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1401  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: August 15, 2021, 06:44:17 AM
Norwich 0:3 Liverpool fixture, Norwich played a relatively scattered football. They lacked coordination in the team as it is now and need a little more team work amongst themselves. What I saw today was just error after error. Never holding the ball quite alright nor giving accurate passes, creating the opportunity for Liverpool to strive. It's the beginning of the game so, there is still some time but, they must not bank on this and not have a good start.

This is an interesting result. It is obviously too early to draw conclusions, but does this suggest that Liverpool are back to their best? Newly promoted teams often start the season quite strongly... Watford and Brentford both won their opening game, but Norwich, who were by far the best team in the Championship last season, got picked apart with supreme ease. Is it Norwich weakness, or rather the strength of Liverpool making their opponents look bad?
1402  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Six people killed in mass shooting in Plymouth, England on: August 15, 2021, 06:32:30 AM
serious mental issues.

This is at the heart of it, yes. "Incels" may or may not be more likely to engage in violent behaviour, but when it's a sample size of one, we can't really say anything. If the gunman was wearing a blue shirt, it doesn't mean we should fear everyone in blue shirts.

Mental health here in the UK has been underfunded for years, a legacy of successive governments chipping away at provision until the service is not fit for purpose. I don't think this can be ignored in this instance. And the year and a half of lockdowns and social restrictions only exacerbates the situation:


Quote
Services are understaffed: Four in ten mental health trusts (41 per cent) have staffing levels well below established benchmarks.
People are not getting the help they need: There is huge variation in the numbers of people accessing crisis care services and one in five people (18 per cent) who came into contact with NHS services in crisis was not assessed at all. Only 14 per cent of people said that, overall, they felt they had all the support they needed when in crisis.
People aren’t assessed quickly enough: Only a third (33 per cent) of respondents who came into contact with NHS services when in crisis were assessed within four hours, as recommended by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE).
Services are not available all the time: One in ten (10 per cent) crisis teams still fails to operate 24-hour, seven-day-a-week services, despite recommendations by NICE.
People cannot contact crisis teams directly: Only half (56 per cent) of crisis teams accept self-referrals from known services users and just one in five (21 per cent) from service users that aren’t already known to them. This is despite NICE guidance that crisis teams should offer self-referral as an alternative to emergency services.
There is a lack of respect and dignity: Less than a third (29 per cent) said they felt all staff treated them with respect and dignity.
https://www.mind.org.uk/news-campaigns/news/mental-health-crisis-care-services-under-resourced-understaffed-and-overstretched/

Quote
'Today's new data from the Office for National Statistics, which reveals that depression rates have doubled since the COVID-19 pandemic began, forewarns of a growing mental health crisis in the UK. Particularly concerning is that those in more precarious economic positions or burdened by existing inequalities – young people, women, clinically vulnerable adults, disabled people and those living in the most deprived areas of England – have been disproportionately affected. This suggests that inequalities in our society have worsened as a result of the pandemic. Despite increasing rates of depression, diagnoses by GPs fell by almost a quarter, suggesting access to mental health care is in decline. Our COVID-19 impact inquiry has found that reduced access to care will have long-term implications on mental health and put even greater pressure on health services.

'These worrying findings show how important it is for government to rapidly address the vast consequences of the pandemic, to protect the long-term impacts on the nation's health.'
https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/news/latest-data-highlights-a-growing-mental-health-crisis-in-the-uk

1403  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Does power really corrupt? on: August 14, 2021, 12:27:30 PM
On the one hand I think you are at least partly right, but I also think about the saying: "opportunity makes a thief" which, I think is also at least partly true

Yes, certainly, it's both, you're right. We are to an extent shaped by our experiences. For example someone who has risen to a position of absolute power might see everyone else as inferior to him*, including those people whom, prior to his reaching that position, he viewed as colleagues and equals. It's both nature and nurture, it's not 'either/or', it's 'and'.



