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881  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2020, 02:31:26 PM
Good morning Bitcoinland.

Bouncy bouncy. After briefly touching 5 digits we're back in the mid-$9xxx range again... currently $9635USD/$13006CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Did someone mention boring?

Man-Bear-Whales

Ahhh. The memories.



An historic event in Bitcoin's history, the slaying of Man-Bear-Whale Oct 6, 2014:

https://vimeo.com/273629899

I got lucky and watched it as it happened.

Spartan support at $300.

I've read about this epic moment in Bitcoin history, but for the first time I saw that video. Impressive! I have no doubts that all the bears will be slayed like this.  Grin And if the bear feels bad now at 9K, imagine how bad it will feel at 100K.
882  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2020, 11:43:16 AM
coinbase - lol

Either the world's most pathehtic crash attempt or just a fatfinger 900BTC sell to $9600. Other exchanges didn't react. Someone may need one of those:

883  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 09, 2020, 07:01:56 AM
I like this kind of TA:

  • if price goes up, it could go ... up further or go down
  • if price goes down, it could ... down further or go up

 Grin

In all fairness, describing price targets is also part of TA but I'd rather read someone who is willing to make a call and just stand with it.
Now it's a perfect TA analysis - 100% accurate!
884  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 08, 2020, 02:37:14 PM
I have a gut feeling that we might visit 9100 soon.  Undecided

The longer we stay in this range 9600-9800 the better. Real investors don't want to take profits. This is evident by various markets statistics. As for the traders, we had several profit takings, or should I say stop losses. When they check the balance and see they left with 10% of their initial investment, they realize there is no point in another cut loss deal. That's why typically in a bull market, 1-2 months sideway movements with several 5-10% recoveries are followed by a 40-50% increase.

The only problem about 10K is that it is a psychological barrier. Many people just don't want to buy above 10K. It is too expensive, you know. Which always brings to my mind three young friends of mine which are IT specialists. They heard from me about Bitcoin in 2017, made their research and.... started trading eth and xrp in Binance. I warned them no to do this, but they didn't listen to me. This is descriptive about the trading skills of most traders, IMO. People who are tech savvy and think they are smart enough to make profits by trading. They don't understand that only 1% of the most experienced traders can make profits. Anyway, the increased demand like 40% per year vs 1.8% year inflation is a good premise for the next big bull run. I think we are at its very beginning. Surely, some nasty manipulators can delay it by several weeks or even months, but it is inevitable.
885  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2020, 02:50:27 PM
~100 million
Number of Bitcoin Owners
There are only 30 million (source: https://gz.blockchair.com/bitcoin/addresses/ ) Bitcoin addresses with a balance, so this can't be true.
And I assume most Bitcoin users have more than 1 funded address.
I don't know how glassnode counts only 30 million addresses, since only Coinbase has over 30 million customers (and blockchain over 40 million). I think glassnode counts wallets not addresses and thus each exchange with millions of users (which may not have other wallets) is counted as 1 wallet.
886  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2020, 02:34:52 PM
I don't know whether this was posted here before, but it is useful to see these estimations anyway:
https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoin-users/

~100 million
Number of Bitcoin Owners

~400,000
Number of Daily Bitcoin Users

~200 million
How Many Bitcoin Wallets Are There?

~53 million
Number of Bitcoin Traders

"Blockchain.com reported 31,914,414 users on January 1, 2019 and around 45 million on January 1, 2020. This is a 41% increase for the year. Interestingly, the total number of UTXO's (unspent Bitcoins) grew from 49 million on January 1, 2019 to 65 million a year later. This is an increase of 33%."
887  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2020, 01:14:51 PM
Are we still playing this old game - Sunday dump? I thought we switched to the new version - Sunday pump.

888  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2020, 07:04:45 AM
Recently: both USD to EUR and USD to Bitcoin - lolz.  I'm starting to think that Bitcoin going to a new ATH could be achieved soon just by holding parity with EUR. #escapethesystem #strongHats

Mnuchin: usd is not fake money and not used by criminals - lol

889  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 09:25:49 PM

I remember that Bulgaria had proclaimed to have been HODLing more than 200k BTC from the proceeds of various crimes.. or something like that, but I do not recall ever hearing about any proclamation or news that they no longer HODL such BTC, and surely they could choose to diversify (like you said), but diversification does not seem to make a whole lot of sense, except admittedly, most traditional financial advisors would likely believe that they understand gold better than bitcoin, and likely would be more comfortable in HODLing value in gold than in BTC... even though many of us BTC advocates have difficulties considering gold as being anywhere close to bitcoin in terms of actual upside potential (surely, the view of a BTC advocate is in competition with the concept of the perceived "store of value" narrative that would be difficult to shake from the heads of a lot of traditional investors).

