It's funny how everybody says when they sold but nobody talks about when they buy.

Do we really need a 10 page news article to tell us what we've known for 6 years about halving?

Nope, but you will drop on your head when reality hits you... Meanwhile, those who are not deluded will drive profit on you.
I can't count anymore how much flashcrashes I did profit from... but since we both look at different chards, I am sure
we both can stop to discuss with each other.

Yea, I think about something like this...

January around $320.... February about $250 and then a slow bleed to $180 or so.

On 25th Dec 2015, 3 Month Futures Contracts on OKCoin expire (huge market btw).

Word has it, that 'they' have a vested interest in holding Bitcoin in and around this range until this date, at which point 'they' cash in, cash out, and then short Bitcoin. Until then, expect BTC to be full of nasty choppiness, with all manner of misleading signals and market structure to sucker punch n00b traders but ultimately the experienced and shrewd trader (and that certainly isn't me) is expecting a correction at least down to the 30 ema and/or the 38.2% retracement for the whole rally (so around $400). Whatever happens, bound to be a bounce around here, but if it doesn't hold, then it will be the $360 zone down at the 61.8% retracement, which just so happens to be what Smart Money would refer to has the 'wholesale' reload zone. Right now, we are in the 'retail' zone. This is where Smart Money sells 'overvalued' BTC to n00bs....and like I say, much shrewder punters than me reckon we will hang around here until the 3 Month Future contracts turnover (in 3 days time), and then after that.....DOWN!

I am long term bullish on Bitcoin, but Bitcoin has changed. We now have margin trading, ability to short, and a large and liquid BTC futures market on top of that, with yet more leveraged trading. Unlike in the days of Gox and Willy bot, when Bitcoin whales still largely consisted of 'dumb money' (i.e. tech nerds holding all the BTC as opposed to pro traders), I think in the next bull rise, we can expect to see a shit ton more up and down volatility as the pro trader whales take market down into their wholesale reload zones, before ramping it up into their retail cash out zones. This is how Smart Money takes money from the market. 'They' aint going to just let this rise and rise unabated (with the odd panic flash sell off) like in previous bull runs.

Go long now at your own peril. Even attempt to trade swings now at your own peril. Since I returned here, I have noticed that the one member of this site who seems to be well on the money (without ever providing any TA for his projections and forecasts) is Morecoin Freeman. He turned bear after $420 (yeah, BTC went up to $470, but so what). He said, 'see ya all in 2016'. Perhaps he is mindful of this pending 3 Months Future contract turnover and the overstretched nature of the market?

i would wish to go short for now, $400. i am not sure it will be.
let's see what happen if it did.

Nice.

Yes, all the time. I trust myself more than anyone else.

Why don't the Chinese just keep the money in BTC, which, according to Marcus_Ridiculous is the best store of value? Bonus: Reduced supply of BTC would drive price up. Why cash out to fiat toilet paper in the dumbest way possible?
And how does 'Bitcoin moves across borders relatively frictionlessly and speedily (10 mins to hours not days)' play into this?
And why wait & sell it as one huge chunk, are these people new to all this?

- Knock knock.
- Who's there?
- Correction.
- How can I help you?
- I'm here to inform you that the train is leaving soon. Destination: Unknown

Looking at the daily price and volume at Huobi, OKCoin, and other exchanges, I can see

(1) A gradual "exponential" increase in volume and price from about 2015-09-20 to the peak (~3350 CNY) on 11-04;
(2) A tumbling price and volume drop between 11-04 and 11-24 (down to ~2050 CNY);
(3) A very sharp increase in volume to a record high value on 11-24, that persisted until now; and a corresponding rally in price, by a rapid steady rise broken by several large jumps (to ~3150 CNY).

There was a partial crash today, to ~2800 CNY, but it is not clear yet how it will end.

There seems to be no certain explanation for these moves.  (And it seems that no one wants to find out...)

My best candidate explanation for (1) is still the bitcoin-based MMM ponzi and copycats, mostly in China; amplified by day-trader speculation.  The dates seem to match, the ponzi can easily move that amount of money, and the gradual "exponential" growth is consistent with the demand for bitcoins spreading among a new population of  by "infection".

The crash (2) would then be the speculators dumping their coins when they realized that the primary demand had leveled off.   Perhaps the ponzi saturated by 11-04, or participants ("lucky victims" and organizers) started to sell the bitcoins that they received.  

The new rally (3) could be due to the same cause as (1); however, considering the much higher volume and the way it grew (suddenly rather than gradually), the cause is probably different.

Rally (3) may have been due to the crackdown by the Chinese government on the use of the Chinese state credit/debit card (UnionPay) to export cash for gambling and other purposes.  The abuse seemed to be pervasive in Macau, the Las Vegas of China, which has a somewhat independent economy (like Hong Kong). Reports say that Mainland gamblers would go to Macau, pretend to buy merchandise at local pawn shops with the card, then pretend to return it for a cash refund (minus the shop's commission).  That way they could bypass the card's limit on cash withdrawal.  If that loophole was suddenly closed, it seems possible that the gamblers switched en masse to bitcoin.  

A sudden jump in the price must be due to single person buying or selling a large amount of bitcoin in a short time interval.  If the above explanation is correct, those may be exceptionally wealthy people trying to move their money out, or perhaps clandestine money transmitters providing that service for many smaller clients.  Either way, the jumps seem to indicate that the price is determined by a relatively small number of players.

Why torture yourself with following the market and trading if you're going to just use 2%? I only trade(d) to strike it rich and make significant increases in my btc, and I still hate it.

I thought that was already established given the volume and indicators over the entire past month.  Especially the break from 320 and 370 were the final confirmations needed.  This rally to 460 is just a technicality about exactly what the shape of this consolidation will be like. So TODAY is not a big deal.  Maybe 2 weeks ago was a big deal.

I don't see what's so special about today.  An 8% up day within a wave of a consolidation period doesn't "male history".

Wiping the the floor with shorters like