This is an eloquent distillation of my entire argument in this thread.

The Venezeulan crisis is not a black and white issue. The presence of vast oil reserves is the underlying fact. What we then have is generation after generation of messy history applied on top. It's easy to blame whoever is running things at the moment, but to do so is to conduct only the most superficial analysis. Maduro certainly hasn't been great, but picking up the presidency when he did was akin to picking up a live grenade... which had been passed through many hands before it reached him.

This weekend could prove vital, with the top 4 playing each other: Barca vs Atletico, Real vs Sevilla.
Sevilla are probably out of the race after their last defeat, they're now six points off the top with only four games remaining... but they can still play a huge part in deciding the title if they take points off Real Madrid... which they are quite capable of doing.

If you read my post, I'm saying that Chavez is partly to blame. I'm also saying Maduro is partly to blame. I'm not an apologist for the far-left. But I'm also saying that sanctions have an effect. Surely that's not so controversial? Also I don't have a particular problem with America. America behaves as the powerful have always behaved, throughout history. Britain, France, Spain, etc... back to antiquity.

COPEI is certainly not left-wing, neither was Caldera. And Venezuelan oil was nationalised not by Caldera, but by Perez, his successor. Perez was probably centre-left? Certainly not a communist. And in any case, nationalisation of a country's primary industry is by no means incompatible with a capitalist framework. Just as a person who buys house insurance (which is obviously a form of socialised risk) shouldn't be hunted down by a McCarthyist mob and extradited to Russia.

The thread title is 'Enjoy communism'. The current situation in Venezuela is not a result of communism.
It is in large part a result of Maduro, and also of Chavez, yes... but not communism. It is also due in part to oil, sanctions, the US, previous administrations, etc. I don't see why this should be such an outrageous and controversial idea.

I should also point out, before someone alleges something to the contrary, that I personally am not a fan of communism. History demonstrates quite clearly that it is prone to corruption, and that it is unworkable. But I take issue with the popular belief that anything to the left of the hard-right libertarian laissez-faire ideal should be decried as communist.

This season is crazy. As soon as you think one team in the chasing pack is in superb form and will win to challenge the leaders... they lose.
Sevilla still had a big chance of winning the league. Now they still have a chance, but a much smaller one. Realistically, they have to win away at Real now.

By the end of 09 May, that match will have been played, as will Barca vs Atletico... perhaps the picture will become clearer.

I'm sorry, but this claim is utter nonsense. There are plenty of examples of application of the theory today. To take one: GPS. If this didn't account for relativistic time dilation, it simply wouldn't work. Also, if we ignored Einstein and stuck with Newton's notion of a privileged reference frame, if we said there was absolute space and absolute time, rather than them being relative, then how would electromagnetism exist? Field changes would be propagated instantaneously. It's absurd. Newton was a genius, but a genius from the 17th C. Things have moved on somewhat since then. The idea of an absolute reference frame is an anachronism. Science advances, and understanding advances because of this.

The question of why relativity is a 'theory' is a little more complex. I have no desire to get into a discussion with you on scientific terminology. The important point here is that relativity - unlike, say, religion - is falsifiable. Experiments can be performed where if the results went a certain way, it would disprove relativity. And despite many attempts to do so, relativity has not been falsified. Experimental evidence demonstrates that it reflects reality extremely accurately.

The fundamental problem is oil. The huge abundance of oil in Venezuela is both its blessing and its curse. If a country has one overwhelming source of wealth, then naturally it focuses on that to the exclusion of everything else. The endemic poverty in Venezuela is I believe a direct consequence of its oil wealth. Its over-reliance on oil is an example of the economic phenomenon known as the 'Dutch Disease'. For example, Venezuela produces only 30% of its own food supply.

_{https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/dutch-disease/}

In the '70s, when oil prices were high, the capitalist-run country was thriving.
In the '80s, oil prices dropped, and poverty hit hard. The country had bet everything on oil, and had no plan B to fall back on. There was unrest. Capitalism had apparently failed. People wanted change, and so...
In the '90s, they elected a socialist, Chavez, who would bring about a new, more equitable system of governance, end the inequality, and bring back wealth to the people.

I do believe that in general Chavez was well-intentioned, but he didn't manage Venezuela in a sustainable way. Maduro then inherited the problems of Chavez... problems which in large part Chavez inherited from the previous capitalist regime... which were due to the abundance of oil.

US involvement is part of the reason for the problems of Venezuela.
The current regime is part of the reason. Chavez is part of the reason. The capitalist regime preceding Chavez is part of the reason.
But beneath everything, oil is the cause.

Yes, agreed. I'm not sure who has the best car right now. Red Bull and Mercedes are certainly closely matched, and the advantage could well swing between them depending on the specifics of each track. I do hope it's not the case that Mercedes are improving their car race by race and will soon be the clear leader. We need tight competition between teams.

Exactly. It is largely irrelevant whether or not Bottas finishes ahead of Hamilton in qualifying... because you know that Hamilton will overtake him in the race every single time. I do feel for Bottas; he is a good driver... he's just nowhere near as good as his team-mate.

US sanctions certainly do have an effect. You only have to go as far from US soil as Cuba to see that this is the case. But yes, sanctions are at the milder end of the scale.

Sticking purely to Venezuela to remain on topic...

How about US involvement in the coup of 2002? Whatever the CIA was doing behind the scenes, and however much they deny involvement, their protestations are unconvincing.

_{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt#US_role_and_alleged_involvement}

Also, is it really entirely coincidental that Venezeula has the world's largest oil reserves? The US does have some history of 'interest' in countries where they can steal the oil... consider for example the 600,000 violent deaths in Iraq following the 2003 invasion.

