As of March 4th Canada's BTCC (TSX) ETF is holding BTC11.352 https://www.purposeinvest.com/funds/purpose-bitcoin-etfCanada's EBIT (TSX) ETF has AUM of $50.680MM or at $46.500 thats BTC1089 https://evolveetfs.com/product/ebit/they only started to trade like 2 weeks ago Just those two Canadian ETFs are eating up all of the newly mined BTC900/day supply. Grayscale GBTC offers no redemption so their BTC655.732 are not for sale. Distribution is a beautiful thing, expecting lambo traffic jams soon  |
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Here's a interesting comment on seekingalpha about the current GBTC discount: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3669426-mulling-bitcoin-and-100k-is-grayscales-discount-a-buy-signal"Three reasons Grayscale (GBTC) is trading at a whopping big discount to the bitcoin it owns: (1) New ETF products that don't charge a hefty 2% annual fee for holding your bitcoin may soon appear. (2) GBTC is not redeemable. If the GBTC discount becomes excessive, Grayscale still owns the bitcoin, but existing shareholders get nothing and can't get the bitcoin out. So far as I know, there is no mechanism to bring the share price into line with the bitcoin price, which is why Im not buying any more GBTC. (3) ARKK is likely being forced to liquidate its holdings due to redemptions. As ARKK holds its bitcoin in GBTC, forced sales into a declining market could be pushing down GBTC to a huge discount."I had not considered the sale pressure from a possible ARK liquidation. I double checked ARK ETF's that have GBTC, and it is not ARKK. It is in ARKW (ARK NEXT GENERATION INTERNET ETF), where GBTC is the 3rd largest position (after Tesla and Square), at 8,309,914 shares with market value of $344,030,439.60 for 4.77% weight of the fund. GBTC has Shares Outstanding 692.3M, so ARKW holds 1.200% (8.309914M/692.3M). I'm not sure if ARKW selling a bit of their a little over 1% would cause such a large drop in GBTC premium. But in any case, I think it might be a good time to add some GBTC! I'm not sure why everyone leaves this out, but don't forget that you're comparing the spot price of the secondary market (closing price of BTC Trust shares at 4PM ET on OTCQX®) to the BTC's volume weighted average price for the last 24hr (based on a 24 hour VWAP of TradeBlock’s XBX Index) which is really not an ideal comparison. When markets go down during the day your spot at 4pm will almost always be lower than the average, same is true for the opposite, market sharply going up means your spot at the end of the day is likely higher then the avg for the last 24hrs (weighted by volume). Looks like spot TradeBlock’s XBX on March 4th 4pm was around $48.192 ( https://tradeblock.com/markets/index conveniently they're also showing GDAXs discount at -8,01% today) with Bitcoin per Share at 0,00094685 that would put BTC's spot NAV at $45,63 vs $46.83 (March 4th 4pm ET, based on a 24 hour VWAP of TradeBlock’s XBX Index). There's still a discount but it narrows the gap. As far as speculating on the reasons, GBTC fees are 2% while Canada's ETF BTCC (TSX) appear to be 1% and EBIT (TSX) is at 0,75%, naturally once you have an option people would gravitate towards lower fee structures. I might be mistaken, but i don't think Canada's market are an option for US retirement accounts  so until US ETF comes around GBTC (or similar fund) is your only option. GBTC is now closed and doesn't issue new shares, so inflows from retirement accounts into GBTC must absorb temporary outflows from regular accounts leaving for Canada. But there's a lag of people who bought at the primary and are currently locked in for 6month, so as long as there's net demand from pensions for exposure to BTC, discount might continue for the maximum of 6month (baring US ETF). tl;dr without US ETF discount should be temporary for the max of 6m. With the fiat printer going full Brrrr i'd be surprised to see US approve ETF, I'd expect them to hold out for as long as possible. |
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Good Morning WOvians ... So we had a huge dump from our friend the fuck2pool again this night to get the price down under 50k ... luckly we closed yesterday over 50k. We had a nice breakout to the upper side of the bull-flag ... and it seems to be goingupwarts until a bigger dump cam up. My suggestion is again a couple of thousands corns were dumped from fuck2pool ...
