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Why is every downwards market movement perceived to be done artificially by some malicious force? What if it is simply that there is not enough buying pressure and the buyers aren't capable of supporting the weight of the market?
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The chances of them dumping it all immediately are the same as Ghash using their occasional 51% to attack us.
Why would someone heavily invested in bitcoin make a concerted effort to destroy it?
Who said anything about destroying bitcoin? It would just be a trade, and once the trade is complete they wouldn't be invested anymore. However, I don't see anyone doing this unless they can buy at least 30% below market rates. In my opinion they sure WILL be able to buy it atleast 10-20% under these market rates, wich means anybody that would sell it would still get almost instant profit of 10-20% it just trully depends on the buyer and we can only hope. That's only a theoretical profit. You have to account for all the risks involved in bitcoin and in the purchase, the risk of market movement inbetween your purchase and when you will actually be able to trade, and the amount that you are going to drive down the market when you are selling. That is why I add an extra margin to make it 30% instead of 10-20%. |
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I bet there are at least a couple traders in all those bidders but they probably won't actually win in the auctions and will be outbid by bulls who won't trade.
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The chances of them dumping it all immediately are the same as Ghash using their occasional 51% to attack us.
Why would someone heavily invested in bitcoin make a concerted effort to destroy it?
Who said anything about destroying bitcoin? It would just be a trade, and once the trade is complete they wouldn't be invested anymore. However, I don't see anyone doing this unless they can buy at least 30% below market rates. |
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? that happening now?
no that was hurricane sandy |
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It seems that the trains are not running on schedule for some reason.  |
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You're comparing apples to oranges by posting a linear chart and comparing it to bitcoin's logarithmic chart. bitcoin is already in a 'curve' because it historically has grown exponentially.
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well, we've seen plenty of volatility over the last 5 yrs and part of it has to do with the ongoing issuance/distribution of new coins. that will probably continue going forward but at a decreasing rate as the curve flattens out. thus, the supply is constantly changing, whereas with gold it for the most part (except for new finds) has stayed steady for hundreds of years and provided a stable supply backing for various fiat currencies.
but like i said above, perhaps if there was an official fixed exchange rate that was high enough to fill up the huge debt hole of USD that the Fed has helped build up, perhaps that would give worldwide investors confidence that the US will finally exert some discipline on what heretofore has been pretty reckless and aggressive expansion of the money supply for hegemonic purposes.
cypherdoc, I think we are mostly in agreement on the big picture and agree a lot with what you've said. Regarding an official fixed exchange rate, I think that could only happen once bitcoin's value was realized and settled down. Once that happens then nations with x amount of bitcoins can fix an exchange rate to y amount of fiat, but that's largely the only way it can happen. For example when the US fixed the gold to currency price, it also had enough stored gold to back all of the dollar claims in gold and as a result there was little reason to exchange dollars for physical gold (which you could do at any bank). However once the FED was created and they started to print more and more dollars, entities which could exchange dollars for gold did so in very significant amounts. In the 60s US citizens could not exchange dollars for gold, but foreign nations could, and they started to withdraw significant amounts of gold because it was well known that there was not enough gold to back all the new dollar at the "official" exchange rate. Nixon only closed the gold window because otherwise within less than 10 years the US would have zero gold left and would have gone bust. That is the problem with fixed official exchange rates, they only work if the fixer sets and honest exchange rate to match the ratio of both assets. The FED could fix an exchange rate, but they then could not print new dollars because doing so would throw off the ratio and start an exit from dollars as more and more people exchange out until the FED ran out of bitcoins. This is exactly what happens every time Argentina or a similar country fixes a dollar exchange rate and then has a currency crisis. Yes, sounds like we are in agreement. But do we really have to wait until 2140 before we can get this plan implemented? Which is why I recommend at least trying to set an official exchange rate in the meantime that is high enough to prevent a run on the reserve bitcoin while allowing reasonable levels of fiat lending. Why would you talk about a time like 2140? Bitcoin will be ancient history by then,EC will be broken, and there will all kinds of technologies 1,000,000 times better. the internet itself will probably be much much different. |
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TERA if there would be a lot of demand for shorting BTC would you think this is bullish?
