Been in Bitcoin a long time and I agree mostly.
$100k will get hit.
My prognosis is ATH $190k in august.
Crash down to $35k in June 2022 or so
2022? Hrm. I was thinking we'd see it later this year (around November-December). Perhaps I'm jumping the gun on it, but your price prediction of $190k at the the peak seems about right, right along with the low. It seems we're seeing the same pattern over and over. Just keep adding a '0' each cycle though. I'm talking about the ATL (lowest point after last ATH, deepest point in bear market). The crash will start after August I think. |
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World premiere of the new Mercedes C class. It's basically a smaller S class but more sporty and it's bigger than the previous C model. Already contacted my local dealer, he said there will be a special introduction model. I'm on the potential buyer's list, it will be either the E coupe ore this new C model.  https://media.mercedes-benz.com/c-classhttps://i.imgur.com/LJdLaKa.pngIt looks good but the wifey doesn't like a Merc. It won't be an Alpina for now but a BMW is good enough  M850i  |
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give an idea or something that you know about the current market conditions
TA people were expecting a 30-40% drop one month ago. Since then the price almost doubled (32k->58k). Now we have a correction. Fine. Some want to cash in, the market needs to catch its breath or refuel the rocket. The rule for investing only money you afford to lose exists exactly to not freak out in times like this. On a brighter note, it looks like it's trying to start recovering now.. Exactly. It’s just the process of killing traditional margin traders, killing stop losses and scaring the weak hands... I think it’s best to postpone the FOMO as long as possible so we get the highest ATH possible |
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Been in Bitcoin a long time and I agree mostly.
$100k will get hit.
My prognosis is ATH $190k in august.
Crash down to $35k in June 2022 or so
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Like all last two cycles this is just whales getting people killed in stoplosses or take profits. Seen it all before. Can't go up all the time. This just makes sure only the dedicated strong hand will remain... More panic sell and panic buying is always welcome.... |
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I voted March. Bitcoin always surges, the retracts, then surges again. 60k will be in the next surge. Stable growth will provide a greater ATH. THE PLEBS MUST FOMO AFTER 100k pushing it up to 200k before crashing to 30k |
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Stupid correlations
China ban
ETF
Christmas
Chinese New Year
etc.
Heard it all but we all know it’s the human mind trying to fill in the blanks.
Bitcoin is like honeybadger. Don’t give a shit...
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I’ve been in the game for long enough that I will take some profits. This is to be well off no matter what Bitcoin does. Majority will remain in the HODL for the next cycle...
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I want to preface this post by saying that I have not studied economics, and these are just my blissful wishes.
For a while this little scenario has been playing in my head:
Say you have 1 Bitcoin. The price is say $50k. At any point in time you sell, you will get 50k, if the price, however, drops below to say $40k, you have a perceived loss of $10k, yep you still have your 1 BTC, but you can buy less USD than you could before. There will come a day when Bitcoin is not valued in USD, but until then, we will stick to the basics.
When stablecoins were first introduced, I did not read about them nor understand them, and ignorantly thought it was a tool to lock the price of a pair such that if the price did drop by $10k, you'd not be unaffected but if it increases, your portfolio would still rise. Because trading is a zero sum game, this is impossible but I still want to continue.
The same goes if we reverse the situation. If I sell 1 Bitcoin at $50k, yes I will have $50k, but if the price increases of Bitcoin to $60k I still have a perceived loss of $10k. The reason I say perceived is because you cannot lose something you never had, right? But some people like me don't experience situations like this as simply perceived loss, for me it's a real loss.
If I decide to buy back Bitcoin with $50k, while the price is $60k, I can only buy 0.83btc, all of a sudden I have a 0.1666 btc perceived loss.
Wouldn't it have been great if my money would still somehow buy me that 1BTC? It's just a dream because if this was possible, you'd have a way to infinitely multiply your holdings.
With that story out of the way, what methods exist, if they even exist, to reduce this perceived loss? Hedging?
