Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[notme]

Cypher, what is your opinion about the recent price increase in gold? Do you think we'll go down further and reach $1000,- after this bounce? Or is it a true change?

Its been a long time since the metals had a day good enough to deserve a trip to this thread to tease Cypher a bit. Go Silver Go

All in good fun, either way, awesome thread and awesome call Cypher.

can't laugh at me. 

my subs know that i covered my shorts right at the end of the day 3 wks ago that Thursday when we hit rock bottom.  same day miscreanity warned

i've been long GDXJ for about a couple of weeks now

[tvbcof]

What would the be the chance these open outcry markets for Bitcoins happening ... would bring an opportunity to expand into bullion and e-bullion sales as well?

Strong. Trading between crypto and precious metals is akin to trading the gold-silver ratio, remaining outside of the fiat system. There will be opportunities everywhere, and not just in crypto/PM exchange.

I'll certainly prefer to exchange BTC for PM's if/when we reach a BTC price level that I want to see or need capital.  PM's are simply more liquid.

I have some hope that eventually there will be demand for BTC such that I can trade them straight across for shit I want, but the sad fact of the matter is that most of the shit I want is held by people who have barely heard of the Internet much less Bitcoin.  Most everyone had heard of gold and silver though, and it's actually a bit surprising to me how many people I meet hold and value these elements out of fear of a SHTF scenario.

I'm already a bit iffy about using face-to-face transactions in exchange for fiat.  I'd be uncomfortable that I'd get in trouble with all the MSB bullshit...if some political entity wanted to make trouble for me at any rate and I would not rule that out.

[Ivanhoe]

Cypher, what is your opinion about the recent price increase in gold? Do you think we'll go down further and reach $1000,- after this bounce? Or is it a true change?

Its been a long time since the metals had a day good enough to deserve a trip to this thread to tease Cypher a bit. Go Silver Go

All in good fun, either way, awesome thread and awesome call Cypher.

can't laugh at me. 

my subs know that i covered my shorts right at the end of the day 3 wks ago that Thursday when we hit rock bottom.  same day miscreanity warned

i've been long GDXJ for about a couple of weeks now

Yeah i saw that post of him,however it doesn't say his opinion about the long term trend. Maybe he bought because he was expecting this bounce.

Cypher, see it as a opportunity to get a new subscriber if this information turns out to be valuable.

[Dusty]

I can't comment on the correctness of this article, but it seems quite on spot:

Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left??? Part III

[molecular]

I can't comment on the correctness of this article, but it seems quite on spot:

Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left??? Part III

Awesome article, well researched and backed with numbers.

This whole "the CBs don't have the gold" to me feels like the whole "the secret agencies are reading most of our online communications" before Snowden did his job.

People will say things like: "but we knew/suspected this before, so nothing really changed" when the truth comes out?

[thezerg]

What would the be the chance these open outcry markets for Bitcoins happening (now in NYC (weekly), L.A. (monthly), San Diego (weekly), San Francisco (weekly), Miami (first one this week), Toronto (first one next week), Berlin (first one this week), and more likely to come) ... would bring an opportunity to expand into bullion and e-bullion sales as well?   (e.g., for DYM shares through Ripple trades, or for physical (e.g., Eagles) or for junk silver?).  Here are links to the individual events:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=261116.msg2786471#msg2786471

Amagi Metals to Lose Bank Account
 - http://bitcoinmagazine.com/amagi-metals-to-lose-bank-account

Introducing Ripple Currency: DYM
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149533.0

I see there was one bullion trade at a recent San Fran Buttonwood event:

Why the Only Real Way to Buy Bitcoins Is on the Streets
 - http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/07/buttonwood

i doubt this would expand to any significant degree.  after all, we've all pointed out the problems of transporting bullion around due to the weight.

unless someone had pre-arranged a sale of a bullion bar, you won't get much more than sales of a coin or two between individuals.  even then, the risk of theft is higher than trading BTC where a password is required.

Nor do I think you will see the suitcases of cash required to trade 1k BTC at these venues (but actually I think if I wanted to trade 10k+ USD, I could carry and trade that in 1oz gold a lot more subtly than cash -- if the buyer does not have to assay the gold).

