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1141  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The Guy who broke the system! on: October 11, 2021, 02:45:13 PM

Thanks, that was hilarious!
My favourite part was the particularly strong opening, up to the 20 second mark, where he was grappling with the complex question of his own age, before coming out with "50-something, best guess".
I got through the bit where he was struggling and failing to understand the concept of magnetism. If his whole point was 1+1≠2, he could have just used vectors... but even that is probably beyond him.
Unfortunately I stopped watching at 3:16, when he was trying to convince the audience that a hydrogen atom contains a neutron.

I can't believe this video has 23k views!
1142  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: October 11, 2021, 02:26:26 PM
Murray is not having enough matches for odd on him to be good

Playing a lot of matches in quick succession does seem to be his biggest problem. This might be mitigated a bit because these aren't best-of-5 slam matches, but still, with each round it will get tougher for him, regardless of opponent.
1143  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: October 11, 2021, 02:24:10 PM
One thing that did surprise me was the qualifying. I didn't expect both Mercs to be ahead of Verstappen. And even though he started from pole, I certainly didn't expect Bottas to be able to hold off Verstappen for the full race. I didn't manage to watch the race, I just followed bits of it on text, but it was surprising. Is this supposed to be a strong Merc track? If so, I wasn't aware. If not, then does it mean Mercedes are now looking stronger for the remaining races this season? Either way it seems fairly likely the championship won't be decided until the very last race.
1144  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The vaccination issue is not bipolar on: October 11, 2021, 01:18:44 PM
a 95%-ish number would produce a workable estimator for order-of-mag work.  And, due to the figures you snipped, even if you are going to take corp/gov estimates at face value, the number changes from 0.00002 to 0.0002 and the arg remains the same.
There is still the fact that millions more people than normal have been dying of something during the last 18 months, with a spike coinciding with the start of the pandemic.



I live in a certain English speaking SE Asian country, and the tricks they pull to pad the numbers are completely shameless.
I can't really comment on the specifics of a country I know nothing about. But these data are coming out of almost every country, with the same pattern again and again. Quite apart from anything else, I doubt that politicians are sufficiently competent to devise and maintain a cover-up on this scale, particularly one involving countries that are mutual antagonists.



the people implementing and funding the plandemic in order to usher in the Great Reset or 'Fourth Industrial Revolution.'  It's the same people who got their positions of unimaginable wealth and power during the last few monetary systems, and they want to hold onto what they got, or preferably use the monetary system collapse to get a lot more.  Classic 'order out of chaos'. 
I agree that the system is set up to favour the established elite, and to enrich and empower them at the expense of everyone else. They would have no reason to sabotage a system that is working perfectly for them, that has been fine-tuned over centuries. If a system is stable, established, and working exactly as you want it to, then you have no incentive to sabotage it by gambling that you can replace it with something even better. And even if a couple of people wanted to risk that, could you really imagine them obtaining a consensus, swearing everyone to secrecy, and this plan actually all holding together?
1145  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The vaccination issue is not bipolar on: October 11, 2021, 11:21:35 AM
Something like 96% of the U.S. figures died of something like massive head trauma from a motorcycle accident, or a corpse from the hospice system which was tested positive in after-death PCR tests.
I appreciate that, unlike some anti-vaxxers, you do attempt to present a decent argument. However the problem here is that you are making a statement that is entirely unsupported by evidence. Do you just pull '96%' out of the air?
Regardless of official reason for death, it is quite clear from data made available from around the world (not just a single source), that there has been a huge increase in deaths from any reason recently, and that this coincides exactly with the Covid pandemic. We can't attribute this to motorcycles or to something strange happening in hospices.


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?tab=table
1146  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Where did all the shills go? on: October 11, 2021, 09:32:28 AM
boring thread.

i have better things to do with my life
no need to say anymore.



I understand completely. I find it tiring more than anything else. They won't accept anything that involves actual data or even coherent rational thought.
1147  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Where did all the shills go? on: October 11, 2021, 09:17:21 AM
Had to use the science of auto-correct to correct the word Civilization for you or is that an allegory to anarchy over perceived science?

