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7521  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: June 04, 2011, 12:00:06 AM
Suggester has been wrong for 18 months, why should we believe anything will change?

Just a reminder of how "wrong" I've been for 18 months:


Doesn't look like perpetual deflation. Doesn't look like a crazy horse. Doesn't look like a speculators' den. Doesn't look like a nerve-wrecker with each single transaction. No, It's a perfectly sensible stable currency with a promising future.

So you are heavily invested and quite wealthy from all your gains then? If you predicted this so perfectly why haven't you profited, altruism?

What happens next sooth-sayer?
7522  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: June 03, 2011, 11:57:09 PM
That's just one big offer.  I cannot tell if this is the same thing this time - but I've seen someone manipulating the market in this manner.
now there is two. Smiley i also seen it before.
and its likely that the price will fall in a correction... i happed before, after a big rise.
i sold mine at $10.

Could be those early adopters are fire-hosing this thing down so it cools off a little. Run away rallies would be detrimental to the long term success. If true it presents a very good case for the long term success, with an indication of insight, foresight, etc of what is needed to roll this thing out successfully ... they are relinquishing some part of possible future gains to cement in major future gains .... and then again it could all be speculation and it is some miner who needs to take a dump.
7523  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: gpu-watch: dynamic GPU temperature monitoring and fan control on: June 03, 2011, 11:48:22 PM

I've found changing clock speeds while hashing can cause lock-ups, i.e. even near clock speeds that can be stable if set before launching.

Scripts changing clock speeds is not such a good idea imo.
7524  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: June 03, 2011, 11:44:58 PM

Suggester has been wrong for 18 months, why should we believe anything will change?

It must suck knowing that you could have been a pizza delivery boy just once in your life, see 2 pizza for 10,000 BTC, and you would be well ahead right now.

These grapes are getting too sour to even look at, can someone close this thread already?
7525  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin's Biggest Downfall on: June 03, 2011, 11:29:01 PM
Having the underwater cables cut vs. overcoming the problems that caused other digital currencies to fail are two different things.

Not doing anything about these weaknesses and letting them go is what makes projects like this fail.

If bitcoin did not have to pay for it's electricity, it would have a major advantage over previous digital currencies. The sun, wind, and water flowing, would be running it. Not oil secured through war and shipped back or some other finite controllable resource like natural gas or coal.

It's a strategic separation.

Bitcoin's value rests on the whole underlying system of dollars, which it seeks to replace, to function, in order for it to pay for its electricity.

So what. It is using the old system to bootstrap the new. Wouldn't be the first tech. to do that ... or maybe you can start marketing solar/wind/hydro tech. to miners instead of just talking about "it'll never work", if you are genuinely concerned that is.
7526  Other / Off-topic / Re: the last words in the movie "Matrix" on: June 03, 2011, 11:20:36 PM
He fights for the users.

Edit: Found it ... just doesn't have the guitar slash at the end ....

http://new.wavlist.com/movies/043/mtrx-iknow.wav

edit2: this one does.  Smiley

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYw2nj36NCM&feature=related
7527  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Political Orientation on: June 03, 2011, 03:52:35 PM
I'm a leftist.

Yeah .... that doesn't really compute with me ... what ?? ... how ?? ... did you skip the Soviet Russia chapter in your history classes? smoking pot that day? I don't understand.

If I have cancer in the states, I'll go broke. If I have cancer in Spain... I won't pay a dime for the best treatment. And we pay a minor percetage for our health care than people working in USA.

We pay less, we get more. Socialized health care is more efficient (for the people, not for corportations) than privatized health care.

Yeah, but your country is busted ass broke. How does that work?
7528  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: June 03, 2011, 03:18:18 PM

SuggesterCoin

any coin will do.
7529  Economy / Economics / Re: A few thoughts on bootstrapping bitcoin and mining on: June 03, 2011, 02:25:53 PM

So are you guys saying that the value of bitcoin is being held down by the cost of mining?

