This large movement to the downside seems without explanation in EW terms on at least the smaller time scales. Therefore with the bigger picture as it is this is an extremely risky market to have any leveraged position right now from an EW perspective. Follow through to the downside may force initiation of a wave V count in progress.

I will wait until the market conforms to my expectations before I give any further trades.

We still have no reason to close our long or be bearish. The correction has stalled and turned respecting critical EW levels and rules. Impulses do not simply occur on their own, we do not have any impulse to the downside, and alongside a lot of other strong evidence signals are pointing up from here. The larger picture supports us. a stop under local lows is great risk reward here.

We have a clear break out of the descending channel. Our stop loss was not hit by 6yuan! critical levels indeed!

.... we can now move our stops up to 2056 yuan.

Ballsy! thats what its all about. best of luck.

We have been truly tested but now we have fairly strong evidence we have hit a bottom. we are at fib and channel support. very important in a flat correction. equally important we have had a terminating impulse to the down side as there must always be in a corrective wave c.

We would have no evidence that V wave has begun only because we might break new lows here, but it would leave me a bit stumped and needing of a few days worth of price action to see just what's going on here.

this price behaviour is uninspiring to say the least but retracements of wave (i) are often this deep unfortunately. We have no EW evidence supporting a breach of 2050 tonight. I will sit tight with a stop just under 2050.

I am not this organised. labelling charts on TV is a tedious job. You should be able to see which scale I am counting simply by the scale of the chart. Im sorry if I am confusing Ill try harder but after all its a free thread.

One of the reasons I think C is not done is because we have not entered the territory of wave iv(III), so imo the price does have room to move. If you look at the western charts in particularly an impulsive count is very difficult to count for i/a of B/I, and the retrace of hypothetical wave A is very shallow and weak compared to wave A. I would expect a sharper downwards impulse if it were the beginning of wave V.

I can see where you are coming from though, I'm keeping an eye on it.

B cant be considered impulsive as illustrated here and above. it takes the form of abc with c wave impulsive.

Good question,

There are two strong reasons why wave IV is not complete.

Reason #1, the hypothetical wave IV did not retrace enough to satisfy a fair fib retracement, we expect a retrace to the wave iv(III) as is a strong rule. nore did it span long enough in time for fair proportion to the greater system.

Reason #2, The fall from 2500 yuan started with a non impulsive abc. If you like there is a very weak argument we had a diminished v in china to form an impulse, but the western exchanges are a total mess and can only represent non impulsive behaviour. there is also a very important trend line which was broken suggesting that pric action was not impulsive.

that is a big question

https://encrypted.google.com/books?id=lQ0OEmzM9tsC&lpg=PA52&pg=PA53#v=onepage&q&f=false

or would you like this case in particular? tbh, its not worth an example on 5min charts. just follow the thread, its all I do.

no just EW price action/volume and fibs. thats all I use.

Yeah you are right..... but sometimes its best to keep ones expectations lower. better be surprised than dissapointed, we have moved a lot already.


Good place to buy here. looks like we have completed the correction. stops at 2050. expect honey badger next 2 weeks ok, no flip flopping positions or you will lose your spot.

wha? is this what I sound like? lol. you would like a 2hr chart? hasnt changed much.

This just seems to be extending into a larger fractal. Dont chase this, be patient. that was a big move, lots of panic, margin calls etc. we need to take a long break and take a breath. Look to buy anything at 2100 or below, stop 2050, hold tight. The Best thing I have to compare what this is going to be like over the next weeks is the may rally from 440-680.

snap up those bitcoins at 2090 if you didnt buy the breakout. stoploss at 2050.

With a stop loss at 2045, this breakout trade will be the one of the most robust, high confidence and best risk/reward trades I could offer to you as an EW analyst.

This is a medium term hold position, we are targeting cerca 3000yuan, $470

Im posting this in a hurry, price is climbing like nuts.... Please dont panick. it is better to buy on a dip than to chase the price, even if you have to buy in higher. You should still be able to pick up some bitcoin below 2100.

you cant stop printing the money or the cake flops. They will commencing further printing as soon as the economy starts tipping. if they dont.... we will see massive deflation, collapse of global markets. could be really good for bitcoin both ways.

The yellow i-ii is only a precaution because the stronger count is an a-b-c-d-e-f-g triangle. I say this because the hypothetical wave i does not fit nicely into impulsive guidelines. The harder evidence will be when we pass 2090, until then we should be prepared for the last little wave capped by 2000, but I think its also fair to believe we have bottomed. The counts on the western exchanges support that we have bottomed, hypothetical wave i-ii in yellow do not fit in there.