Last week Bitcoin surprised us in a bad way. Next week for a change I hope the surprise will be good for the hodlers. What I see now is that the support down to $3000 in the shitty Coinbase has increased to over 12 000BTC.  Of course, the main threat remains that people may continue to cash out next weeks especially if they are on unpaid leave. But, there is a very good news regarding that: in EU a sum of 37 bil euro will be distributed to the member countries (sorry UK ) to pay compensations  equal to 70% of the salary of each worker, who works for a private company that can't afford to pay the full salary during the lockdown. The news is from the last hours, and my country for example will receive 1.3 bil euro for that purpose. So I hope the panic will fade away and people will take advantage of this really low price now.

Edit. As I am writing a lil pump is underway. The pump started from $5170 and now we are at $56405800. Jeez, who would have thought in June 2019, when we reached 13 800 that only 2 months before the halving the price will be this and we will be happy about it... Phew, unbelievable!  

According to https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b
in the last 2 days nearly 1 mil bitcoins were traded (mainly sold) at the main exchanges excluding Binance. On Binance the volume was 400K each day, so we can safely assume more than 2 mil. bitcoins were traded. This is a huge amount and the question is how the market will adjust to this enormous inflow of bitcoins. I don't have a subscription to glassnode to see how many new bitcoins were deposited into the exchanges, normally it is between 15K and 40K, with a daily peak 444K in Dec 2018. After a month the chart will be accesible for non paid users, if anyone has a subscription can check and share what was the peak this time.

On one hand it seems logical to take more time to return above 10K and hold it. On the other hand, these bitcoins are now into a very strong and patient investors. These people are not like the new generation of theoretical traders who think it is easy to make profits. Emotions like greed and fear play a main role, and untrained will crack under the pressure. Experienced investors put their bids low and waited for a year in this case to get them filled. So hardly they will be chasing 10-20% or even 100% profits. Now, when the price starts to recover, the burnt traders and the whole world will see that even in utmost panic Bitcoin didn't go to 0 and no matter the fall it recovers really fast. This lesson will make the weak hands stronger, if they have the guts to enter the game again. So IMO not only a new bull run starts right now, but a whole new bull cycle lasting for years. May be this was the real end of the bear market. How far we will go is a question that honestly I can't answer. All charts and short term predictions were shattered. The good thing is that Bitcoin is not dead and doesn't care about these predictions.

From $3850 to $6000 is 55% increase for several hours. This also is histroric! 

I've spent half of my day reading carefully the 20 page lag that formed during the night. I slept like a baby and laughed when I saw that $3850 bottom. Jesus, this fall was epic.   But the recovery is beyond epic. Anyway!

Half of the posts were dedicated to mindrust decision to sell. I am really sorry that happened, buddy! It happens to everyone. You have to accept it and forgive your own weakness. You let the emotions take over the sound mind. In moments like this I tell myself that selling at some point means I believe Bitcoin will not return at this level for the next 5 years. So, ffs how on Earth Bitcoin won't recover to 4K, even if it drops below it?

I mean, you have to wait, patience is needed. And this applies for any kind of investment. Do you think that those who trade with real estates get rich quickly? I follow closely many ads and I can say that 99% of them are not sold for less than 3 years after they are posted. You have to wait and be patient.

If you have bitcoins, you should appreciate them more than fiat and other possesions. Why? Because you will live with the hope that some day you will achieve everything you've dreamt about - a car, a house, etc., things that you would never afford with your salary. What else can give you such a hope - lottery, shitcoins? nah

I will share some of my experiences with the hope to encourage you. In the Summer of 2017 I had 13 bitcoins from mining and trading. I also had 23K euro savings into the bank. Just before my holiday, I decided that this profit  is enogh for me and sold everything at $2700. I was happy for 1 day. On the next the price shot up 20%. I comforted myself that this is temporary, but the next week the price went above the ATH, raising in 2 weeks to $4 800. I felt more and more depressed. I was in a beach resort, lamenting the missed 25 000 euro profit. Then I realized that subconsciously I've made the mistake to set a too low profit target. Because the salary was too low - around 600 euro per month, I used to think that 20K is a huge profit. But looking at the hotel and nearby villas, I knew what I really wanted to get - a villa with a pool and not live anymore into an appartment with no view.

