My next withdrawal just changed to pending today, so there were 3 days between withdrawals and 10 days between them being processed. So it's probably going to get worse before it gets better, if ever.

2013/05/14 confirmed
2013/05/10 confirmed
2013/05/08 confirmed
2013/05/07 confirmed
2013/05/06 pending
2013/05/03 processed

I hope some big news is happening soon, and maybe the buyer whale/s already know/s it

of course, I didnt think for one second than any substantial amount of money from $130 down was withdrawn back into bank accounts. There's still quite a bit of latent money sitting on sideline exchanges I imagine.

There is some exciting news that will materialize soon though.

Testing mid 18 again i guess.

We just need to see if that holds.

Greetings, and thank you for the comments and questions.



This really depends on your definition of the word "good".  What do you mean by "good"?

Disciplined traders, who have systematically followed this method, have earned a 484% return in closed profits since the beginning of the year.  Even at the highest level of Mt. Gox commission, they have earned a profit in every month except one this year.

Now is that "good"?  I don't know.  Good is a subjective word which implies a comparison.  I'm sure we could spin the results whichever way desired through comparisons, but as I have stated throughout this thread, I believe that it is an effective and tested method of capturing profits when price trends.

Rather than me just stating my opinion, here is a backtest of the 10/21 crossover for the past 2 years on the daily timeframe, which is what I trade:




Now is this "good"?  I still don't know - beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  What is good for one certainly isn't good for all.  For me, it is an effective and tested method of profiting which suits my nature.



The vast majority of trading signals will be unprofitable.  It really isn't about being right, it's about making money.  Trades must be structured in such a way that the average winning trade is much larger than the average losing trade or you simply will not earn profit in the long run.  A moving average crossover strategy allows you to have potentially unlimited profits while capping your loss size.  This is crucial for successful trading.

There are trade-offs in every endeavor and with every method.  Trend following, by nature, will result in many false and late signals.  It's just the nature of the game but history has shown that by consistently playing it, profits can be earned.

It's essentially Pareto's Principle in action: 20% of your trades will account for 80% of your profits.  It's your job to make sure that the 80% of weak trades do as little damage as possible.



This depends on your definition of "seriously".  What do you mean by "seriously"?

Throughout this thread, I have stressed time and again that it is the duty of a trader to attempt to disprove his method.  Why would you trust your hard-earned money to something which doesn't work?  To directly answer your question: this method has been backtested across decades of trading data and found to be profitable in the majority of liquid asset classes.  In fact, this method is used in most technical analysis textbooks in the chapters on automated and systematic trading precisely because it tends to work over the long run.

In my opinion, I have backtested the method seriously and I believe in the longevity of the results.  But then again, what works for me may not work for you.

Here is what it means to trade the 10/21 crossover:

- When the 10 period moving average is above the 21 period moving average, hold BTC
- When the 10 period moving average is below the 21 period moving average, hold cash

So this means that I will be holding for days, weeks, or even months at a time.  The longer I hold and don't have to trade, the better for me!  I prefer to buy and hold through a massive trend rather than paying commissions, crossing the spread, and churning my account through trading.

Here's a chart to show what I mean.  The red circle shows where I would sell my BTC and the green circle shows where I would buy back.  This means that for this month and a half, I should have held cash and not BTC.



So to directly answer your question: I hold overnight...I hold for as long as the trend remains.



I think we're talking about two different things.  When I say the "daily timeframe", I mean that each bar on the chart I examine is comprised of one day of trading data.  How much data is actually shown on the chart is irrelevant for this exercise.  

When I read your post, the "10-day timeframe" sounds like you have 10-days of information on the chart.  What matters is the what one bar on the chart represents, not how much data is on the chart.  Notice how in my chart above, at the very top it says "1 day bars" - that means that each candle represents the open, low, high, and close for an entire trading day.  This is what I mean by the daily timeframe.

Man darf gespannt sein was passiert, wenn Gox die Fiat Probleme in den Griff bekommt.

New version of Sierrachartfeed and direct-download history files, now with old exchanges for your entertainment

Update 021:

• Corrected crash downloading trade data with negative volume amounts in history (btc24EUR and ruxumUSD),
• Fixed downloading of symbols with no recent trades for months (undocumented API issue),
• Error handling of blank or invalid exchange symbols,
• Faster history download on long periods of no trades.