*it always seems to be a 'him'.
1404  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Does power really corrupt? on: August 14, 2021, 07:29:42 AM
The question is complicated somewhat by the fact that often those who seek power, particularly absolute power, are those who would use it selfishly for their own ends anyway. If someone wants to become an authoritarian dictator, succeeds in becoming one, and then starts to act in a corrupt fashion, we can't really suggest that it was attaining the power that made them behave that way... they were already that sort of person.
1405  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Americans will burn in hell for eternity on: August 13, 2021, 07:25:29 PM
There are people who believe in Jesus all over the world, including the US. Their bargain with Satan has been nullified, and they are forgiven, and will not be condemned, if they trust in Jesus salvation.
The problem with this* is what happens to the people who haven't heard of Jesus, and are damned for eternity through no fault of their own? Seems quite harsh. I thought God had ditched the Old Testament psychopath thing when he pivoted to Jesus.


free will
I don't think you can use the phrase 'free will' when discussing religion. One of religion's principle features is an utter abdication of personal responsibility.





*Well, one of the problems. There are loads of them...
1406  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is the Best type of Government? on: August 13, 2021, 06:42:59 PM
By the way, I'm guessing @theymos won't be stopping by to comment, but I'd be interested to know what he thinks about it. In another thread he said:

I'm an ancap, so I'd work toward ending the state entirely.

I think it's very nice in theory, but I'm not so clear that government needs to be eliminated completely. I believe in smaller government and that in general the private sector tends to do things more efficiently than the public but I don't see how without government we could control the abuses of large corporations, cartels, etc.

For once we are in agreement (apart from the 'very nice in theory' bit). I think I've criticised anarcho-capitalism fairly recently in another thread. The worst system has to be the one that is most easily exploited, and has nothing to prevent excesses and abuses. It sounds nightmarish. I've had a read of that post, and theymos also says:

Anarcho-capitalism probably can't be achieved unless/until at least 20% of the population has some understanding of it and believes that it could work and be an improvement. So it's not happening anytime soon.

He's a lot more intelligent than I am, so I'm willing to accept that I may be missing something. But superficially at least, ancap appears to me to be a terrible idea, premised on the belief that there is zero exploitation within the current system, and any unfairness or abuse that does exist is caused solely by government intervention.

--

I believe in smaller government and that in general the private sector tends to do things more efficiently than the public
I'd probably agree with this. The private sector is generally more efficient. The issue is who benefits. Rail travel in my country might be a decent example. It used to be run by the government, it wasn't hugely efficient, but prices were cheap. A couple of decades ago it was privatised, and the government started handing out regional franchises to private operators. Effectively a series of local monopolies. Companies are interested primarily in making money for themselves. For companies beholden to shareholders, it's a duty. So, inexorably and inevitably, prices increased and standards slipped. The companies offer the minimum viable service they can get away with, whilst charging exorbitant fees and creaming off all the profit. When a government privatises something and puts something out to tender, the aim is to get rid of the cost, so they invariably accept the lowest offer rather than the offer that is best for the customer. The rail situation here is now much worse than before. I appreciate that privatising infrastructure and utilities is quite different to private companies operating in direct competition with one another... but the ultimate motivation is always self-enrichment. No company works for the benefit of the customer; no company puts money into improving the customer experience unless they believe this will net them an increase in profits.

But I'm certainly not against companies. I'd agree with you that part of the duty of a government is to rein in some of their more egregious behaviour.
1407  Other / Politics & Society / Re: “Breakthrough” - cases of Covid-19 caused by the VACCINATED as Joe Rogan... on: August 12, 2021, 08:04:00 PM
I've seen data in certain areas showing that more than 3/4's of hospital visits relating to Covid are from vaccinated individuals.

Even if this is the case, it's difficult to determine any meaningful conclusion. Obviously it depends on what proportion of the population have been vaccinated, and which people have been vaccinated. If for example 80% of people have been vaccinated, you'd expect vaccinated people to still make up a sizeable proportion of hospital patients. And what if only 20% of people have been vaccinated, but because vaccinations start with the most vulnerable people, this 20% is overwhelmingly old, infirm and immunocompromised people... in this case, even though it's only 20%, and even if the vaccines are highly (but not 100%) effective, you'd still expect the majority of patients to have been vaccinated, just because of who they are.

I'm not forming any conclusion here, just recommending caution in attributing reasons for a thing when there are other factors to consider.
1408  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is the Best type of Government? on: August 12, 2021, 06:04:28 PM
Capitalism works for the benefit of the elite, but democracy works for the general public, and acts as a brake on the excesses of the wealthy. Certainly it doesn't work perfectly in practice, but at least it works to an extent... which is better than any other form of government.
Capitalism is the system that has made it possible for almost 8 billion people to live on earth today and for hunger, which has been a constant throughout human history, to be drastically reduced.
Capitalist democracy is what works better than anything else, not pure capitalism. Capitalism without democracy would lack accountability. We'd be back to slave ownership. It's the accountability that's the important thing. Freedom within a system that acts to inhibit excessive abuses of that freedom. The question of where to set those limits is something for another thread.


