The rate at which we have been generating blocks since namecoins inception of April 18th, 2011 has been approximately 8 blocks per hour on average.
There are more variables to consider: for example, the last NMC block on namebit is going for 28 hours now, and has had a drop of about 85% of miners that hopped away. Right but I can only go on the data I have and that is the time since inception and the number of blocks generated. Make sense? |
|
|
|
That is a terrible link for someone who is technically overloaded ... it is the raw source ... lol! Go here if you want to start with some kind of orderly info ... http://dot-bit.orgI stand corrected. I must have copied the wrong link of the windows I had open. LOL My bad! |
|
|
|
Realize the merged mining change is several months out. We are barely 16 blocks into the current 2016, with network hashing capacity still leaking out as quickly as NMC miners realize they're giving up a good 40% of their computing power relative to mining BTC and buying NMC. Even at the current hashing rate we're talking September to finish the remaining 2000 blocks.
Then the next 2016 will take about 2 days, and another 6 or so weeks to get to block 24000. So very likely 3 months until merged mining at the earliest. Plenty of things could happen before now and then.
Let's correct some of your statements. It is currently 105 blocks into the 2016 for this period currently. Yes many have left the mining market, true. But that does not account for if the price of NMC goes above the current difficulty ratio thus sending a surge of miners over to mine NMC. Also you forget that block 24,000 is a tentative block number in which could be changed to say 20,000? So your assumption of it being 3 months out is circumstantial to whether or not people will not want to mine nmc or if some of the incoming funds into bitcoin will not spill over into the namecoin market. I suspect that when there is another surge in the bitcoin market you will see the nmc market move too. |
|
|
|
I also don't really get what you fear that happens when that "bomb" goes off.
What part of my article implied "fear"? I did not even use that word in my comments. |
|
|
|
At the current moment the namecoin block chain has 18,247 blocks that have been generated. Total namecoins that have been mined is 912,350 NMC of which 67,255.83 ( http://explorer.dot-bit.org/) have been destroyed due to domain name registration on the TLD .bit. At the very most there currently exists 845,094.17 assuming no namecoins have been lost due to a corrupt wallet file etc, etc, etc. The current exchange rate is 0.0292 BTC / 1 NMC ( https://exchange.bitparking.com/main). This implies that the entire namecoin market is approximately the equivalent of: 845097.17 NMC * 0.0292 BTC/NMC = 24,676.74 BTC Essentially one early adopter of BTC could buy up the majority of the namecoins with close to 25k bitcoins (assuming the price doesn't move much which is not likely). The market cap of the namecoin market at this moment is: 24,676.74 BTC * $14.02 /BTC = $345,968.03 Each namecoin is worth: $14.02 * 0.0292 BTC/NMC = $0.409384 With the merged mining update ( http://dot-bit.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=217&sid=3d4f20064f7f1e7239072284a5b4e901) and domain cost decrease by 4 times after block 24,000 on the horizon ( http://dot-bit.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=151&start=10), are we looking at a ticking time bomb on the namecoin market? Also note that domain cost will be 0.01 NMC before the end of the year very likely with the merged mining and updates at block 24,000. Thoughts welcome... |
|
|
|
The developers of NameCoin can do what the want to do. I am saying that first because you will not hear it when I say what I have to say. This is not a good idea. Why? 1. NameCoin's difficulty will increase with out the market deciding if it's a good idea or not. 2. Perception is EVERYTHING and although it's not true that namecoin will cause inflation to bitcoin that's how it will be perceived. On a personal note I like getting lots of namecoins with me 12 Ghashs I don't want to share with deepbit's 4 THashs!!! LOL  Just my 2 bit cents. Davinci BTW I think the fact that namecoin is only traded with bitcoins helps bitcoins increase in value as there is 1 thing on the market that can only be purchased with bitcoins. Are you using all 12 GH/s to mine Namecoins? |
|
|
|
Supply will not change because the network adjusts difficulty. Demand - who knows what it will do.
