Ok my prediction had turned out right after all...
Bitcoin is at 51k again....
And it didn't drop past my specified spot...
Now that's a big A for me
You didn't specify any point in your few posts. Or I didn't find it. You just mentioned what was a good buy point in one of your posts. Also I see no basis for your analysis which is OK in speculation. But yes it didn't go below $43 - $47k ... Yeah a bigly A for you *clap* *clap*   |
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That's why I'm holding to 2025  Expecting anything disastrous to happen in 2026? The cycles would suggest 2025 to be better than 2026 - but of course, there are no real guarantees exactly how cycles might fall... and therefore, none of us should be getting too wedded to any exact pattern - even though it still may be reasonable to use as a kind of guide -until and unless something better comes along. For example, there could be an outrageous peak and then dump in 2025 that would then cause 2026 to play out better than 2025.. Can think about the new pattern as a kind of 2013 double top scenario that drags out into 2026, and surely we are not even limited to previous patterns that still kinds of stick to the overall grander background pattern with more noise in the middle, so, even though the previous BTC price performance cycles have had a certain kind of consistency and patterns to them, there could surely be cases in which the pattern ends up getting messed up on a shorter timeline of 6-18 months, either purposefully or just by the way other related factors (macro or otherwise) play out, but then it may or may not still end up playing out very similarly, once we end up zooming out and looking at the pattern in a broader way (and perhaps after the fact?). 1 BTC purchasing power!  There is maybe a bear market in between, so we go back to lambo from the house  Don't you wish, you market-timer wannabe.  You get my drift... Next halving is in May 2024. ATH is about 1 year after that. Eta may 2025. Then a crash to 1/6th of it's price in 2026. Build up to halving in 2028 and ATH in 2029. So good vintages are 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 Years in between are shit years... |
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Bear market will probably start after August. But that's based on history....
Why after August? It makes no sense if we consider that ATH in the past always came 1 to 1.5 years after halving, and the math in that case is more than clear. It would be more logical if you wrote January 2022, because Q4 has historically been a very profitable month - and this year it has even more bull potential than 2017. The problem with OP and those who can not wait for the correction and bear market is that they definitely live in the wrong year - 2020 -> 2021 is by no means what it was 2017 -> 2018. August because I don't want to be around when transaction get impossible and everything goes parabolic and blows. Remember the $72 transaction fees? The three day wait for confirmations? Trades not going through... Everyone knows december is evil and is to watch out for, so many will reap before that... |
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Shower thought. Is it possible, that Satoshi created the most predictable “asset”? I have debated that the halving after the first and second is priced in, but we know that it wasn’t. When will be the next crash? I might debate that it is priced in again, but if proven wrong, then Satoshi truly has created the most predictable asset. It is predictable now but when Satoshi created bitcoin no one had a clue on what direction we will take and we hoped that it would catch up and we will see more adoption and merchants accepting the coin but Satoshi might not have anticipated that a heap of investors will flock and start investing billions and halving would become a predictable pump and dump event . Satoshi invented the best pyramid scheme ever. I'm happy with my position  |
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Time to sell the future of money for colorful slips of paper printed at will by a cabal of megalomaniacs.
Colorful slips of paper printed Time to sell the future of money By a cabal of megalomaniacs #haikuattempt |
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1 BTC purchasing power! That's why I'm holding to 2025 |
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Space elevator: the noob Newtonian dabbler in me has a question.
Won't a sufficiently high/massive elevator slow down this mudball's rotation? As in, longer days? Conservation of angular momentum and all that. Please make me feel safe again. Thanks.
If it was that heavy, what do you propose to anchor it to? A large tent peg? No because the space elevator is rotating the earth at the same speed as the earth. Also the material came from earth so it's still conservation of energy and mass. It's mass doesn't matter because it's hanging from space. You don't need to tether it because it's hanging down from space so you just need some concrete block at the bottom that weighs more than the counter weight in space. Until you learn gravity always win in the long run. Yes but the gravity of the sun can be the one winning ;-) |
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Space elevator: the noob Newtonian dabbler in me has a question.
