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961  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bears take on the current price? Input need from Bears only on: November 29, 2011, 12:28:22 AM
Bid 2     53590.2
Bid 2.05 19367.82
Bid 2.1   27881.07
Bid 2.15 10895.42
Bid 2.2   12197.71
Bid 2.25 5141.49
Bid 2.3   5594.79
Bid 2.35 5372.81
Bid 2.4   6338.23
Bid 2.45 6720.36
Bid 2.5   6207.89
Bid 2.55 2860.6


These are some bidwalls that are being put up. It is obviously done by the same person.

I really should not overlook the fundamentals. This guy is artificially keeping the price higher, so he will have to pay for it out of his own pocket. How long can he do this for? Especially considering the higher the price goes the more money it takes him to keep the artificial price at that higher point.

There is still 7500K of bitcoins entering the market new every day. This will eventually be too much for him to try and maintain.

But I should not be fooled by his manipulation attempts. It does seem to offer some security, but many times he has pulled out and the price shot down by a large amount.

I think I will sit this one out. It could be in his strategy to eventually pull out.

Lets look at the obvious here. If he wanted to buy bitcoins, why would he put up all the bidwalls making the price higher for himself. This would be a bad strategy to buy bitcoins. He has obviously alternative motives with these bidwalls, and it is not to buy bitcoins.



There are only 7700K bitcoins in existance. There are 7500 coming to market every day which on a percentage basis anymore becomes less and less important. Once the issue rate halves then it will be even more dramatic. This is why bitcoin as a currency is intended to be much better than fiat currencies which get issued at an increasing percentage rate.
962  Other / Off-topic / Re: 1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam? on: November 29, 2011, 12:00:03 AM
Paypal is a joke and it doesn't even cover all Ebay purchases. I got scammed once and it cost me about $40 for a supposed legit windows key. I was informed that the buyer protection does not apply to digital objects. Funny because the ebay ad even said it was eligible for purchase protection. Ever since then I have been very bitter about them. Good luck with trying to get your money back.

I received a response from PayPal regarding my inquiry. Turns out DeathAndTaxes isn't right. Chargebacks are only guaranteed when you purchase from eBay. (Emphasis added)

Ouch.  Pretty assholish for Paypal to call it the Buyer Protection when it only applies to Ebay purchases.  I have to think that is intentional double speak.  IF they wanted to be clear why not have Ebay Buyer protection policy and Paypal General Buyer protection policy. 

So looks like your rights for non-ebay chargebacks are next to nothing.  If I am reading that right, from that email it looks like the seller could ship a brick (literally) and you would have no resource.   Sound about right?
963  Other / Off-topic / Re: 1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam? on: November 28, 2011, 04:29:27 AM
Surprise, surprise. Another delay in the demo. I will be surprised if they actually are able to show inaba it working. In the meantime I wonder if they got any 26k orders for the big box.
True.

Legitimate software NEVER ships with bugs.  There can be NO DOUBT the Butterfly Single IS a SCAM!

DO NOT spend your money on the scammer widgits.

It just seems too convenient that they are having problems getting it to work and keep on pushing back a working demo.
New hardware, new software,  Primary development was done on Windows. Inaba's laptop probably was running ubuntu(if the same as photo). I'm willing to give BFL the benefit of the doubt, we should have a clearer idea in a few days.

Im sure Inaba could have put windows on there and im sure OS would have been discussed as they were planning a demo. Yes it could be a bug but I still find it awfully suspicious and convenient. How could they know precisely the MH/s and power consumption if it has never been running? Sometimes things dont work as well as planned you know
964  Other / Off-topic / Re: 1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam? on: November 28, 2011, 04:16:18 AM
Surprise, surprise. Another delay in the demo. I will be surprised if they actually are able to show inaba it working. In the meantime I wonder if they got any 26k orders for the big box.
True.

Legitimate software NEVER ships with bugs.  There can be NO DOUBT the Butterfly Single IS a SCAM!

DO NOT spend your money on the scammer widgits.

It just seems too convenient that they are having problems getting it to work and keep on pushing back a working demo.
965  Other / Off-topic / Re: 1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam? on: November 28, 2011, 03:16:15 AM
Surprise, surprise. Another delay in the demo. I will be surprised if they actually are able to show inaba it working. In the meantime I wonder if they got any 26k orders for the big box.
966  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is it tripple bottom? on: November 22, 2011, 01:17:53 PM
Until most of the bid walls go poof as soon as the price gets near. 

Except last time we were down to $2 and all the bidwalls did not exist there was still a very large invisible bidwall keeping the price there. That along with the fact we now at least appear to have 2 manipulators/big players who are on opposite sides of the asking price I would have to agree this is the bottom. How long we remain here is definitely a question now.
967  Economy / Speculation / Re: "Aaaaaaand the waaaallllls... on: November 22, 2011, 05:27:52 AM
I have ZERO doubt that there are a few rather large players at work here. But, I think there is only one person/group/entity that has nearly bottomless pockets/wallets that can place 50k+ walls on either side or both, as we have seen a few months ago.