Actually supply will double and that is why price will most probably drop by 50%. I somewhat agree with this. Because namecoins are identical in nature as a currency there is a good chance that some of the incoming funds into bitcoin will filter into namecoin eventually if not really quickly. |
|
|
|
don't worry, "old coins" will work just like "new coins", the client will use "old rules" for blocks < 24000 and new rules for blocks >= 24000. it's transparent to users.
So are you absolutely sure that it would be possible for old coins to be added to the new patched block chain? Trust me, the developers would be shooting themselves in the foot if the coins before block 24000 were incompatible with the network after block 24000 given that the majority of their holdings originated prior to block 24000. This would will the trust of the entire network and cause an death spiral in the network.' So yeah I think we're pretty confident they will be compatible. |
|
|
|
|
A wise man once told me that trying to sell something without a picture is like someone looking to get a match/date on the internet without a photo.
Pix please?
|
|
|
|
Originally your math would have been correct but since the new updates to NMC network at block 24,000 will likely take place the prices for domains will go close to 0 NMC very quickly.
That would make a difference then. Well played sir. This isn't good for NMC value - if you need next to none of them, there will be no demand. I can't imagine that there are millions of people waiting to register .bit domains. Unless NMC becomes a competing currency to BTC, I really think this isn't a good move on the devs part. The lack of demand is already evidenced by the BTC/NMC exchange rate. This will just worsen the situation. One other thing to note is that the cost of a domain is not the only factor to consider when valuing namecoins. The purchase of domains is purely a function of the network and really may have no bearing currently on the price that NMC is traded at. The value that it has is purely determined (at the moment) by those who buy or sell them and those who mine them. Value is determined by people, not by the object. |
|
|
|
|
The only real difference between namecoins and bitcoins is that bitcoins have had lots of money pushed into the market and bitcoins had a chance to mature in development and through the internet community awareness.
Aside from the development (maturing factor) and the money put into each, there is little difference aside from that namecoins do have a functionality that bitcoins don't.
|
|
|
|
Originally your math would have been correct but since the new updates to NMC network at block 24,000 will likely take place the prices for domains will go close to 0 NMC very quickly.
That would make a difference then. Well played sir. This isn't good for NMC value - if you need next to none of them, there will be no demand. I can't imagine that there are millions of people waiting to register .bit domains. Unless NMC becomes a competing currency to BTC, I really think this isn't a good move on the devs part. The lack of demand is already evidenced by the BTC/NMC exchange rate. This will just worsen the situation. You forgot that in order to mine them it will take quite a bit of time once difficulty goes up. So yeah they will be cheap but the average user might not have the ability to mine them at a low cost. They of course could buy them. So yeah there is a likelihood that the prices could be depressed. But somehow I think there will be demand for them in that they are just like bitcoins only difference is that the market has not been inflated with incoming money just yet. We'll see... |
|
|
|
Should be interesting because in 6 months, at the most, if you own a namecoin you will be able to purchase a 1000 times more domain names than you can today. Currently it takes 11.1 NMC to purchase a domain name. With that same 11.1 NMC in 6 months you will be able to register 1,110 domains.
Sound familiar? The exponential growth is very similar in that of bitcoin.
After the last difficulty adjustment and the price overall rising in the ratio of NMC to BTC I'd say people are hanging on to them NMC's.