Anchored as it were?
7530  Other / Off-topic / Re: the last words in the movie "Matrix" on: June 03, 2011, 01:27:54 PM
The first part was EPIC! It's the greatest metaphor to the way we live.

Early hours after a delivery from Silk Road is when it really hits home (if I knew how to find it).

/plausible_deniability
7531  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the average Bitcoin user like in the physical world? on: June 03, 2011, 01:26:09 PM

Black, female, middle-aged, ignorant, vivacious ... I guess I don't fit in here.

Why the need for stereotypes?
7532  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will bitcoin bring the worst Schumpeterian crisis of the century? on: June 03, 2011, 01:23:59 PM
You people are fools if you think the banks and the power behind the money are just going to let something like that happen.   That of course meaning bitcoin making them obsolete.   You think they got where they are today because they are stupid?  You think the great crash and bailouts was an *accident?*



Describe their options.
7533  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Resources are being utterly and completely wasted on mining Bitcoins on: June 03, 2011, 01:15:26 PM

Quote
The work is essential to securing Bitcoin transactions, and thus Bitcoin itself.

This argument has traction only if racing to solve useless hard problems ("waste") is shown to be essential in securing distributed currencies.

While I won't deny for a second that 'Satoshi' had a deep insight, his method is not by any means the only way to achieve Byzantine fault tolerance for the coin database. The literature contains extensive proofs for algorithms that can withstand up to one third traitor nodes without use of PKI, and unlimited traitors with PKI. These algorithms might not be practical from a communication overhead stand-point, but they don't lead to a wasteful arms race.
The second claim for the need of waste is to provide artificial scarcity. It's easy to envision a system where scarcity is generated by a central bank which digital signs monetary tokens; the challenge would then be to either distribute such a system in the absence of a central bank, again with Byzantine agreement on the number of minted tokens and their initial owners.

As it is, the waste should be accepted as a challenge of the current Bitcoin implementation, not embraced as the only imaginable solution.

the entire energy used in the bitcoin network could produce 339250 tons of steel.

3 hundred thousand tons of steel ?! For a toy internet currency that, aside from being a vehicle of speculation/investment, is only accepted by a few hundred tiny sites ?
Maybe some scale is required. A phrase from 'Satoshi' in the initial version of the FAQ:

Quote
When Bitcoins start having real exchange value, the competition for coin creation will drive the price of electricity needed for generating a coin close to the value of the coin

Let's assume Bitcoin becomes hugely successful and manages to displace the US dollar tomorrow. The total quantity of dollars that make up the monetary base (the most liquid money that bitcoin would replace) is on the order of 2 trillion, so if their value is substituted with  bitcoins, the 12 million bitcoins generated in the next 10 years (6 million -> 18 million) will be worth today about 1.3 trillion $. If we equate that value with the price of electricity as per the quote above we get 26 trillion KWh at current wholesale prices. That's more than the entire energy production of the world in a single year ! During the ten year period, minting bitcoins would require 70% of the electricity production of the United States !

While I agree Bitcoin will not replace the dollar, and it will certainly not do so tomorrow, using the correct scale shows just how bad a design is. A smaller Bitcoin is not less bad, just bad on a smaller scale, a local toxic spill as opposed to a full blown Exxon Valdez.

Mind you, I have ignored the hardware requirements which will likely dominate mining and that have more important impacts on the environment than the electricity consumption. In a real scenario, the electricity consumption will be lower, while the environmental impacts will be higher (manufacturing is more damaging than electricity production for a given revenue level; electricity can come from nuclear, hydro, etc. while copper can't be extracted without carving up some mountain).
I challenge anyone to reflect on how all this compares with the current financial sector, and prove how Bitcoin can be seen as an improvement.


Tosh. Your numbers are all to hell. Probably a troll. I can't be bothered anymore.

Edit: okay, couldn't resist, currently running at around 2.6 MWatt ... 1 big wind turbine, (measuring energy in weight of steel is sign of a quack). At high enough BTC value, capital cost will be less than energy cost and FPGA will take over ...
7534  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I just thought of something: DEFLATION! on: June 03, 2011, 01:10:41 PM
Awww, c'mon. Where's your sense of adventure?