Stop focusing on the absolute price and maximum profit. Nobody will get that. If the price increases 1000% and you walk away with 1% then you have a good profit.... Your emotions and greed are also a problem. That’s your perceived loss. Perceived loss concept will be your undoing... The basics: If you think it will increase then buy. If you think it will decrease sell. Take into account transaction fees. Buy and sell according to a strict plan/system. If you make many little profits you will gain big profits. Real daytraders make 45% bad trades and 55% good trades. By doing strategic risk management and ignoring emotion they can build up those little profits. |
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noooooo not that waaaayyy. the other waaaaaaayyyyyyy
Honeybadger |
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$ 19500 has already been reached, if it can stay above $ 19k I'm sure the price of Bitcoin can reach $ 20k quickly,
just wait until all is well, FOMO and Hype come together and Bitcoin To The Moon
Remember that many got in at this point 4 years ago. Some will be happy to get their money back. Expect frequent dumping on the way up. I think it's so early to predict about the dump and we are newly entering the month of December so provably we can see more from it and maybe we can see some pumps since the hype still on the good side. But I will be careful when this month is ending since the heavy dump still in my mind and I don't want to experience again and baghold or left behind. I've been here long enough to say that Christmas doesn't help Bitcoin much. With frequent dumps I mean that it will keep Bitcoin from skyrocketing. What you just saw... BTC hit 19900 and got dumped back to 19500.... Anyway a steady rise is what we all want if we want BTC to go very high this time round... |
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$ 19500 has already been reached, if it can stay above $ 19k I'm sure the price of Bitcoin can reach $ 20k quickly,
just wait until all is well, FOMO and Hype come together and Bitcoin To The Moon
Remember that many got in at this point 4 years ago. Some will be happy to get their money back. Expect frequent dumping on the way up. |
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when the initial correction after reaching nearly $20k occurred a lot of profit was in the hands of traders that is now going back into bitcoin pushing the price up. and as the price goes up a lot of new investors show up with a lot more money. this is all just the start... Want to retire? Buy a single Bitcoin today. you can't retire with only $1 million. This year will be more like $70k to max $100k IMO.
i don't think we can see such a huge bubble in only 1 month. we are just starting the slow rise to break the previous ATH. at least 6 months is needed after that for the big rises to start then we can expect a bubble. but by that time the bubble won't be at $100k, it can be at much higher at $400k this time. keep in mind that last time price went nearly 20x higher than the previous ATH which is 20x $20000 = $400k I f’ed up 70k to 100k in 2021 I meant |
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Imagine the value of 1 full coin 10-20 years from now. Never sell all your Bitcoin!  $4,000,000,000,000/ BTC in 2048 should be enough to retire on  |
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This year will be more like $70k to max $100k IMO. The next halving is in march 2024 so $300k-$500k in march 2025 or so. Then in 2028 it is likely to halve again. Then in 2029 BTC could be way higher than $1M. Having said that these numbers are insane |
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Finally it's looking like we are going up  |
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TLDR: Citibank now reads WO and is filling their bags. Here you have the full report. - The whole existence of Bitcoin has been characterised by unthinkable rallies followed by painful corrections (The type
of pattern that sustains a long term trend.)
- The first major rally on this chart as Bitcoin came into the mainstream was the exponential move from 2010 into the 2011 high
followed by a deep correction. This is interesting for 3 reasons
- That surge, as it came into the mainstream, was very reminiscent of what happened with Gold as it was allowed to
float in the early 1970’s after 50 years of trading in a $20-$35 range. - That period with regard to the Gold price was a structural change in the modern day monetary regime as it broke
the orthodox relationship between FIAT currencies and Gold ushering in a World of fiscal indiscipline, deficits and
inflation. - The Bitcoin move happened in the aftermath of the Great Financial crisis which saw a new change in the monetary
regime as we went to ZERO per cent interest rates (negative in some countries) and massive QE.
- Are we on the cusp of another such structural development? A number of things come to mind in that respect
- With the onset of a new crisis (Covid) Fiscal Orthodoxy has gone out the window (and likely rightly so for now). The
unprecedented societal crisis that we are seeing today leaves little if any room around the World for Fiscal
austerity. - The Fed (The Central Bank of the World) has given 2 pieces of very clear guidance in recent years about how
monetary policy is being reshaped, in possibly the most dramatic fashion since the floating of Gold in the 1970’s,
even more so than the introduction of QE in the last cycle. - The first guidance was before the Pandemic hit and was an assessment of the actions taken during the Financial
crisis. If I remember the phrase correctly it was something like “better a dime today than a Dollar tomorrow”. In
essence the conclusion was that it was better if a crisis developed to hit it hard and early rather than piecemeal
over time- the “big bazooka” effectively. True to their word that is exactly what they did as the Pandemic roiled
financial markets in Feb-March this year. - The second and (in my view) more “monumental” guidance was the indication that as the economy/inflation
and employment pick up they will not look to constrain monetary policy in the same fashion they have in the whole
post Volcker era. This change in monetary policy and simultaneous opening up in fiscal policy is (despite
protestations to the contrary) MMT in all but name and a clear intention of debasing FIAT currency.
