Good evening. CCMF?
Yes, been watching that 3-day chart too. Looked promising until the last candle closed and now shows further weakness. The Ghost of Gox is spooking the markets. Need an exorcism! |
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I am not a resident of Japan, I live in Canada but I see any delay in domestic (within Japan) JPY withdrawals as a very serious negative indication of the creditworthiness of MTGox.
I agree with you, but the plausible theory for this is that because USD wires are blocked and euro ones are glacial, then the main flow of fiat out of gox recently is via yen. This presents a problem as gox may not have enough incoming yen deposits and would need to convert USD or euro holdings into yen. They are stuck on that, hence the yen withdrawals are drying up too. |
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Nadeem Walayat of Market Oracle has the same mental block as Karl Denninger of Market Ticker: they have both devoted years to pointing out the failings of the fiat system to the point where they can't see beyond it, or the prior gold standard. They know the fiat system is doomed, or at least will continue in cycles of booms and busts reducing all the OECD countries to an Argentina-like mess.
In contrast, Satoshi Nakamoto did the hard slog of designing and building a new alternative that kicks the whole fiat system into touch. Walayat and Denninger just can't understand that there is now a proven and viable alternative. One that is getting stronger every day.
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I want to describe in my work the impacts bitcoin can have on the old economy.
Total value of all bitcoins is about $7.6bn right now. That's not going to have any noticeable impact on the world's economy. In relative terms it's small beans. That's exactly what people could have said about the cellular phone market in 1990. Looking forward 10 years cryptocurrency will have a massive effect on the world economy, whether or not Bitcoin is No.1 crypto. A major effect will be Bitcoin rendering currency controls ineffective. Currency controls are being increasingly discussed as the integrity of the world's fiat system itself is under relentless pressure since 2008 from the ongoing Credit Crisis. |
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Not sure if I am the first to notice this or someone has already commented on it, BUT..... there seems to be the beginnings of a slight divergence in the price of Bitcoins on MtGox vs. Bitstamp. If I am reading the price correctly, it is lower on MtGox and higher on BitStamp. Thoughts?
If by "slight divergence" you mean 40% difference, then yes. As it's Olympics time, give that man a podium and a medal for the understatement of the year. |
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I would be really surprised if there is not a major bounce on gox from the $460 level, as this was the cycle low after the last ATH. It would also take the gloom off the other markets, particularly China who seem to think gox is still a benchmark.
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When ZH first posted that article it had a title like "Why aren't Europeans buying Bitcoin". Then they quickly amended it. |
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It seems like people are now able to withdraw BTC from both Bitstamp and Btc-e, multiple posters now confirming that they have done so.
Is this officially confirmed now?
If that's true... Can we expect big withdraws from stamp? I'm sure many will move their btc back to their safe wallets in case that error repeats... At least I will. I'm leaving my trading stash on bitstamp, ready for a spike, just in case gox starts paying out and the scramble to buy coins goes mental. |
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Grrr. They still quote gox on CNN |
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square root (Cycle High / Cycle Low) * Cycle Low
666.716 = sqrt (1163 / 382.21) * 382.21
That could be more simply stated as sqrt (Cycle High*Cycle Low), that is, the geometric mean. Very nice. It seems it was around 115 in the earlier bear market, so we seem to be in an equivalent to June last year. Stable, but in need of shaking the last weak hands. Yes indeed, of course. And I did notice that after the April peak it steadily became the "new normal" until the fundamentals ramped up markedly in November. |
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Bitstamp is trading exactly at medium-term equilibrium, ~$667:
Equilibrium Price = square root (Cycle High / Cycle Low) * Cycle Low
666.716 = sqrt (1163 / 382.21) * 382.21
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I get the feeling the market won't bounce until stamp restarts withdrawals, also that China is still watching gox thinking that it means something.
