|
JayB, please let us know: should we sell now? Yes or not? If yes - where should we place our bids?
Answer that and prove you can consistently beat the market or you are just a troll.
|
|
|
|
My intention is to research, write about and promote Bitcoin Economics. I have been running a bitcoind full node on a home office server and found that given enough restarts and running duration, bitcoind overcomes its default 8 outgoing connections and accepts incoming connections up to a default maximum of 125. At that point, the network upload bandwidth consumed by bitcoind degrades the performance of other apps on my local area network. To restore overall performance, I arranged for a separate internet connection for the server hosting bitcoind. I chose the least expensive broadband option, with upload bandwidth being the primary criterion. For the past couple of weeks, I have been running bitcoind this way, consuming all the upload bandwidth provided. I mention this because last spring you got me excited about the Supernode concept, and one your points was to run a full node. Would you be interested in helping me promote the establishment of dedicated bitcoind full nodes by bitcoin holders reading this forum? Running a full node is absolutely necessary, especially given the fact that the number of full nodes is currently dangerously low. I always recommend to my acquaintances to run bitcoin-qt, regardless of the hassle related to the first synch. I also recommend them to have it always running. From one side is the most secure client apart from offline solutions; from the other a healthy number of full nodes is absolutely necessary to have a healthy network. |
|
|
|
|
Just cash out gradually using different ways, eg. a bit on stamp, a bit (much less) on Gox, a bit on localbitcoins, a bit OTC.
Just do not risk all your money to a single exchange or trade, diversify and do not put all your eggs in the same basket.
And do not forget to keep a % of your coins for the long run. 20% might be enough, it depends on your needs.
Good luck mate.
|
|
|
|
|
TA is not very useful in a market as tiny as BTC, because one big holder can and will move the market at his will. It's just as a penny stock market. Just look how BTC usually reacts to "bearish pennants": 90% of the times they break upwards when they are supposed to go in the opposite direction.
Still interesting to discuss and analyze the charts, but we all know that b&h is THE strategy for BTC.
|
|
|
|
From another thread: Another insight:
Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.
Something to keep in mind. I'd say that is the opposite. Below a certain volume TA loses effectiveness because large holders can move the market at their will. The bigger the overall volume is, the more difficult for a single entity to significantly move the market. |
|
|
|
On a side-note: that issue of the "news following the waves" got me thinking. I think there's quite some truth to it.
I guess our favorite perma-bear Blitz made a very good example. Price action does indeed "unlock" events. |
|
|
|
Apparently the simpsons reference is negative in that someone lost money in a crash.
Thats bullish. It means it is going mainstream, and for it to grow there has to be fear, caution and negativity in the air. The more "positive" the mainstream is, the closer is market saturation which means "time to sell" |
|
|
|
From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.
It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.
This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.
Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH. Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either. Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions. We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think? (Sorry if I came across too aggressive) It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way. By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market. No problem  I'm not saying we are goint to 300 by monday. Same as you i see the market undecided. So as i see things, under in doubt better be sitting on fiat than BTC until one clearly sees market's direction. I don't mind if i 'loss' a few BTCs on the way and have to repurchase at $1500 at a 'loss', but if i purchase now and there is another dip i will regret later lossing thousans of euros, and euros are valuable to me, not the bitcoins, and i think most traders think the same way. This is why i was talking about greed and denial, trend is always your friend, and trend now is down. If you are now all in BTC is a high risk you take, maybe you can be good or it can turn against you. Better be safe and follow the trend, don't you think? Buying now is quite risky, i want to play safe leaving emotions alone. For some being all fiat is much riskier than being all BTC. Difficult to argue when BTC appreciated 7,000% in the last twelve months - we can't say the same thing on fiat. The "trend" is pretty clear especially if you zoom out. That said, we all need fiat for most of our needs, thus taking profits is sensible and it needs to be done following a rational plan based on personal circumstances and personal needs. I wouldn't advise being "full fiat" though - or wouldn't you hold at least 10% of your stash for the very long term, no matter what?Even luc wrote he is holding 20% of his coins. I'm not surprised, 100% in or out is pure gambling and poor risk management. |
|
|
|
waveaddict, thanks for observations. Actually main trading decisions were on patterns you pointed to.
No problem. I'll always defend a fellow talented TA & EWer  It's truly amazing how often I have to explain basic market concepts and recall basic information in the speculation forum. Trying to educate people of the practicality of EW is the hardest because so many people misunderstand and misuse it. It's one of those ideas/theories that takes weeks to somewhat understand but years to fully appreciate and profit from. Most just quickly learn about it, without fully understanding it, and then fail at it and subsequently blame the idea instead of their own shortcomings. Anything that is worth doing/learning isn't easy! Moreover, it's insulting to have some of these same people argue with and insult you on something they haven't taken the time to understand, especially when you are trying to help them out. If everybody understood and followed EW it just wouldn't work. I'm sorry to state the obvious  |
|
|
|
I sold. For sure. Sold at $1107. Bought back in at $690. Missed the bottom in both directions, but was happy to get SIXTY PERCENT MORE coins than what I had on Friday! WooT!