I'm not sure if the volume per exchange is essential here -- its the ability -- the existence -- of these markets that will continue to drive adoption.  Especially if they grow to one in every major city.  In that case cumulative volume may be non-trivial.  And a key though is that these markets are very amenable to impulse purchases (which I think are more likely to be held or spent -- have lower velocity -- than coins bought on Gox) unlike online exchanges that require difficult method of payment and identity verification.  And adoption will be driven because these markets will exist as another baseline exchange mechanism -- "even if <exchange X> is shut down, I can always head to the park and sell my coins (or phys)."  This becomes yet another answer to the question "what can I DO with bitcoins?"

Also these markets could encourage P2P trading among friends and acquaintances in casual environments.

[Dusty]

Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left??? Part III

Awesome article, well researched and backed with numbers.

Today it seems like the gold traders have not read, though :-/

[myself]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EPGFX:US     

[S3052]

Apparent weakness in silver again—what's up with that?

Testing mid 18 again i guess.

We just need to see if that holds.

the final bottom will likely be in the single digits. this may take 1-2 years

[vokain]

esp when bitcoin goes up Up UP!! I'll enter into the physical PMs game at that point
til then I'll look for good entry points for shorts

[tvbcof]

Apparent weakness in silver again—what's up with that?

Seems to be the consensus among those I pay attention to that gold will lead silver on the next leg up but that silver will outperform as usual.  Nobody seems prepared to call a bottom at this point.  Possibly because some of them have in the recent past and been badly humiliated.

[cypherdoc]

Assuming 18.3 holds up up up.

But if it does not then down down down. And i bet we go down with a quickness. Wonder if there will be enough phiz for us all.

Muhahaha.   Love it when i cant lose!

Yep, when it hits $9 you'll be rich!

[tvbcof]

To all those who are salivating at the thought of the fall of USD, when and if the USD falls, then it will be replaced by Chinese Renminbi. When and if that time comes, you will be sucking the China man's dick.

Couldn't happen to soon.  Being the worlds super-power with troop garrisoned all over the world is provoking a lot of corruption or our original principles as a nation.  After the legacy of death squads, 'signature' drone strikes, Abu Ghriab, etc, a person would have to be a complete imbecile to buy the BS about our 'spreading freedom' or whatever.

It can be legitimately argued that our empire provides 1/4 of the world resources to 'us', but the spoils of war are increasingly mal-distributed so more and more it's the trailer trash that does the dying and the Wall street types that do the wealth accumulation.

As a nation we've got great resources and infrastructure within our borders, and lack a lot of the problems that the Chinese have (especially overpopulation.)  We have the potential to provide a decent quality of life for all of our citizens, or those who will do the bare minimum to participate at least, so I don't fear a fall from our lofty current situation.  There will certainly be an internal struggle to see what class shoulders what percentage of the reduction in inputs (hence ballooning police state apparatus) which is my main concern.

I have pretty close to zero concern about some Chinese guy showing up on the coast and making me suck his dick.  Some honky from Washington DC doing so is a vastly bigger threat to me.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Apparent weakness in silver again—what's up with that?

Seems to be the consensus among those I pay attention to that gold will lead silver on the next leg up but that silver will outperform as usual.  Nobody seems prepared to call a bottom at this point.  Possibly because some of them have in the recent past and been badly humiliated.

I called bottom at $1200 late Jun-early July ... just for the record, not on this board though but my followers (all 2 of them) know.

We'll see I guess.

[thezerg]

Its a good time for an update...

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, nasdaq=3055, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 107.62.  Gold is 1320.00.  Nasdaq is 3687.00
Bitcoin: 1892.96%
Gold:    -21.89%
Nasdaq:  20.69%
Gold Diff:  2452% advantage Bitcoin
Nasdaq Diff:  1551% advantage Bitcoin
2551.5965207631875

[jubalix]

To all those who are salivating at the thought of the fall of USD, when and if the USD falls, then it will be replaced by Chinese Renminbi. When and if that time comes, you will be sucking the China man's dick.

Couldn't happen to soon.  Being the worlds super-power with troop garrisoned all over the world is provoking a lot of corruption or our original principles as a nation.  After the legacy of death squads, 'signature' drone strikes, Abu Ghriab, etc, a person would have to be a complete imbecile to buy the BS about our 'spreading freedom' or whatever.

It can be legitimately argued that our empire provides 1/4 of the world resources to 'us', but the spoils of war are increasingly mal-distributed so more and more it's the trailer trash that does the dying and the Wall street types that do the wealth accumulation.