No, it's simply you failing to understand that the world contains different countries, and different languages. And even the same language but with different spellings. But a lack of consideration of others is a characteristic of anti-vaxxers, so I'm not surprised. I am British. Here, it's civilisation.

Are you the same anti-vaxxer that tried to mock my English last time, in some garbled stream-of-consciousness diatribe, or was that someone else? Or are you the one who accused me of being 'fancy' because I used the word 'analogy'? Probably someone else. I appreciate that anti-vaxxers tend to resort to personal insults, because they have no other arguments.
1148  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The vaccination issue is not bipolar on: October 11, 2021, 08:51:58 AM
I want to say, that it is not true that generic immunity do not help for covid. The fact that some people died for covid doesn't mean that we should spend lots of money to vaccination for everybody, exactly like in the case of flu vaccines. There should be consideration of pros and cons.
Pro: 4.5 million people have died from Covid so far. A vaccine might be a good idea.



How can you know that science data is not fake? It happened lots of time in history, that science data was custom-made for political purpose. I worked ten years in public university, science is funded exclusively on the basis of nepotism. I don't want to say that the situation is everywhere the same, I just wondering, why politicians in our country still have to lie and scare, when they have clear science data to persuade people rationally.
We are not talking about an individual paper or data report here. There are huge, independent datasets from most countries in the world. And not just from governments, but also from universities and professional bodies. Do you really think this is all fake? Why would it be?



So you are going above the scope of restrictions. Don't you mind that these restrictions caused collapsed economy? Don't you feel little bit guilty that you participate to cropper bussiness of some people?
This question makes me angry. I'm unable to respond without detailing how I feel about anti-vaxxers and their behaviour, which would create a lot of tension in this thread, and likely end the discussion.



  • politicians abused whole covid situation to tighten their power over people;
  • politicians abused whole covid situation to steal public money;
Politicians will likely try to exploit any situation to their own advantage. Doesn't mean the underlying situation isn't real.



  • I don't think covid vaccine will help (much), just like in case of flu;
Which data are you basing this opinion on?



That is not TRUE. and it is documented in medical paper.
Well, that's conclusive evidence, thanks. I've changed my position entirely as a result of your devastatingly insightful and painstakingly detailed arguments.  Roll Eyes
1149  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: October 11, 2021, 08:34:17 AM
a good start for Andy Murray in Indian wells today, he beat the youngster Alcarez after losing the first set, this shows that he still has the spirits to win, I'll be on the lookup for in the next matche, he won't let go that easy as for now he will face Alexander Zverev which will be really interesting to bet on and watch, I think Murray can win a set and the odds would favor Zverev to win 2-0 I think so it's worth it.

I kept up with the Murray Alcarez score for the first set, I saw Murray race into an early lead, but then collapse a bit as he lost the set. I thought then it would be a straight sets win for Alcarez, so was surprised to see the final result. It's very difficult to know what to expect with Murray these days, and very difficult to bet on his matches. We all know he has the talent to beat almost every other player, it's just that the physical side is something we can't really predict.
1150  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: October 11, 2021, 08:07:01 AM
Considering that track was vet,race probably wasn't most exciting. We didn't even had safety car on track and all 20 drivers reached finnish. Very confident Bottas win - he deserves it was very needed for him - this year isn't easy for him.
Max didn't had any chance to win today, but Red Bull should be happy about final result - double podium and Verstappen is championship leader again. 5th place for Hamilton - not great, not terrible. But I think that with earlier pit stop he would have chance to finnish on higher place.

I think overall Hamilton has to be satisfied with the result. Going into the weekend, no-one really expected Bottas to win. And looking at the starting grid, I would have thought Verstappen would win, and the best Hamilton could hope for was second place, and so losing 7 points (25-18). As it was, the Bottas win was crucial for Hamilton, as it limited his loss to 8 (18-10)... which is almost the same as him coming second behind Verstappen.
1151  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The vaccination issue is not bipolar on: October 10, 2021, 11:56:34 AM
Many people died, but many people also hasn't any symptoms. Isn't it because of this general immunity?
This discussion point started on Jet Cash's assertion that vaccination was unnecessary. You are saying that some people have been exposed to Covid, and yet experienced no symptoms. Yes, agreed. You are also saying that many people have died from Covid. Yes, agreed. So why is vaccination unnecessary?