I started to think deeply what I should do. Then I decided firmly to get back into Bitcoin, buy with all my savings and hold until I get the money for the house plus the money needed to support the new way of life. I bought a ledger nano S, memorized the key words and used all my savings to buy again 13 bitcoins at prices around $4700, which was much higher than my exit price $2700. One month later the price fell to $3000 and I was a little upset that I didn't wait, but I didn't even think of selling or abandoning my goal. It helped that in early 2017 I forfeited 2 times profits around $2000 because of the crashes, which were my first baptism by fire. As a noob I didn't believe that bitcoin will return to $1000 after a 40% drop. I've waited 2 months after the drop and decided it won't go back there and sold on even. Later, I panic sold but on profit before the supposed fork and rebought with a loss of 0.5BTC after it was cancelled, and then the same story when we reached 14K. These were my last emotional breaches. Yes, I was a bit nerveous when we fell to $3100 in 2018 but my mind was strong and I continued to buy and even sold the last land to get 2 more coins. Now I am happy to have 17BTC and will continue to DCA untill I start to sell according to my plan.

My point is that it doesn't matter how and when you enter. You can profit only if you are strong and stick to your guns! Never, never believe any trader, chart expert, etc. Remember, anything can happen, have a plan and stick to it! Go against your emotions and conquer them with your mind!

Hey guys, cheer up! This storm in a cup of tea will pass out. (I am referring to Coinbase, where thousands of small fish were panic selling like hell all day.) Although I shot my bullets at $9K and $7.8K, I am not frustrated. On the contrary, I am not even bothering to transfer any of my $23K reserve, which is the very last that I can afford. This is kept only if the price falls way below my main entry point. I expect, however, the price to recover in the next 2 weeks, similarly to the 3-4 Feb 2018 roller coaster 11k-6k-11k.

Since we all love to make predictions, I will make some bizzare prediction for the Summer of 2020. In early 2019 when the price fell to 3K, I was giving <10% chance for the price to recover at $6.4 by the Summer. Above that I wasn't even considering the chances. For example, the Deribit exchange probability chart looks exactly what I was thinking:



And still Bitcoin exploded 4.5x from the bottom. Now, I would give <0.1% chance to repeat that run starting with today's Bitstamp bottom $5714. This would lead to a local top at $25 713 sometime in the Summer. And to make the chances smaller, let's asume a 5x bull run, i.e. $28 750. After that, another 2-6 month correction between 35% and 45%. I know, this is strong hopium.   I would give >50% chances for the price to be around 10K this Summer. There are obviously strong resistances above 10K and of course the ATH 20K. I am just saying that Bitcoin did this several times in 2017 and 2019. In the Spring of 2017 a run from $700 to $2800 and in the Fall of 2017 a run from $1800 (local bottom in the Summer) to $20K. I am just saying that for some reason king Bitcoin turns such odds into reality way too often. So, we shouldn't consider it as impossible. Even 10x in 6 months...

Of course, we should prepare mentally for a long wait in case this corona shit is getting worse. This is just another time extension to buy moar cheap coins. And with such strong shakeouts of the weak hands, it is always better that the coins land into more responsible and strong hands.

An open letter to weak hands.
Dear scaredy hands!
Clearly, you don't mind losing 10% of your wealth each day and buying TP. So I have the following gentle proposition.
If you didn't sell all your bitcoins until today (60 days before halving, which is priced in as we all know), consider this: the Earth population in near future will buy all available TP, driving the price of 1 TP roll per 10 000BTC. So I gracefully propose 1 TP roll for 1BTC right now. Send to me your bitcoins and I will FedEx you the TP right now.
Send the coins to: 3PVrzHfJxquWsVbhoZ1yWqswWFzhLMWXNG
Pm me your address.

