Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitserve]

IF Bitcoin would ever become a recognised reserve currency a lot of years will be needed and a LOT of obstacles would need to be overcome. It is true a long way has already already come, but an even longer remains. So any price predictions that depend on that will still have to wait a good amount of years to materialise. Without that, those price predictions of $400K for the next few years seem bonkers to me, and even a $100K price target in 2-3 years it's still no more than a (plausible) dream.

That being said, I really, really, hope to be proved wrong and make me (incredibly) happy

On other news, it looks like $8.5K keeps holding. This is fine.

On yet another news:

- Today the figure of 7000 Bitcoin ATM's worldwide will be reached. It has grown from 6326 at 1 jan 2020. That is an average of 337 new installations for each of the first two months of the year. At this current rate it would reach the nice round number of 10000 before EOY. This is fine, very fine.

- LN nodes keep rising in number albeit slowly with 11624 right now.

For any of the above to exponentially rise, something really disruptive would need to happen, like a major traditional ATM provider adding crypto support or some advances on LN neutrino (or similar) so that it can be smoothly run in smartphones. The first one I see it coming sometime soon, not so sure about the second one since I think for LN usage custodial LN wallets are a more practical way to go.

[fillippone]

Interesting.

Despite $BTC's recent price drop, its hashrate has hit ATH and continues to climb.

#Bitcoin's impending halving is getting closer each day, how do you expect price to react?

Read about Bitcoin & its diversification properties in portfolio management. Flecha hacia abajo
https://research.binance.com/analysis/bitcoin-diversification-benefits

Source: https://twitter.com/BinanceResearch/status/1234311320620584960

I am not an expert here, but Antminer launched for general public availability a new miner recently.
They might have been using it undercover and now that's available the difficulty is deemed to rise further.
Bitmain Announces Specs for Next-gen Antminer S19 and S19 Pro Coming Soon

[akhjob]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/fbevx8/netflix_serie_altered_carbon_2_is_showing_bitcoin

In the Netflix Series, Altered carbon, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are shown in the price tag of some products.

[bitserve]

Interesting.

Despite $BTC's recent price drop, its hashrate has hit ATH and continues to climb.

#Bitcoin's impending halving is getting closer each day, how do you expect price to react?

Read about Bitcoin & its diversification properties in portfolio management. Flecha hacia abajo
https://research.binance.com/analysis/bitcoin-diversification-benefits

Source: https://twitter.com/BinanceResearch/status/1234311320620584960

I am not an expert here, but Antminer launched for general public availability a new miner recently.
They might have been using it undercover and now that's available the difficulty is deemed to rise further.
Bitmain Announces Specs for Next-gen Antminer S19 and S19 Pro Coming Soon

Yup, that's a plausible explanation. It's nice seeing how, even with the halving so near, the mining industry (providers and miners) keep investing betting on a post-halving price rise. Even if most of the hashrate increase is coming from more efficient devices it must be taken into account that in order to get a positive ROI not only electricity and operational costs need to be taken into account to calculate cost of mining, but also the investment in those new devices.

Of course the cost (per produced unit) for Bitmain itself is probably very low plus they have to make sure to raise the global hashrate to "force" other miners to buy their improved devices if they want to keep in the game. BUt there's no reason to think that "trick" won't keep working as always have.

[OutOfMemory]

Too far behind to even try to catch up, but I have a little something for you that might explain the rapid spread in Iran. Apparently it's a thing in Iran to lick sacred places and the government aren't shutting them down.
Video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1233783635007954949

Saw this too. Unbelievable. They even believe in the "healing power" of licking the shrine.
I consider this as an example of Darwin's Law. Some cultures are just too dumb to succeed (EDIT: and/or survive).
Reminds me of flat earthers a little.

I can think of a couple sacred places I'd like to lick.

I went to an alleyway on the outskirts of Rome and paid off a member of the Swiss Guard for a ten minute play with this.



I could taste some thrush, a hint of swarfega and a whole lot of crystal meth so I'm pretty goddamn confident it was pulled straight off the pope in his sleep.

Almost always i read something like this from you, i have to compulsively think about Patrick Bateman. #nohomo
Btw: The movie is like an audiovisual sleeping pill, compared to the novel, imo.

