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7201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 27, 2014, 05:44:35 PM
It is a much more lucrative and "safe" vehicle for scams than the classical ones -- stolen credit cards, counterfeit cash, phony viagra, nigerian heirlooms, penny stocks, ponzi funds, ...

Wrong. Do you even have any idea how profitable just credit card fraud is? The credit card fraud in a single year alone absolutely dwarfs the entire bitcoin ecosystem.
That is utter bullshit, please stop repeating it.

I had the numbers somewhere that I cannot find now, but from memory: commercial payments through credit cards amount to over 7 trillion dollars a year, so 11 billion dollars of fraud is 0.2% of the total.   In comparison, Bitpay claims that it processed 100 million dollars of payment last year; even if you multiply by 4 to account for other bitcoin e-commerce outside Bitpay, that is still less than the MtGOX heist alone.  Even if you leave MtGOX out (since, technically, it may have been "embezzlement" rather than fraud), the KNOWN scams and heists in 2013 add to several million dollars at least.  So, KNOWN bitcoin fraud must already be at least 10x worse, in percentage of total e-commerce, than credit card fraud.



One reply then ignore.

So you are going to compare the CC industry that has had 55+ years to mature, with ever increasing oversight, regulation, and fraud prevention in the multi-billions of dollars per year, with Bitcoin?  A brand new payment system that's only been around for 5 years and little to no industry or worldwide regulation yet?  

Apples and Oranges dude.  A better comparison would be to the U.S. Wildcat frontier banking system during the 1800s.
7202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 27, 2014, 03:48:41 PM
the 90's companies maybe, but the companies on bitcoin are bitpay, coinbase, Mt.Gox (already doomed), etc.

however TCP/IP, HTTP, FTP, etc are all still around. Those are the protocols.

Bitcoin (the protocol) will most likely survive in any scenario, while bitcoin (the currency) will gain value as Bitcoin gains more utility and becomes more easy to use for the average person.

The difference between the internet and bitcoin is that you can invest directly in the protocol, without having to invest in a company. Never in history was there a chance to directly invest into a potentially life-changing worldwide protocol.

Yes, very true.  I especially like your last 2 sentences.  Although anyone who bought popular IP domain names early on and sold them years later made a killing.

Nobody knows what bitcoin-based companies or exchanges will still be around 10 years from now, but the Bitcoin protocol will live on along with bitcoin the currency.

However, the short-lived tech world history has shown us that a company that makes something technology-related so brain dead simple for the masses to comprehend and easy to use, usually that company has staying power since they managed to grab onto early market share and become a market leader.

Apple made easy-to-use GUI OSes and integrated software/hardware brain dead simple.

Netscape made web browsing brain dead simple.  

Google made internet searching brain dead simple.

Facebook made social networking brain dead simple.

YouTube made online video sharing brain dead simple.

LinkSys made WiFi brain dead simple.

Apple and Google made smartphone and tablet apps brain dead simple.

So who will make bitcoin e-commerce brain dead simple?  Many companies like Coinbase and BitPay are trying.  Perhaps we have yet to see those players that are already good at that kind of thing (Google?  Apple?  Facebook?  Amazon?) enter the bitcoin arena.  My bet is that eventually we will, and that they are already discussing it.

7203  Economy / Speculation / Re: NEW ATH BY END OF JULY & $5000 PER BITCOIN BY END OF YEAR on: May 27, 2014, 02:28:25 PM
Only way we'll be at $5k by the end of the year is if someone unleashes another Markus and Willy.

Not really.  During the Nov run up, I estimate that deep pocket whale speculators (worldwide, mind you) pumped in about 10-20% of the fiat that brought us from $150 to $1100.  From a $1B market cap to a $12B market cap.  Then they traded it back down, and left the market several weeks ago, leaving the market rock bottom at about $4.5B.  Now they are slowly starting to re-enter the market.  Provided 2-3X the number of whales come back into the market during the next run up, and we have 2-3X more bitcoiners joining the party by that point, hitting $5K/BTC should be trivial.
7204  Economy / Speculation / Re: What if on: May 27, 2014, 02:16:45 PM
What if I told you, that you trolls are trying way too hard? lol  (Oh crap, I'm feeding them now...)
7205  Economy / Speculation / Re: Willy bot and no price drop.. on: May 27, 2014, 02:06:35 PM
news seems to be always timed perfectly to keep the price in check so that it follows the price pattern
weird huh!

