Let me try another:

pbmining in upcoming announcement: "Sorry guys, our datacenter burned down, we only saved one USB block erupter. We will continue to pay out the mining revenue pro rata from that single block erupter. So sorry".

Anya: "See, I told you they were real. This is the proof: If there was no datacenter, it couldnt have burned down!".

Case in point:
https://www.weexchange.co/

According to our math wizard, it wasnt a scam. Website is still there!

IF thats the case, then we will never agree on terms for a bet, because charging arbitrarily high fees out of the blue is the obvious way for a ponzi to reduce or eliminate its liabilities while keeping the pretense of being legit. Apparently you wouldnt mind if pb tomorrow starts charging $0.15/GH per month, you go as far as calling it proof of legitimacy even though the result of that is that he no longer has to pay anyone a satoshi (looked that up yet?)


You're the one who lacks imagination. Probably because you've not seen as many ponzi's collapse as I and most other posters here have. Ive witnessed at least 12 go under. Very few, if any,  of them just vanished all of a sudden without cover story or trying to win time.


ROFL. Please share your calculations, we're all dying to see that.

Damn this is proving an exciting bet.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,253,144,000 (-0.12%)

Even if I lose, its money well spent just for entertainment purpose

FWIW, I do expect to lose. I think bitcoinwisdom is extrapolating the recent spike in to a trend, and Im not convinced there is such trend, might as well be random noise. If I check blockexplorer, which just averages without assuming a trend, its predicting  39.8B. So my 100PH machine better start delivering some blocks to make up for that shortfall :p.

By the time gen 4 USB sticks could reasonably be expected to ship, Id WAG difficulty to be above 80B.

2.5W/0.3J/GH= ~8GH wich would yield 0.0000501 BTC per day.

Last summer,  a USB block erupter mined  about two orders of magnitude more.

God you guys are gullible. You really think a fresh ponzi that offers zero proof of anything and depends solely on the naivety /  blind faith of its investors, is likely to openly steal $1 worth of bitcoins and thereby ruining its only asset: misplaced trust? He's here to steal the big bucks, not the single digit crumbs.

Want me to point out the obvious regarding your ref link signature too, or you think you can manage by yourself ? 

I call it stupid, its not like its difficult to automate a normal purchase procedure and generate addresses on the fly. It just shows the operator doesnt have a clue.

And here is another reason its potentially stupid (for a ponzi), you can do all sorts of analysis. Just the fact that funds in the sales address accumulate each week by itself says all you need to know: they are not being converted to fiat, or used to purchase hardware or cover running costs. The account gets emptied and run through a mixer only when divs are due. How much more transparent could he make it?

BTW, even though the funds are being thoroughly mixed, its still clear they do not originate from any recent mining activity and payout and sales addresses are clearly linked



https://blockchain.info/taint/1PiggyKTPYdtjPaHPTkJUnR314vz2v1wfs

I honestly cant see how you could make a ponzi operation more obvious. Perhaps calling it "Ponzi Bullshit mining" ?

You assume a fiat payment, which very few cloudmining companies even accept, and a desire to convert fiat to btc.
But if you buy a cloudmining contract with BTC, how is the above statement different from when buying hardware with BTC?


It probably/usually is. But then the same could be said for asic hardware. Very few people ever achieved a BTC denominated profit.

Wow. Nice way to destroy your own trustworthiness. Essentially you are saying if you had not been close to ROI, you would be afraid to call a scam if you thought it was scam. That makes you complicit in my book.


How about next time asking these questions before investing and especially before promoting it? Remind me never to use you as escrow.

Translation: "we have no miners, we have no mining revenue. We expect this ponzi to collapse before February. It will have been worth it for us."

Why would you want to mix useful stuff with the ponzi's? Id hate running a legitimate hosting service and see my thread drown in a sea of ponzi pushing. Of course, the same applies to legitimate mining companies, but thats unavoidable because you cant identify them positively.

I dont base myself on price to determine if they are legit. I list the criteria in the post I linked:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=860400.0

Feel free to apply them yourself and consider what the chances are pb or cloudminr are legitimate. IF you think there is a real chance, lets make a bet.