Bulgaria, my country for good or worse. The only thing which I am proud as bulgarian is that we saved our jews during the WW2 despite being allies with the germans. A country with 1340 years of history, always fighting with the giants for the right to exist. Currently, the poorest country in EU (I mean 10 times smaller salaries for the same prices of goods), with the worst corruption in all floors of the goverment, with high negative growth and with the highest mortality rate in the world! Luckily, the 3rd country in Europe with the lowest number of  covid-19 positive people from 1 million. We have several gold mines, but our country has extremely little profit from them. The reason - corrupted politicians who steal everything. Even if we were floating in oil or sitting above gold, the people would be still starving. For example, the former communists desguised as socialists drove the coutnry to a hyper-inflation in 1996, when the monthly salaries were equal to one bread.

Yes, several years ago an international criminal group was arrested with the aid of Interpol.  Rumors say that the goverment already sold their 200K bitcoins https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@j1v/200000-bitcoins-sold-recently-by-bulgarian-goverment. I am not sure about that, because seizure of computers does not mean they found the keys. The official report was that criminals operated with bitcoins and nothing more. I don't trust yellow papers and sites. The truth is that our police, government and judicary are extremely old fashioned. They can't even seize the money of phoney bankers and hazard bosses like Tsvetan Vassilev and Bojkov, who stole from the government several billions of euros. I watched every interview and I noticed that the word keys was never used. The explanations were that from the seized computers were made transactions of bitcoins. They were stupid enough to admit that nobody can get access to these bitcoins. Since I really doubt that the criminals wrote the keys on the desktop, my guess is that the bitcoins are really not in the possesion of the goverment. May be some day when the criminals are out of jail they will try to move them. But with Interpol and FBI monitoring their addresses, I think this will be nearly impossible task.
890  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 03:31:58 PM
34 brothers, the dude is getting drunk older :-)
Happy BD and Cheers, dude! You are a legend!
891  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2020, 12:37:50 PM
@JJG
I am totally gambling with my crypto investment. I’m way over invested, if it all goes to $0 I am still a partner in a business & can live comfortably on what that brings in though.

Bitcoin is my honey pot though, I could sell everything now & pull out a lot of fiat but I have bigger dreams, much bigger. It’s all worked out very well so far.

I trust in the process, end of 2021 = fireworks.

Same. Either it goes to Mars and I get rich, or it goes to $0 and my life stays the same. YOLO

An accountant friend tried telling me to take some profits. I know that's good advice. However, what am I going to do with non-life changing amounts of money? I can already afford to eat what I want, take vacations, whatever. So, I'll let it all ride.  Cool

Here goes my last merit. This is absolutely my situation. #todamars
892  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2020, 12:26:10 PM
I don’t know if anyone remembers this game/list.....

This first sad face on this list was 27-12-2017

Now two remaining able to win the prize

-20/02/2020 romneymoney
-18/12/2021 luckygenough56

The game was when we hit 24777$

Who are you guys betting on from this moment?


The first date is past, so romneymoney lost.

No, the date closest to the price ... see he still has a few months....
Ok, my bad, I don't remember the rules honestly. In this case romneymoney has around 8 months to win. I would bet, however, on luckygenough56.
893  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2020, 10:46:27 AM
I don’t know if anyone remembers this game/list.....

This first sad face on this list was 27-12-2017

Now two remaining able to win the prize

-20/02/2020 romneymoney
-18/12/2021 luckygenough56

The game was when we hit 24777$

Who are you guys betting on from this moment?


The first date is past, so romneymoney lost.
894  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2020, 09:06:49 AM
https://twitter.com/_connerbrown_/status/1267311826003525633

Quote
This past week miners have sold 673 more bitcoin than were generated. We are seeing capitulation from inefficient miners, but prices are holding steady.

What do you think happens when these miners are finally shaken out?




How does he obtain that data? I am skeptical.

I think this is the soure of the graph:
https://terminal.bytetree.com/bitcoin

Just click on the on-chain tab.

I am skeptical too on this indicator.
Once the coinbase is mined can sit there and the miner can sell very old coinbase, or on the contrary the coibae can be moved immediately to pool's participant.
Both this facts can dramatically change the result of the indicator.

I don't know: It would be intresting to figure out how much is the flow of money from miners (or rather pools) to exchanges. this is actual selling to pay for running expenses (hardware, electricity bils etc.).