Coronavirus update:

... (more unconvenient news)

The chinese government seems to have some success in limiting the outbreak applying strict measures.
I don't see much of a chance for the rest of the world, excluding north korea and russia. I refer to Darwin's Law again.
My last hope is that the virus doesn't survive summer's sun ultraviolet radiation levels (like SARS).
However, my UV-C equipment is set up and ready. It can decontaminate a whole room and every surface within that is reached by its light, in a matter of minutes, without the side effect of producing ozone. My health now only relies on family members that have to go to work or school. Everything else is manageable by using soap and proper hand washing techniques. As a person with hyper-reactive immune system, i have to take stronger measures each winter, i'm already used to that by now.

Dramatic drop in levels of air pollution after closing down China's factories.

The bright side of the two-sided-medal.

[nutildah]

Been thinking about it a bit more. Bitcoin does not produce anything. There is no dependency on any supply chain being functional or not. Dumping your precious bitcoins like a company stock because of a non computer virus makes absolutely no sense. It is an irrational decision unless your purpose is to try an buy them back cheaper, and we all know how that worked out over the last 10+ years for Joe Average.

The problem is that a fair amount of BTC is owned or at least manipulated by Wall Street and large institutions like Bakkt and the CME. Wall Street views bitcoin has an extremely high risk asset, meaning it is the first asset to get sold off whenever there is a panic of sorts. Only after Wall Street has minimized its involvement with BTC and regular folks feel comfortable with their amount of fiat money will BTC's price begin to stabilize.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but that's what I believe.

And that is where sellers of any size are wrong.

First volatility != risk. Retail investors often act emotional (the human monkey brain has a hard time dealing with ‘losing’) but institutions/algorithms know better. Bitcoin until today is volatile in only one direction: up. It is therefore more likely institutions involved in Bitcoin are selling to compensate for their recent losses in stocks, which is probably why gold went down as well after its multi year high: profit taking.

Second Bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset. It does not care about China, the stock market, covid-19, or even bitebits posting in the WO. Selling bitcoins for any other reason than permanently getting out is stupidity and you will get burnt, whether you are Wall Street or Joe Average.

The <=2015 days when Bitcoin actually was a risky investment are long gone. To those who did I salute you.

Volatility absolutely equals risk. That's what makes risky asset categories risky. High risk, high reward. If an asset simply rises, that's not volatility -- that's stability. However, bitcoin doesn't do that. Previous to cryptocurrency, Wall Street's highest risk asset category was emerging markets, for the exact same reason: they are highly volatile.

Traditionally, there has been zero correlation between BTC in the stock market; however, the stock market has been in a bull run for almost the entirety of bitcoin's existence, and Wall Street only started really getting into bitcoin in the last couple years. We have yet to see how bitcoin will react to a bear stock market.

[AlcoHoDL]

I can think of a couple sacred places I'd like to lick.

I went to an alleyway on the outskirts of Rome and paid off a member of the Swiss Guard for a ten minute play with this.



I could taste some thrush, a hint of swarfega and a whole lot of crystal meth so I'm pretty goddamn confident it was pulled straight off the pope in his sleep.

Yuck! I wouldn't touch a woman wearing this shit.

Got to keep things simple guys. That f*cking hanging thing spoiled it for me.

Nothing like a Sloggi sprinkled with baby powder.

[AlcoHoDL]

Reverting back to my $\leq$ 4-digit hat... Rules are rules. We have stayed under $9000 for too long. Unfortunately, the heavily low-pass filtered hysteresis algorithm has been triggered!

Looking forward to being in orange again.

[El duderino_]

Reverting back to my $\leq$ 4-digit hat... Rules are rules. We have stayed under $9000 for too long. Unfortunately, the heavily low-pass filtered hysteresis algorithm has been triggered!

Looking forward to being in orange again.

I understand that..... would live to wear my 15K hat once again as well

Though please never anymore say in the open that a “sloggi” is the sh*t for woman to wear.....

There are plenty of better brands for woman to wear 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

100k=minimum. 400k=aspiration.

[machasm]

Oh the irony

https://mysticpost.com/2020/03/coronavirus-the-healing-sanctuary-of-lourdes-closes-the-pools-to-the-faithful-for-fear-of-contagion/

[HairyMaclairy]

Yes holy water being drained in churches too

WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?

[Gyrsur]

WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?

which one? Names pls.

[OutOfMemory]

WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?

which one? Names pls.