What is the data supporting pro-waxers arguments? Those data comes from people directly motivated by finance income. Is those data reliable? Lets say it directly: politicians lied to us lots of time, how can I trust to them? So pro-vaxxers arguments are based on faith, that politicians do not lie.
The vast collection of data from ourworldindata is available for download here: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data
The list of sources is available here: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

It is not a question of faith in politicians. I have zero faith in politicians, and I don't trust our government at all. My background and expertise is in science and data. I look at the data.



pro-waxxers (or generally pro-gov-restrictions people) contribute to these issues by obeying government.
I started working from home and taking distancing precautions whilst our government (UK) was still insisting Covid wouldn't be a problem. The data from Italy and Spain were clear, yet the fools in charge don't understand (or willfully misunderstand) the data.
Similarly I still wear a mask when I'm out, but our government have said they're no longer needed.
It is not a question of pro-vaxxers blindly trusting government.

Is your issue with the Covid vaccines in particular, or with the concept of vaccination in general? Historical data for smallpox and polio as two examples from many, are perfectly clear.
1152  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The vaccination issue is not bipolar on: October 10, 2021, 10:50:04 AM
Of course that natural immunity exists - there is general non-specific immunity, which is used against new viruses. If something like this wouldn't exists, every new virus will exterminate whole mankind.
General innate immunity doesn't make you invincible. Many people have died from Covid. The way to achieve immunity to Covid is either catch it, or take the vaccine. There isn't a third option.



Let your body get rid of the pathogens by not wearing a mask
There is no medical reason to not wear a mask.
Of course there are many reasons. I have some specific medical issues, which gets much worse in wet environment and wearing masks get it worse. Psychological problems exists too (these are medical issues too). Wearing mask for a long time is not natural, because people just had to breath...
I should have been clearer. I meant specifically in response to Jet Cash's argument that wearing a mask is counterproductive, and that no-one should wear masks. You are of course correct that sometimes people cannot wear masks for medical (including psychological) reasons.



I wrote a post to you in another topic, but you didn't answer. Why do you blame anti-waxers, but don't agree with contribution of pro-waxers to other issues conjuctive with covid restrictions?
Apologies, I either didn't see it, or else was too focused on responding to someone else. As for blaming anti-vaxxers, I have yet to see valid data to support their arguments, whereas there are mountains of data to refute them conclusively. Whilst Jet Cash is right that people are different, and certainly anti-vaxxers aren't all the same, many anti-vaxxer arguments are faith-based rather than fact-based. Their position is in direct opposition to all the evidence. I'm not sure what you mean in your second point "don't agree with contribution of pro-waxers to other issues conjuctive with covid restrictions" - please could you clarify?

1153  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The vaccination issue is not bipolar on: October 09, 2021, 10:38:56 AM
there are not just two positions - vaccination or vaccination opposition.
Agreed. Someone who sees things in shades of grey rather than black or white generally has a more considered perspective.


vaccination is not required if a person has recovered from a prior infection. It admits that natural immunity is as good, or better, than vaccination.
Yes, I don't think this is in dispute.


Covid is the first disease that is being promoted by governments in contradiction of this fact.
Well, not really. Your route to natural immunity is to catch the virus. If the virus can be fatal, it is preferable to take a safe, proven vaccine. Quite apart from the fact that if you catch the virus, you can spread it to others.


I genuinely believe that I have strong natural immunity
But if it's not proven, then it's simply belief, which may be flawed.


because of my lifestyle and age, I cannot afford to risk vaccination
It's not suitable for everyone. This is why there are screening questions. Even so, there is I suppose in theory a very small chance that you have an undiagnosed pre-existing condition, which means you're not suitable. In such instances the vaccine can cause problems... but it's highly likely that for such a person catching Covid would have caused more severe problems.