Capitalism is the natural system of economic relations without war.
I'd agree that globalisation, despite all its faults, is probably the single biggest factor in the absence of world wars since 1945. Having your economy entangled with the economies of every other major power is a compelling motivator for peace.
1409  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Covid does NOT exist as a novel, isolated virus … proven in COURT by Canadian on: August 12, 2021, 04:20:00 PM
The liers and cheads are so easy to catch. embarrassing it just shows the foul character of yours

Yes, how dare I go to the link you supplied and post actual data from there.  Roll Eyes
Perhaps I should have checked first, and only posted stuff that matched a baseless, preconceived notion that the vaccine is ineffective or worse... then we could have disregarded all those pesky facts that don't say what you want them to say.

But let's look at the source data from your archive link: https://web.archive.org/web/20210812003702/https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario


1410  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Americans will burn in hell for eternity on: August 12, 2021, 04:11:37 PM
The people of the U.S. have struck a bargain with Satan where a special area in hell has been reserved just for them.
Yeah, but that was 2016. Things have moved on a bit since then.
1411  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Covid does NOT exist as a novel, isolated virus … proven in COURT by Canadian on: August 12, 2021, 04:04:25 PM
From government of Ontario website. Zero unvaccinated patients in the ICU and 7 partially 5 fully vaccinated.
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
So much for the claim vaccine to lessen symptoms

If by zero you mean 44, then that's accurate.  Roll Eyes
From your link:


https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations

But even if it were zero, it wouldn't be too surprising... it depends on the vaccination level, particularly among the most vulnerable, who were those vaccinated first.
Think about it. If the vaccination rate hit 100% then 100% of those in ICU would have been vaccinated... it's just that there might be 10 people in there, rather than 1000 if the vaccination rate were 0%. If you divest data of context, then some meaning is lost.
1412  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Most important person alive? on: August 12, 2021, 03:54:25 PM
I'd say Xi Jinping. US presidents don't have the same level of influence within their own nation as Xi does in China, and are limited to (at most) 8 years in charge. Xi's term doesn't end until he does.

I don't think Elon Musk is very important. He's certainly wealthy and successful, but he wouldn't be anywhere near the top of the list.


We need to get more carbon into the atmosphere to help plants grow stronger when they breathe it in.
Don't be silly. We've discussed this before. That's a ludicrous oversimplification of how the science works.
1413  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The KRAKEN Rises !!! on: August 12, 2021, 03:45:30 PM
The internet just broke

I'm not clicking the link, but is this those Kim Cardassian photos again? She's not even a real Cardassian. She looks nothing like Gul Dukat.
But I'll grant that Dukat looks somewhat convincing as a humanoid manifestation of this non-existent Kraken thing.
1414  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is the Best type of Government? on: August 12, 2021, 03:42:15 PM
I've always thought that the best type of government is one that allows itself to be challenged. Most of us live in capitalist democracies, and of course the phrase is an oxymoron, but that's what makes it valuable. Capitalism works for the benefit of the elite, but democracy works for the general public, and acts as a brake on the excesses of the wealthy. Certainly it doesn't work perfectly in practice, but at least it works to an extent... which is better than any other form of government.
1415  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: August 10, 2021, 11:04:13 AM
City offer 130 million and Bernardo Silva as a Harry Kane trade-in option. This offer has gone insane I guess, I'm just surprised how special is Harry Kane?

I think the problem is that Man City have become so strong, that the only way they can improve is to buy the best players in the world.

If you want a good player, you have to pay a reasonably high price.
If you want a very good player, maybe one of the best 10 or 20 in his position in the world, they you have to pay a very high price.
If you want a world-class player, one of the best few in his position, then you have to pay something crazy... just because there are so few players available at this standard.
1416  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do poker and sports betting skills correlate? on: August 10, 2021, 10:49:40 AM
I guess what they are similar in is the combination of mathematics with intuition.

But I see clear differences. For example, in poker there are times when you know 100% that you have the winning hand. Other times you know 99%, like when a very passive player reraises you (in this case you know he has the winning hand). I don't think you have those percentages in sports betting. Then, the example you give of 30% I suppose it is similar to when in poker you have the odds to chase a flush or a straight.