JHW of course, ya noob  

Choose between these two possible translations:

JEHOWA = "He, who is"

JAHWE = "All there is"

A tip from the school of Yedi:

Choose wisely, young padawan.

A tip from me:
The original wiseasses of the church made the wrong choice.

Other than this, after zooming a little, this looks like a clean, round bottom to me (insert perfrect female butt pic here).

[dragonvslinux]

Starting to see a rounding bottom half formed on the 4hr. The green arrow is where the pivot is could be based, the golden line would be the trajectory to hold to confirm:



Looking at the longer-term time-frames, the Weekly is finding support at key support, the Daily is losing bearish momentum:

[/charts]

BTFD & HODL

[bitebits]

Been thinking about it a bit more. Bitcoin does not produce anything. There is no dependency on any supply chain being functional or not. Dumping your precious bitcoins like a company stock because of a non computer virus makes absolutely no sense. It is an irrational decision unless your purpose is to try an buy them back cheaper, and we all know how that worked out over the last 10+ years for Joe Average.

The problem is that a fair amount of BTC is owned or at least manipulated by Wall Street and large institutions like Bakkt and the CME. Wall Street views bitcoin has an extremely high risk asset, meaning it is the first asset to get sold off whenever there is a panic of sorts. Only after Wall Street has minimized its involvement with BTC and regular folks feel comfortable with their amount of fiat money will BTC's price begin to stabilize.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but that's what I believe.

And that is where sellers of any size are wrong.

First volatility != risk. Retail investors often act emotional (the human monkey brain has a hard time dealing with ‘losing’) but institutions/algorithms know better. Bitcoin until today is volatile in only one direction: up. It is therefore more likely institutions involved in Bitcoin are selling to compensate for their recent losses in stocks, which is probably why gold went down as well after its multi year high: profit taking.

Second Bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset. It does not care about China, the stock market, covid-19, or even bitebits posting in the WO. Selling bitcoins for any other reason than permanently getting out is stupidity and you will get burnt, whether you are Wall Street or Joe Average.

The <=2015 days when Bitcoin actually was a risky investment are long gone. To those who did I salute you.

Volatility absolutely equals risk. That's what makes risky asset categories risky. High risk, high reward. If an asset simply rises, that's not volatility -- that's stability. However, bitcoin doesn't do that. Previous to cryptocurrency, Wall Street's highest risk asset category was emerging markets, for the exact same reason: they are highly volatile.

Traditionally, there has been zero correlation between BTC in the stock market; however, the stock market has been in a bull run for almost the entirety of bitcoin's existence, and Wall Street only started really getting into bitcoin in the last couple years. We have yet to see how bitcoin will react to a bear stock market.

I think you got things backwards. A high risk investment it is often volatile, price volatility however does not equal risk. Bitcoin is the most stable thing around, 99.9+% uptime. Selling bitcoin because it exists in an unstable world makes no sense to me. It is like selling my paid off house because of a virus or stock market decline, the two are completely unrelated.

Agree interesting how Bitcoin plays out over the next decade or two. I will be around.

[Gyrsur]

WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?

which one? Names pls.

JHW of course, ya noob  

it says:

יהוה

Dude!  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetragrammaton

[OutOfMemory]

WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?

which one? Names pls.

JHW of course, ya noob  

it says:

יהוה

Dude!  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetragrammaton

Of course, i presented kind of a modernised representation. Didn't want to throw full hardcore at you, but i see i can't add anything of value for you now.
"I am that i am" is also the far better translation, forgive my sloppiness. 

[dragonvslinux]

Starting to see a rounding bottom half formed on the 4hr. The green arrow is where the pivot is could be based, the golden line would be the trajectory to hold to confirm:

Some more hopium for the day looking at the 1 hr...



Ideally; test 200 Day MA today & get rejected, find support from rounding bottom support, break above 200 Day MA, find support again from it/rounding bottom, move up higher  

[Gyrsur]

WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?

which one? Names pls.

JHW of course, ya noob  

it says:

יהוה

Dude!  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetragrammaton

Of course, i presented kind of a modernised representation. Didn't want to throw full hardcore at you, but i see i can't add anything of value for you now.
"I am that i am" is also the far better translation, forgive my sloppiness. 

Peace be with you.  #nohomo

OoM (Out of Merit) btw.