I believe that vaccines should be tested comprehensively, and the result made available for public scrutiny.
They have been, they are. It's understandable that the vaccines are released quickly given a global pandemic, but they have still completed the standard trials process, and data are available.


many of the vaccination failures may be the result of a failure to aspirate the syringe before pressing the plunger.
The people administering the vaccine must be properly trained, yes. Not least so that they accurately identify those who shouldn't take the vaccine.
1154  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [Plandemic Survey] I wonder how many of you have been vaccinated ? on: October 09, 2021, 10:04:55 AM
You can 'spell it out' until the cows some home, but your spelling out both false data and a highly incomplete/invalid interpretations.
You're better than the "what's an analogy?" guy, but what makes you believe that the data are false?


Vaxxed people have an equal or higher viral load [...] mumps vaccine failure scenario [...] mumps outbreaks in almost 100% vaccinated populations [...] Mumps is a nothingburger in terms of sickness. 
If we are broadening the discussion from the Covid vaccines to vaccination in general, then again the data are perfectly clear. You're not going to argue the point on something like polio, surely? As for mumps, yes, generally effects are mild, but not always... it can lead to sterility, meningitis, pancreatic problems, etc. Death rate in the US (are you in the US?) was very low before the vaccine... now, with the vaccine, it is zero. So vaccine good, yes? How about the effects of other vaccines?


https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination#progress-against-vaccine-preventable-diseases-in-the-us


Mumps is also an interesting failure in that with MMR, all three had to show 95% efficacy for licensure.  As the mumps component failed, Merck got increasingly desperate and tried every kind of lab trick to 'show' 95%.  Ultimately they just penciled in numbers in the lab books and some internal whistleblowers came forward.  Merck's trump card was a pocket full of politicians and regulators.  Julie Gerberding went straight from CDC director to VP of vaccines at Merck when she got done with her 'public service'.  Merck kept their highly valuable MMR franchise, and you, dear reader, have never heard of this little hic-up.
I suspect that some of our differences arise due to me living in a country where healthcare is provided free of charge. Companies are motivated by profit, yes. There is a revolving door between high political office and influential posts in business, yes, it's a huge problem, and I'm not disputing any of that. But at the same time, the effectiveness of vaccination as a general process is well understood, and the data on Covid are abundantly clear.

1155  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [Plandemic Survey] I wonder how many of you have been vaccinated ? on: October 09, 2021, 08:48:55 AM
you got fancy with "analogy" but the irony is you can't even "analyze" my point/topic, therefore you can't discuss.

the fact is.. you are just being evasive.

If the use of analogy is "fancy", then we've reached a new nadir. Reasoned human debate may no longer be possible. Shall we just throw faeces at one another?

I will spell it out. A thing can be effective without being 100% effective. No-one ever said that vaccines were 100% protective against infection. But they are, as the data indicate perfectly clearly, extremely protective against infection, particularly symptomatic infection. If you have been vaccinated, you are less likely to catch Covid. If you have been vaccinated and do catch Covid, then you are less likely to cough it out over someone else. Vaccination reduces the spread. This is not complicated.

Global herd immunity is unlikely. Effective herd immunity within a population may be achievable, if everyone is vaccinated (or has caught the virus). People who have not had the virus, who refuse the vaccine when offered, are actively working against achieving herd immunity.
1156  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Where did all the shills go? on: October 09, 2021, 08:36:28 AM
knowledge (science effectively) [...] science (aka knowledge)
As you believe there is no link between science and knowledge, how do you obtain knowledge? The device on which you typed your post... was that created by science or religion/magic?
Scientific knowledge is the thing that underpins modern civilisation. Science is knowledge of the world, derived from observation and experimentation. Science is everywhere in everyday life. If you don't like it, find a cave to live in. But if you plan on hunting wild animals, don't use a knife or even stone tools, because that's science. Maybe just forage for berries instead, but just pick them at random, don't rely on a scientific understanding of which ones are poisonous.
1157  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The vaccination issue is not bipolar on: October 09, 2021, 06:30:14 AM
Open VAERS

It's been pointed out to you many times, by me and by others, that this is a scam website. But here we go again...