You will thank me later.
Best regards!

The 5% combined order book looks pretty impressive in favour of the bulls, esp. on Bitfinex. This should be the end of the bear cycle.

I just caught that dip to buy moar   For now I am done buying. But if the bears insist on selling, bring it on, I am ready!

The reason for this drop is very simple: I bought 0.31 BTC  yesterday at $9100. Bitcoin gods hate me  . But they can't beat math. The last week was very interesting for me. I secured 5000 euro for immediate buys + 20 000 euro in case some dramatic crash happens below 6K. With the remaining 2500 euro I can buy another 0.35BTC if the price remains for the next 2 days. I am so happy that I endured all turbulences and increased my stash. I started with 7 BTC from my ethereum rigs in early 2017, and now I am at 17+BTC,  despite one premature sell in the Summer of 2017. It was a mistake of the growth. Then I shifted my goals from $20K profits to much higher. Hopefully I will be able to make the classic 21 BTC before starting to sell according to my plan.

Time to buy some pre-halving corn:  0.312BTC. Next week may be the same amount  

Hodler's wealth is build on traders stop losses. Let them lose their money. I feel sorry for them, but there is no other way. It is another gift to buy at these levels. Next week I will buy moar. I am going to replace the credit card limit with a loan which has 3x less interest, thus getting $5555 for the same monthly 50 euro payments. Waiting for a call from the bank to finalize the documents...  

Just bought 0.0777BTC immediately withdrawn to my cold storage.   Hopefully more people will learn to do the same, instead of looking for a quick profit.  The more bitcoins are removed from exchanges the better.

I couldn't agree more. The funny thing is that the only extra cash I planned to save for this year was for a vacantion in Italy or France. With this corona shit going on, obvioiusly I won't need that fiat, so I continue to be 0% in terms of fiat savings. I think as long as the safety precautions regarding keeping and transferring bitcoins are taken, there is no risk in being your own bank. Banks aren't safe, there are numerous thefts from bank accounts by bank employees, drained credit cards, etc. The best you can achieve in this fiat world is to maintain a parity between USD and Euro savings.

But what will be the gain compared to Bitcoin in longterm? 0% compared to 10x, 100x, etc... I prefer to hodl until I retire in 20 years rather than to keep some nonsense fiat. I am happy to live with Bitcoin and my mind is focused on increasing my stash, rather than selling for fiat. Hopefully in few years, we will be able to buy real estate worldwide with bitcoins, so the banks may not be needed at all.

I am not so sure if we will see 100K in the next 3-5 years, but if not, I will continue to DCA and find another resourses in case of emergencies. Even if we imagine for the sake of bear trolls that in the next 20 years we will stay at the current levels, if we continue to DCA, in the end the price will go somewhere near 20K and we all be millionaires. So it is a win win situation. It always has been. But of course, most probably, even under 10 years we will see prices above 100K. It is only 10x from now, so if we have another year like 2017, this may happen any year. However, it will take more time for the price to stabilize above 100K and achieve some epic ATH's around and above gold's.

... for my wage to arrive at my bank account later today. I am going to place a huge buying wall of 0.077BTC at CB. This will stop the crash for sure!  Bears, you have been warned! 

sheeeeit

10K 

Everyone should be in accumulation mode before the halving, except addicted shorters who don't know about it. If you ask them they will either answer: "Nope, I didn't hear about it. 10 000 is a nice number and I can make calculations easier, so it is the time to short." Or, "Oh, yeah... I remeber reading about the halving and someone in twitter said it was already priced in. 10 000 is a nice number and I can make calculations easier, so it is the time to short." Exhibit A is one of the many newbies like whiteboy, who was posting about his shorts at 6.7K. We didn't hear from him since then, so I can only imagine how his shorts played out so far. He's been probably liquated 10 times so far, but if he makes a successful short now, I am sure he will come here to brag about it.  

This is how a hodler experiences a roller coaster like today's action:

Actually 2-3 hours. Even the perma bulls can underesimate the bull run  

It is even better than this: