I can't believe what I am seeing right now. Every time I say Liverpool can't do worse, it just surprises me by the worst imaginable scenario. What a shame and indeed I believe Klopp won't hold his position at the end of the year if he lost a spot for European leagues since I doubt they can be a part of CL with such results.
I think Liverpool's confidence has completely gone. The more they lose, the worse it gets. I don't know how they get out of it really, but at the moment they don't look at all likely to qualify for the Champion's League. Also the next four teams below them all have games in hand... it's not inconceivable that Liverpool could drop into the bottom half of the table  |
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I believe in City to win but still have my doubts a little that maybe Manchester Utd could get a point somehow.
I have a suspicion that Man U might sneak a draw here. City's winning run has to end at some time. Man U's last three games I think have been 0-0, and they haven't lost since January. |
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That there is a 100% excess mortality peak in April tells me nothing if the overall excess mortality is around 5%. As I say, it may be due to different factors, among other things that at that time COVID was something new. If you add another disease to the mortality rate we already had, even if statistically it has a low mortality, the overall mortality rate will normally increase. This is fully compatible with COVID cases being inflated, as has been done, by counting completely asymptomatic people as COVID or also counting common flu cases as COVID. But from your link (my bold): Relative excess mortality in the countries we have examined ranges from -4.3% to 14.4% and is strongly positively correlated with the recorded number of COVID-19 deaths (r = 0.8 ) A correlation value of 0.8 is pretty conclusive evidence that the excess deaths are due to Covid. The occurrence of the large peak in April may be due to many causes, including collapse of the hospital system.
I don't understand the point you're making with this bit, sorry. Please could you explain? Hospital systems don't in general collapse spontaneously. But they can become overwhelmed, leading to lower quality care and more deaths, if they are hit by something like — for example — a huge influx of patients due to a pandemic. |
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But still there are many countries who are yet to receive their ordered vaccines which means how they able to reduce the number of cases in the same time? Maybe it has an effect but it is clear that media lost their interest so we are not seeing much aggressive news about covid and it also seems that number of affected persons are also decreasing.
Look at the data and see if there are any clear patterns. Anecdotal evidence and speculation give us nothing... nothing beyond an initial hypothesis, which then needs to be tested against the data. We've had a year of this pandemic, all around the globe. There are vast quantities of data from a vast number of independent sources. Let's not rely on speculation too much. Pick a country that has reduced cases but no real vaccination programme. Look at the data, and see what's happening. Has a lockdown reduced community transmission? Compulsory mask-wearing? Is there a decline in testing, and therefore a decline in confirmed cases? Is the government claiming that Covid deaths are actually deaths from other causes - in which case the pattern would become clear from an excess mortality analysis. What do the data tell us? |
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Vaccinations too? I don't think that government have given enough vaccines to reduce the covid 19 yet so its something happening naturally not due to any actions taken by governments.
Vaccinations are having a clear statistical effect, yes. Take a look at the charts below for the UK. Firstly, vaccination progress. Over 32% of the UK population have now had at least one dose. You will note that vaccination rate increased sharply from around mid-January. Vaccinations have been administered to people in 5-year age bands, starting from the most elderly (and vulnerable). The 80+ age group was completed some time ago, and we have now progressed down through the bandings into the 60yos.  Secondly, death rate for confirmed Covid cases has fallen sharply for the (vaccinated) 80+ age group over the last few weeks... and - crucially, as a metric of vaccine effectiveness - is falling far more quickly than it is for younger (and mostly unvaccinated) age groups. Note that obviously death is a lagging indicator when we are considering Covid cases, so the current stats are representative of the earlier stages of vaccine distribution... which means that we can expect the downward trend in death rate to continue amongst the vaccinated.  https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/965771/2021-03-01_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides.pdf |
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counting as dead by COVID people as cancer patients who exceed life expectancy, although they did not show any symptoms, if they were tested for COVID and were positive.