Anyway, I try not to worry too much about the manipulators' pathetic games because I am of the opinion that the long term movements will occur independently of what they do. Smaller traders just need to have balls of steel right now, bears and bulls alike, because large upwards movements spook the bears and large downwards movements leave the bulls paralyzed. And these large movements can be achieved easily at the moment. This will change over time as bitcoin becomes more widely adopted and coins are distributed more evenly among market participants.

Absolutely! I was just showing the balance. We may actually be at an equilibrium. The price remains fairly stable... for now!

Its a lot of fun seeing one manipulator raise bid walls when they want to get rid of coins and the other manipulator raise the ask wall simaltaneous as to say f**k you lol. Definitely more than one big player at work for anyone watching MTGox live. Either that or one really dumb big player.
968  Economy / Speculation / Re: "Aaaaaaand the waaaallllls... on: November 22, 2011, 04:09:38 AM
It is likely though that there is more than 1 manipulator in the game. There is at least one bearish manipulator and one bullish manipulator and they seem to be playing a high stakes tug-of-war game.

If you watch mtgoxlive when there are big movements, you can see large asks being pulled as the price rises in the same way that you see large bids being pulled when it falls. It could be the cumulative result of individual actors hoping for better prices though... but equally, that could explain some the bid-side 'manipulation' too.

I noted earlier there appears to be more than one manipulator in the game right now and they are working against each other. As one would raise the bid walls, the other would raise the ask walls which gave us stability for quite some time. Of course this could be the collective movements of several people but with the size of the walls it at least appears to be a couple of big players.
969  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where is the BTCUSD average between 11/21 & 12/20? on: November 22, 2011, 01:16:24 AM
I think the average will be somewhere around 2.59 over this time period. I expect prices to rise soon with the stability after we hit bottom.
970  Economy / Speculation / Re: How fast will bitcoin recover? on: November 22, 2011, 01:15:13 AM
I think the calm of the market the last 24 hours has been very strange to say the least. There has been very little actiivty in the way of up or down but we have slowly been trending upwards. The rapid swings of the previous week are much easier to make more bitcoins on lol. Either way I am expecting something big to happen in the next 24 hours.
971  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do Bitcoin prices belong? on: November 21, 2011, 05:12:10 AM
All bitcoins can be spent the same and therfore have the same merit.

This just isn't necessarily true.
As I explained - governments could easily make certain bitcoins less spendable.

Already, mtgox is known to have been tracking certain stolen coins.   I believe recently someone's mtgox account was temporarily locked because of this.
In that case - it ultimately didn't stop the coins being spent as the depositor was considered an innocent party - but there's no reason a larger such system couldn't enforce the issue more strongly.


Bitcoins are borderless and could be trasnferred and hidden in countries that are enemys of the countrys being dealt with without much effort. Still it is all very traceable but its not likke the government could step in and confiscate someones bitcoins or force them to be taken out of circulation. Such a larger system would have to be borderless and could only be enforced by the open source community as I am sure they would not bow to the will of any one country. The very art of outlawing bitcoins however, I speculate would raise prices as they become more sought after by the illegal community. I howver would rather see them become more popular among legitimate merchants and consumers.
972  Economy / Speculation / Re: Occupy Wall Street and BTC Prices on: November 21, 2011, 05:07:59 AM
If those OWS a-holes have android phones, I'll punch them myself.  WTF are they spending money on an android phone if they are worried about paying for s**t they "need." 

I don't own an android phone, and I seem to get along just fine.  Maybe that will help them balance their checkbook...



They even have cars and microwaves, and internet!  Fucking poors.   

And I suppose you would only be happy if they couldnt even afford toilet paper? Doesnt say what kind of car but people need to get places. There are a lot of working poor out there. Also in the US I believe there are cell phones that are specifically subsidized for poor people.

Incidentally I dont own a car (anymore), cell phone, garbage disposal, satellite tv, washing machine or dryer. I guess I must be poor. I sure as heck feel like it though. So much for bettering your life through post secondary education.

Who promised secondary education would better your life?  Hard work and frugal lifestyles lead to success...  Secondary education is only one tool to help open the doors.  You have to get yourself through them.

I have been very frugal and have worked very hard but I have only been marginalized at every opportunity. Hard work has nothing to do with it and who you know has everything to do with it. Companies are under the impression you must have a masters degree in order to do anything (even menial tasks) in companies anymore. I have made 30ik per month PROFT for my company and they still saw it fit to keep my wages on the margins of society claiming the economy. I used to believe hard work and proving yourself meant something but they simply do not.

As for who told me post secondary education would get me somewhere in life where do I start? Teachers, the government, companies, television, news, etc. It is all a big lie and sadly people are getting into massive debt for school that just wont pay off. This is coming from someone who was an executive in student council at my school and worked for my teachers there as well so i have a good view on the inside of the education system. Schools are a business but are propped up by government advertising and the like.

