Let's look at the facts :
No bad news for weeks.
China FUD just disappeared overnight? The witch hunt FUD for the real Satoshi disappeared overnight? Bitstamp insolvency fears, Willy, Gox, and all the other bad news gone? And for some reason, you don't wonder why that is? Couldn't possibly be on purpose, by design that all bad news just magically went away, could it? And you think that's air you're breathing now, Neo? 
(full disclaimer: I'm a permabull, but I know exactly how the media works, when, and for what purpose) |
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Here's the thing, in the bitcoin world it doesn't matter how great some piece of news is. If it comes out during a down trend, it can be the greatest news in the world, but will still have little to no effect on the price. For example, if the news "Amazon now accepting bitcoin" came out in March, it would have had little effect to reverse the downtrend.
Now if that same news comes out in the next 3-4 weeks (and just so happened to be timed perfectly with the pre-bubble top) it would have a MAJOR upward effect on the price. This happened in November with the Senate hearings giving bitcoin thumbs up. I wouldn't be surprised if some more good news just so happens to come along in the next 3-4 weeks.
And of course, the next bubble pop will be timed with some really bad news out of left field (which someone is saving to deliver at just the right time), I can pretty much guarantee it.
This market is still just so sentiment driven because it's small, and the powers that be KNOW that.
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Litecoin being traded to pump Nxt, Darkcoin, and Blackcoin. Guess what happens after the pump? Buh bye |
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Old and outdated article. Also the article itself is pretty much garbage and kicks in a bunch of open doors, but I guess it's not that bad considering it's written by a high school student. Outdated? The date was like 2 days ago. |
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Oh cool, another fly-by-night crypto news site, with so-called bitcoin TA "experts" that simply state the obvious and don't know jack. Really like some of these quotes from the article: "This volatility has not been uncommon in Bitcoin’s history; Bitcoin has seen numerous rises and falls in value. Speculations have arisen about the cause of this increase."Wow, ya think? Never noticed that.  "The roller coaster value is often attributed to good or bad news."Such insight! Is the writer a wizard? "CCN writer Venzen Khaosan thinks that the “price will reverse from current levels around $600 and may retrace at least 50% of the advance to $520″, and that “traders and investors should brace themselves for a strong price reversal.”Got it wrong. |
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Where's Mark Williams these days? From December: "One of the harshest critics is Mark Williams, who teaches finance at the Boston University School of Management. He predicts that in the first half of 2014, bitcoins will lose almost 99 percent of their value, falling below $10. " http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/12/10/this-finance-expert-thinks-bitcoin-will-fall-99-percent-by-june/Just bugs me to no end that there's essentially no career risk for these "experts" to make such harsh predictions and be so thoroughly wrong. If an engineer is ever that wrong, bad things happen, and they don't get work again. When a finance/econ guy is aggressive, harsh, willfully ignorant, and ultimately dead-wrong....his career is usually just fine. Yep, so called "experts" have been making wrong predictions throughout time, some of them so blatantly wrong it's ridiculous. Especially in the last 100 years or so. And since there is zero penalty for some "expert" asshat to made a terribly wrong prediction, it will just continue ad nauseum in the future. http://www.rinkworks.com/said/predictions.shtmlhttp://www.professorbitcorn.comMark Williams has 30 days left to be correct, or get laughed out of existence. It's completely plausible that we may see an ATH in 30 days or so, which would be even funnier. |
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You could possibly attribute this entire chart to the advancement of tumblers.
And the growth could also be attributed to the payment of mining rewards to hashers. I perform a couple of transactions each day. One of those is a daily purchase of fractional bitcoin from my local ATM, and the second is a small bitcoin payment from someone who leases one of my three GPU mining rigs to mine altcoins. I am postponing Bitcoin spending during what I believe is the run up to the next, widely expected, bubble. The Bitcoin Pulse web site tracks numerous fundamental Bitcoin adoption statistics. I would assume that as bitcoin true e-commerce (i.e., more places for users to actually spend bitcoin, financial institutions, etc.) takes off, and provided that Coinbase and BitPay don't dominate the merchant market and execute every transaction off-blockchain, it's possible that yearly transaction growth of 3.2X could grow to something higher in the future? |
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^^^
SS, what does this transaction volume extrapolate out to on the above chart over the next 3 years? Is this a linear growth rate in transaction volume, or exponential?
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Disagreed on the "led by China" statement. I made my case against that often enough now, so I'm not repeating it here. China is a large factor still though, so if it's just hyperbolic phrasing to say that, I'm okay with it.