The golden ring to rule them all.

Edit: this short little vid has the best explanation, economically speaking, I thought.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDcdE9ngx08
7535  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will bitcoin bring the worst Schumpeterian crisis of the century? on: June 03, 2011, 01:04:06 PM

banksters are gonna have to learn C++ and scrape for a living like the rest of us ... well except the "early adopters"  Cheesy
7536  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Letter to the EFF on: June 03, 2011, 12:35:39 PM
There's also the issue that the EFF will probably be defending Bitcoin in the near future.
Possessing an income stream in Bitcoin would be a bit of a conflict of interest.

The opposite view on that one, is by using bitcoin they are legitimising it and implicitly giving their okay on the legality. To do otherwise, is to lend more legitimacy than they should to the state scrip.

They leave themselves vulnerable to the decisive question, "Why don't you use bitcoin?".
7537  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoins will die – an economics standpoint and possible solutions on: June 03, 2011, 11:57:05 AM

There will be no deflation because bitcoin are in a free market for currencies now the cat is out of the bag. Unlike the govt. monopoly on fiat, there will be created as many flavours of these things as the market demands.

Already, we have namecoins that can do dns BUT they will also be traded/stored/exchanged exactly like bitcoins and after them will Torcoins, and Bitgold and Bitsilver and Bitpot and who knows what else ... it is a brave new era. Sorry no deflation, try again, bitcoins will live.

https://exchange.bitparking.com/main
7538  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Orphanned block data? on: June 03, 2011, 09:18:57 AM
Okay thanks. And that will then be all orphans that occurred network wide, not just local ones.

No, it's just local ones. There's no way to get all network-wide orphan blocks. Some might only spread to a few dozen peers.

Interesting, so there is no one true block chain, except for the core. They are distinguishable by their orphans.

Is it possible to "combine" two different block chain data sets, i.e. have the orphans (and other diff. data) added to a new chain containing both sets of information?
7539  Other / Archival / Re: Silk Road: anonymous marketplace. Feedback requested :) on: June 03, 2011, 09:12:45 AM

An Open Transactions layer on top of bitcoin would provide true anonymity if somebody wanted it,

https://github.com/FellowTraveler/Open-Transactions/wiki

client gui
https://github.com/FellowTraveler/Moneychanger

Just issue your own truly anonymous, bitcoin-backed currency  Smiley

But it transfers much of the financial risk to a centralised issuer of the bitcoin-backed OT tokens, unless there were a network of OT servers or someone large like a bank or MtGox (which is already a somewhat centralised risk anyway).

I was just discussing with a friend the idea of a Bitcoin bank that existed solely in cipherspace. In order to establish trust and hedge against risk, the bank could create an account accessible by some majority of investors in case of fraud, theft, or data loss. Perhaps this could be done with a multi-signed transaction?

It seems like OpenTransactions provides the perfect toolset to do this on top of Bitcoin. I'm pretty sure I've seen discussion on ways for some entity to prove that it is holding full reserves.

For some assets you issue will need to prove reserves somehow.

But for bitcoin-backed OT currencies I'm not sure that you will even have to prove reserves, but do not quote me on that because I need to look into it some more. May depend on how the issuing is performed. The whole thing could be put up on Tor, call them TorCoin, issued from an OT server driven Tor-issuer ... right next door to the Tor shop of your choosing.

Definitely worth a look and looks like the development is on-going, pretty close to having something functional I'd say.
7540  Economy / Economics / Re: we just hit 10 USD on: June 03, 2011, 09:04:50 AM
What about when the Al Jazeera story hits, some Saudi prince sees it and decides to switch the reserve currency of oil to bitcoin. 

Muslim elders/scholars/lawyers could declare that bitcoin is in compliance with Islamic law, unlike trashy heathen fiat fun-bux.

Also, Hugo Chavez might decree bitcoins be the new People's Currency, and only sell oil to the Imperial swine for them.

The mullahs will appreciate bitcoin.
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