Almost like some big big players are messing around.

I mean bigger than buffet, the true wales hide everything about them.

You will consistently see negative FUD news about bitcoin in one of different 3 periods:

1.  Shorters/day traders trying to drop the price during an uptrend

2.  Whales/Banks/Govt/Powers-that-be that WANT to pop a bubble top (funny how the worst of the worst negative news comes coordinated just precisely at these times, doesn't it?  Uncanny! Look for it at the top of the next bubble (e.g. exchange being closed by a gov't or going belly up, some government raid or banning, etc.)  It will be obvious, but will come out of left field.)

3.  The long tail after a bubble pop - oh boy, the media and the FUD spreaders have a field day with this one.  Just a steady stream of FUD and negativity for months, bitcoin witch hunts, etc. Notice that it's interspersed with some good news here and there, to cause the rise-and-fall stair step pattern down, with lower highs and lower lows.  The idiot troll day traders know exactly what they are doing, as this gives them much more return than just selling everything at the top and walking away.  Remember, they sold at the top and also caught the falling knife of the bubble pop, so they also get the benefit of the double-top/dead-cat-bounce and potentially doubling their profits for the 4-5 months after the top as they slowly, painfully sell it back down again.

4.  Also notice as an aside: once at the very bottom of the downtrend, all negative news about bitcoin in the media completely goes away.  From that point forward it's all kumbaya positive news again.  Again, weird huh?  That couldn't possibly be on purpose, could it?  So you think that's air you are breathing now, Neo? Wink

nice post, thank you!

Thanks.  

Based on the recent new threads started today on this sub (by our fav trolls, some old, some new), guess which phase we are in now?   Grin
7206  Economy / Speculation / Re: Willy bot and no price drop.. on: May 26, 2014, 10:12:16 PM
news seems to be always timed perfectly to keep the price in check so that it follows the price pattern
weird huh!

Almost like some big big players are messing around.

I mean bigger than buffet, the true wales hide everything about them.

You will consistently see negative FUD news about bitcoin in one of different 3 periods:

1.  Shorters/day traders trying to drop the price during an uptrend

2.  Whales/Banks/Govt/Powers-that-be that WANT to pop a bubble top (funny how the worst of the worst negative news comes coordinated just precisely at these times, doesn't it?  Uncanny! Look for it at the top of the next bubble (e.g. exchange being closed by a gov't or going belly up, some government raid or banning, etc.)  It will be obvious, but will come out of left field.)

3.  The long tail after a bubble pop - oh boy, the media and the FUD spreaders have a field day with this one.  Just a steady stream of FUD and negativity for months, bitcoin witch hunts, etc. Notice that it's interspersed with some good news here and there, to cause the rise-and-fall stair step pattern down, with lower highs and lower lows.  The idiot troll day traders know exactly what they are doing, as this gives them much more return than just selling everything at the top and walking away.  Remember, they sold at the top and also caught the falling knife of the bubble pop, so they also get the benefit of the double-top/dead-cat-bounce and potentially doubling their profits for the 4-5 months after the top as they slowly, painfully sell it back down again.

4.  Also notice as an aside: once at the very bottom of the downtrend, all negative news about bitcoin in the media completely goes away.  From that point forward it's all kumbaya positive news again.  Again, weird huh?  That couldn't possibly be on purpose, could it?  So you think that's air you are breathing now, Neo? Wink
7207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Another Bitcoin Analyst on: May 26, 2014, 08:49:30 PM

A correction out of the pennant is set to occur by the end of this summer through fall. This is why I think it might be a good time to sell soon, if you're still holding.


TL;DR - Man, that was a lot of writing just to out yourself as a troll day trader who is shorting.  Getting nervous?
7208  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Sell now? on: May 26, 2014, 08:32:35 PM
Looking at the DRK thread it appears that there is an issue with the planned fork that has people panicking.

But maybe the whole thing is a pump and dump.

Do research before investing to find out the answers you need! Smiley

A scam coin that tries to use (legitimate? yeah right) negative news as a valid reason for the bubble pop (instead of the fact that it's really an over-hyped PnD)?  Say it ain't so!  Wink

I call it'll be @ < $6 by August.