I don't know where you're getting your numbers from. The cost goes down by 50% every 8192 blocks. Once merged mining happens, it'll take at most 4 difficulty updates to bring difficulty to parity with bitcoin. That's just over 10,000 blocks. After that, cost goes down by 50% every 2 months. So in ~2 months merged mining will become a reality, then difficulty will shoot up in a matter of days to adjust to the new processing power. At this point we're about 16,000 blocks from now. That's 2 halvings of cost, so cost is 1/4 of what it is now. Then every 2 months we'll get another 50% decrease. So that's 1/16th of current cost to register a domain in 6 months. Hardly 1/1000th. Currently we are at block 18242 and a domain costs 11.08 NMC currently. Now the following link states that at block 24,000 and on the cost of a domain will decrease by 4 times the current rate. http://dot-bit.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=151&start=10So if we generate an average of 6 blocks per hour 24 hours a day for 180 days we get: 6 * 24 * 180 = 25920 blocks Now let's subtract the remaining blocks until 24,000 from now: 24000 - 18242 = 5758 blocks Now subtract that from the 25920 blocks to get the total blocks that will be at a 4 times decrease in NMC to buy a domain: 25920 - 5758 = 20162 blocks Now since we are moving at a rate of 4 times faster after block 24,000 it is accurate to say that using the domain cost calculator at http://www.namecoin.us/tools.php the actual "block" we will be at will be: 20162 * 4 + 24000 = 104,648 So if we just used the average 6 blocks per hour over the next 6 months (180 days) the cost of a domain will be less than 0.01 NMC in 180days based on the calculator and using block 104648 as the "block" value we are going to be at. Maybe 5 months was more accurate given that a price of 0.01 NMC occurs around 90k to 100k blocks. So my math is that since it takes 11.08 NMC currently to buy a domain and in less than 6 months a domain will cost 0.01 NMC it is safe to assume that the price of NMC to buy a domain has decrease 1108 times. Originally your math would have been correct but since the new updates to NMC network at block 24,000 will likely take place the prices for domains will go close to 0 NMC very quickly. Let me also add that once merged mining takes place the process of domain cost decrease will accelerate even more. It could be closer to 3 or 4 months when you see a domain going for 0.01 NMC. But then again I am just speculating. The rate at which we have been generating blocks since namecoins inception of April 18th, 2011 has been approximately 8 blocks per hour on average. So this is just another sign that 0.01 NMC domains are not far away. |
|
|
|
Should be interesting because in 6 months, at the most, if you own a namecoin you will be able to purchase a 1000 times more domain names than you can today. Currently it takes 11.1 NMC to purchase a domain name. With that same 11.1 NMC in 6 months you will be able to register 1,110 domains.
Sound familiar? The exponential growth is very similar in that of bitcoin.
After the last difficulty adjustment and the price overall rising in the ratio of NMC to BTC I'd say people are hanging on to them NMC's.
I don't know where you're getting your numbers from. The cost goes down by 50% every 8192 blocks. Once merged mining happens, it'll take at most 4 difficulty updates to bring difficulty to parity with bitcoin. That's just over 10,000 blocks. After that, cost goes down by 50% every 2 months. So in ~2 months merged mining will become a reality, then difficulty will shoot up in a matter of days to adjust to the new processing power. At this point we're about 16,000 blocks from now. That's 2 halvings of cost, so cost is 1/4 of what it is now. Then every 2 months we'll get another 50% decrease. So that's 1/16th of current cost to register a domain in 6 months. Hardly 1/1000th. Currently we are at block 18242 and a domain costs 11.08 NMC currently. Now the following link states that at block 24,000 and on the cost of a domain will decrease by 4 times the current rate. http://dot-bit.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=151&start=10So if we generate an average of 6 blocks per hour 24 hours a day for 180 days we get: 6 * 24 * 180 = 25920 blocks Now let's subtract the remaining blocks until 24,000 from now: 24000 - 18242 = 5758 blocks Now subtract that from the 25920 blocks to get the total blocks that will be at a 4 times decrease in NMC to buy a domain: 25920 - 5758 = 20162 blocks Now since we are moving at a rate of 4 times faster after block 24,000 it is accurate to say that using the domain cost calculator at http://www.namecoin.us/tools.php the actual "block" we will be at will be: 20162 * 4 + 24000 = 104,648 So if we just used the average 6 blocks per hour over the next 6 months (180 days) the cost of a domain will be less than 0.01 NMC in 180days based on the calculator and using block 104648 as the "block" value we are going to be at. Maybe 5 months was more accurate given that a price of 0.01 NMC occurs around 90k to 100k blocks. So my math is that since it takes 11.08 NMC currently to buy a domain and in less than 6 months a domain will cost 0.01 NMC it is safe to assume that the price of NMC to buy a domain has decrease 1108 times. Originally your math would have been correct but since the new updates to NMC network at block 24,000 will likely take place the prices for domains will go close to 0 NMC very quickly. |
|
|
|
You ready with the proper server equipment to handle the rush? I suspect you will see >1000 GH/s this time around on your pool alone. But I could be wrong, I'm just going on the potential GH/s we have out there already and assuming that less than 1/10th of it comes to NMC even for a few days.
