Too rich for my blood.

0.0000004 BTC

I bow to the impersonal power of mathematics.
I feel confident that I could profit from my bid.

Since you did not specify a starting bid. I must bid 0.0000001 BTC. 

If the hash rate dropped by 90%, then it would take a couple of months to get to the next difficulty adjustment.
Meanwhile, pictures of cats would be viewed on the internet.

I think what would happen would depend more on why 90% of the hash rate disappeared, than the fact that it did.
For instance: If a backlash by governments arresting miners caused it, then Bitcoin itself would be under attack and I don't think people's first worry would be the block reward.

I know exactly what you mean.

Worst case is BFL's chips MTBF is 3 months.
Second worse case is the chip lot distribution much worse than BFL claims (I'd rather pay $90 for a known product than $75 and trust BFL's math
Third worst case is the community also has trouble getting boards to work causing delays (BFL was not incompetent, the chips are finicky and not a slam dunk to support on a board)
Fourth worst case is KNCMiner delivers early with better bang for the buck and hashrate goes through the roof.
Fifth worst case, Tebow starts at QB for the patriots.

I know you know.

Global foundries can reliably make chips.
If you could order the chip direct from GF without going through BFL, then you would have no worries (other than the chip being sensitive to heat damage due to poor design, or something weird like that). Since BFL is involved, delays and broken promises are to be expected given BFL's track record. The exact form those delays will manifest as cannot be predicted.

It would be a delight for once to listen to BFL say "Two more weeks! (TM)" and have it arrive in less than 14 days.

The argument has not changed. If he had not bought BFL, he would still have the option to spend 80 of his 200 BTC to buy an Avalon batch 3 and still be able to recoup that investment.

I never forgot what I was arguing about. You confused the issue with exchange rates. No exchange was needed. The BFL's could be bought with BTC. The Avalon miner could be bought with BTC. They both only produce BTC. Mezzomix had BTC.

Compare apples to apples please. Stop converting the BTC (which can buy both Avalons and BFL units) into other units of exchange at various times to try to make BFL look good.

Compare apples to apples. He spent BTC to gain more BTC and instead gained less. Simple. Straightforward. No exchange rate needed to illustrate that he lost out picking BFL in June 2012.

The batch 3 Avalon unit can still earn back it's 80 BTC and therefore can still be profitable. Maybe BTC are each worth $1 each by then, maybe $100 each, maybe $1000 each, but we don't need to speculate on the future exchange rate. As long as the Avalon can earn more than 80 BTC it can be profitable.

Had he not spent his 200 BTC on BFL he could have gotten a much better deal with Avalon later on because the 200 BTC would be available for an alternative investment. One possible alternative investment could have gotten over twice the hash rate. Simple, Straightforward. No exchange rate needed to illustrate that.

Mezzomix paid 200 BTC for a device from BFL that cannot earn 200 BTC.
You have agreed that this is not good.

Mezzomix is entitled to complain because the only thing that could have changed his fortune is if BFL delivered the Single before the difficulty went ballistic.
There is no current or future exchange rate into any alternate currency that can make Mezzomix's investment in BFL better than not investing in BFL when he did. Past exchange rates cannot change because they are in the past. So exchange rates are not relevant. We are not measuring just how screwed Mezzomix was by BFL, we are simply saying that he was better off not buying a BFL single back in June 2012. This is simple math. Obviously, the more valuable BTC become in USD, the more USD Mezzomix has lost. But we are not talking about losing USD, we are talking about losing BTC by spending BTC to buy a device to mine BTC.

All hope is not lost however. If difficulty ever stops rising for long enough, then Mezzomix will eventually earn his BTC back.
Maybe all the Avalons stop working due to shoddy manufacturing...

I hope that commentary includes how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.


That does not explain how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.

It does not explain how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.

Still no explanation of how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.



We do not need to discuss opportunity cost to determine that Mezzomix is worse off for buying BFL. If you want to demonstrate that Mezzomix is even worse off because of the lost opportunity cost of using that 200 BTC instead of having BFL hold it for 11 months and counting.

There is no need to consider exchange rate because Mezzomix paid BTC for his order. BFL allows you to pay BTC for orders. Bitcoin leaves Mezzomix's wallet, and BFL gives him a pre-order for equipment that does nothing but generate BTC. You are including other variables because you are desperate to deflect this fact.
You and hexed brought up exchange rate, not Mezzomix and not I.

Neither of you are willing to explain how Mezzomix is better off with less BTC than he started with.
Your tedious convolutions only expose you as blind shills who attack everything that criticizes BFL.

The sole purpose of BFL hardware is to mine BTC. Thank you for agreeing with me and Mezzomix.


More than just several. I wish you would stop including them.


You keep bringing up random statements (duct tape and rockets) that have nothing to do with the original premise which was:

Yes, he chose poorly. He will probably never get his 200 BTC back. Thus his was not a "bullshit statement" as you earlier claimed and have now recanted.

These are also words that you have typed into a computer, but it has nothing to do with Mezzomix and his BFL order.

He might be referring to your thread title which says 500Mhs Mining Rig. It should say 500Gh/s mining rig. It is the title of a thread complaining about incorrect information on a website.

This irony is deep fried and covered in powdered sugar. 

The more you pretend that Mezzomix made money by ordering from BFL, the more people realize that you are just here to deny all anti-BFL positions.
When people read your posts, they will realize that the only people left defending BFL are those that cannot do simple math.

If BFL had delivered when they said they would deliver, the investment would have been good. They did not, so the investment was bad.

This discussion has been completely sidetracked on irrelevant statements.
Let us refocus it to what was originally stated by hexed and that I disagreed with:


Hexed is wrong, Mezzomix is right.

My reply was:

We do not need to consider why difficulty rose. We do not need to consider alternative investments like Avalon or ASICMiner shares. We do not need to consider exchange rates. Nobody has yet explained why getting less than 200 BTC back was good for Mezzomix.

Right now, 5GH/s will earn 5 BTC per month according to http://dustcoin.com/mining.
June orders for Jalapenos will have paid roughly 22 BTC for a Jalapeno, that can be made back eventually I think since they have been hashing for a while already.
August and September orders for Jalapenos will have paid 15 BTC. If they get their devices today, they will probably make their BTC back and a little extra.

Single and Mini-rig orders from June are doomed unless the difficulty stops rising.

We do not need to speculate now about what the rise in the exchange rate over the last 3 months did to the difficulty over the last 3 months. We know what it did to the difficulty. There is no more speculation about difficulty or exchange rates involved. We can now determine (baring a freeze in difficulty) that a BFL order for a Single for 200 BTC was a bad investment.

I edited my post, but nobody picked up the edit so I will repost it here:

Name those factors?
It is not the exchange rate. The customer traded BTC for a device that creates BTC.
The only way that can make sense is if the device will ultimately produce more BTC than the customer gave up for it.

Now if he could sell that order (or device upon shipment) for 201 BTC, then he would be slightly better off than having done nothing and merely keeping his 200 BTC.

Not entirely true. At this customer's time of purchase, had someone bought ASICMIner shares or Avalon batch 1 or 2, they would be better off than if they kept their BTC.