This is the same argument from a few days ago. My response is the same: if you don't trust reason for death, then just look at total deaths from any reason... Something has been killing huge numbers of people over the last year, way more than normal... and this just happens to coincide with the Covid pandemic. There hasn't been a flu-or-anything-else pandemic. Look, for example, at the UK in April 2020, peak of the first wave of Covid... deaths more than 100% above the 2015-2019 average. The pattern is stark, the evidence conclusive.  https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid Your response (below) didn't address the question. I'm saying, okay, if you don't think that people are dying of Covid, if you think the mortality is no different to flu, then what is the reason for so many more people dying than normal, and why do the excess deaths coincide with waves of Covid infections? Look at the data. You haven't read the article published in the World Health Organisation that I've put before. I'll put it again: https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdfIt basically says that mortality from COVID is not much different than mortality from the flu. That peak is because anyone who died was labeled as the cause of death: "COVID". There was a video around of the Irish parliament where an MP was questioning someone from Health and one by one he picked apart how alleged COVID deaths were labeled. |
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Bitcointalk profile link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1118642Current amount of posts (including this one): 3212 How much merit have you earned in the last 120 days: 144 SegWit BTC Address for Payouts: bc1q35y86908na4ep32ww38ha4gk4ssuvw89m2leqz as always, will update sig and avatar promptly if accepted |
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All these cars are nice looking. Can’t wait to see what RBR looks like...
Yes, I'm waiting for Red Bull, too. They're being really secretive... so either they have some amazingly innovative new design that they don't want anyone else copying, or else they want to pretend they have  But I think we are all suspecting that once they start racing, Mercedes will pull away from the rest. Remember that the main reason Red Bull were able to close the gap in the second half of last season was that Mercedes had already stopped developing their 2020 car to start on the 2021 iteration... so Mercedes, the best developers, already had months of headstart on the other teams... |
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^^^ Think of it this way.
Why would I think of it your way, when you've just provided a conspiracy theory with no backing data? Give me data, not opinion! Big Pharma leaders
I'm not denying that pharmaceutical companies often engage in appalling and reprehensible practices in order to make money. Some would rather people die than drop their prices, Martin Shkreli being a particularly obnoxious example. But this doesn't mean that vaccines don't work. |
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~
Most of your questions are addressed in this thread. It does (in the later pages) go on to cover other aspects of quantum mechanics and elementary particle physics too, so worth a read if you're interested in those topics. But don't believe all the breathless headlines about QCs. A lot of it is as-yet-unrealised hype. For example, 'number of qubits' is often the headline figure, but this disregards the huge and unresolved challenges in maintaining quantum coherence, which obviously scales up with number of qubits. Another point is that some of these 'quantum computers' are actually annealers (hello D-Wave), which is a different thing entirely, and more suited to resolving optimisation problems (e.g., travelling salesman) than to attacking bitcoin. |
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the medical hasn't really cured anything with vaccines. But maybe ignorance is bliss, right?
How about smallpox? The vaccine hasn't just saved lives, it's eradicated the disease entirely. No new cases since 1977. https://ourworldindata.org/smallpox#eradication-of-smallpoxTo date the eradication of smallpox saved millions of lives. It is impossible to know very exactly how many people would have died of smallpox since 1980 if scientists had not developed the vaccine, but reasonable estimates are in the range of around 5 million lives per year, which implies that between 1980 and 2018 around 150 to 200 million lives have been saved. Global decline of smallpox
Global data on the number of smallpox cases is shown in the chart. Shown here is the number of reported smallpox cases worldwide from 1920 until the last case in 1977. Just the reported number of smallpox cases between 1920 and 1978 already amounted to 11.6 million cases; and that number was certainly smaller than the actual number of cases, although we do not know by how much. Even though smallpox had a high visibility and should therefore be relatively easy to document, the lack of an international organization dedicated to global health means the number of reported cases is probably substantially lower than the true number of cases. Crosby (1993) estimates that in 1967 10-15 million people were still being infected with smallpox every year while the chart on the reported cases below indicates only 132,000 for that same year. The reasons and extent of discrepancies between reported and estimated cases are discussed in our section on Data Quality.   |
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I don't follow how this becomes easier to crack than RSA though.