On the other hand, the bookmakers give odds for sport betting calculating also, you are calculating against the house and I see only a small margin of winning there. In poker if you want to win money you have to sit at tables where you know there are worse players than you. There I think there is more margin than your odds calculation vs the house odds calculation.

Of course neither activity is like casino games where you know they are inexorably EV- in the long run, even though you may have favorable results in the short run.

Yes, there are certainly differences as well as similarities. I was just trying to point out that the ability to make accurate mathematical assessments is invaluable in both poker and sports betting, and is the backbone of a successful strategy.

You are right that in sports betting you are often calculating against the house... but not always. There are some online betting platforms where the odds change considerably depending on how other platform users bet... which makes it a little more like poker.

But I'll defer to someone who has the word "Poker" as part of their user name* - I suspect you are more knowledgeable than me in this area!




*I'm still waiting for someone to defer to me on the subject of Anglo-Saxon history, but it's not come up in any of the threads yet Smiley
1417  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Polio on: August 10, 2021, 10:39:05 AM
The most logical thing to think about is this "if the polio is not caused by the virus, then the vaccines will be ineffective... But the vaccines had been effectve for a time now and eradicated the polio... sooooooooo"

I think he's starting from the premise that all vaccines are ineffective. He's hoping to prove that vaccines have never been effective in the past, therefore the Covid vaccine is useless, too.
However... the proof has failed quite dramatically on his first try, Polio. Perhaps next he'll fail to prove why the smallpox vaccine is ineffective. Or he might go even bigger, and fail to prove that life expectancy hasn't increased dramatically around the world since the advent of modern medicine. Let's wait and see.
1418  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Post your favorite Biden/Harris Memes here on: August 10, 2021, 10:27:34 AM
Is Joe Biden still creepy?

Not compared to Trump, no. Biden is more of a lovable rogue. People often misinterpret his actions. Like when he fell over three times on the steps trying to board Air Force One... it wasn't evidence of infirmity, merely standard Biden slapstick antics. He loves messing around with planes...




Quote
White House Press Flight Delayed After Biden Gets Into Plane’s Engine

WASHINGTON—Calling the incident a minor hiccup and saying the European trip would continue as planned, the White House was reportedly forced to delay a press flight Wednesday after President Joe Biden got into the plane’s engine. “As soon as we remove the president from the turbine, we should be able to proceed as scheduled,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters, adding that an auxiliary power unit had been rendered inoperable after the commander-in-chief crawled into a turbine looking for a snack he dropped. “Unfortunately, the president got pretty well wedged in there, so rescue crews have spent a few hours already trying to get him out. He got pretty startled, naturally, and crawled further in. Fortunately we’ve coaxed him closer to leaving the engine, and once we repair the wires he chewed, the diplomatic trip should hopefully continue without incident.” At press time, the flight had been delayed again on the runway after the president had somehow gotten back into the engine.
1419  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 💰 Summer Tokyo 2020 💰 Discussion and bet thread 💰 Summer Game 💰 on: August 10, 2021, 10:14:32 AM
will be interesting to see, what will be a situation in three years, will there be Covid or restictions at all? last year, when the games where postponed, it seemed that this year will be different and with audience, but obviously Covid is here to stay for at least one year more, and maybe entirely to 2024 and Paris games?

I think there will be some restrictions, because it's a global event and involves competitors from almost every nation.

Whilst France and the rest of Europe, and many other countries such as the US will likely be highly vaccinated and have achieved effective herd immunity by that time, probably there will still be many countries where vaccination is still ongoing, and where new vaccine-resistant variants are arising.

... but I'm confident that whilst it will still be around in 2024, it won't be anywhere near as much of an issue as it is now.
1420  Other / Politics & Society / Re: My body, my choice is the new : just do it ! on: August 09, 2021, 06:07:15 PM
yes it does

if the injections works at intended (protect you, fully, like any real vaccine) there is no need for a pass as your are protected and risk free
if the injection doesn't work, same, no need for a pass.
aka if you are injected and still transmitting aka not blocking the spread, the pass is useless but to identify you once the side effects really kick in (according to estimate 3 years after injection in humans, personnally waiting for at least 7 generations to be safe and secure).

No. Your assertion is only valid if everyone has been vaccinated. In the real world, some people have been vaccinated and some haven't. If the vaccine is effective, then the pass can be used to prove that someone is 'safe'. Without the pass, there is no proof.
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