It's not a demand for bitcoin. It's actually a demand for USD. It's called "USD swap demand" is a market for people to borrow USD, based on the interest rate. |
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Guys please stop getting mad at me for posting charts of how a downwards scenario would play out. My charts are mostly geared towards swing traders and daytraders so they would know where good trading points are if certain scenarios play out, where to find support and resistance, and how to watch for a breakout. NONE of my postings just tell people to sell their bitcoins now. In fact, for people who don't want to bother with trading, I recommend a long term holding strategy, as I am very bullish on a 2-5 year perspective and think that $10,000+ could be reached.
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I just point out TA, patterns, and fractals. No agenda. If technicals were more bullish, my charts would be too. KEep in mind also they are not predictions but possibilities. There is a possibility also of a rally, if the right events develop.
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Nobody is going to give themselves only a 10% profit margin if they are pessimistic. In fact professionals don't like trading against the market period. So most of the buyers are probably bulls, unless they're sending ridiculously low-ball offers like $200 per coin.
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You're talking about manipulation of billion dollar trades versus manipulation to a acquire a million dollars worth of bitcoin. the calibre of investor who engages in the former is not going to risk their operation by taking extra risks to engage in the second. That was my point. The amounts of money involved here with this bitcoin auction are peanuts compared to the amount of money that the buyers are used to playing with so why would they bother with market manipulation? |
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Pre-gox failure there was this other trendline that broke and 1 day MACD went down but we didn't start crashing right away. Instead the bulls were stubborn and held the fib line at 800 for a month. Longs went to an all time high until they were finally dumped in February - bfx data confirms. We have a similar situation now but with a bigger trendline and with the 3 day MACD instead of the 1 day MACD and longs are at an all time high. Once the trendline breaks and the 3 day MACD goes down the longs might still hold the 550 fib for a month before they dump.   It has to be clear that the trendline is broken; not just that it's being tested. |
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TERA, is it possible to guesstimate when the (mass?) forced closure of longs will happen?
I believe that the market still has about a week of consolidation before deciding on major direction.
BFX could be the market leader, in a bearish way, ultimately meaning it could trigger capitulation.
When we were at $680 I originally predicted a drop to $560 followed by a month of consolidation at $600 before picking direction. Of course everyone laughed at me then, called me an uberbear and thought that was ridiculous and impossible. Instead it turned out even worse than I predicted. It dropped to $537 ($522 on finex) and its been about a week of consolidation but 600 cant seem to hold. I'm not sure what will happen. I still think the trendline will be somewhat tough to break. It might be like the premtgox action at $800. Who knows. Also the longs probably wont all be dumped at once - many will hold for bounces in the 400s. |
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Thankyou for the explanation TERA.
Technically the market was supported on a bubble that will burst if no more money is put in and this will make the price fall?
Correct ?
Duke
I'm not really sure. There may have been some offline block purchasing also. |
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Just speculating here.
If you were a whale with a large holding and were able to manipulate the market and were also looking at getting some of these FBI/SR coins, would it not be in your best interests to try and drive the market price down before the auction so that you could acquire the coins at auction at the lowest possible price ?
Given the calibre of the participants of the auction, and who they are buying the coins from, I don't think they are going to be doing market manipulation like that. If Rashid Mohamed Indian whale was buying coins from Mark Kerpeles then maybe he'd do that but not when U.S. business CEO is buying from U.S. marshall. |
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It's bearish. The amount of money loaned out to take longs is now at an all time high meaning prices have been supported on fake money. Now the supply of real money to lend out has dried up which results in the supply/demand you mentioned. This is going to cause interest rates to rise. The higher interest rates will force people to dump as it is no longer profitable to hold with the way the trend currently is. This could end up turning into a cascade of stop losses and margin calls as 40,000BTC purchased with loaned money are dumped.
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Bitcoin moves due to technical forces; not just news.
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So how many log units below the trendline are we now?
Are we still on track for $1,000,000 in 2017?
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