Update 020:
-Tweak data request sizes.

Update 019:
-Fix error on initial request too large.

Update 018:
-All times in UTC instead of local time (allows easy data file interchange with other users and comparison with other ticker sources),
  REQUIRED: remove all existing C:\SierraChart\data\*.scid files before using this new bridge version.
-properly close IP sockets (not a fix for all 502 errors, apparently)
-faster update,
-remove about 1-5MB of redundant downloading at initialization,
-cosmetic tweaks: error stats and download times on console.

note: when using the single-letter option, there is no space between the option and the parameter


Download links:
http://we.lovebitco.in/schart/sierrachartfeedUTC-0.6.021.exe (3.9MB) (windows 32 bit standalone exe)
http://we.lovebitco.in/schart/sierrachartfeedUTC-0.6.021.py (python 2.7 source - needs github files also)

SCID full history files:
from first recorded trade to 2013-07-18 11:59:59UTC:
(extract to C:\SierraChart\data\ before starting SierraChart)

MtGox only: http://we.lovebitco.in/schart/mtgoxUSD.scid.UTC.7z (21.9MB/221MB)

• mtgoxUSD

Other current exchanges: http://we.lovebitco.in/schart/otherALL.scid.UTC.7z (17.4MB/218MB)

• bit2cILS, bitboxUSD, bitcurexEUR, bitcurexPLN, bitkonanUSD, bitnzNZD, bitstampUSD, btcdeEUR, btceEUR, btceRUR, btceUSD, btchkexHKD, btcnCNY, cbxUSD, crytrEUR, crytrUSD, fbtcEUR, fbtcUSD, fybsgSGD, icbitUSD, intrsngEUR, intrsngGBP, intrsngPLN, justLTC, justNOK, justXRP, kptnSEK, lybitCAD, lybitUSD, mrcdBRL, mtgoxAUD, mtgoxCAD, mtgoxCHF, mtgoxCNY, mtgoxDKK, mtgoxEUR, mtgoxGBP, mtgoxHKD, mtgoxJPY, mtgoxNZD, mtgoxPLN, mtgoxRUB, mtgoxSEK, mtgoxSGD, mtgoxTHB, rippleEUR, rippleUSD, rippleXRP, rmbtbCNY, rockEUR, rockSLL, rockUSD, vcxEUR, vcxUSD, virtexCAD, virwoxSLL, weexAUD, weexCAD, weexUSD

Past/retired exchanges (Tradehill, etc): http://we.lovebitco.in/schart/historic.scid.UTC.7z  (3.4MB/32.9MB)

• aqoinEUR, b2cUSD, b7BGN, b7EUR, b7PLN, b7SAR, b7USD, bbmBRL, bcEUR, bcGBP, bcLREUR, bcLRUSD, bcmBMAUD, bcmBMGAU, bcmBMUSD, bcmLRUSD, bcmMBUSD, bcmPPUSD, bcmPXGAU, bcPGAU, bitchangePLN, bitfloorUSD, bitmarketAUD, bitmarketEUR, bitmarketGBP, bitmarketPLN, bitmarketRUB, bitmarketUSD, bitmeUSD, bitomatPLN, britcoinGBP, btc24EUR, btc24USD, btcexEUR, btcexJPY, btcexRUB, btcexUSD, btcexWMR, btcexWMZ, btcexYAD, btctreeUSD, cryptoxAUD, cryptoxUSD, exchbUSD, freshPLN, globalEUR, globalGBP, globalPLN, globalUSD, imcexEUR, imcexUSD, intrsngUSD, ruxumAUD, ruxumCHF, ruxumEUR, ruxumGBP, ruxumHKD, ruxumHUF, ruxumJPY, ruxumPLN, ruxumRUB, ruxumSEK, ruxumSGD, ruxumTHB, ruxumUAH, ruxumUSD, ruxumZAR, snwcnXRP, thAUD, thCLP, thEUR, thINR, thLRUSD, thUSD, wbxAUD

Seen this before and it never ends good. And have you guys watched the volume on Gox Japan in the recent days? /hint

the website:
http://www.digitalcurrencyresearch.com/
Doesn't load

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=63880.0  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0

This could easily happen if people would stop drinking Coca Cola or searching the internet.  
The trading volume has returned to the level of January. What are we talking about?  