The volume surge on Huobi was 2 minutes ahead of Stamp. This isn't up for debate, it is there in black and white (or red and green).Sorry, but this happens almost 9 times out of 10 and it cannot be ignored. You're right for once: this isn't even up for debate. The spikes, in chronological order: 14:17 Bitfinex 111 xbt (local spike, but not a huge order exactly. I'd call it "the rally starter, part 1") 14:18 Bitstamp 693 xbt ("the rally starter, part 2") 14:18 Huobi 42 xbt (how things got started in Matland) EDIT: and if this is about the first impulse of the breakout, then: 11:30 Huobi 286 xbt 11:31 Huobi 594 xbt 11:32 Bitstamp 943 xbt / Huobi 842 xbt Summary: Huobi indeed began the first impulse of this local rally 2 minutes earlier than stamp, but within 2 minutes higher volume order(s) came in on Bitstamp. That's not what it looks like if "one exchange leads the other". That's "exchanges getting each other in a buying frenzy". Not to mention, MatTheCat never seems to ponder the obvious truth that a few whale traders have multiple accounts on different international exchanges (e.g., Whale #1 has a trading account on both Bitstamp and Huobi, thus being able to play sides of the rally on multiple exchanges simultaneously). So saying that "China is leading this rally, not the other nations" is misleading and possibly just plan wrong. |
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The market is reacting badly to rumors of Bitstamp's impending collapse.
Merchant adoption and that sort of thing is priced in already.
I desperately hope that Bitstamp will not collapse, but if it did, is it similar sized to Mt Gox, or bigger or smaller? I fear it would be the end for Bitcoin. Impending collapse, you say? A world leading exchange that not only imposes self-audits from 3rd parties every quarter, but also actively encourages other exchanges to do the same? Ok. I'm gonna quote myself, from earlier in this thread: Notice that Mike Hearn, who did the last "audit", clearly stated that it was not an audit. He said the only thing he could confirm, was that Bitstamp still held around 189k BTC of their customers' funds. That's it. And why should we trust him anyway? Oh, yeah, because he's from the Bitcoin Foundation, like Saint Mark Karpeles. Everyone in the Bitcoin Foundation are trustworthy, of course. They're incapable of doing evil. And btw, they didn't show him (or anyone else) their fiat reserves. (If they have any left.) I wonder why ... Yeah, saw that you're a newbish account here, and the majority of your thread responses are trollish and full of doom. Guessing that you are a troll day trader. Welcome to ignore. |
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The market is reacting badly to rumors of Bitstamp's impending collapse.
Merchant adoption and that sort of thing is priced in already.
I desperately hope that Bitstamp will not collapse, but if it did, is it similar sized to Mt Gox, or bigger or smaller? I fear it would be the end for Bitcoin. Impending collapse, you say? A world leading exchange that not only imposes self-audits from 3rd parties every quarter, but also actively encourages other exchanges to do the same? Ok. |
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I read the title as "Why are psychotics bearish on bitcoin?"
And then I thought, yep... sounds about right. Herp derp.
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There is a good chance the USSA will do the same as China and restrict banks and payment processors from touching cryptocurrencies. That would test below 400, I assure you.
interesting. i tend to agree on the outcome, but what kind of probability do you put on this, and what kind of time frame? it seems like, thus far, USA has been pretty favorable to crypto. Good lord, yet another clown to put on ignore. |
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Ok, just continue on through life never admitting you were wrong.
I am wrong often. Yes, you are. And you are a fkn idiot clown. Quit trying so hard to convince people here that you have an inkling of a clue as to what you are doing. |
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Yeah, let me just remind everyone again of what brilliant sage TA advice that MatTheCat serves up. Also notice that the first 2 posts were as recent as May: As it happens I never shorted at $520 and I never shorted at $430 either just as I amn't going to short now. Whether my $200 range call comes good anytime soon I don't know, but Bitcoin testing $360 is looking very very likely. Infact, I would go as far as to say that it is already written on the wall
I am not saying sub $300 this weekend. I am saying next significant support level is $260. Sooner or later, Bitcoin is going to have to test the upper resistance or the lower support. It seems pretty obvious to me which is the more likely of the two scenarios to play out.
I will take a much longer break from Bitcoin than 6 months. I have been against Bitcoin philosophically for some time but was addicted to trading it cos I was winning. Now that I am losing, I have no further interest in it. I will be back here to indulge in some empty gloating when Bitcoin hits $200 range like I said it would....and it will.
Sorry Ibian old bean, but $200 range it will be. Bitcoin takes these near vertical counter trend price spikes, rises 40% within a few days and then we find time and time again that there is no demand for Bitcoin at these levels cos the only real demand for Bitcoin is speculative demand. If people can't make money from it then they don't buy it and start selling it.