Where do you get the data for f2pool? Also, don't be too worried, the market will eat up all their coins. In addition, I think they are a chinese pool right? this means if they say they have a million coins they actually have no more than 100k. The chinese are so full of shit, they big note themselves at every moment. It's for 'face' everything is about face for these tossers. CryptosRus makes several videos about this. They aree the only once how has and bitcoin outflow since december. And maybe it'S because they have mining farms in regions, where they forbidd mining in the future. Nobody knows, why they doing it, but they doing it. Nevertheless the number of coins they are moving ... Add several thousend to the market and the price is suffering. The same, add fiat money to the market and the price will go up. Cryptoquant is one source. You can see the daily outflow for free. The hourly outflow you have to pay for it. https://cryptoquant.com/overview/full/227?window=dayTo be clear. We can trade millions of coins between us, there is not much price movement. You have to put in fresh (fiat) money, than the price goes up or you put "fresh" coins to the market and the price is going down. In the long run they will loose and their coins will be eaten up. But they can cause movement around some key points and invalid outbreak on patterns for example or put us under a psychological barrier ... So don'T underestmated the force of 8400 addtional coins on the market... Yesterday, for example. You are right, if we have a massive buyer market, then they coins will be eaten up very fast! Thanks for the link. Yeah, long term is the way. I'm not going to deny that the short term movements from these sort of things don't suck, but long term its upward with f2pool sliding into irrelevancy. Btw. 8400 Coins sems small when you see the movment on the market. But these are 420.000.000$ .. these are 42% of what michael put in fiat on the market. So 400 M$ has an impact in both ends. In fiat also in coins ... willy woo says that glassnode data that checks the pool sales on exchanges does not at all hint any big f2pool sell. So if they're tracing the outflows of f2pool, why can't they show remaining balance? This is bitcoin we're talking here right? Plus i doubt that it's them, shouldn't Gox be liquidating their coins to pay out the claims that decided to be settled in cash soon? |
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Money printer is going Brrrr and they're out there cheer leading, trying to convince everyone how somehow that should not cause inflation. Frankly they'd be shooting themselves in the foot (even more so) if they allowed ETF right now. Can you imagine the front page headlines Brrrr printer printed gazillion dollars, on separate and totally unrelated news, BTC ETF is the best performing ETF and saw a gazillion dollar inflow in the same time period  2+2=?? |
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Are we finally seeing the beginning of the end for Grayscale's dominance of the way institutional buyers get exposure to Bitcoin??
Premium has collapsed due to lack of buyers in their primary market. So they've closed the fund, no doubt hoping to build up buy momentum by not allowing buys for a bit. Pretty bad when you are the market leader in the hottest investment in the world but you have to artificially try to inflate your premium/profits by closing the fund.
With other trusts and hedge funds opening up the past couple months, plus the Canadian ETFs just starting recently, I can see the high premium / high fee model of Grayscale starting to seem highly outdated to investors. Premiums and fees should in general shrink close to zero in a world in which there are more and more ways to get into Bitcoin. Not too surprising to see Grayscale market drying up as Wall St gets more and cheaper and more direct options to get into Bitcoin.
Only thing that sucks is that for the past few months we could get a good judgement of institutional buying just from looking at Grayscale, which is obviously not the case anymore.
Negative, premium has collapsed due to lack of buyers in their secondary market. Primary market buys at NAV so directly tied to bitcoin price. As far as it being the end for them, only when better alternatives like ETF come online, until then that's the only game in town for pension funds and people who want to hold paper BTC. Ah perhaps you're right about the secondary as opposed to the primary market. But the main point is both the primary and secondary market have collapsed for Grayscale. This is because there are better alternatives already. Several competing trusts and funds that are cheaper have come out the past couple months, plus there are two Canadian ETFs now that I believe US investors should have full access to (though I'm sure a US ETF will gain a lot more traction than Canadian ones). Both Grayscale markets are collapsing because investors have better cheaper options now that Grayscale isn't the only game in town. It only dominated before because it was the only game in town for people who either legally couldn't or didn't want to directly buy Bitcoin. Grayscale need to drop their fees quite a bit if they want to have any chance of competing against the alternatives. Primary market just tracks BTC price and cannot collapse especially without redemption. Redemption would provide a floor for the secondary market. Not sure which better alternatives you're talking about, I'm not sure if US retirement accounts are allowed to invest in Canada's ETF on TSX as far as other OTC funds, as long as inflow funds are restricted from trading for 6m-1yr there should always be a premium on secondary market. GBTC has first mover advantage and that means volume, sure other OTC funds can offer lower management fees say 50bps, but with everything else being equal all that would mean that GBTC would be trading just 1.5% lower vs the other fund. I can't see how 2% management fees can cause premiums to go from 40% to a -2% discount. All the premium discount means is that there are more sellers on secondary market than buyers. It might be simply because of the correction, or rumors of US ETF spooked the market or/and someone is front running the news. With shares trading at discount there's no reason to pay more at the primary and be locked in for 6m when you can pay less for exactly same shares and don't have any restrictions. All the "true" cash that was coming in the primary should theoretically now just come in on secondary, of cours without the in-kind trades and cash that was coming in simply to arb the premium. |
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Are we finally seeing the beginning of the end for Grayscale's dominance of the way institutional buyers get exposure to Bitcoin??