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The "200,000" traders (if that number is to be believed) do not own any bitcoins on eToro. They can't deposit or withdraw. Their accounts are CFDs. They trade instantly with eToro. eToro must hold BTC in order to be risk neutral for its own book. The daily order execution is eToro, as market-maker, buying and selling on a Bitcoin exchange to hedge the net long/short position of all the traders. They must have their own long-term prop fund to use as well. thank you. I did not understand CFD's. Now I do. seems a decent gambling book. prudent to step up their execution schedule when dealing with bitcoin, though they might want to go at least hourly... bitcoin likes to move it move it. No surprise that CFDs are illegal in the USA, but invented and legal in the Wild West of Fiat (also known as London) where AIG's traders ran that company into a bankrupt state and JP Morgan's whale trader lost them billions too. |
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The way bitcoin trades has completely changed. There is this consistent amount of high volume buy orders and sell orders on the books on bitstamp and btce and all this buying for this huge amount of coins but the price doesn't go anywhere. If there was this much buying in November then the price would have gone to over 9000. When I watch BitcoinWisdom, I feel like I'm watching Litecoin.
Perhaps it is the side-effect of this from mid January (and they are now using stamp/btce not gox). According to Navidan, almost 5% of eToro’s active user base (about 200,000 users) have open bitcoin positions at the moment. Users from South America, the UK and Germany are currently the top bitcoin traders.http://www.coindesk.com/etoro-launches-bitcoin-trading-3-million-users/still trying (failing) to catch up, but this excerpt from that article caught my attention. "Orders for bitcoin on the site will be executed four times a day, which is more frequent than the daily order execution for equities on the platform."  what? please tell me that this is not normal to wait for "daily order execution" when dealing with the legacy system. traders must be able to trade instantly, otherwise, it kinda sucks. why would you even sign up for that? maybe I'm just not understanding what "daily order execution" means? The "200,000" traders (if that number is to be believed) do not own any bitcoins on eToro. They can't deposit or withdraw. Their accounts are CFDs. They trade instantly with eToro. eToro must hold BTC in order to be risk neutral for its own book. The daily order execution is eToro, as market-maker, buying and selling on a Bitcoin exchange to hedge the net long/short position of all the traders. They must have their own long-term prop fund to use as well. |
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The way bitcoin trades has completely changed. There is this consistent amount of high volume buy orders and sell orders on the books on bitstamp and btce and all this buying for this huge amount of coins but the price doesn't go anywhere. If there was this much buying in November then the price would have gone to over 9000. When I watch BitcoinWisdom, I feel like I'm watching Litecoin.
Perhaps it is the side-effect of this from mid January (and they are now using stamp/btce not gox). According to Navidan, almost 5% of eToro’s active user base (about 200,000 users) have open bitcoin positions at the moment. Users from South America, the UK and Germany are currently the top bitcoin traders.http://www.coindesk.com/etoro-launches-bitcoin-trading-3-million-users/Are you saying that the eToro platform integrates bitstamp and btce? Yes, but only for eToro itself to balance its net position as the bitcoin traders there see it as a stock, i.e. a CFD instrument. |
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The way bitcoin trades has completely changed. There is this consistent amount of high volume buy orders and sell orders on the books on bitstamp and btce and all this buying for this huge amount of coins but the price doesn't go anywhere. If there was this much buying in November then the price would have gone to over 9000. When I watch BitcoinWisdom, I feel like I'm watching Litecoin.
Perhaps it is the side-effect of this from mid January (and they are now using stamp/btce not gox). According to Navidan, almost 5% of eToro’s active user base (about 200,000 users) have open bitcoin positions at the moment. Users from South America, the UK and Germany are currently the top bitcoin traders.http://www.coindesk.com/etoro-launches-bitcoin-trading-3-million-users/ |
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Can you please remove the gox part on the site? I think all normal people should thumb down this misunderstanding.
Big fat -1. I hate mtgox as much as anyone else, but as long as there's trading volume on there, they should be listed. A charting site isn't a moral court: it shows prices. If people still trade on gox, btcwisdom should show it. I agree. MtGox should not be on any price feed such as bitcoinaverage, but it should be able to be found on charting services. |
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While i understand ignoring mt gox for "withdrawals blocked" - it doesn't change that trades are occurring. Kind of need the data still. Thanks
It's not data, it's noise. |
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