Quote
OpenVAERS is a U.S.-focused site that was created in January this year. The project used to live on thearkivist.net, which was created in September 2019, until its owner created a separate website dedicated to the misrepresentation of COVID-19 vaccine data. OpenVAERS repackages raw federal data from the official VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System) website to push an anti-vax agenda. The site misrepresents data collected on VAERS and publishes it in a way that has very likely made a significant contribution to vaccine hesitancy. The website publishes unverified data and statistics on how many people have allegedly died or suffered injuries after getting their COVID-19 vaccine.
https://www.logically.ai/articles/california-woman-anti-vax-site-openvaers

Even if you do at some point manage to find a site that reports impartially on VAERS data, it's hardly evidence of anything, given that VAERS is a self-reporting system. I've explained this to you before, too. But as we're regurgitating previous conversations that you may have "forgotten", let's have that quote again:

Quote
VAERS accepts reports of adverse events and reactions that occur following vaccination. Healthcare providers, vaccine manufacturers, and the public can submit reports to the system. While very important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness. The reports may contain information that is incomplete, inaccurate, coincidental, or unverifiable. In large part, reports to VAERS are voluntary, which means they are subject to biases. This creates specific limitations on how the data can be used scientifically. Data from VAERS reports should always be interpreted with these limitations in mind.

The strengths of VAERS are that it is national in scope and can quickly provide an early warning of a safety problem with a vaccine. As part of CDC and FDA’s multi-system approach to post-licensure vaccine safety monitoring, VAERS is designed to rapidly detect unusual or unexpected patterns of adverse events, also known as “safety signals.” If a safety signal is found in VAERS, further studies can be done in safety systems such as the CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) or the Clinical Immunization Safety Assessment (CISA) project. These systems do not have the same scientific limitations as VAERS, and can better assess health risks and possible connections between adverse events and a vaccine.
https://vaers.hhs.gov/data.html
1158  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Where did all the shills go? on: October 09, 2021, 06:12:14 AM
As for anti-vaccine i don't know anyone. The forum still does have some pro freedom (financial, medical..) members. generally known as Bitcoiners.

If you're pro-freedom, you should be glad that you don't know any anti-vaxxers. You'd get really angry with them. Their refusal to take the vaccine keeps the R value high, keeping the virus in circulation, and ensuring we continue to need restrictions such as masks, social distancing and lockdowns.
1159  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: October 09, 2021, 05:21:44 AM
Ive had a lot of bets on Tennis over the last couple of days and had 0.01mbtc free
to play with, I put that on Raducanu to win. I wasnt fully convinced she would
be capable, so it was a token amount, Luckily I didnt have more to play with as
she lost 6-2, 6-4 with a very lack lustre performance.

Next up is Fernandez in a couple of minutes, I have a bigger wager on her to win.

I'm kind of glad for Raducanu that she lost here. Of course being British I wanted her to win, and I want her to win all of her matches. But she is young and inexperienced, and the thing is after the US Open there is now an expectation on her that she will win and win and win, and be unstoppable. Of course that is unrealistic, and she has to lose sometime. I think it will be good for her in the long run that she lost in her first match here, it helps to dampen the unreasonable expectation somewhat, and it will be a good lesson for her to learn. I'm sure the reason she lost was the mental side rather than the physical, and she will be back to winning matches soon enough... but she is too young to win every time. Same probably goes for Fernandez, although to a slightly lesser extent.
1160  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: October 08, 2021, 06:29:16 AM
To be honest, I personally like the variety of players winning the tournaments. Because while Serena was on peak form, it was obvious that she would win every tournament she plays, people knew that before even the tournament started. But now we are seeing some great talented players like Emma Raducanu and Leylah Fernandez who are young but full of talent. What needs to be made sure is that these young players are nurtured well enough so that they dont disappear one day, other than they can be some great players in the future.

Yes, the variety definitely keeps it interesting. I have taken more interest in the women's game than the men's recently, partly because you know even before a men's tournament starts that Djokovic will win it. The US Open final where he lost was an anomaly, and although Medvedev did well, I do think that Djokovic beat himself there with the pressure of that final match to take a calendar grand slam.
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