You ask, and someone provide:

Quote
Significant outflows from the unknown miner before the dip. They're CAPITULATING.
https://cq.live/prochart/229?window=block




So here we have two information on one tweet:
  • It is possible to track flows from mining pools
  • The dump was not a whale playing the market, rather than an unknown miner selling (part of) his stash

I really don't believe that stats from a website that is not quite functional yet. What does it mean: Unknown Mining Pool 1 Outflows? What about the known pools? And besides, the chart is wrongly interpreted: it is not outflow from 1 miner wallet, it is the total withdrawals from the pool. It is clear that the miners would sell more with the higher price but why should one miner dump the price by 10%? The price above 10K is desparately needed even for the last generation asics owners. They are even more concerned about the price than us the hodlers, trust me.

895  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2020, 06:50:49 AM
Same guy dumping and pumping lol. How much loss would he make if he do that? Buy 5k coins, sell again at same price range.

That's what I'm trying to figure out, but I think he can win thanks to the short squeezes. He buys buys buys until the movement is self-sustaining because of margin calls and shorters capitulating, and starts selling during that last phase. Then sells back the rest.

So he buys coins at say 9500$ average, but sells them at 9800$ average. If it's 10000 coins, that's a 3 million dollars profit (less fees).

This is possible but not likely. He can buy in Bitstamp to raise the price and transfer quickly to Binance where the volume is really high and sell slowly at 10K without moving the price. The more likely scenario is this:
He buys, say 1000BTC, at Bitstamp while placing an even larger long position on Bitmex with some high leverage. On the next day he sells at Bitstamp while having a large short leverage position at Bitmex. Since Bitmex is unregulated he can manipulate the market until he's alive with no fear of being banned or sued. Unlike US derivative exchanges where CFTC investigates such manipulations and the criminals are put in jail. Moreover, the thing is that CFTC suspects the owners of Bitmex to do regularly these manipulations against their clients. But of course CFTC has no jurisdiction unless some USA citizens or institutions are involved. That's why it's been told many times here that without this cancer derivate exchange (and probably many other largely unregulated asian exchanges where KYC is a formality) Bitcoin price should have been much higher. The price should be above 100K by the end of 2021 but with such manipulations I'm not so sure it will be (much) above 20K by then. Again, until Bitmex cancer is cured, such 'crashes' like yesterday's or 12th March will appear from time to time. The cure is a strong bull market like in 2017 which may happen in 2021 but it may also be delayed to 2022 or even later. That's why it is a good thing to be mentally prepared to hold 3-4 years until the clouds are cleared. I am even determined to hold >10 years if needed to fulfil my selling plan. (And I believe by then I will not actually 'sell' for fiat but rather be able to buy real estate and everything directly with BTC.)
896  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2020, 03:27:53 PM
May be the same guy that pumped yesterday on Bitstamp to makes some profit on the unregulated Bitmex with fat long position, squeezing $125 mln shorts. It may be a different whale who squeezed $90 mln longs now, but who cares. The remaining traders are on a loss. They sold below 9.6K to buy above 10K and now to sell again at 9.5K. I really hope the way above 10K and beyond ATH to be cleared some day in the near future. Unitl then:



Whales playing with weak hands again. Those poor little mice caught in the daily dump traps are losing, losing, aaaand losing again. Cul loss after cut loss, they can't see the forest because of the tree in front of their eyes. Even if they rebuy with the next pump, they will definitely sell with a loss at the dump that follows. But as the founder of the HODL said once: guess who the whales won't trick? The hodlers, because they are already in when the pump starts.  Grin And the pump is coming soon and it will be vicious. One of the most glorious in the history of Bitcoin. To da moon!
897  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2020, 02:49:51 PM
ouch!
898  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2020, 05:51:11 AM
Fake dump. Next week->10K!

Got this amazing feeling that where going back to the 10k areas in not to long of a time period....

I do love this feeling...

Maximum NON-investment #dyor


The next few days are critical  Wink It will show whether we are building a floor of a bull ladder before the next climb above 10K, or the decline will continue until some solid support is found. These dead cat bounces were typical for the last 2 years. But the odds are now in favour of the bulls IMO. I mean both the halving and the big volume of bitcoins withdrawn from exchanges since March 12th are good premises for the price to increase.

I may not be MasterLuc, but this aged pretty well. Sorry for all those dumpsters that sold way below 9K. And of course, the poor mindrust. I hope he is not having a heart attack or something.   #stronghands #stronghats
899  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2020, 11:10:48 PM
Jesus Christ, 10K again! My hodlsleep will be sweet  Grin
900  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2020, 04:42:00 PM
The largest outflows have been from:

Bitfinex (~133,000 BTC) -66.6%
BitMEX (~105,000 BTC) -35.6%
Huobi (~97,000 BTC) -24.6%
In particular, Bitfinex has seen the steepest decline, losing 66.6% of its total BTC balance since Black Thursday.


https://insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-investors-exodus-from-major-exchanges-continues/
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