I'm not the one who thought of the idea. I didn't even know it was debatable until now.
What exactly do you find difficult about using a miner as a space heater?
There are a lot of things that make it difficult. Lack of energy circuit power, kids, lack of physical space, pets, wife, loud noise etc. Miners have lots of cables and need a big power circuit because you don't want your breaker to trip when you plug in your stove or washing machine or iron. And I would really like to see a bedroom heated by miners. I wonder how will the wife sleep with your new toys. Using miners as a space heater is only available for a few miners. For the majority of them this is simply not doable. There shouldn't be a need for a ton of power because you only need enough to heat your home(or supplement the heating). If you have a massive home that needs a massive amount of heating I would guess you already have plenty of power already built in to the house. The noise problem is entirely dependent on the hardware. Sure anything from Spondooliestech will not work but a BTCGarden miner or something equally quiet would have no problem going inside the house. Last winter I used my gpu rig (2 x AMD 270x) to heat my room and it worked quite well in my experience. I am not in disagreement that home mining is dead for the majority of people, I just think that there is still an opportunity for the few with cheap or free electricity. |
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If the asic manufacturers has decided to keep their snouts out of the mining trough and actually support the customers that financed them, then the difficulty would be considerably lower and miners might still be making money.
All that happened was a serious of on-shot deals based on pre-orders, which would have been fine if the manufacturers had put plans in place to keep their original customers supplied with a steady stream of products as the difficulty rose. Instead they sold in bulk for their own or 'proxy' mining operations and the ones that paid the highest ( ie not discounted) pricing for their equipment got shafted.
Please don't lump all ASIC manufacturers together with the scam companies. As it has already been said but you seem to have ignored, several companies did a good job of not ripping off their customers and even giving them a chance to turn a profit. Bitmain was a shining example. No preorders, no overpriced hardware, no BS, and just about everyone who ordered from them was able to turn a profit. (although Bitmain has degraded a bit recently) don't be too hard on the OP. sounds like difficulty w/power cost is making him think about powering off his miners. home mining is getting to the point of ridonkulousness
It should be clarified that home mining is only no longer viable for people with uncompetitive electricity rates. Mining may still be viable if you pay less than $0.08/kwh or have free electricity(which many do). I think people are being hard on the OP because of his hilarious plan to destroy bitcoin because he specifically can no longer profit from mining. It's the sort of response you'd expect to hear from an elementary schooler that didn't get his way so he has to ruin the fun for everyone. |
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Have you felt like being betrayed by the ASIC manufacturers lately? You are not alone. We all feel the same way. We, as home miners, popularized bitcoins through our supports and utilization. It was written in stones that ASIC manufacturers produce the machine and we as home miners use them to mine. It used to be a sin for the manufacturer to mine and compete with us.
Now the unwritten laws are broken. ASIC manufacturers are plainly setting up data centers to mine. They are directly competing with us, the backbone of ASIC supporters. They are betraying us. I hope this will lead to the collapse of btc and the eventual death of the ASIC manufacturers.
I hope we as home miners will just dump bitcoins and let it collapse.
Please don't try to speak for everyone, especially when the majority probably disagree completely. This thread is the equivalent of saying "I can no longer pan for gold in the creek behind my house so let's crash the gold economy!" Bitcoin mining is moving towards more efficient, industrial scale operations. Get over it. If you didn't see that coming you are a fool. I'd suggest you dump all your btc and exit cryptocurrencies completely because it's clearly not for you if you are calling for the death of a 5 billion dollar revolutionary currency just because you specifically can no longer make money by plugging a machine in to your wall outlet. |
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This sounds like the same trolling we had back in the spring when our prices were just "too good". We will continue doing what we do. PB Mining isn't going anywhere. Watch.
Well said. There will always be people who are not satisfied no matter what proof you have. The same occurs with all the other companies that offer cloud mining as well.That's actually not true. Nobody has ever accused Hashnest, Kncminer, or Cointerra of running a ponzi scheme. PBmining has put as much effort as possible to make their operation look like a ponzi scheme... You really can't be surprised by the accusations/skepticism. |
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jimmothy, do you mine on your own or do you have a contract with a cloud mining firm (or both)? Just trying to get a grip on your stand here with this whole situation.
