Net Long (hoping it will rise right now) - 86 (65.6%)
2/3 of voters are long, So not enough participants left for reversal. Unless mega whale comes to rescue, Pain shall continue..
Yeah you're right, with 86 people in the world holding, and only 21 people in the world waiting to buy some more, there's no chance of a reversal.... bitcoin is clearly doomed. /s   |
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Yes, but the real question is not why are they still buying BTC, but how are they getting fresh fiat deposits in?
When the next bubble happens, it would be assumed that if all bank accounts are closed for Yuan deposits then they can't run up buying high volumes of coins in China. This would take millions of $$ worth of Yuan deposits to do, not something easily done with either vouchers or even cash deposits. But I have a weird suspicion that in the next run up we won't be seeing a slow down of high volume purchasing in China... business as usual.... which again begs the question how? Unless it was all just a bunch of FUD to begin with? Or perhaps deposits will still be allowed "under the table" for a select privileged few?
Why does it have to be "fresh fiat"? All the money that was put into the Chinese exchanges during the Nov/Dec runup didn't just disappear during the crash, it's entirely possible a good percentage of it is sitting on the sidelines. We have no idea what the fiat side of the Chinese exchanges looks like, and one should be cautious in assuming that there isn't a lot of cash just sitting in trading accounts. You're assuming that it will be the same number of Chinese bitcoiner accounts in the next run up, i.e., zero growth of their user base. I'm hoping it'll be 3x more than last time, so therefore fresh fiat that wasn't there before will need to enter the market. |
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Yeah, possibly positive sign. So queue the coming Chinese FUD first, right? LOL |
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Yes, but the real question is not why are they still buying BTC, but how are they getting fresh fiat deposits in?
When the next bubble happens, it would be assumed that if all bank accounts are closed for Yuan deposits then they can't run up buying high volumes of coins in China. This would take millions of $$ worth of Yuan deposits to do, not something easily done with either vouchers or even cash deposits. But I have a weird suspicion that in the next run up we won't be seeing a slow down of high volume purchasing in China... business as usual.... which again begs the question how? Unless it was all just a bunch of FUD to begin with? Or perhaps deposits will still be allowed "under the table" for a select privileged few?
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they never said exchanges are legal to operate.
So they said that bitcoin is legal to own, but a) You can't buy any with a bank account and b) exchanges are not legal to operate. WTF?? Seriously? Does. Not. Compute. PBOC: "You can legally purchase and own bananas, just not purchase them with your bank account. Or from a store. Or from a produce stand. Or from anywhere, actually." |
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Ok, here's my 2c (yeah I know, worthless).
I'm imagining that at some point in the near future, possibly even this year, the Chinese Exchange operators KNOW there is going to be another BTC bubble. In fact, they are terrified that there indeed will be. And when it happens, they know that because of their PBOC restrictions it won't necessarily be the Chinese traders initiating it, because all bank accounts will be cut off. If the majority of bitcoin eventually gets into the hands of everyone *except* the Chinese, then a speculative bubble in future won't be their fault, i.e., necessarily caused by them. BUT, the Chinese Gov't and PBOC will assume that it *was* the fault of the Chinese Exchanges, and they will place the blame at the feet of the Chinese Exchange operators for not some how "stopping it from getting out of control". Such is the arrogance of the Chinese Gov't to think that their people control the majority of the bitcoin in the world, when that may not necessarily be true.
My guess is the net result will be the Chinese Gov't and PBOC exacting even more extreme measures, perhaps even shutting down Chinese exchanges completely. But that would be in direction violation of their December 5th decree that bitcoin is not illegal to own/purchase and that Chinese Exchanges are able to legally operate.
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Looks to me like no coins are moving at all It appears the last time it crossed below 2M days destroyed was early July 2013, the bottom of the April bubble. Hmmm.. hrmrmrmrm |
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I'm afraid that usefulness is still lagging far behind current adoption. We can talk all we want about the current merchant interest level, institutional interest level, etc. But the fact remains that the "masses" still perceive bitcoin to have limited current usefulness to them. Other than a few online shops, the places to spend bitcoin are still limited, especially to where the masses go to shop (whether online or brick-and-mortar). The masses want to be able to make purchases at Amazon, Target, Walmart, IKEA, Starbucks, and their local grocery or store du jour. They want to buy gas with it, pay their electricity and phone bill with it. They want to back their 401ks with it, pay their rent with it, buy a car with it.