My advice to n00bs coming to Bitcoin now is don't buy Bitcoin right now. 1 day MACD is about to cross to the downside and with the manipulated short squeezing pump up to $540 aside, there is absolutely not enough interest in Bitcoin at these prices, to sustain these prices. Bitcoin is going to $200 range. I would recommend an upper $200 buy-in order and even if Bitcoin drops a whole lot further than this, there will always be an opportunity for the n00b investor to break even if he enters at a $260-$300 range. Buy-in now at $450 and by the end of next week, you may never see the $450 Bitcoin again for a very long time. Perhaps such a long time that your tolerance for loss will break and you will cash out taking a substantial hair cut.
I would certainly look to buy in sub $300 territory with a belief that a strong reversal must surely be on the cards should Bitcoin touch into the $200 range. Failing that, whenever I see an opportunity for a bit of upside and I feel comfortable enough being long Bitcoin. I was long Bitcoin just a couple of days ago, but didn't feel comfortable with it so cashed right back out.
You are last person that I would take Bitcoin call from. I just want to let you know that.
And I never said $200, I said $200 range. If Bitcoin hits $299, then I am right.
I am bearish on Bitcoin because it has been going down overall and will continue to do so. With that said, I shall never short Bitcoin again as I have discovered that engaging in this activity opens a whole psychological can of worms that I am not good at dealing with. By the same token, I shall never use leverage in Bitcoin ever again. The next time I shall buy Bitcoins is when we are back down at the lower range of the trendline. Next stop mid $200 range.
Once $380 support fails, then this will instigate a massive psychological change in the market, turning formerly strong hands to weak hands. Then the Bitcoin market will get to know all about despair. I said before, I reckon the $200 range lies ahead in the not too distant future. Quote me for truth if you like.
I have (practically) no market position that is affecting my emotional state. I say Bitcoin is going back to $200 range. If I am proven wrong than I shall be ready to jump back on if/when Bitcoin takes out and holds above important resistances (first being $480-$490), but will of course drop the lot the minute things start to look a bit shaky, as for me, my better instincts tell me that the writing is on the wall for Bitcoin.
In fact, I can't and won't give you credit for being "right" unless we see 250. That's your call. So until then, why don't you go do something else or stop beating your chest for things most other people know too.
$250 wasn't my call!
$200 Range is my call! Maybe not tomorrow, nor the day or week after that....But Bitcoin will grind painfully down over the course of time, interspersed with the odd 'spirit rekindling' counter trend rally of course. My sentiment couldn't be more apathetic right now, but when I put my mind or energies into anything, I generally find myself ahead of the trend. MatTheCat is calling $200 range Bitcoin! Before any further ATH can ever be seen, if indeed any ATHs are ever seen again. If this doesn't transpire, then everyone can quote this statement for truth to eternity whenever I rear my head on this forum. |
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And to think that I was called a used car salesman for telling the OP to buy now when he posted the thread.
OP could have gone all-in. Instead he chose to listen to the noobs and bears.
$400/btc won't come back for most of us; there may be a flash crash for a chosen few. Self-fulfilling prophecy or not, this summer will bring a major bubble, solidly putting the rocket up to the $5000 range. It will crash down to $2500.
I def considered your opinion when I bought some coins, I feel everyone has given me great advice. Obviously I regret not going all in when it was 350-450 but I was concerned with it dropping down and then I go belly up haha. Had I known that it was gonna go close to 600 I would have bought in more but the piece of mind is also worth something. I am now up to 7 coins with 5 bought around 420-460 and then I bought 2 more yesterday when the price fell to 550 (now back up to 570-80) So if your prediction is right over 1k up to 5k I will still be making a nice chunk of change and I'm feeling pretty solid with the money I spent on my 7.14 coins. If it tanks I will still be eating. If anyone can give me a guarantee I will put 20k in bitcoin  thanks for all the tips/opinions. Really helped me with my first post and with bitcoin investing in general I can give you this guarantee: you are buying at the lowest point of the year. I envy your entry position. I seriously doubt we'll see lower than this. But on downswings don't panic, keep holding. And plan on a 1-2 year hold. Because chances are that just about the time you are thinking about selling for whatever reason, it'll go parabolic. |
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LULZ
TOOL
DUDE
WTF?
YOLO
...and the obvious one...
MOON
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What value do you see that will be added between now and Summer that will push the price so high?
Value? Bitcoin had all the value it really needed by 2011. What will push the price up from here is simply exponential growth. |
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Quickcoin is the coolest thing that happened to Bitcoin since whitepaper.
Agreed. If tipping each other "bits" starts taking hold on FB like it did on the reddit bitcoin sub, it could spread like wildfire. FB has ~1.3B active users/month. Hopefully this will spurn FB to add their own first party integration. |
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Much glitch
Very Huobi
Rich Chinese
Fake Volume
Crap trading engine
Insider trading
Stupid Government
Soon to be shut down
Wow
Added a few things to your list.  |
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