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BCH up a spike of 9.6% or so as I write, but I could find no news.
Too bad I only have some $20 worth...
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... Last time I looked at coinatmradar.com I saw no Bitcoin ATMs located in Germany. "BTMs" might help make ordinary Germans more aware of Bitcoin and more interested in exploring the BTC Ecosystem. Are there any plans to put BTMs in Germany? That would be a nice step as well (especially if merchants start accepting BTC). |
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You are lucky just to be born in a nice country, I wont disagree but also mostly to get as far as billions takes more. A lucky start can be ruined by poor actions and the need to do nothing as they are already rich, I think mostly anyone who increases their wealth by that extent is likely created their own good luck by building on wealth with good actions.
Most people born into comfort lack the drive to build on good fortune and turn it into a massive amount. Its probably not a great coindence that Warren Buffet grew up in the great depression, he cites alot of influences but he must have seen alot of failures in his community before recognising a profitable firm.
Its also pretty cliche the rich child who wastes it all. A good risk taker understands when he is lucky and when to take the winnings off the table, an ungrateful person does not know the true worth to many things and loses alot of it like sand through the fingers :p
Yes, there is much that seems correct in what you write. Hard work, proper assessment of risks, personality (and other characteristics of many rich people, both that I know and have read about) all matter a lot. The converse is also true, that many who are comfortable at birth or young typically lack the drive to exceed "bigly". Also, yes re your observation that a canny person who had some luck will "take some off the table" after a windfall. Yet, such a "canny" person may not go on to become a billionaire... (Taleb mentions dentists who do pretty well, but do not become really, really rich). In my own case I was born into a rich country, and even to a reasonably well-off family. THAT was luck. Not very many people are lucky in that way. |
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It is always good to see the numbers of bitcoin ATM increasing constantly in different parts of continents around the world, because there will be more and more people who will take notice of bitcoin whenever they walk past a bitcoin ATM, and people who are starting to get interested in bitcoin might even spend some of their own money to purchase bitcoin for the first time in their life.
Yes, well put, + 1. Over the past year or so I am seeing not only more BTMs, but some offering new features. I too hope fees will come down, but remember that the owners of those machines must drive by to take cash out of the machines and that they must pay "rent" to the store owner and maintain their machines, all of which costs money... |
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Excellent thread.
Historically, financial crises do come +/- every 10 years or so, but their worst effects (which countries suffer the most, how damaging each is, etc.) vary quite a bit.
Rogoff and Reinhardt "wrote the book" on financial crises over the past 800 years: This Time is Different. Highly recommended.
In general each of us can stay safe by:
1) diversifying the assets we hold (so CA$H on hand, land, gold, crypto, stocks & bonds are all good).
2) many people do not handle debt well (my wife & I hate debt), so my general advice is to lower debt levels.
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Anyone parking their retirement funds in this at this stage is a twat.
I am a twat. Twat #2 checking in.  If 1% of my net is in BTC (if 1% counts), then Twat #4 dropping by. If someone only has 1% in Bitcoin, then the downside is very limited. Should BTC go to, say, $40,000, then that 1% changes to around 5%. That risk:reward profile looks pretty good to me. |
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... I am re-reading N N Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness. Taleb is probably an even more influential thinker than Martin Armstrong. The book is the one he wrote before writing his most famous book: The Black Swan. He is the guy who made the "Black Swan" idea famous. His main theme in the book I am reading again is that random events are MUCH more important than is generally credited, even by "experts". Drop by my thread about Taleb's book and feel free to discuss his ideas as many of you have done re Martin Armstrong. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4952382.new#new/end threadjack |
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an important author best known for making the phrase "Black Swan" famous, a Black Swan is a low probability event, that also is unpredictable yet has a huge impact. Perhaps the best example of a Black Swan is September 11, 2001. In fact, his most famous book is The Black Swan, the book I would like to introduce is his just-prior book, Fooled by Randomness.
Taleb is of Lebanese-Greek-Orthodox origin, his family was in Lebanon for centuries and came to accumulate wealth and political power there. The Lebanese Civil War wiped out most of their wealth. N. N. Taleb now lives in New York, he has been a professor and had many years as an independent quantitative trader.
* * *
Perhaps the main theme of his book is that randomness is much more prevalent in the world (including and especially in financial markets) than almost everybody recognizes. This is, well, a bias that most of us are not aware of. There is an over-rating of "experts", and an under-rating of careful planning (by investment managers say) to avoid disasters that come along, especially among money managers.
He discusses this range of topics from a probabilistic standpoint.
I am only at Page 71 of re-reading this important book. I needed to get back up to speed on these ideas... Among topics I have read about today:
-- all bubbles are pretty much the same. A look back at history, along with some introspection and observation today suggest that we are in one (a BIG ONE) today
-- old ideas are generally better than new ones...
-- "Survivor Bias" makes the averages (eg Dow Jones Industrial Average) look better than it really is, the DJIA drops dying companies...
-- Beware of experts and journalists...
Many more not listed here.
* * *
I invite everyone to explore some of these ideas, perhaps along the lines of the Martin Armstrong thread.
And, I urge those of you with interest in any of the above ideas to read his book!