Premium has collapsed due to lack of buyers in their primary market. So they've closed the fund, no doubt hoping to build up buy momentum by not allowing buys for a bit. Pretty bad when you are the market leader in the hottest investment in the world but you have to artificially try to inflate your premium/profits by closing the fund.
With other trusts and hedge funds opening up the past couple months, plus the Canadian ETFs just starting recently, I can see the high premium / high fee model of Grayscale starting to seem highly outdated to investors. Premiums and fees should in general shrink close to zero in a world in which there are more and more ways to get into Bitcoin. Not too surprising to see Grayscale market drying up as Wall St gets more and cheaper and more direct options to get into Bitcoin.
Only thing that sucks is that for the past few months we could get a good judgement of institutional buying just from looking at Grayscale, which is obviously not the case anymore.
Negative, premium has collapsed due to lack of buyers in their secondary market. Primary market buys at NAV so directly tied to bitcoin price. As far as it being the end for them, only when better alternatives like ETF come online, until then that's the only game in town for pension funds and people who want to hold paper BTC. |
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bid order book is paper thin, feels like one entity just buying it up
Yeah, but it was also one entity yesterday who dumped it down to 47k ... so ... hope for the best... and today was constantly selling into bulls. Just shows how early we are where one whale can swing the market around like that |
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bid order book is paper thin, feels like one entity just buying it up
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Man... this is not a support group here!!! THis is Not f^cking AA for BTCiTcoin!!!!!!   When? s/he has been on my ignore list since i don't know when, quiet annoying when everyone is quoting him/her |
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Nice BTC150 ask wall in coinbase, someone has been regularly cashing out hundreds of coins there, lets see how many more they got
Edit: and eaten, next bump $50k
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...
Of course, this means you could go and buy a GBTC share and own roughly 0.09 BTC at discount.
This is clearly unbearable for Grayscale who is the first benefiter, together with the primary market buyer, of a high NAV premium.
So Grayscale reacted by closing the primary market for GBTC.
...
Why is this unbearable for Grayscale? Sure no one would buy at discount on primary market so they might as well close that (as they did) but they still continue to collect their daily managing fee on all outstanding shares. And without a way to decrease outstanding shares (no redemption) i doubt they're complaining much. |
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As we were discussing for the necessity of a correction, I am noticing that Net Realised PnL of the market has just turned negative:  https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Market%20Indicators&m=indicators.NetRealizedProfitLossWhat is this? Net Realized Profit/Loss is the net profit or loss of all moved coins, and is defined by the difference of Realized Profit - Realized Loss
So we are basically looking at the difference between Realized Profit denotes the total profit (USD value) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was lower than the price at the current movement.
And of course: Realized Loss denotes the total loss (USD value) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was higher than the price at the current movement.