It's been running on a dedicated server for a while now, and handled 250+ fine when I switched to it from the old VPS I was using before. I don't think we'll see 300+ again personally. I think the namecoin/bitcoin price ratio will adjust much faster than in previous times when few knew about it. I guess I was right. I seen your pool go up to 330 GH/s during the last difficulty change. |
|
|
|
After about 3 difficulty changes after block 24000, NMC and BTC will have the same difficulty it seems.
So what's the relative value of two coins that have exactly the same difficulty to produce?
You're looking at it from a strange perspective. After NMC block 24000 BTC will have their normal difficulty to produce and suddenly for a vast majority of namecoin miners NMC will have an effective difficulty of 0 -- they will be produced as a free side effect of existing BTC mining. Their value will be based purely on their utility (and demand), and should no longer have any bearing on their relative difficulty compared to BTC. Their relative value could go either way, of course. But I suspect the shift from current namecoin miners to bitcoin miners won't have a positive relative price impact in the short term. Long term depends heavily on whether 7200+ namecoins are consumed every 10 days or not. I'm just taking the other side of the trade out loud. Consider merged mining with Namecoin as a dilution of the new overall "Coin" market. Given the same difficulty and hash rate, miners are simply given twice as many coins. If you don't presume a bias towards either type of coin, then you've just diluted the market by adding twice as many coins over the long run. The ratio of Bitcoins to Namecoins will approach 1 to 1 in the long run. Both equally scarce. Both having required the 1/2 of the same investment to create. Using that admittedly incomplete analysis, then long term Namecoins are worth about the same as Bitcoins. Plus, both are worth half as much as one would have been before the dilution. If you are building a trade plan around this idea, then you are trading from the long side of the currently thin Namecoin market. This analysis is flawed - you cannot assign worth to something without making an assumption about the demand for that good. You're assuming that namecoins will have the same demand as bitcoins, which is certainly not going to be true unless namecoins will become a general purpose currency instead of being limited to registering domain names. As a result, there will be no dilution of bitcoins. Since namecoins will essentially be a byproduct for most miners after merged mining, NMC might experience depreciation. Depends on whether the miners hold onto the NMC or dump them on the market. Also, difficulty is completely arbitrary as far as price is concerned. The only things that matter are supply and demand. Supply will not change because the network adjusts difficulty. Demand - who knows what it will do. You will likely have (even a small amount) a spill over in the money that goes into bitcoin into namecoin. Yes they may not be at parity but keep in mind namecoins have a usage that bitcoins do not but at the same time have all the properties that bitcoin has. There are likely outcomes that namecoin could become a competing crypto currency on a higher scale than you can imagine. Should be interesting because in 6 months, at the most, if you own a namecoin you will be able to purchase a 1000 times more domain names than you can today. Currently it takes 11.1 NMC to purchase a domain name. With that same 11.1 NMC in 6 months you will be able to register 1,110 domains. Sound familiar? The exponential growth is very similar in that of bitcoin. After the last difficulty adjustment and the price overall rising in the ratio of NMC to BTC I'd say people are hanging on to them NMC's. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