Won't a sufficiently high/massive elevator slow down this mudball's rotation? As in, longer days? Conservation of angular momentum and all that. Please make me feel safe again. Thanks.
If it was that heavy, what do you propose to anchor it to? A large tent peg? 2. Mass vs rotation. As an example: When doing a flip/backflip you pull arms and legs to the body, to speed up the rotation (or you would just land on your head). There is no mass added/reduced and still extending arms and legs slows down the rotation. Since there is extended mass (but little, in relation to the planet), it has to have some effect on rotational speed too. Maybe the weight/distance problem from (1) adds to it, because you'd need greater mass in space to act as counterweight, which leads to 2. Great point but this is based on the percentage mass you displace. The tether will have the mass in the order of magnitude of 10000kg initially then beef it up 1000fold. 10,000,000kg is not a lot relative to the mass of the earth (5,972*10^24 kg). Arms of a person I would estimate to be 5-10% of the total body mass. This is the angular momentum issue I had. if the mass ratio between the outstretched "arm" and the main body is in the order of 1e-17, the slowing down should be around 1e-12 sec/day. Quite tolerable. We'd need to buiild a thousand billion such elevators before the day slows by 1 second. I'm feeling safe again. Thanks. Not much earth would be left because we made space elevators out of it |
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Space elevator: the noob Newtonian dabbler in me has a question.
Won't a sufficiently high/massive elevator slow down this mudball's rotation? As in, longer days? Conservation of angular momentum and all that. Please make me feel safe again. Thanks.
If it was that heavy, what do you propose to anchor it to? A large tent peg? No because the space elevator is rotating the earth at the same speed as the earth. Also the material came from earth so it's still conservation of energy and mass. It's mass doesn't matter because it's hanging from space. You don't need to tether it because it's hanging down from space so you just need some concrete block at the bottom that weighs more than the counter weight in space. Still some things that seem not right to me... 1. Gravity vs. weight. Weight is a gravitational-realtive unit. Questions: Isn't the counterweight in space much lighter because of the distance? 2. Mass vs rotation. As an example: When doing a flip/backflip you pull arms and legs to the body, to speed up the rotation (or you would just land on your head). There is no mass added/reduced and still extending arms and legs slows down the rotation. Since there is extended mass (but little, in relation to the planet), it has to have some effect on rotational speed too. Maybe the weight/distance problem from (1) adds to it, because you'd need greater mass in space to act as counterweight, which leads to 3. counter"weight" vs. payload: The counterweight in space is lighter than the weight (payload) on the ground, because of the distance and lack of gravity, right? How would it be even possible to send the space-weight down and at the same time pull the ground-weight up? These are the main aspects that just don't add up for me. Or is there a very basic error i'm making in my assumptions? 3. Good points an just for the record I’m not a physicist so I’m trying 1. Yes the counter weight has negative acceleration in reference to us because the rotation is pushing it away from earth. So negative artificial gravity. The mass needs to be further out than geostationary orbit. So mass and/or distance into space need to be adjusted. Too high and you overload the tether. Too low and it comes crashing to earth. This all can be calculated. It’s safe to say you need a significant mass 10000km higher than geostationary orbit. The weight needs to be able to move in or move out to compensate for the mass going up and down the tether. 2. Great point but this is based on the percentage mass you displace. The tether will have the mass in the order of magnitude of 10000kg initially then beef it up 1000fold. 10,000,000kg is not a lot relative to the mass of the earth (5,972*10^24 kg). Arms of a person I would estimate to be 5-10% of the total body mass. P.S. launching a rocket doesn’t push earth out of the solar system based on Newton’s law. Nor can we stop earth rotating by walking on the surface. It does apply a force but negligible based on mass difference |
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It will certainly have a decline in value after it exceeds the maximum ATH threshold. But not likely to happen at a 70% drop of value. Bitcoin has become the invisible force, spice up change. The same downward trend in 2018 will never happen. After bitcoin crossed $ 40k, it actually overcame psychology and turned into chaos for whales. The huge deficit since covid 19 has caused institutional investors to want an asset called digital gold - bitcoin. My prediction is that bitcoin works reach $ 85k by December this year.