I've been mining for close to 2 years now but had to sell the last of my hardware because I pay $0.15/kwh. I don't own any cloudmining contracts but I would probably buy one if the price is right and there are not a million red flags. I've been following cloudmining since its birth and seen too many ponzi's to give people the benefit of the doubt. |
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I take Puppet's spreadsheet to be a simple demonstration tool, I don't think his intention is to imply it's an accurate model. I would say his assumptions are much more sound than your main premise though. If even with free electricity a miner cannot recover their capital cost, NO ONE WILL BUY MINING EQUIPMENT. Sorry for the caps, but this keeps on coming up and it's a fundamental logic flaw. With free electricity your costs of running equipment are negligible. To say that the capital costs will never be recovered assumes that income approaches 0 as the network hashrate approaches infinity.
Answer one simple question, with the assumption that continued increases in difficulty will mean that even people with free electricity can't recovery their capital costs in equipment, who do you think will be buying the ~250PH/s worth of mining hardware necessary to even double the current hashrate?
People who can get the mining equipment a lot cheaper than it is normally priced for the "consumer". That is, people placing gigantic bulk orders, people with exclusive partnerships with manufacturers, and the manufacturers themselves. Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.
So can some people profit from mining or not? |
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Moore's law states that transistor density doubles every 18 months. Something which no longer is true, but even it where, for bitcoin transistor density is almost irrelevant at this point; so what if you can cram twice as many cores in a chip, if it consume twice as much power you havent really gained much. You reduced the silicon cost per GH, but thats arguably one of the least important metrics right now. Moore's law says nothing about compute efficiency, and I think its fair to say the industry is heading in to a brick wall in that regard too.
Thats not to say I dont expect improvements over where we are now, there is probably still a lot to be had from improving power delivery and riding down the schmoo plot from high voltage/highest performance per mm˛ to low voltage/highest power efficiency, but thats pretty much going to be a one time deal.
Source for Moore's law no longer being true? It's true Moore's law says nothing about efficiency but Koomey's law says it should double even quicker. |
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If they have all this money, and are such a great company, why do they need PREORDER money?
I bought a tesla X and he did not need me to pay for it. I will pay for it when (and if) he delivers it.
It's really quite obvious if you've ever preordered hardware. They just want more money. They know that hardware be selling from stock for ~$0.2/gh by time they are finally shipping so they would rather have people pay current rates instead. |
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That is completely normal and has already been pointed out before.  As you can see they are always small amounts. Can you prove some payments originate from mining? Seems you either try your hardest to hide the mining or you're not mining. I know you've got a much better coin mixer since April but what's the point when you openly admit paying out directly from customer payments? Don't you realize that with such a shady business model you're limiting your customer base to naive investonomers and gamblers? I have a (serious) question for you. If a company thought that mining was a losing proposition and essentially wanted the short the market, they could sell mining power and provide the equivalent returns without actually investing in hardware. If they sell X GH/s for 5 years for a certain price, and return the equivalent 100% PPS for those X GH/s over that time, is it a problem if they never actually place X GH/s on the network? You don't have the right to think mining is a losing proposition and sell mining bonds that will fail if your predictions are wrong. Ah, I think you're misunderstanding what I'm asking. You're assuming that the mining company will just cut and run, and you're obviously correct in that's what has historically happened and what will likely continue to happen here. I'm asking more of a conceptual question. Similarly to borrowing and shorting a stock where if you are wrong you take a loss, I'm asking about a similar thing in the mining space. If the "mining company" sells a futures contract that they will provide dividends based on X GH/s for Y years in exchange for Z BTC, is there really any difference between that and a mining bond that actually buys the hardware if they do stick to the terms of the contract? As long as the intent is communicated, I honestly don't see a whole lot of difference. You're still relying on the integrity of the party you're dealing with. It's just risk in the opposite direction; if mining goes really well a mining company might stick around and pay out, but if it goes poorly they'll just cut and run. Here, if mining goes poorly the company makes a profit but if it goes well they lose money and possibly cut and run. Of course, my proposed company is an ideal that is making an educated gamble and has the resources to absorb the loss if they're wrong. I'm not saying that's the case with what is going on here. Now I get what you're asking. I see absolutely nothing wrong with derivatives/futures/gambling games like you described as long as they are completely transparent and clear about their rules/operation. BDD is a perfect example where they will completely stop payments once the reserve runs dry and everyone will be fine with it because that's just how the game works and the shares are priced with that in mind. I have a problem with a ponzi pretending to mine and then unexpectedly disappearing as soon as the reserve fund runs low. For all we know pbmining could only have a week or two worth of payments left in the reserve fund and new customers would never know about it. (until 2 weeks later when their "investment" stops paying) Personally I'm not a fan of financial instruments(like your ideal company) that have potential for massive losses and require trust that the loser will pay out, but as long as the rules/risks are clear I have no problem with it. |
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I think you're missing the point of the graph. It's purpose is to illustrate, given certain parameters, what the final steady state network hashrate could end up being. Barring large changes in price or available technology, eventually the network will get to the point that even a large operation in a location with extremely cheap electricity will not be able to break even in X days even without difficulty changing.