Hell, after all these years I still can't even find a coffee shop or bar in my town that accepts bitcoin. Not one.
Until merchants adopt bitcoin en masse, I'm afraid the "masses" are still going to sit on the sidelines and wait.
We've still got a long way to go...
 Seriously, that's how I used to feel, and it's the reason I didn't invest earlier. But you don't get the big picture. People are using bitcoin for a store of wealth -- much like digital gold -- hence the Winklevoss twins assertion of "gold 2.0". The utility of bitcoin in terms of retail growth is nice, but in the whole scheme of things, doesn't really mean shit. Bitcoin's "killer app" is its ease of entry into the investment world. Anyone with a bank account can sign up for an exchange account and be trading within a couple hours. I would wager that 9 out of 10 people here have very little investment experience outside of bitcoin. Actually you misunderstand me, I get that picture very well. I'm HEAVILY invested in bitcoin currently as a store of value, so much so that a 10x increase and I could retire comfortably...FOREVER. And I'm a permabull. But that does not negate any of those realities I pointed out in my post about the masses using bitcoin as a daily currency. I would wager that if bitcoin's ONLY use in life is a store of value, it will have failed in the eyes of many. |
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Oh, that's interesting. Rather than rushing ahead of ourselves, we need to let the capabilities mature before pressing the message out. Then we shouldn't be watching the exchange rate minute-by-minute. That's different than I was thinking. Thank you. Hmm, what is our message until then? When will we know it is time to unveil Bitcoin again for the masses? Or are the capabilities going to come along one at a time in an uncoordinated fashion?
I'm afraid that usefulness is still lagging far behind current adoption. We can talk all we want about the current merchant interest level, institutional interest level, etc. But the fact remains that the "masses" still perceive bitcoin to have limited current usefulness to them. Other than a few online shops, the places to spend bitcoin are still limited, especially to where the masses go to shop (whether online or brick-and-mortar). The masses want to be able to make purchases at Amazon, Target, Walmart, IKEA, Starbucks, and their local grocery or store du jour. They want to buy gas with it, pay their electricity and phone bill with it. They want to back their 401ks with it, pay their rent with it, buy a car with it. Hell, after all these years I still can't even find a coffee shop or bar in my town that accepts bitcoin. Not one. Until merchants adopt bitcoin en masse, I'm afraid the "masses" are likely going to sit on the sidelines and wait. We've still got a long way to go... |
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If we got a quarter bitcoin holders panic sold for every time someone trolled 'all aboard, dont miss the train China's out, the Bitcoin ride is over, bitcoin going to $100/$50/$0/-$50', we'd all be filthy rich moving on from this grand experiment after 5 years, Satoshi would dump his million coins, all the exchanges would close, the bitcointalk forum would shutdown completely, the VC's would lose 100's of millions of dollars, and most importantly all the idiot day traders would actually have to go and get REAL day jobs... or continue to lose their arse on penny stocks.
FTFY How do people think BTC achieved the fiat value it has today? Magic? |
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I'm probably a little more cultist than you (lol), but sounds like you've at least got a sound strategy to work with. Your (relative) loss is not that great and if you live in the U.S. you can write down up to $3K loss/year on your taxes. If and when you do decide to get back in to BTC, I would really sit down and think about your motivation to own some. Do you believe in Bitcoin long term? Or are you just looking to become wealthy overnight (< 6-12 months)? Do you plan to use it as a currency, a store of value, or both? What do you think or hope the Bitcoin market/ecosystem will look like in 5 years? 10 years? Just because bitcoin reverses into an uptrend does not guarantee its demand curve, or even its long term success or survival. You may take up a position during an uptrend and it may completely stagnate for 6-12 months... or even start another downtrend. So there is no guarantee. Therefore it really does go back to your belief in the fundamentals and long term potential of Bitcoin. Bitcoin believers get a bad rap these days, but it's soooo easy to rail on the bulls and permabulls when in a downtrend. What apparently seems to be lost on the bears/non-believers/idiot day traders is that the Bitcoin diehards are thinking on a timescale of 2-4 years out, not what is going to happen next week or next month or even in the next 4-6 months. This long term position strategy has never failed the believers so far. We believe there is way more upside than downside to holding BTC. If you had bought Amazon in mid-January you'd be sitting on a 25% loss right now. If you had bought Facebook in early March you'd be sitting on a 16% loss right now. Bought 3D Systems in early January you'd be sitting on 50% loss right now. Twitter, -50% since late December 2013. Overvalued at those prices? Sure, maybe. But in 2-4 years, possibly a steal. No one can predict for sure, so only time will tell. I would start cultivating a long term thinking of Holding as an investment strategy. Once in an interview, Warren Buffett was asked to respond with the first thing that popped into his mind. When the interviewer said "Buy", without hesitation the first thing that Warren Buffett blurted out was "HOLD!" |
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Unless they are needed for an active order, I recommend keeping them in a safe wallet. Cold storage or Bitgo would be best.