At this moment Gox has $ 13 million in the order book. On the ask side are 115T BTC. This gives a ratio of $ 113 per coin.
Remember that almost all of the dollars will stay on Gox until Gox has solved the withdrawal problem.

At the moment we see on Bitstamp about half a million dollars and a few thousand Coins. What would happend if tens of thousands of coins would be transferred from Gox to Bitstamp? Even if only half of the coins, which are now on Gox would be sold on Bitstamp, we would go back to single digits. But that will not happen in my opinion. Bitstamp has simply taken the role of Dwolla, Liberty Reserve and OKPay for Gox traders. No more and no less. The arbitrage is nothing more than the fee that previously was paid to Dwolla, LR or OKPay. The market has already adjusted to the new conditions.

How should we transfer $ 13 million and more to Bitstamp and why? With all of what is in the accounts there are maybe at least 20 million on Gox. My programs are written for the Gox API. I have no desire to start from scratch on a half done platform like Bitstamp. This is somehow depressing.

I'll take Bitstamp gradually and in addition. It's also interesting because of ripple. But we can not just write-off Gox and all the money. This would be plain crazy and would lead to a massive price drop from which bitcoin probably never will recover. Nobody want that. If Gox goes really broke it will be bought by someone. I'm 100% sure. Bitstamp is only the new Dwolla, Liberty Reserve and OKPay for Gox traders.  

The discrepancy in bitcoin price between mtGox and other exchanges is directly resultant from the inability to make fiat withdrawals from Gox. If this problem didn't exist, it would create an arbitrage opportunity and the free market would quickly bring prices between exchanges to an equilibrium.

The reason there is still so much activity on Gox is because people still use it to convert fiat to btc. Gox has no problem receiving wire transfers, they just seem to have a problem sending them out.

Also, Gox has a more advanced trading platform than the other exchanges. So, a large portion of the activity on Gox is just people trading on the fluctuations in btc with no interest in actually withdrawing their fiat balances. i.e. Today you could have sold 100 btc @ 97 USD and had a fiat balance of $9700 and later today you could have bought 105.4 btc @92 USD. The fact is nearly all of the activity on Gox is just trading like this with no actual withdrawal to USD.

What is unusual is that people are still loyal to gox and using it for this type of trading. Most likely because it still has higher volume and better tools for trading have been developed, so people continue to favor it.

The TRUE price of bitcoin is what you can immediately buy and sell for. What really doesn't make sense is why Gox is still the go to reference for bitcoin price and not bitstamp.

I've started using Bitstamp very recently. So far no problems.

Pretty much instant verification as a customer providing appropriate documentation.

I've decided to stop using GOX. Until they can prove for a period of 6-12 months that they have indeed a professional exchange and team to run such a high volume Bitcoin exchange, I will stay far away from there.

Even the price on gox is "off" when compared to the rest of the exchanges that exist. Roughly $10 gap UP which isn't normal.

I'm talking about (fiat) Market liquidity not about some panic buyers who move the price a few percentage points up.

Market liquidity: "In business, economics or investment, market liquidity is an asset's ability to be sold without causing a significant movement in the price and with minimum loss of value."

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_liquidity

What happens if 50k BTC would be purchased on MtGox to sell them on Bitstamp?
Answer: It's not possible because their is not enough fiat liquidity (money) on Bitstamp.  

Although there is little trading volume at the moment on Gox so this can change every minute.  

Do you seriously think that everyone can sell his fiat in the case of a buy-panic on Gox and sell the bitcoins then on other platforms without fall back to single digits?

I'm glad that normal people not give up so easily as some people do here. I can not believe that some one charge off Gox and believe all would just continue. At least 60% of the fiat money that has been invested in the last years in Bitcoin is on Gox. If this would be gone, then good night. The last one turns off the light. A massiv loss of confidence, the Bitcoin would not recover for years if ever.

I'm only look at the volume. I do not care if the volume is in the order book or in the trades. That can change at any time. But Bitstamp and others have poor volume.