As a nation we've got great resources and infrastructure within our borders, and lack a lot of the problems that the Chinese have (especially overpopulation.)  We have the potential to provide a decent quality of life for all of our citizens, or those who will do the bare minimum to participate at least, so I don't fear a fall from our lofty current situation.  There will certainly be an internal struggle to see what class shoulders what percentage of the reduction in inputs (hence ballooning police state apparatus) which is my main concern.

I have pretty close to zero concern about some Chinese guy showing up on the coast and making me suck his dick.  Some honky from Washington DC doing so is a vastly bigger threat to me.

However the US has done one thing, it has shown restraint when it had and has now vast nuclear advantage. I wonder what other countries with such and advantage would show the same restraint

[vokain]

To all those who are salivating at the thought of the fall of USD, when and if the USD falls, then it will be replaced by Chinese Renminbi. When and if that time comes, you will be sucking the China man's dick.

Couldn't happen to soon.  Being the worlds super-power with troop garrisoned all over the world is provoking a lot of corruption or our original principles as a nation.  After the legacy of death squads, 'signature' drone strikes, Abu Ghriab, etc, a person would have to be a complete imbecile to buy the BS about our 'spreading freedom' or whatever.

It can be legitimately argued that our empire provides 1/4 of the world resources to 'us', but the spoils of war are increasingly mal-distributed so more and more it's the trailer trash that does the dying and the Wall street types that do the wealth accumulation.

As a nation we've got great resources and infrastructure within our borders, and lack a lot of the problems that the Chinese have (especially overpopulation.)  We have the potential to provide a decent quality of life for all of our citizens, or those who will do the bare minimum to participate at least, so I don't fear a fall from our lofty current situation.  There will certainly be an internal struggle to see what class shoulders what percentage of the reduction in inputs (hence ballooning police state apparatus) which is my main concern.

I have pretty close to zero concern about some Chinese guy showing up on the coast and making me suck his dick.  Some honky from Washington DC doing so is a vastly bigger threat to me.

However the US has done one thing, it has shown restraint when it had and has now vast nuclear advantage. I wonder what other countries with such and advantage would show the same restraint

If they had any sense they would, but perhaps that's too much to expect nowadays

[tvbcof]

To all those who are salivating at the thought of the fall of USD, when and if the USD falls, then it will be replaced by Chinese Renminbi. When and if that time comes, you will be sucking the China man's dick.

Couldn't happen to soon.  Being the worlds super-power with troop garrisoned all over the world is provoking a lot of corruption or our original principles as a nation.  After the legacy of death squads, 'signature' drone strikes, Abu Ghriab, etc, a person would have to be a complete imbecile to buy the BS about our 'spreading freedom' or whatever.

It can be legitimately argued that our empire provides 1/4 of the world resources to 'us', but the spoils of war are increasingly mal-distributed so more and more it's the trailer trash that does the dying and the Wall street types that do the wealth accumulation.

As a nation we've got great resources and infrastructure within our borders, and lack a lot of the problems that the Chinese have (especially overpopulation.)  We have the potential to provide a decent quality of life for all of our citizens, or those who will do the bare minimum to participate at least, so I don't fear a fall from our lofty current situation.  There will certainly be an internal struggle to see what class shoulders what percentage of the reduction in inputs (hence ballooning police state apparatus) which is my main concern.

I have pretty close to zero concern about some Chinese guy showing up on the coast and making me suck his dick.  Some honky from Washington DC doing so is a vastly bigger threat to me.

However the US has done one thing, it has shown restraint when it had and has now vast nuclear advantage. I wonder what other countries with such and advantage would show the same restraint

Probably any nation with the organizational ability to develop nuclear weapons would have show 'restraint' if they were in our position.  We never had the ability to take over and police other populations and no great need for resources that could only be had through genocidal acts.  WW-II opened up other ways of achieving a larger share of the pie for us so it would have been stupid to opt for nuclear war (though various people argued for this from time to time.)

I feel that the US was a different nation 80 years ago.  The main reason I feel this way is that so many top scientist immigrated here and helped up develop nuclear weapons, and largely because they seemed to have confidence in our nation as a force of good.  In fairness it needs to be pointed out that the likes of Germany and the USSR were not much competition in this regard.  Anyway, it is hard to imagine anyone immigrating here now for that reason though plenty of people still come here for the money.  As we descend into a totalitarian surveillance state it will be interesting to see how that impacts the quality of our immigrant population.

[cypherdoc]

silver over mid 18

9 coming up and you'll be rich!

[S3052]

I have some silver orders to be filled by 2016 at 4-5$ and I am positive...