The assumption is fundamentally invalid because there will always be changes in "available technology". Even once bitcoin mining ASICs reach the cutting edge in terms of modern process size, algorithm optimization, computational efficiency, etc, major companies in larger markets will continue to push the bounds of technology forward and ASIC manufacturers will benefit from these new technologies, releasing better and better products. The cost of a given amount of computing power is cut in half on about a yearly basis. So long as advanced human civilization exists, technology will continue to progress and there will never be a "steady state". And, so long as bitcoin remains valuable enough to warrant anyone to bother mining it with custom equipment, any miner bought at a given point in time will provide less hash rate than a miner bought a year later for the same amount of money. And that makes the graph not applicable in any real situation. Remember where the discussion originated. I made the claim that even today, many miners fail to ever break even or just barely break even. The graph was posted as a rebuttal to that, to show that in fact capital expenditures are easy to recover and that we are far from the point where that would no longer be the case. But it only shows that in a constant difficulty environment. In a rising difficulty environment, say 10% per period, my statement is closer to the truth, as can be quickly checked with any of the conventional online mining profit calculators. And, said rising difficulty environment is the real world in which miners are trying to make back their investment and profit. I think there's still room to go in terms of power efficiency, but I don't know how much higher it will go. A lot of it is predicated on price. I honestly don't think there is much left to be done algorithmically to improve efficiency; the simplicity of the SHA256 means it's pretty easy to optimize. There's probably still a good bit of work to do on layout, but even that will taper out as people get designs optimized. Looking at what is currently the best implementation (Bitfury), with perfect scaling he might get ~0.2J/GH on his existing 55nm design shrunk to 28nm. I personally think the limit of 28nm will be closer to 0.2J/GH than 0.1J/GH. You're being quite optimistic on the cost of computing power halving every year, IMO. The biggest variable in all of this is price though. It was easy to tape out new 28nm designs and order a bunch of wafer starts when you could charge $5k for a box with <$1k in parts other than the ASIC itself. If you do get someone down to 0.2J/GH, you're already 3x better that anything else on the market at 28nm. Going from there, you're going to be looking at marginal improvements with each new spin. With margins very tight, you need to really look at what kind of income you'll generate in order to justify the cost of the new design. I take Puppet's spreadsheet to be a simple demonstration tool, I don't think his intention is to imply it's an accurate model. I would say his assumptions are much more sound than your main premise though. If even with free electricity a miner cannot recover their capital cost, NO ONE WILL BUY MINING EQUIPMENT. Sorry for the caps, but this keeps on coming up and it's a fundamental logic flaw. With free electricity your costs of running equipment are negligible. To say that the capital costs will never be recovered assumes that income approaches 0 as the network hashrate approaches infinity. Answer one simple question, with the assumption that continued increases in difficulty will mean that even people with free electricity can't recovery their capital costs in equipment, who do you think will be buying the ~250PH/s worth of mining hardware necessary to even double the current hashrate? Puppets tool is not meant to predict when/howfast the difficulty will increase. It's only meant to demonstrate how the parameters affect the difficulty and give you a rough idea of what you would expect if we reached equilibrium and technology stopped advancing. Of course technology will still advance but it won't be at the current 10%/2 weeks rate. I'd guess ~1%/diff increases if it follows Moore's law. If even with free electricity a miner cannot recover their capital cost, NO ONE WILL BUY MINING EQUIPMENT. Exactly this. Large scale mining operations do not have access to free electricity and need to be earning massive profits if they want to continue spending millions on NRE. I don't understand how people can say that nobody can make a profit mining because there is some entity out there that will continue adding hashing power far beyond the point everyone is mining at a loss. |
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That is completely normal and has already been pointed out before. As you can see they are always small amounts. Can you prove some payments originate from mining? Seems you either try your hardest to hide the mining or you're not mining. I know you've got a much better coin mixer since April but what's the point when you openly admit paying out directly from customer payments? Don't you realize that with such a shady business model you're limiting your customer base to naive investonomers and gamblers? I have a (serious) question for you. If a company thought that mining was a losing proposition and essentially wanted the short the market, they could sell mining power and provide the equivalent returns without actually investing in hardware. If they sell X GH/s for 5 years for a certain price, and return the equivalent 100% PPS for those X GH/s over that time, is it a problem if they never actually place X GH/s on the network? You don't have the right to think mining is a losing proposition and sell mining bonds that will fail if your predictions are wrong. It's a problem in the same way any ponzi is a problem which is that there is no source of revenue (other than new investments) and thus no possibility of real profit. (ponzi operators/early adopters surely have the chance to profit from other users payments) For example say a mining operation of 1PH costs 1000btc. With a real mining operation there is a chance that that 1PH earns 1500btc (500 btc profit) but with a ponzi there is no chance they payout more than the original 1000btc. (Depending on the ponzi operators cut it could be much less than) Cloudmining ponzi schemes are just like the BDD ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=430137.0) except for the fact that the BDD makes it very clear what happens when the reserve fund runs dry. (The game ends/payments stop/everyone goes home happy) Sure a ponzi scheme can try to accurately predict exactly how much btc each GH will mine over the next 5 years but if they are wrong then everyone will end up scammed. If they are right then everyone will end up with a loss, but not scammed at least. It's a loss/bigger loss situation for customers but a win/win for the ponzi operators. |
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Don't forget that everyone in the northern hemisphere who pays <$0.08/kwh can effectively lower their rate by ~0.03/kwh by using the miners for space heating. (natural gas is $0.03-0.04/kwh most places)
You and this nonsense again. Have you mined with more than 5 devices in your home? I would really like to see you using miners as space heating for a whole winter. It's easier said than done, but since you are not a miner you don't know this. I'm not the one who thought of the idea. I didn't even know it was debatable until now. What exactly do you find difficult about using a miner as a space heater? And even if someone could use miners as space heaters. They can do this only one winter, because the next winter the equipment will be obsolete Is there a reason it needs to be used for more than one winter? and since the profits are so small the miner will not have money to get new equipment so next winter he will freeze.
So your magic crystal ball is telling you that the AM Prisma will make small profits yet you are still trying to sell hardware twice as expensive? |
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Well Jimmy in Chelan County they still have customers who use rotary phones, so no wonders they do not have their local tax schedule online, but part of my research was to call the fine lady's @ the county building. 6% tax on energy for the Local City/County and 3.873% for WA State. Likewise they DO NOT provide 3-phase power to residential accts. Also the fine county has at least 20 residences available, although a JOB would require a bit of a commute.
I'm not sure how a 10% tax can increase the cost from ~$0.04 to 0.08/kwh but I'll take your word for it. TO BE SURE: if you are only using 120V single phase power YOU WILL NEED A JOB.
I really wouldn't suggest mining unless you already have a job and access to power. I'd guess you would need at least 100TH/s now to survive on mining alone and that's being optimistic. Anyway WA is a great location, but regardless of jimmy's pipe dream power will cost you roughly 0.08/KWh(tax, title, tags, etc) unless you can use enough to qualify as an industrial entity, like AM.