Corporations have sadly bought into it and want you to have a masters degree in order to even do menial tasks. Maybe 10 years ago a bachelors degree meant something but today it will only get you a job at mcdonalds for 100K debt (and Im not talking about arts studies). I am very fed up with this myself and am trying to start a trade because I see now that I can have a much larger impact on society than any corporation will let me have and my pay will be a lot better than if I left it up to the greedy corporations alone.
973  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do Bitcoin prices belong? on: November 21, 2011, 04:35:16 AM
I hope bitcoin will turn out to be a great thing but it could very well turn out to be a terrible thing as we have seen with SR.

I don't see how Silk Road has been a terrible thing.
What could turn out to be a terrible thing would be if radical groups who otherwise couldn't get together enough resources, manage to use bitcoin to source enough financial backing to be dangerous.

I suspect governments will employ sophisticated software to track the blockchain, and rather than attempt to ban bitcoin as a whole - will do something like declare that all bitcoin transfers must be traceable to a 'clean' source.  ie - all the way back to an exchange which keeps records in accordance with AML laws.
or at the very least require that businesses subscribe to government blacklist of known 'dirty' bitcoin address-chains.  
Businesses/individuals which accept 'dirty' transactions will risk penalty, or at least the inability to spend those coins with other regulated businesses etc.
Once certain coins become hard to spend at popular merchants - the government 'coin-checking' software would spread and become an appealing add-on to ordinary users because they don't want 'dodgy' coins.

While it would be a lot of data to track, I think it's well within the range of what software can do.  
Eventually Bitcoin may turn out to provide a lot less privacy from governments than people imagine.

That raises the interesting spectre of loss of fungibility.  Some bitcoins will be worth more than others - and we'll end up with 'blackmarket' bitcoin exchanges as well as 'whitemarket' exchanges.   Am I way out of line with this reasoning?

All bitcoins can be spent the same and therfore have the same merit. Just like the dollar in that sense. Silkroad has been a bad thing because it has associated bitcoin with the drug economy. What we need is bitcoins being used for more legitimate purposes such as buying and selling computer parts, computer power, etc. There is not a whole lot of work involved with tracking every transaction as it stands now as the blockchains are all published online with blockexplorer. Those that think bitcoin is anonymous are naive at best.
974  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do Bitcoin prices belong? on: November 21, 2011, 04:10:07 AM
So far we have 60% above current prices and 40% below. Very interesting results indeed.
975  Economy / Speculation / Re: Timeline of "The Manipulator" on: November 21, 2011, 03:48:42 AM
LOL I am those last two. Guess I am important after all  Grin
976  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do Bitcoin prices belong? on: November 21, 2011, 03:28:17 AM
'belong' is a funny term to use, but I voted anyway.  In fact, they 'belong' wherever they happen to be in any given situation sort of by definition.

I choose $30.00+ to indicate that that is where they need to be in order to have a semi-functional and semi-useful monetary system (given the various parameters of supply, user-base, etc.)

We may never get there, but I've been prepared for that all along.  I'd be bummed, but only partly because I have always had some suspicion that Bitcoin could turn out to be a terrible thing for society.  If we never find out it will be at least a mixed blessing.



Thanks for your input. I think somewhere around mining prices for the average joe is the correct value. I think $30 a couple of years from now is very appropriate since the reward per block will be halved and therefore its true vision as the opposite of a fiat currency will come to be true. I agree however that current or lower market values present too much volatility and too many people with large sums of coins or money can control the market in either direction.

I hope bitcoin will turn out to be a great thing but it could very well turn out to be a terrible thing as we have seen with SR. I really hope we do not see less than $1 BTC because in my opinion it would signal the end of bitcoins.
977  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do Bitcoin prices belong? on: November 21, 2011, 03:17:13 AM
Interesting that no one has yet pegged the current market value. Going by the current concesnsus which is sure to change I would say that in general people seem to believe it is desperately want it to be worth significantly more than it is right now.

FTFY



A little upset we arent heading to less than $1 BTC in all likelihood are we?

I used to go to reddit for my laughs. Thank you for being you.

-Jonathan

Feel free to donate your supposed worthless bitcoin if you feel my entertainment is of value to you Grin.
978  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do Bitcoin prices belong? on: November 21, 2011, 03:12:25 AM
Interesting that no one has yet pegged the current market value. Going by the current concesnsus which is sure to change I would say that in general people seem to believe it is desperately want it to be worth significantly more than it is right now.

FTFY



A little upset we arent heading to less than $1 BTC in all likelihood are we?
979  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are you trading for FIAT or BTC profit? on: November 21, 2011, 03:10:21 AM
I started mining recently because I am fed up with fiat currency and the endless issuance of currency. I also recently upgraded my PC to a level that would facilitate bitcoin mining making it more viable. As for the current 2.20 pricepoint I too wonder if we have hit the real bottom. The people cheering for 1.xx bitcoins I think are only doing because they want to buy at this price or are bitter about what they have lost. I have done a bit of trading in the last few days but i have increased my BTC holdings by about 2%. I am reluctant to trade either way right now because I really have no idea which way the market is headed at this point.
980  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do Bitcoin prices belong? on: November 21, 2011, 03:05:43 AM
Interesting that no one has yet pegged the current market value. Going by the current concesnsus which is sure to change I would say that in general people seem to believe it is worth significantly more than it is right now.
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