You sold ALL your BTCs? That's a dangerous gamble. One that historically didn't succeed. - the one that has historically been a winner is pushing BUY at any given moment. You got lucky. Probably you won't in the future. Try to accumulate as much coins as possible and then gradually sell for profit when you hit your targets. Good luck. |
|
|
|
|
You just do not turn your back on an asset that has given you a 7,000% gain in less than 12 months. Calling tops consistently is sheer luck or black magic (what's it, masterluc?)
The only way to rule out emotion is to have a rational plan that fits both your circumstances and your needs.
|
|
|
|
US citizens
This is bad - feeling sorry for you. Why not leaving while you can? because some of us arent allowed to leave or cant afford it. You can't afford leaving the US after having sold 30k coins at $145? Damn. |
|
|
|
I bought at 710 yesterday and am anticipating the dead cat bounce to around 1000 atm. But this only on a side note, the most important question right now: Where is the bottom?
Going with your earlier estimation of a 70% retraction it would put the bottom somewhere around 360$. After some time has passed, if you reassess your prediction, where would you put the target at present?
I am hesitant to predict a bottom, rather I observe that the low of 576 on MtGox is not as severe a drop as the low from the April 10 peak. The price action so far is more typical of a correction than a bubble collapse. Indeed. In any case BTC "bubbles" seem to be shorter and more contained, both in the way up and in subsequent deflation. It also looks like the time between them is getting shorter and shorter. Honest question: should we consider what happened in 2011 and in early 2013 "bubbles"? I don't know if multiple rallies and "pops" that end up higher than when the rally started fit the traditional bubble definition. In 2011 the rally started at $0.8 and the bottom was $1.98 - that's hardly "going bust" In early 2013, the rally started at $12 and the bottom (just 4 months later) was $50 - again, that's hardly "going bust" in my book. The current early December 2013 pattern would fit much better a "first sell off" in the traditional bubble chart - don't you think so? But again, hardly to see other bubbles that had such an immense appreciation in different phases. Let's remember that the famous "south sea bubble" saw on appreciation of only 10x - really nothing compared to BTC. Finally, I do believe that there is a good chance of BTC going to near-zero at some point. But I cannot imagine that process being a slow and painful decline - I imagine it as heavy stone dropping extremely fast (probably fueled by heavily leveraged shorting, something still impossible in BTC) - as bubble pops usually are. |
|
|
|
dont feel bad, i sold 30,000 btc @ 140. patience is a virtue
Patience for? Waiting to buy back at $100 or two digits? Don't let greed cloud your judgment or you will never realize a profit. Good advice. |
|
|
|
My 2 bits I bought during the last run-up, purchasing my last coins at 249. I believe it was that very evening that the crash happened. Then I made the biggest mistake I've made so far. I got bummed out about the crash, lost some of my short term faith in bitcoin, and didn't see the resulting low prices as a buying opportunity. Instead, I slunk off to lick my wounds and pay down debt. I can't tell you how much I wish I had $2000 of that debt remaining, and $2000 worth of <100 coins. With that said, I believe that every single person that didn't buy at <1 wishes they had bought them cheaper. I've decided to be happy that I bought any at all. I didn't bought a <1 but I'm very happy about the price I bought in. Do you know why? Because I bought immediately after first reading about BTC, after a session of 24 hours reading about it non stop - so I got the best possible price considering when I first discovered BTC. Additionally, I increased my stash after the April crash, by both day trading a little and by buying more with fresh funds. Four months later I first bought in, BTC was worth 20 times more; now it is worth 60 times more. Plus, I was very lucky with LTC, and MSC is doing quite well too. I don't know how I could wish anything different than I have. I don't know what you guys do for a living, but seeing an investment growing by 60-100 fold in one year is science fiction in the real world. |
|
|
|
dont feel bad, i sold 30,000 btc @ 140. patience is a virtue
Did you sell in an exchange? Did you manage to withdraw the money quickly and hassle free? I always wonder how easy is to cash out that kind of money considering how shitty are Gox and Bitstamp. |
|
|
|
|
Because I already cashed in so much fiat profit by selling aprox. 10% of my BTC a couple of weeks ago that I don't need to sell any more Bitcoins in the next 3 years... Unless we'll hit $3,000 - then ill sell another 10%.
No need to risk your coins by day trading. If you have a decent volume slippage kills you, and fees are insanely high too.
|
|
|
|
|
The market cap of ripple is already bigger than litecoin. Just multiply the price of 1 XRP per 100 billions.
|
|
|
|
Yes and apparently he is a member of these forums (though what is his username? No one knows) What does he gain by not revealing his identity here (if he is a public person anyway)? Because sane people appreciate their privacy. With his forum "private" identity he might have given details he might not want to be linked with his "public" identity |
|
|
|
The blockchain is what gives bitcoin its intrinsic value: just as gold has a lot of uses apart from it being "money", the block chain has multiple world changing uses apart from being a way of transferring value.
I absolutely agree but struggle with something: How do the blockchain's "multiple world changing uses" give value to the bitcoins themselves? Without bitcoin and its virality fueled by one of the most powerful incentives - greed - the blockchain couldn't spread so quick as it is doing now - and more important, it wouldn't be so secure and the network wouldn't be so big. Some times I entertain the idea that Bitcoin is just a Trojan horse which primary purpose is to spread the blockchain and to secure it as much as possible. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