Is that including the ~$0.03/kwh savings from using the miners as heaters during winter? I would think you would be thankful jimmy because my awkward setup includes AM's awkward ULTRA-HOT mining Tubes, for now anyway more selling off each day, Thank GOD!!!
I say it's awkwardly sized because it's too small to qualify for large scale industrial rates and it's too large to use for space heating. Do you even OWN a miner Jimmy?
Unfortunately no. I started mining more than a year ago but had to sell the last of my miners recently because my electricity rate is not competitive. ($0.15/kwh) |
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Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.
You couldnt be more wrong. Here is a chart for you:  It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh) What % difficulty increase per period are you assuming in your calculations? It's not a difficulty prediction tool, it's an endgame estimation tool. If we know the $/gh, w/gh, and $/kwh we can estimate how much hashrate it would take before nobody could afford to continue adding hashing power. (but not when or at what rate) We don't know the variable so it's only a guess but his point is clear that J/GH does make a huge difference. |
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guys, am I imagining or is ASICMINER is selling at IPO?  ?? I'm thinking an IPO shareholder wants out. Seems like almost all of the dumping is from individual people. |
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... home miners with electricity rates below $0.05/kwh will easily turn a profit. (unless ultra cheap ~0.1w/gh hardware comes out within the next few months)
Home mining is not dead, it's only dead for people with uncompetitive electricity rates.
PLEASE!!! Tell me where on Earth you can get residential service for a nickel a KWh? I have my miners packed.. The fees on my electric bill are 0.03/KWh on top of the 0.08/KWh for the juice. Have you tried looking in Washington? Um Yes Yes I have, building a 25KW farm there as I write AND AGAIN I say WHERE?? http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_6_aMaybe he meant INDUSTRIAL energy price, which takes a MASSIVE LOAD to get pricing there, with monthly minimums that would fry a cat. Reading the AM report on trying to save their ship would NOT include RESIDENTIAL rates. Jimmothy is a shill no doubt and a LIAR to boot. Dude why do you open your mouth so much when it is obvious you do not have 1 clue about mining, why not just go shill the Prism or Tube, the adults are trying to speak... Ah nice 3 counties, Thanks now after I do the 3-4 hours of reading to collect ALL the facts and regs.. looks like 2 of them actually will deliver for under 0.05/KWh.. oh wait but then there are taxes, school levees, etc.. oh damn 0.08/KWH ugh.. why do you even respond? Thanks for doing hours of research but you forget to include any links/references to these mystical taxes you worked so hard to find. Don't forget that everyone in the northern hemisphere who pays <$0.08/kwh can effectively lower their rate by ~0.03/kwh by using the miners for space heating. (natural gas is $0.03-0.04/kwh most places) Of course recycling heat will be of no use to your awkward scale mining operation but some people can take advantage of it. I stand CORRECTED.. NOT!! and of course good luck finding a house there wired with 3 phase.. or grocery stores and forget about JOBS or a local ECONOMY.
That's really not my job. You asked where people pay less than $0.05/kwh not where you can have a 3 phase 220V pre-installed in an upscale neighborhood. Here's a few more good non-Washington rates I found (disclaimer: I didn't do an extensive forensic analysis so there may be exorbitant fees I've missed) http://www.rousespointny.com/the-village/electric-department.htmlhttp://www.villageofarcade.org/departments/public-works/electric-department.htmlhttp://www.cityofplattsburgh-ny.gov/Departments/MunicipalLightinghttp://www.clatskaniepud.com/rate-schedules/ |
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... home miners with electricity rates below $0.05/kwh will easily turn a profit. (unless ultra cheap ~0.1w/gh hardware comes out within the next few months)
Home mining is not dead, it's only dead for people with uncompetitive electricity rates.