... but I agree that this is only one aspect. Much of the fault for the current situation in Venezuela lies with Maduro, with corruption and mismanagement. Also I would absolutely agree that extreme leftist regimes are intrinsically more susceptible to corruption and authoritarianism. I'm not disputing any of this, all I'm saying is that Venezuela starts from a profound disadvantage because a) it has a leftist leader, and b) it has oil. To suggest the US has had no effect on instability in the country is I think disingenuous.

Certainly the government has to shoulder plenty of the blame. But we must also consider that to some degree the misfortune of the population is due to US intervention over the last few years. History teaches us that any leftist leader in Central or South America is simply beyond the pale, and must be dealt with, whether that's crippled by sanctions, or quite brazenly ousted by force... as we saw with 9/11.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change_in_Latin_America

What we really need, given that Mercedes and Red Bull are so closely matched, is for Bottas and Perez to step it up a bit. Max vs Lewis at the front is better than just Lewis at the front, it adds some competition. But if we had both Red Bulls and both Mercs up there, vying for position, undercutting each other and forcing split strategies, it would be more interesting.

I really hope the 2022 changes have the desired effect of bringing the pack closer together and allowing more overtaking.

I think the Mercedes was slightly better, yes. Hamilton certainly looked faster on the hards, although Bottas couldn't get close to Max.

The story of the race was basically:
1. Slow reactions from Hamilton at the SC restart; Verstappen overtook for 2nd.
2. Mistake by Verstappen (slide) which let Hamilton overtake for 2nd.

Anything else, Bottas, Perez etc, is largely irrelevant.

Not really 'of course' though, surely? Mercedes did look to have a slightly faster car this time around, but it's the first time this season, and the gap was very narrow. Max was fairly close for the whole race. The way it's going, it looks like who has the best car might go back and forth between Mercedes and Red Bull depending on the specific demands of each track.

I understand your point, and yes the picture might be clearer if we were able to differentiate between two groups who are the same in age, comorbidities, general fitness etc, and differed only in vit D level. That would be ideal, and hopefully we will see studies where this is the case.

What this particular study shows is that people with high vit D tend to: be younger, have fewer comorbidities, have a vastly lower death rate, and be more active.

Of course it is difficult to disentangle the variables from one another. But the point is that if if age by itself can be considered a risk factor, then so can vit D level by itself. Whether that is simply as a proxy for age is a different question... as is the question of whether vulnerability due to age is simply a proxy for vit D.

It may be too late, once I get involved


https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-22
4. Grant WB, Lahore H, McDonnell SL, et al. Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths. Nutrients 2020;12(4):E988. doi: 10.3390/nu12040988
5. Annweiler C, Cao Z, Wu Y, et al. Counter-regulatory 'Renin-Angiotensin' System-based Candidate Drugs to Treat COVID-19 Diseases in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Infect Disord Drug Targets 2020 doi: 10.2174/1871526520666200518073329

It does appear that the data are increasingly suggesting that vitamin D supplementation vs Covid is a good idea. Interestingly, point 5 in that paper appears to contradict the idea raised in a previous thread about ACE2. But I am not a medical professional, and my understanding of the processes involved is rudimentary.

The best and most comprehensive paper I've found is this one: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276229/


It is firmly established that older age groups suffer worse outcomes from Covid. Is this linked to reduced vitamin D synthesis with age?

I've found a study (linked to from the paper above) that has interesting results. My bold. We need more studies, we need more data, but a pattern does appear to be emerging:

Yes, but exceeding the track limits gave him an advantage, which helped him to get such a low time.
Ultimately it was a weird Q3 session, with no-one able to get anywhere near the time Hamilton had set in the prior session. A gusting wind and a track surface like an ice rink may have made the qualifying times a little unrepresentative.

Yes, as always the start is important. If Mercedes can hold P1 and P2 for the first few laps until things settle down, they might have a big strategic advantage when it comes to the pit stops... another factor in this could be whether or not Perez is able to keep up with the front three, or whether Verstappen will be left alone vs the Mercedes cars.

Yes. The Atletico vs Barca match next weekend could prove crucial in the fight for the title. But it's worth noting that this is a four team fight, and the other big match in that round of fixtures is Real Madrid vs Sevilla.
Any of these four could still win the title. A clearer picture may start to emerge after next weekend. It won't be over by then, but gaps may be starting to form.

Should be fine. I think the Bill Gates 5G chip kicks in instantly, so the car becomes self-driving.


Probably varies by country. In the UK, there is a lot of communication about potential side effects, and when I went for my vaccine I was notified which vaccine I was having and what the side effects might be, and also had to answer a series of questions to determine whether or not I was safe to receive it.

It's been a tight battle for those last 2 Champions League spots... but the gap is widening now, despite Leicester dropping points. West Ham and Liverpool may have a game in hand, but they're 6 and 7 points behind Chelsea, both with a worse goal difference, and both in quite poor form at the moment. To me, the Champions League spaces look almost settled now.

Probably different depending on circumstances.

J&J is single dose, which could be an advantage.
AZ is easily transportable as it doesn't require extreme refrigeration. Probably a good choice for countries or regions where this could be an issue.
Cost could be a factor for poorer countries; AZ is I think the cheapest.

... but then AFAIK Pfizer and Moderna are the most effective.

Reliability of the manufacturing process would also play a part. If you place an order for 50m with 2 companies, one company gives you 50m and the other company only gives you 20m... then the quantity trumps the minor quality differences.