- Historically this has been good for Gold and likely will again. However, Gold has some restrictions that also need to be noted.
Physical Gold needs to be stored, is not readily portable across borders, has paper equivalents on exchanges that may or may
not fully reflect the actual move in Gold and could possibly be called “yesterday’s news” in terms of a financial hedge.
- Bitcoin is the new Gold- It is an asset with limited supply. It is digital (This is the 21st century- Gold is a 20th century asset).
It moves across borders easily and ownership is opaque. That last point is, I believe, very relevant. The huge Fiscal deterioration
of today has a cost in the future, either directly or indirectly. Directly it is that at some point the “bills have to be paid” which
means at some time in the future the money needs to be found. While Bitcoin may become subject to more regulatory
constraints going forward it is a natural store of “money” to avoid this. Indirectly the argument can be the debasement of FIAT
currencies by creating high nominal growth and inflation (effectively a soft default- I do not believe hard default, particularly in
the World’s reserve currency is a real concern. However in lesser currencies it could well be)
- Central Banks are increasingly discussing digitisation of currencies: This is a double edged sword. On one side it creates a
much more effective mechanism for distributing stimulus (particularly fiscal) but on the other side it also makes capital
confiscation easier (eg negative interest rates). Both these scenarios would look to me to be positive Bitcoin and in the 21st
Century give us the digital equivalent (Bitcoin versus FIAT digital) of what we saw in the 20th century when the financial regime
changed (Gold versus FIAT paper)
- So let us go back to the chart. After the high was posted in 2011 we saw Bitcoin retrace 93% over 5 months (not for the faint
hearted). That was followed by a 9 year period that has been much more symmetric as Bitcoin as an asset became more visible
and increasingly more mainstream
- It rallied for 2 years from 2011-2013 (multiplying by an incredible 555 times)
- It fell from Dec 2013 to Jan 2015 (13 months) by 86%
- It rallied from Jan 2015 to Dec 2017 (2 years and 11 months) multiplying by 121 times
- It fell from December 2017 to Dec 2018 (12 months) by 84%
- It rallied from December 2018 to? by ? %
- If you look at the chart below and the price action to date you could argue 2 things
- Timeframes for the rally are getting longer (10 months, 2 years, 3 years and next 4 years? So end of 2022.) Of course in
doing that you likely argue even higher levels as a consequence.
- You look at price action being much more symmetrical over the past 7 years or so (while still huge numbers) forming
what looks like a very well defined channel giving us an up move of similar timeframe to the last rally. Such an argument
would suggest that this move could potentially peak in December 2021, at the high of the channel, suggesting a move as
high as $318k. Improbable though that seems it would only be a low to high rally of 102 times (the weakest rally so far in
percentage terms) at a point where the arguments in favour of Bitcoin could well be at their most persuasive ever.
- Time will tell if we end up seeing such lofty levels but the backdrop and the price action we are looking at clearly
suggest the potential for a major move higher nonetheless in the next 12-24 months.
 I don't know about the prediction, but I like the reasoning about bitcoin put down by the guy. It is almost the reason why I am long bitcoin. I hope he's right but I don't see this happening. IMO $70k-$100k max.... |
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Blijft in uw kot! ...of gegeten worden, denk ik.
First ok after the .... or been eaten, I think. <—  Blijft in uw kot! => Old fashioned (or belgian) way of saying "Stay in your raggedy-ass house!" |
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If we're going to have a strong breakout in the market (I'm not talking about the regular 2% - 5% ups or downs), It would be in 2021. I just have a strong feeling about crypto going even bigger next year. Everytime Bitcoin has made the move towards $12K this year, the number of bitcoin shorts always seems to increase. A famous example was the prediction of a massive raise in price after the halving of the block reward event but that wasn't the case. Although many already bought in anticipation of the event, which is why the post halving surge was more profitable than the immediately market reaction after the halving.
Contrary to popular opinions and beliefs, Bitcoin's price doesn't immediately grow immediately after a block reward halving event. My first experience was with the block halving back in 2016. We didn't see a strong upside move until mid 2017 extending to 2018. Mist people who bought into crypto merely for the strong upside move that was promised/hyped about would be disappointed now. I'm still bullish on bitcoin and there's a high probability of seeing strong moves in the coming year. Exactly. My calculations say that the new ATH will be next year July @70k. So for now sideways with slow growth. With covid the ATH could come later. We simply don't know.... |
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$70k
Will sell some before that. To be ahead of the FOMO.
HODL the rest....
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