Analysis is only one tool based on balance and normal weather conditions. Based on this we can consult, make a plan, but It is not valuable for other types of rapidly changing trends with particular trends.
It's going to hit above 100k before August if history repeats... May I know where'd you get that information as I don't see bitcoin reaching that high in just a span of a few months? Analysis and calculation might say that bitcoin would likely to dump as much as 70% for its price correction. But with all the factors and investors that came to bitcoin, it is unlikely to even drop 50% as there are a massive wall that is supporting bitcoin now such as corporations, governments, institution and business. We are now at a stage where bitcoin and other crypto are being considered as a way of transactions and payment with all the adoption and implementation that has been happening. If I may predict the outcome of Bitcoin we might see as low as 10% with a maximum of 30-35% price decline as a correction once all of this are settled and stabilizes. Again, this is just my "own" prediction based on different factors and my personal opinion. Pattern: Bitcoin has always increased after the halving. ATH is about a year after the halving. We have a few more months to go. Crash deep point you are talking about is 300 days after ATH Values: $1200 then crash to $162 then 117x increase to $19000 $19000 then crash to $3000 .... (speculation) 117x increase is $351000 (Crashes are to 1/6th of ATH) Parabolic phase: Bitcoin has a parabolic phase of 30days before it comes crashing down. Went from $6000 - $19000 in about 30 days. That’s a 300% increase. This fact alone puts BTC easily at $174000 Currently we are at a 19x increase so much more potential to go up. Currently few months left so much more potential to go up. Currently we are not going parabolic so this is not even 1/3rd of the coming ATH. THIS IS IF FUNDAMENTALS HAVENT CHANGED! I remain bullish!! And will sell some at the top and get my coins x3-x6 back in 300 days |
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Space elevator: the noob Newtonian dabbler in me has a question.
Won't a sufficiently high/massive elevator slow down this mudball's rotation? As in, longer days? Conservation of angular momentum and all that. Please make me feel safe again. Thanks.
If it was that heavy, what do you propose to anchor it to? A large tent peg? No because the space elevator is rotating the earth at the same speed as the earth. Also the material came from earth so it's still conservation of energy and mass. It's mass doesn't matter because it's hanging from space. You don't need to tether it because it's hanging down from space so you just need some concrete block at the bottom that weighs more than the counter weight in space. |
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I think the 2021 year will be great year for bitcoin and Cryptocurrency because the World Economic will have very bad status in end of 2020 and 2021 with this impact of Corona and other thing I read some paper that said America and China just can recover their Economic recovery at least in next 1 year in America and 2-3 Year in China so it is my predict of price ...do you agree? get have a discussion about my idea coin April2020 Mar2021Bitcoin 6800$ 25000$ Ethereum 155$ 600$ XRP 0.18$ 0.5$ Bitcoin Cash 230$ 1200$ Bitcoin SV 185$ 600$ Litecoin 42$ 200$ EOS 2.5$ 15$ Binance Coin 13.85$ 100$ Tezos 1.95$ 12$ Cardano 0.033$ 0.05$ TRON 0.012$ 15$ Ethereum Classic 5.26$ 25$ Neo 7.25$ 24$ IOTA 0.15$ 0.56$ Cosmos 2.29$ 10$ Zcash 36.15$ 150$ NEM 0.036$ 1$ Ontology 0.4$ 2$ Do you remember this my post... just now see ! we are in March 2021! What's your prediction for March 2025 so I can double it and know the real price |
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It will certainly have a decline in value after it exceeds the maximum ATH threshold. But not likely to happen at a 70% drop of value. Bitcoin has become the invisible force, spice up change. The same downward trend in 2018 will never happen. After bitcoin crossed $ 40k, it actually overcame psychology and turned into chaos for whales. The huge deficit since covid 19 has caused institutional investors to want an asset called digital gold - bitcoin. My prediction is that bitcoin works reach $ 85k by December this year.