PLEASE!!! Tell me where on Earth you can get residential service for a nickel a KWh? I have my miners packed.. The fees on my electric bill are 0.03/KWh on top of the 0.08/KWh for the juice. Have you tried looking in Washington? Um Yes Yes I have, building a 25KW farm there as I write AND AGAIN I say WHERE?? http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_6_aMaybe he meant INDUSTRIAL energy price, which takes a MASSIVE LOAD to get pricing there, with monthly minimums that would fry a cat. Reading the AM report on trying to save their ship would NOT include RESIDENTIAL rates. Jimmothy is a shill no doubt and a LIAR to boot. Dude why do you open your mouth so much when it is obvious you do not have 1 clue about mining, why not just go shill the Prism or Tube, the adults are trying to speak... So you expect all miners to be in one tiny county? Fcking retard, we all know you care so much about your shares, but at least make better BS to support your agenda. Can you not count? Clearly I listed 3 separate counties making up a large part of Washington. Washington is not the only place in the world with cheap electricity. You can find ~$0.05/kwh electricity all over if you look hard enough and using miners as space heaters can effectively reduce the electricity rate for most people. But clearly you don't actually care about mining, you just have some strange addiction to calling people retards. I'm not here to promote AM hardware, I'm here to debate over speculation like everyone else. I hold so few AM shares that even if I was responsible for the sale of 1000 AM Prismas I doubt I would earn an entire dollar. |
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... home miners with electricity rates below $0.05/kwh will easily turn a profit. (unless ultra cheap ~0.1w/gh hardware comes out within the next few months)
Home mining is not dead, it's only dead for people with uncompetitive electricity rates.
PLEASE!!! Tell me where on Earth you can get residential service for a nickel a KWh? I have my miners packed.. The fees on my electric bill are 0.03/KWh on top of the 0.08/KWh for the juice. Have you tried looking in Washington? Um Yes Yes I have, building a 25KW farm there as I write AND AGAIN I say WHERE?? http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_6_aMaybe he meant INDUSTRIAL energy price, which takes a MASSIVE LOAD to get pricing there, with monthly minimums that would fry a cat. Reading the AM report on trying to save their ship would NOT include RESIDENTIAL rates. Jimmothy is a shill no doubt and a LIAR to boot. Dude why do you open your mouth so much when it is obvious you do not have 1 clue about mining, why not just go shill the Prism or Tube, the adults are trying to speak... |
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Let me guess, you noobs think " why buy btc when you can mine for free ? ". Just spend $1.5k on a computer, and get btc forever right?
Awesome, keep buying.
After calculation. If the output is bigger than input, Why not? I would love to see your "calculation" LOL Here is one variable you noobs never get : manufacturers can/will/do outmine you. But nope, you still use your dumb "percentile" anyway. dude you could use a time out. no one on this thread is a newbie. we have all been a round a while . We have found our little spots to do some mining and we do it. I do roi in fiat and in btc . But I can not do this easily or at a big scale. To me noobs are ppl who see estimations as some concrete calculations (if the output is higher, then why not). Just like you, who keep saying " 0 -9%" over and over again, while pulling that number straight out of your ass. Each jump it was close to 15%. But you continue anyway. Problem is greed blinds ppl so that they only fantasize their ROI. The fact that they use bitcoin price to justify it prove this (if bitcoin price jumps, i will get ROI and then some) Is that not exactly what you're doing by preaching your estimations that all miners are unprofitable as a fact? Seems like the only thing you ever post is about how unprofitable mining is or about how someone is much less intelligent than yourself. Here's a fun fact: For over 9 months people have been repeating the same worn out mantra that mining will be unprofitable yet anyone who started mining more than 3 months ago was able to turn a profit. (provided they bought the best priced hardware at the time) I think most of the people saying mining will not be profitable are naively putting 15% average increases into a calculator and basing their conclusion entirely on that. People seem to have the idea that large scale mining operations are completely immune to the dropping btc exchange rate and increasing difficulty. Just like everyone else, their profit margins will suffer meaning less money to reinvest in hardware. Whether you are aware of it or not, the difficulty is in fact slowing down and eventually the market will reach equilibrium (1-3% avg increases) at which point home miners with electricity rates below $0.05/kwh will easily turn a profit. (unless ultra cheap ~0.1w/gh hardware comes out within the next few months)  Home mining is not dead, it's only dead for people with uncompetitive electricity rates. |
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