This means market is coooling off, a lot of traders are now in the red, and the trades making money are now less than those losing money. This balanced situation in the past was a prerequisite for the subsequent ramp up in the market. I think this time won’t be different. A month ago when we crossed this price for the first time we were at ATH. This means that overwhelming majority of transactions are spending UTXOs from within this month. New money just slushing around bloating the blocks, BTC float must be tinier than i thought Edit: can also just be the outflow from exchanges of BTC bought this month e.g. Elon moving his stash to cold wallet |
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Was curious how they'd handle discount And now we know, no new shares, can't imagine anyone would want to pay more for primary shares just to have them locked for 6 months. "The Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust private placement is offered on a periodic basis throughout the year and is currently closed." https://grayscale.co/bitcoin-trust/ |
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Ayre shorts, faketoshi drops bomb on suing devs/jesus/planet/whateves rinse, repeat
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My computationally efficient non-parametric mixed k-fold cross-validated p-ratio analysis model predict a new ATH soon. The p is 1/ avogadro
MMM avocado  |
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Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin
This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges.
The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that.
*Above prices are taken from Deribit.
How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5. I posted a link earlier, here it is again. https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/The WO sometimes must be combed thoroughly, but it usually does deliver good info - be it bitcoin or digital cameras. Or you're just halftrolling and... username checks out?  I don't believe CBOE offers BTC futures anymore. And i don't see Sept futures on CME. They're not trading now but i believe June futures were trading at around 7% premium. What you're forgetting is that CME is cash settled so they won't take your BTC as collateral for margin. Thus you'd actually need to lock up 150%, 100% to hedge with real BTC and then 50% to post for margin. At 150% that would bring actual premium down from 7% to 4,7% As far as risks, you're forgetting that if BTC goes up before your settlement date you're gonna get margin called and will need to come up with more cash, or get automatically closed on a spike. Also transfer times might be an issue, you'd need to sell your BTC and transfer funds to yourself and then to your broker at settlement. Sure there are some premiums to be had if you want to tolerate the risk, just don't try to claim "140% returns with 0 risk" |
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Found this article, maybe a little old: https://blog.bybit.com/insights/why-does-grayscale-seldom-sell-bitcoin/For the time being, the trust is not operating any redemption program. Subject to regulatory approvals and the Sponsor’s approval in its sole discretion, Grayscale Trust may reopen the redemption program in the future. Despite the said possibility, GBTC currently shows no intention of seeking regulatory approval for that.
Without a redemption program, GBTC essentially can only purchase Bitcoin but not sell it. The only scenario that GBTC sells Bitcoins is to cover trust fees and expenses. Yes, for the time being Grayscale is only a Bitcoin guzzlin' machine. Once they issued their shares, in exchange for the subscriber's bitcoin (or money), and they added BTC to their stash, there is no way for those coins out of it. As I said, the only scenario, I see this change in the future, is the launch of an ETF, with powerful selling pressure on their shares. They would then be obliged to buy back their shares to alleviate the negative premium pressure. But I repeat this is the only scenario I can imagine for them to seek approval to open a redemption program. Otherwise, it's only a deal between the share subscriber and the free market. Interesting, i know that they don't offer redemption, but does that imply that they can't do it themselves? If shares are trading at discount, they can't buy up their own shares, sell BTC and destroy the shares? |
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These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels. Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that. There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah.. Did I say, "fuck that?" Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed). You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly...  The thing you fail to grasp is that by selling covered call options to fund my lifestyle and purchases I will not be reducing my stack, In fact it will even help me accumulate more then I could before. What's more, I don't have to risk keeping my BTC on the exchange to still have it fully cover my calls. I can use margin so that those coins are kept in my own wallet (not the exchange). A little diversification is not a bad thing, especially when you don't have to sell BTC from your stack to do it. I think the trouble some of you have with this may be a lack of understanding/experience with derivatives in general. I can get almost 10% per month with covered calls, and my counter-party exchange risk is reduced by using margin. Yes its slightly risky, yes you might miss out on some capital gains, but in the long term it will do pretty fucking well. I’ve done covered calls among other options strategies for years in the legacy markets and I can tell you right now these premiums are amazing in comparision. Thank you? your kidding right? If I had listened to you my stack would have been reduced substantially with your constant insistence of selling BTC on the way up. Now that's a stupid strategy. I can assure you my stack will be much larger at 200k then it is now. The only people to thank around here are the ones that tell you to never sell any of your BTC, unless there is an emergency. Let