Analysis is only one tool based on balance and normal weather conditions. Based on this we can consult, make a plan, but It is not valuable for other types of rapidly changing trends with particular trends.
It's going to hit above 100k before August if history repeats... |
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Well it's quite simple, with every new bull run they need a new "scam-straction" to distract the pleebs away from Bitcoin. With this new NFT garbage, it's like the mother of all frauds: selling outrageously over-priced digital tulips on the biggest scam blockchain of them all, ETH. They will be *really* hard pressed to top that one in 2024. Scamstractions can make a nice sider of Satoshi when you dump them before the top. They outperform BTC before exploding into thin air |
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Not to go all ETH this thread but for me it's just additional profits to gain that will be turned into fun money or BTC. I think this will be my strategy each cycle (because of its success). Buy a few K of the most promising shitcoins at the lowest in the cycle and then ride the greater percentage increase and convert to fiat, fun or BTC. Dump the BTC gained to the cold wallet and rinse and repeat... Making my own magic ball |
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This is more of a shitcoin speculation than bitcoin speculation and including a bitcoin price in it doesn't change that.
In any case you are wrong about USD value of ETH because shitcoins don't go up in terms of USD, they dump in terms of BTC then since bitcoin is going up itself these shitcoins gain more USD value.
For example ETH has been dumping for the past 4 years but because bitcoin price has gone up 1460% these shitcoin's USD value shows some gain fooling people into thinking it has gone up.
ETH will continue to dump while bitcoin keeps on rising and when it reaches $80k, $100k and $400k the shitcoins will show US gains. For example a shitcoin that was worth 1000 satoshi or $0.032 last year would be 10 satoshi or $0.04 and people suddenly think it has gone up.
BTC has more value in the long run but here are some facts for you ETH went up from $86 to $2000 (23x) BTC went up from $4000 to $58000 (14.5x) I believe ETH won't be this good next cycle. I've just experimented with a few this year for shits and giggles. My BTC holdings are way higher and won't ever sell them until set for life (closing in fast) |
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Maybe the price will hit $100k this year, but with more volatility and unpredicted movements. But I am waiting for the high price, and I am sure many of us will have the same reason The next bitcoin movement will not be the same as 2017 because many things already change, including support from the big company and more new people who invest in bitcoin. But the dump can be any price, and it can get down as lower as before. If it ever hits 100k USD this year, I believe that volatility would be checked and I don't think that it will be the least of our worries, what I worry is that when the price reach that point, a sudden downturn will happen and I don't mean just any downturn but a big one because a lot will not be able to hold on any longer and they see 100k USD as a good price to get out of the market and wait for it to go down. It is already evident that this year's run is not the same as 2017 the moment that bitcoin was still going strong despite reaching the end of the 3rd week of January. You sound like the people saying the same about $10k. We nearly doubled it with the FOMO. 100K WILL GET HIT. I agree $100k is where you should think about taking profits before the new bear season. It will ATH anywhere from $101k to $300k... |
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Alt season was 4 years ago and ended 3 years ago.
The alt fad was just a scam to rip off suckers.
Well this year I’ve made better gains on ETH than BTC. Not all alts are shitcoins. But yes all alts are a means to gain more BTC or $$$.... |
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Bitcoin waits unto you don't look and then it shoots off in a random direction... As long as it continues to head in the general direction of North then we're all good. 95% chance it will IMO |
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The most normal thing is that they will all fall little by little, since this is not a question of a crazy investment. It is rather the best way to protect against massive central bank printing. To hold cash for longer than a year is to be willing to lose money. Obviously, you have to have some cash. But we will see how little by little, they start buying small amounts of Bitcoin and then more and more companies buy more and more amounts.
While this would be the normal thing to do we need to understand that the longer those businesses hesitate to enter this market the more expensive it will become and the longer they expose their fiat to begin devalued by governments all around the world, this phenomenon is why crises begin kind of slow and then something happens that accelerates dramatically the turn of events, and I think something similar could happen here as businesses try to use bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Only your fiat is insured, your Bitcoin is not. It’s just the same reason you don’t have all your money stuffed under your mattress.... |
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