AFAIK there are two separate quantum Shor algorithms, one for integer factorisation and one for discrete logs. https://cds.cern.ch/record/602816/files/0301141.pdfI'm not familiar with the intricacies of the algorithms, but there is also the consideration that problems that are of a similar difficulty from a classical perspective are not necessarily equal for a QC, due to the entanglement of qubits meaning that processing power scales 2^n. But I'm not sure that for a QC the distinction between ECDSA difficulty and RSA difficulty is really much of an issue. If something is built that can break ECDSA, then RSA will not be far behind. All asymmetric cryptography is theoretically vulnerable. |
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There is another suggestion that just the design of the Ferrari car itself did not resemble Vettel himself, similar to how it was said that something similar was one of the reasons for Schumacher's failure in Mercedes at one time.
This could be a factor I suppose, although I'd say it's unlikely given the amount of time he spent at Ferrari that they never managed to get a car that suited their lead driver. A lot depends on this coming season. We can talk endlessly about Vettel's time at Ferrari, but when we see how he performs at his new team, it should answer a lot of the open questions about just how good he really is. @coinlocket$ - Nice images of the new Mercedes. Strange that they've only shown a front view and a side view... when it's probably the rear view that the other teams will get used to seeing during the season  |
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Bitcointalk Profile Link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1118642Current amount of posts (including this one): 3204 Amount of EARNED merit in the last 120 days: 136 bech32 BTC Address for Payouts: bc1q35y86908na4ep32ww38ha4gk4ssuvw89m2leqz will update sig and avatar promptly if accepted |
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Read the OP and see what kinds of things are happening to all kinds of people.
Whilst I hope that Jet Cash's partner's friend is okay, your statement here isn't a valid argument. You can't say "x happened to one person, therefore it's a general trend across the country/world". In order to understand what is happening, you need to start from large datasets. |
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I think Fulham will escape relegation, and one of the four teams above them will take their place in the bottom three... most likely on recent form Southampton or Newcastle.
Hmmm... I monitored the match, and i agree with you. Southampton is in terrible situation right now, and maybe Fulham will escape the relegation.
Having said that, I've just seen Fulham's next 3 matches: Tottenham, Liverpool, Man C ... so it may be difficult for them to escape the relegation zone over the next few rounds of fixtures. But if Southampton keep dropping as they are, Fulham still have a decent chance of staying up. |
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The truth is that COVID mortality is no much different than flu mortality
We've had this argument quite a lot over the last year. My answer has always been: don't look at reason for death, look at number of deaths from any reason. Something has been killing huge numbers of people over the last year, way more than normal... and this just happens to coincide with the Covid pandemic. There hasn't been a flu-or-anything-else pandemic. Look, for example, at the UK in April 2020, peak of the first wave of Covid... deaths more than 100% above the 2015-2019 average. The pattern is stark, the evidence conclusive. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid |
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At Ferrari he failed miserably for six consecutive years and in a couple of them Ferrari was not that behind and at some tracks even equal to Mercedes.
Exactly. Whilst Mercedes have in general been better, there was one season when Ferrari definitely had the better car in the second half of the season, and a better driver would likely have won them the championship. I’d argue Vettel’s ‘deterioration’ has prolly more to do with low motivation and something psychological than lack of skill. If you guys remember he did some brilliant stuff when he was at Torro Rosso and was one of the most talented young drivers around at the time.
I'd agree with the motivation thing for 2020 certainly, it's difficult for anyone to be motivated when they know their contract isn't being renewed. But I can't see it being a valid point for prior seasons. He did look good some years back at Toro Rosso, but there is a gulf of difference between being a talented young driver (latest example being George Russell), and being truly world-class. |
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Here are my opinions on how the game will play out  Everton 3-1 Southampton Becareful on this match, i think it will be draw or Southampton Win , this is not betting advice, but if you want to win, try to choose Southampton I have more than 6 years of football betting experience #DYOR Bit late for me to post this when Everton are already winning... but if one team in the premiership look like losing at the moment it's Southampton. They're on a terrible streak and are losing almost every game. I think Fulham will escape relegation, and one of the four teams above them will take their place in the bottom three... most likely on recent form Southampton or Newcastle. |
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Leicester recent poor of form is worrisome.
Yes. This is the wrong time of the season to start dropping points, they could find their place in the top 4 under threat. Particularly as Spurs won 4-0 and Liverpool won as well - a couple of big teams lower down the tables who will have eyes on a Champion's League place. And we can't forget Chelsea lurking just outside the top 4, either. |
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