Speaking in fractals, both. there needs to terminate a minor c wave of B before we can begin wave C major. minor wave c might be done sooner and shallower than I expect. the major C wave should take us to 450.

China and the west are playing a different game. I think we should not try to play the retracment down, rather just buy when it gets there. a break above 390 highs or 2350 in china would mean wave C has begun. while I firmly believe we need more retracement, I will be tracking impulsive counts in this case.

Hey eboard10,

I have had that idea myself. It is certainly possible, although I think best just to wait and see. wave V will be readable as it comes.

I agree that we need a deeper retracement of wave A, I would only expect 0.618, 320 or so seems fair. At this rate it looks like it will take a long time. If we break 300, I dont think that means we are still in wave III, only a break of 275 would have me guessing, but it would be either wave III or wave V, equally unlikely imo.

Thanks for your comments.

and sorry for the confusion - the upside swing is invalidated if huobi passes under 2180.... seems to be threatening now. bigger pictre has not changed, we want to be in the 310-330 range.

would be risky to trade the upswing it seems, apart from huobi, no other exchange has given such confirmation. the trade we are ultimately looking toward is buy at 430.

There is only one B in the above chart, not b. I think we are going to 375.

By the way we are reacting to these levels, an extended B wave here is not unlikely. this is what to watch for. the market is still short term bearish. EDIT: huobi has just strongly reacted to this level, I believe this is the current count. close shorts, sell higher up.

OK. seems like b wave has terminated cerca 0.618 of a. a stop above the local top, 370, is an excellent risk reward opportunity for shorts. target 330.

We have not made a significant retracement of wave A, and I expect one. This is one option that caters for a wave B.



I would wait for a strong confirmation before shorting this one, something that might not come. We are still looking towards buy targets of 330.

If we break through 390 in an impulsive fashion, then I will try provide an entry point for the impulsive wave to cerca 450. This is NOT a long term hold position.

I am not confident that this c wave will play out as expected as we have broken the local down trend - looking for a better signal.

thanks, have a great day trading.

A triangle would be a VERY shallow correction. we 90% expect greater than 0.382 correction, and in corrective waves deep corrections are most common. 0.618 would take us to 320ish, I am expecting at least 335.

C wave forecast remains in tact. target cerca 330.

This is a short term forecast.

The initial point of this post was to identify levels of confirmation of wave C termination. Today I am fairly confident on the smaller scale that wave C is not complete. Here is the current preferred count.

420 is not unreasonable, but for the moment I think that's looking too far ahead. Lets look for a wave B, deep retrace, 0.618, cerca 300. let the beast turn and buy. Targets will be clear at the end of C if it is an impulse (IV could be a triangle - in which case we just topped, unlikely)

Thanks, I hope you find it useful in the coming weeks.

I have to give you credit for this count, you received your C wave, although it changes the bigger picture here.

Remember that if we correct sharply here we should not try pick the bottom, rather wait for confirmation or a 270 retest.