Thanks for reminding me as I had 100 Dick ....sorry i meant DARK coins lying around that i just liquidated on cryptsy...

I agree I think we are at the top of PUMP cycle ..Once pplz stop and think about a coin designed for DRUGS, Money Laundering and Terrorist Activities they may start to wonder why they are being followed


..lolz

P.S Good luck trying to get an exchange who uses Banks & USD to accept DarkCoin

P.P.S It has its place ...just like whores gotta smoke da CraCk ...but to say "KING OF THE ALTS" nigga please ... Cheesy

People act like this one feature of a truly anonymous coin is going to somehow catapult it to a multi-hundred million USD valuation overnight, when they forget that this so called "feature" can be replicated over and over by other new alt-coins as well.  There will be more of these silly coin-offs every couple of months, all saying "No I can do anonymity the BESTEST EVAR!!"  I predict that by this same time next year, that there will be over 50+ so called "Dark" or "Anonymous" alt coins, all claiming to do something special from the others and continuing to dilute each other's market share.  Meanwhile, bitcoiners that want some level of anonymity will just use a combo of add-on techs like Tor, CoinJoin, and Dark Wallet to essentially do the same damn thing with their bitcoin.  Big deal.
7209  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Sell now? on: May 26, 2014, 07:54:59 PM
..some of the innovations in coins like ....[snip] .... can't necessarily be coded into BTC if only because of monolithic/centralized nature of the bitcoin devs and the foundation. so there may be value there.
Just because you say so? Prove it.
7210  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Sell now? on: May 26, 2014, 07:45:17 PM
Looking at the DRK thread it appears that there is an issue with the planned fork that has people panicking.

But maybe the whole thing is a pump and dump.

Do research before investing to find out the answers you need! Smiley

A scam coin that tries to use (legitimate? yeah right) negative news as a valid reason for the bubble pop (instead of the fact that it's really an over-hyped PnD)?  Say it ain't so!  Wink

I call it'll be @ < $6 by August.
7211  Economy / Speculation / Re: Double top near 548 on: May 24, 2014, 07:00:10 PM
Right, but to wait for that point is to miss the downward move between the top and the point of support.  Retail investors wait for confirmation on all signals.  To be most profitable, you must look for the early signs and find more supporting evidence.  I'm looking for the latter now.


Troll shorter is too obvious.
7212  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2014, 02:24:05 PM

You know when the likes of fonzie shows up that the shorts are starting to panic, lol.   Grin
7213  Economy / Speculation / Re: thinking about buying 5k in bitcoin on: May 24, 2014, 02:22:13 PM
Buy now, after the next bull run we will never see below $1k anymore.

I think the OP is too late now. He will be fighting for 2100 satoshi 2 years from now Grin

Not sure what you mean, what am I am to late for? I already have 5.14 coins that I bought at/under 450 and it is up to 530. Not sure where else I can make that kind of return on investment this fast. Even if I buy at 530 and it goes up, nothing beats the return. (at least to my knowledge)
Awesome job, man. I don't think you could of timed your entry point much better this year.  Enjoy the ride!
7214  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: May 24, 2014, 12:48:54 PM
As Bitcoin proponents, is it not a little hypocritical for us to criticize "pump and dump" as something only applicable to alts and not Our Coin?  Roll Eyes
Great point Risto. Now that I've witnessed and felt the full lifecycle of a true bitcoin bubble (aka "rally") I know now that a pump and dump is exactly what a bitcoin rally truly is.  Supply greatly contracts while demand goes through the roof, but it's only temporary.  Do the bitcoin fundamentals really change in that one 3-4 week span that happens every 6-8 months or so?  No, only the perception of the adopters.  Luckily we have btc holders and thus network growth (otherwise btc bubbles would just collapse completely), a new higher exchange rate settles in and takes hold, and everyone adjusts to the new "normal".  Wash, rinse, repeat.
7215  Economy / Speculation / Re: The market was waiting for a jump so it could rally... on: May 24, 2014, 11:32:15 AM
So much this.  Once you get through your first bubble to the next one, it's hard to be too upset about any drop when it's still hundreds of % higher than what you bought at before.

I dont see a rise of hundreds of % at these levels. That was possible on single and double digits. But at three digits I cant really imagine that BT will ever trade for five digits.

