that big nor luxurious except for the placement. I mean unless you want to use most of your stash for acquiring / maintaining it. Plus you won't be able to use it for more than a few months a year.... you could rent it when not using it though... maybe a good investment. It's funny (not so much) how when you grow a few steps higher in your net worth only to discover the next steps in the ladder come at an exponentially higher cost. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Time ) Being financially sufficient for life is my main goal too. That might be doable. |
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1175
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 15, 2019, 11:14:01 AM
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The thing is... What really matters are not ATH but bottoms. I mean, reaching or even surpassing some arbitrary utopian figure like $100K would be awesome but... unless one plans to sell it all/most trying to catch the ATH -which is risky business in itself- what really will count in the long term is how high the bottom afterwards will be.
Why do I say this? Because I think I am starting to delude myself into thinking that the next bottom will be high enough that I won't care about the correction/crash and not having sold at the top. Yes, I am thinking/hoping not only the next ATH is sky high, but the bottom is over the previous ATH ($19K). Something that will probably be the same mistake I did the last couple of times. And I will regret later.
But why am I posting this? I don't know, I am just thinking out loud.
#thelifeofthehodler
A part answer/question thrown into the ring. Its good to question your approach and strategy in all things really but it is especially important when dealing with financial instruments of any type. Trying to time or catching tops or bottoms is a dangerous game. Having goals or definitive targets takes most of these worries away imho. How you structure your DCA or laddering is a purely personal endeavor and should be set up with flexibility in mind. You should review said plan as often as you feel the need but deviating from your target or goals should only happen in extreme need. In other words, you seem to have a plan and are following it. Stick it out. Not sure this qualifies as an answer but there you go. Now...the question. Port Control is requesting detailed clarification on your capitulation status...for science.  #GAINZCORPThe biggest flaw of my plan is that what I really would like is not selling, or at least not any substantial amount just because I feel the top is near... So that means having to stomach a huge correction afterwards. It is always like that and I see no reason to expect differently this time. I have a lot to think about what I should/will do. There is time.... In regards to my "capitulation" status I got rid of it at around $5K+ IIRC, after I saw the good reaction after the first dip. That was what signaled the change for me. I do think we are in a long term bull market. Other than that I just hodl, as always. |
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1176
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 15, 2019, 04:39:09 AM
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The thing is... What really matters are not ATH but bottoms. I mean, reaching or even surpassing some arbitrary utopian figure like $100K would be awesome but... unless one plans to sell it all/most trying to catch the ATH -which is risky business in itself- what really will count in the long term is how high the bottom afterwards will be.
Why do I say this? Because I think I am starting to delude myself into thinking that the next bottom will be high enough that I won't care about the correction/crash and not having sold at the top. Yes, I am thinking/hoping not only the next ATH is sky high, but the bottom is over the previous ATH ($19K). Something that will probably be the same mistake I did the last couple of times. And I will regret later.
But why am I posting this? I don't know, I am just thinking out loud.
#thelifeofthehodler
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1179
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Local / Mercado y Economía / Re: Regulación Bitcoin y Criptomonedas en España
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on: June 14, 2019, 05:01:56 PM
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Exacto, si alguien se limita a comprar y mantener no hay ningún problema ni nada que declarar (por mucho que lo hayan detectado por las transferencias de depósito y hayan activado el aviso, que es sólo eso, un aviso/recordatorio).
El problema está en:
1) El trading...
2) Tener bien justificadas las compras y el origen de los fondos o se puede considerar un incremento patrimonial injustificado cuando se venda en un futuro.
En esos dos puntos pueden hacer mucho, mucho daño.
Con las acciones cotizadas, teniendo prácticamente la misma consideración, todo es mucho más sencillo porque los propios brokers/bancos transmiten los datos a hacienda y ya te suelen aparecer en el borrador lo que facilita bastante la tarea.
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