Two good reasons:
1) They won't be stolen if you keep your private keys safe and unused.
2) Your BTC can be lent to others who sell them short. By keeping them on the exchange, you allow them to be sold short, possibly repeatedly. This will depress the price, hurting your investment. Get the coins off the exchange and they won't be used by the bears to drive price down. Get enough off the exchange and you will help squeeze the shorts, forcing them to buy.
Good advice, if only more bitcoiners realized this. Drain the exchanges dry for all I care, the idiot day traders need to be squeezed. Also, it'll help call out those exchanges that refuse to be audited and are possibly running ponzis. |
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Haha, I guess they feel too shame to be in that meeting. Chinese people feel shame on a lot of things, not like western people Dumbest statement I've read in this subforum in a while. Your username does you justice. |
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June 1st. Because China FUD-sters get restless every 15 days or so that the price doesn't do what they want, so they have to make up some bullshit about another China bank cutting off an exchange, complete with stupid mis-interpreted Chinese webpage.
The good news is that China exchanges will eventually run out of banks to deal with, so no more FUD can be spread from that crap anymore. Then we will just see if the Chinese exchanges can continue to operate. My bet is yes, because they'll just start to resort to in-person cash deposits ala localbitcoins. Or just move their operations to Hong Kong.
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Gosh, oh gee wiz, this May 10th date seems really REALLY important you guyzzzzz!!?!?!?! Because China, guyzzz? It can't possibly be because the China banks want to spread more FUD ahead of the Global Bitcoin Summit 2014 conference in Beijing on May 10th - 11th? To try to disrupt that event and sway the Chinese even further against bitcoin? Naw, nothing at all to do with that, huh? Nope, not at all. http://www.globalbtcsummit.com/en/ |
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"The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett Applies to the bitcoin market just as well
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Reading this thread makes me sad for the OP. No one that has held bitcoin for at least 24 months, regardless of what they paid for it, has lost money.
A lot of spectators, even bitcoin owners are starting to feel as if the price of BTC has seen it's top. They also believe that the vast majority of the world's population has in-depth knowledge of Bitcoin and all of its advantages, which is grossly overstated if not just plain wrong. The opposite is true, the vast majority is completely oblivious and has never heard of Bitcoin, yet. Of those that have indeed heard of Bitcoin, the majority of that subset don't have enough info or the correct info to make the decision to buy some, or are not in the position to buy any (i.e., broke or no access to an exchange, etc.).
It's estimated that there are currently only 2-3 million people WORLDWIDE who actually own any bitcoin at all. By contrast, the population of just one large U.S. city, like New York, is ~8.3 million people. Imagine what happens to the price when suddenly tens of millions, even a hundred million people around the world eventually want to buy some bitcoin. This could happen faster than anyone could imagine.
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Deacon Frost: "I'll tell you what Bitcoin is, sister! It's the top of the f'n food chain. The Bitcoin blood god's coming and after tonight, your other forms of currency are f'n history. He's a hurricane. An act of God. Anyone caught in his path will instantly be turned. Every other currency you've ever known... every other currency you've ever f'n loved... it won't matter who's pureblood crypto and who's not. How you gonna cure the whole f'n world? Hm? And Bitcoin's protocol is the key. " |
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Is there a reason why you have to ask a question in this subforum every single day?
Are you just that bored, or can you not really think for yourself? Just curious...
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Amazing how you just show up out of the blue to enlighten us with this news, just as the price is going down! Uncanny the timing! I'm so glad that you are not affiliated with those idiot troll day traders that have to make up FUD in order to get the price drop that they need to make a quick buck a few days from now. I'm sure that no one in China will buy a single bitcoin after today, as the charts will clearly show. /sarcasm |
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