Really? Human psychology of dealing with large numbers aside, bitcoin could easily rise several thousand % from here. Will it rise anytime soon? I would say unlikely. I expect several months of meandering back upwards and once we retake 800 then its off to the races. But who knows, it is bitcoin right?

There are optimistically say 2 million bitcoin 'users' globally. From Rpietila there are perhaps 14,000 people with more than 100 coins, another 85,000 with between 10 and 100 coins, and all the rest holding below 10 coins individually.

Let's think about that for a moment - globally there may be less than 100,000 people holding more than 10 coins which comprise the overwhelming majority of all coins in existence. And really it is probably closer to 20,000 holding more than thirty coins.

There are approximately 7.2 billion people on the planet. In 2011 there were 6 billion mobile phone active sims globally. There is a film floating about called 'The rise and rise of bitcoin'. There should be a film called 'The rise and rise of the smartphone'. What is happening right now is the creation of - in my view - internet 2.0. There are over a billion smartphones globally and in the next five years this technology will have spread like wildfire connecting everyone irreversibly.

The internet has destroyed, altered or disrupted everything it has touched thus far. Postal services -> email. Conventional telephone -> VOIP. Conventional printed media -> blogging and 24 hour news sites. Hard films and digital media -> commercial streaming media (netflix) and torrents. Finance is next. Voting may follow that.

Half the world is unbanked and will soon be clutching a powerful unix workstation which is permanently connected to the net.

If bitcoin can simply continue to exist, at current user adoption rates it must rise massively in value.

Even if total bitcoin users rises from 1-2 million to just ten million the price will rise many fold. If by some wonderful stroke of luck bitcoin can survive and actually become a true transacting currency of the internet then todays prices will appear incredible.

I know this is a speculation forum but patience is a virtue!

Great post!  I think we're getting really close to getting past the public's psychological hurdle of triple digit bitcoins, or the notion that you even have to buy whole bitcoins.  It should just be that you're buying 'bitcoin' (plural, no 's', like the word money)  The public is starting to do the research and see that the exchange rate per BTC only really reflects the total marketcap, not the amount that most are buying.  When we solidly get into quadruple digits again, even more people will do the research and understand.  Then at that point 4 and 5 digit bitcoin will become more acceptable as we move on to the smaller denominations for discussion and use.
7216  Economy / Speculation / Re: Peter Schiff doesn't change his stance on bitcoin...by taking bitcoin on: May 24, 2014, 03:31:48 AM
Part of his argument is wearing thin though, that he says well you cant use bitcoin for anything essential like paying taxes or paying your rent bill.
Yet he is never willing to admit that you can't do those things with gold either.  Nor is he willing to admit that with bitcoin in the future, you surely may be able to pay you rent (some can now in certain parts of the U.S.) and maybe even your taxes (third party??)
7217  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: May 24, 2014, 03:27:12 AM
I am going to defend here some alt coins.

...but i think it is scary and even risky to think that Bitcoin is going to be the only cryptocoin in the future.

Ok, but can I ask you 2 simple questions that seem to completely befuddle the alt coins lovers? (they never reply with a valid argument, or even reply at all):

1. Since Bitcoin is completely programmable, then in the future can it not take on any new feature of any alt coin out there?  Thus rendering all other alt coins obsolete?

2. How do you know without a doubt that it will be one of the current list of alt coins that will Bitcoin's successor?  Why not some alt coin that hasn't even been invented yet?  And if it is possible it will be an unknown future coin that may not be around next year or even for the next several years, then wouldn't investing in any of the current ones be pretty worthless right now?
7218  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Darkcoin vs Litecoin on: May 23, 2014, 01:56:53 PM
...aannnd queue the Darkcoin dump in 5...4...3...2..   Wink
7219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Peter Schiff doesn't change his stance on bitcoin...by taking bitcoin on: May 23, 2014, 12:55:36 AM
I can't stand Peter Schiff, what an asshat.  I watched the video where he debated Stefan Molyneux, and Peter was a total douche, cutting Stefan off and talking over him.  And Peter's arguments against bitcoin were juvenile and unresearched... so typical.
7220  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss twins: Bitcoin will be bigger than Facebook on: May 19, 2014, 01:05:19 PM
Why would I listen to bullish statements by someone who owned a million bitcoins?
Because these guys frequently rub shoulders with industry insiders and wealthy investors, folks you never will.
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