Highly Recommended
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The scariest part of this drop is that there isn't even any major FUD driving it. It's not like last time where there was the China ban and Gox and major exchange issues happening left and right. The drop is just happening naturally on it's own. What is going to happen when the real FUD begins?
Parelleling this phenomena is the continiously unanimous bullishness in the forum. Charts always with some upwards plot and bulls popping champagne and posting rockets every time there is a 5% rise, and circle jerking eachother 'oh yes that's a great analysis, just how I see it. excellent work. and things will be even more bullish after XYZ conference. we could take this further and add an extra digit or two.' (as the bottom is being challenged on low volume)
I could see this coming from a mile away because bitcoin is just a derivative of the dollar. When browsing random crap on Amazon lately, I noticed that every single manufacturer of several products were all having to slash prices big in order to try and move anything, indicating the mainstream consumer is completely tapped out and we're tilting back towards deflationary collapse again. Also, places like Bank of America just added a $10 a month fee just to have a checking account there, indicating banks are losing money and desperate too. So yea, probably get ready for the next 2008 soon. Contrary to random noob's opinions on this forum, bitcoin cannot be pump and dumped in the middle of a deflationary collapse since all it is is a dollar derivative, while also being a high risk asset and miles away from the base of Exter's Pyramid. HODLing crypto and gold seems to be the right answer. Diversification and all. NO ONE knows what the future will bring. Hedge accordingly. What if we live in a inverse Exter 's pyramid time? I think you are mistaking this one Roach. In the run up to the crisis, yes BTC will suffer. But then it will inverse, just as precious ones... . |
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My experiences with PrivCoin.io have all been excellent. Their service works just fine, both for BTC and BCH.
Although they told me they now are closed for investment, they kept their promise in regards to my earlier participation.
Highly recommended.
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Merited. Your material has always been of high quality and of real intellectual interest. Even if I like gold as well as my BTC and BCH! |
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Here's my way of looking at this:
(1) If a coin has been around for a couple of years or so, AND the market capital is over $1 bn, then it's probably OK.
(2) If not, then not OK, barring (3) just below.
(3) A newcoin that passes muster by reasonably trusted well-known programmers in a public forum who know their stuff, AND are not connected to the coin itself.
Ease of use and intended user-base for a crypto are other factors for some.
I only own BTC and BCH. I cannot vouch at all re the other 1900 cryptos.
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Unless you are already highly skilled in Bitcoin (or other crypto)
and
unless you can buy powerful mining equipment very cheap
and
your electricity costs are very low...:
Just buy the Bitcoin (or BCH, etc.)
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Been away from bitcointalk for a while because of our move which has been very complicated and burdensome.
I am pleased that anonymint has been active in exploring his ideas as well as debating Armstrong.
Does our man S. still agree with much of Armstrong's other ideas?
Any of you (Traxo?) who still might be in contact with him, please pass along my best wishes.
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... [message]  |
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Very interesting, CC. Thanks for sharing.
Google's AI bot recently beat the world champion in the Oriental strategy game of Go, which "they said" was a much harder game for a computer than chess.
I wonder how much AI and algorithms would affect a Knowledge Age, as predicted by one of our old friends here.
* * *
I saw robots in Korea at a couple of their ball bearing plants. Those factories were very advanced.
And robots were everywhere at the BMW auto assembly plant we toured a year and a half ago.
The USA is apparently way behind in the race to build high-quality robots. It's an important industry, our country will be missing out if we do not engage in this race.
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Thank you all for your comments on BCH's price spike. Just in the last few hours it has backed down, both relative to BTC and absolutely.
I would note that I bought some metal (iridium) today, the payment intermediary was BitPay, which offered me an option to pay with BCH.
So, maybe there is some kind of future for it (?), next opportunity, however, I will spend my BCH.
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...  Anyone have any idea why? BCH turned out to be a nice airdrop. Maybe time to sell/trade it? |
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First a quick background note: I know some Venezuelans (here in the USA) who are into BTC. I have not asked them if they are sending any to Venezuela (to family), but that is probably true in some cases. Note that there are Venezuelan spies/sympathizers who would happily rat-out any Venezuelans openly receiving BTC down there (Venezuelan Customs also sometimes checks cell phones for BTC wallets).
While I have read that Bitcoin benefits money launderers, Chinese wishing to evade capital controls, Dark Web markets, etc., I have NOT read of actual people who have had their butts saved or greatly helped by Bitcoin.
Please feel free to mention any real world experiences of regular people being substantially helped by BTC. Examples perhaps like paying border guards to leave, buying food in places like Caracas or Syria, a Bitcoin wallet helping you out after being robbed visiting a foreign country, etc.
If possible, please provide links.
Thank you!
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I got an airdrop of some BCH after last year's fork, but it took some time for my various wallets to start supporting it (two still do not).
For a fairly long time I noticed that the price ratio of BTC:BCH was about 8.5. Now BTC is over 10 x the price of BCH. This is an observation, no judgement or anything. But, since BTC is becoming more valuable (relatively) than BCH, I wonder if that means anything...
* * *
BTW, yesterday I did three small BTC transactions. All were simple. I chose the higher/priority fee in each case. Cost: $0.08 each. Confirmed in next block.
To save money, maybe sending BTC on Saturday night might be the way to go.
If BTC trx fees continue to be so low, that might not mean a great future for BCH...
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