As for the bet; it stands for anyone willing to take it as I wrote it. I dont have the patience to teach someone english, logic and bitcoin history for 0.5 BTC, so Anyayakubu let me know once you figured it all out.

I never realized he lets everyone pay to the same address. Wow, what idiocy.  

I cant explain whats gong on at that address, I was actually basing myself on the stats page, adding up all the hashrate listed there. I did make a mistake though. Between the 24th and today there is a difference of 147TH, good for 205 BTC if you assume no one got referrals. Thats ~40BTC per day vs 54 BTC in obligations. Admittedly, just a very short snapshot and I could imagine the day after divs be a better day than average due to reinvestments. Ill know more in a week or so.

Here is how I propose to formulate the bet:
This bet will resolve to "yes" if before November 25 2015, most or all pbmining.com customers stop receiving their weekly payments, or receive payments that are significantly below that which corresponds to the theoretical yield of their purchased hashrate vs bitcoin difficulty at that time .

Simple, completely in line with the claims I made and no obvious loopholes. Ill leave it up to the escrow to determine what "significant" constitutes, as it seems unlikely to be a number that could cause confusion.

Of course, none of these mining scams actually admit to being a ponzi, so who is going to decide to move their threads to that section?

Sigh.You havent been around very long have you? Sounds like you dont even know what a satoshi is.

As for the formulation of the bet, this is what I wrote:"How much are you willing to bet on pb still honoring its contracts 12 months from now?". Thats not meant as precise terms to a bet, and now is the time to clarify the statement. You dont get to dictate the terms to me or tell me what I meant, we have to agree on the terms.

If PBmining begins paying out substantially less (*) than the theoretical mining revenue of the owned hashrate, to me its clear that violates the "contract".  How much constitutes "substantially", we can specify, but lets say 50%. Why do I want this  clarified? Because there are many ways pbmining can dissolve this ponzi. He can just turn the website off and run, but I can think of half a dozen other ways that essentially amount to the same, but do not necessarily fall under your terms.

For instance, if PBmining does what hashking did, Im not going to concede the bet.  If you never heard of hashking, google it, it was yet another ponzi (which I warned against), that collapsed and then began paying peanuts as reimbursements for a few months before vanishing completely. Or Pbmining could just unilaterally change the terms and conditions, like introducing fees, that consume the majority  of the mining revenue, he can decide to start paying in some new scamcoin like GAW is planning. etc, etc.

I want to bet with you that pbmining is a scam that will cost late investors most of their investment, I do not want to bet on what excuse the operator will come up with or how he may try to legitimize his theft.

Why are you in a rush to get me to confirm this?  You've got 11 months before you should begin worrying (/hoping). Its not gonna take me that long to organize escrow. I OTOH, cant be too sure you'll be around come Monday.

Anyway, as escrow I propose Tomatocage or Bitbob:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276897.0

I have yet to ask either if they can do 3 way signature, but Im assuming at least one of them can. Let me know if you can live with those choices.

As for the phrasing of the bet; lets call it pbmining.com and not "pb". I also want to stipulate that I win the bet if payouts substantially diverge from theoretical mining yields. So for instance if pbmining comes up with some new fee or whatever, to reduce payouts to a few satoshi, or declares being hacked/fire/whatever and begins paying out just a fraction of what would be expected based on difficulty, I still win.

No offense, but first of all, your 'girl scouts honor' honor doesnt mean anything to me and your reputation even less.  We will do this bet, but we will multisig/escrow it.

Secondly, my offer to reduce the time span of this bet to 6 months is obviously in your favor compared to the original 12 month. If this where to collapse only after 7 months you would win using my new terms, yet lose on the original terms. Of course if you insist, 12 month is fine by me too. Ill make it 10 years if you want.

As for being out of my mind; I did the math. Past week sales have been ~85 BTC (assuming the stats are correct). HIs payout ought to be ~380 BTC using the same assumption. So if you assume like me this is a ponzi, it doesnt take a math genius to figure out its not been a good week.