me help you, and others that might consider listening to you, out. First let me introduce Exhibit A - https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mt._Gox https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BTC-e etc etc etc... and read up on exit scams. Oh you want to hedge your counter party risk by running on a margin? That's cute, let me introduce Exhibit B https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_crash oh you claim to make 120%/yr? this brings me to Exhibit C https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.0 & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BitconnectLooking at Deribit, in order to get 10% premium for March 26 calls you need to sell at $60k strike, meaning that if in 1 month BTC goes up by anything over 7% you'll loose some of your BTC (or as you claim "miss out on some capital gains"). Now you just have to do it consistently every month, and hope Deribit doesn't go the way of Gox. Currently the golden standard seems to be BlockFi that pays just 3%/yr (above BTC2.5) https://blockfi.com/rates/ if you believe you can get considerably more (like 117% more) without taking on additional risk, i got a bridge to sell you Look, there are many different investing strategies, some may be right for you and others not. For me, I no longer want to sell any of my stash (Like you and many others here do), but I would also like to retire, right now. Covered calls is how I can retire and it is a legitimate strategy that has been done for decades in markets of all types. It produces income, and sometimes, some capital gains. I'm prepared to let the other 99% of assets to go for only capital gains while 1% is dedicated to income. I also want a way to generate an income in a downwards market (BTC does this sometimes), this strategy allows it. I really can't understand the hatred that my strategy seems to generate in you and others. I am now more of a hodler than most people because of it, and I always assumed that is what we liked to do around here. Hodl as many coins as possible and for as long as possible. Yes there is risk, I guess I'm just not as risk adverse as you and others here are. Well for one, you're preaching to Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins crowd here. Sure if you want to play with 1% of your stash go ahead, just don't try to claim (or fool yourself into thinking) that making 40x the return of BlockFi is somehow low risk, just because you don't see the risk doesn't mean it's not there.
If you do this with the whole stash, then you better use even more advanced strategies using futures, etc.
planbB (or preston pysh?) is saying that hedgies are on the hook for 1.5 bil already selling futures and buying same amount of spot btc, of vice versa, I don't recall.
Apparently, it is 20% yearly return with practically no risk. It is caused by a significant contango in btc futures..
The futures strategy is no risk because it is a perfect hedge. Easily done through CBOE and CME as well. If anyone has a bunch of fiat not doing anything that they want to generate a yield on, this is a great strategy. Now 20% with no risks and a perfect hedge? ELI5 |
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These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels. Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that. There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah.. Did I say, "fuck that?" Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed). You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly... The thing you fail to grasp is that by selling covered call options to fund my lifestyle and purchases I will not be reducing my stack, In fact it will even help me accumulate more then I could before. What's more, I don't have to risk keeping my BTC on the exchange to still have it fully cover my calls. I can use margin so that those coins are kept in my own wallet (not the exchange). A little diversification is not a bad thing, especially when you don't have to sell BTC from your stack to do it. I think the trouble some of you have with this may be a lack of understanding/experience with derivatives in general. I can get almost 10% per month with covered calls, and my counter-party exchange risk is reduced by using margin. Yes its slightly risky, yes you might miss out on some capital gains, but in the long term it will do pretty fucking well. I’ve done covered calls among other options strategies for years in the legacy markets and I can tell you right now these premiums are amazing in comparision. Thank you? your kidding right? If I had listened to you my stack would have been reduced substantially with your constant insistence of selling BTC on the way up. Now that's a stupid strategy. I can assure you my stack will be much larger at 200k then it is now. The only people to thank around here are the ones that tell you to never sell any of your BTC, unless there is an emergency. Let me help you, and others that might consider listening to you, out. First let me introduce Exhibit A - https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mt._Gox https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BTC-e etc etc etc... and read up on exit scams. Oh you want to hedge your counter party risk by running on a margin? That's cute, let me introduce Exhibit B https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_crash oh you claim to make 120%/yr? this brings me to Exhibit C https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.0 & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BitconnectLooking at Deribit, in order to get 10% premium for March 26 calls you need to sell at $60k strike, meaning that if in 1 month BTC goes up by anything over 7% you'll loose some of your BTC (or as you claim "miss out on some capital gains"). Now you just have to do it consistently every month, and hope Deribit doesn't go the way of Gox. Currently the golden standard seems to be BlockFi that pays just 3%/yr (above BTC2.5) https://blockfi.com/rates/ if you believe you can get considerably more (like 117% more) without taking on additional risk, i got a bridge to sell you |
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