No he isn't. The error is purely historic. It has nothing to do with the current prediction.

i have one question, if you dont hold any value in bitcoin and you have no desire in having an alternative to FIAT.. then ... why are you even on this forum??

Some landlords do accept BTC as payment, as well as lawyers, stores selling food and clothes, and there's a service that allows you to pay bills in bitcoins. Keep in mind that Bitcoin is still very young and people are just beginning to see its potential and to trust it. Adoption is still growing exponentially.

And even if we can never pay taxes in BTC, it does not matter. Bitcoin IS the superior currency. As more and more people realize this, its value will grow, the US dollar will get weaker, so these few things that can't legally be paid with Bitcoins will be trivial expense for those who held the coins for long enough - and its value will continue to grow as long as fiat currencies exist.

All is always voluntary, that's the main characteristic of humanity. And trade between private parties is way more significant than trades with the government.

Sorry but I'm not buying that argument.  Given your reasoning, I could say the same thing about early adopters of, say Microsoft stock, apple stock, or any speculative investment.  Prices always rise and fall due to supply and demand.  Price is based on the dynamics of the marketplace.  You can call bitcoin a bubble if you want ( although I wouldn't say that's true either), but that's more accurate way to describe the dynamics.  A Ponzi scheme involves a central person literally paying out early adopters from later adopters' funds, and this is NOT the same thing as people trading an financial instrument in the marketplace.

well i get paid in bitcoin, i buy things in bitcoin.. food, car fuel, drink.. pay rent etc etc.. my world is not fiat dominant.

now have a nice day, kid

There's always a choice. The only thing tying us to the fiat world, is our voluntary contribution to it.
Being free is as simple as saying no to those who oppress our ideals, and having the balls to keep walking an unpaved road. Especially now, thanks to the great minds who gave us Bitcoin as an arme-de-resistance.

im just facepalming your failures to understand bitcoin and now your misunderstandings of value..

i am not even going to try teaching you the truth.. so now please just hand over your worthless bitcoins to 'seans outpost' and get on with your life back in the FIAT world. you obviously dont want to be part of bitcoin

So why does a newly minted coin silver dollar cost 50 of them to own? Why shouldn't we just pay a buck for it?

as long as there is a need, there is a value

You are mistaken, and clearly don't understand how bitcoin works.

what you are talking about is not true value.. but fake value.. basicaly making a bet.. its not a store of value.. thus my walkthrogh was talking about actual stores of value. meaning actual gold ownership. not a bet/gamble on a price.

take for example the winklevoss project.
the want people to invest into winklevoss.. not to buy bitcoins directly but to invest into winklevoss, where investers are hoping that winklevoss value will rise because the twins hold X amount (owned by only the twins) and the profits come from the business valuation after a price rise.. not based on investors having bitcoin and the investors own possessions have risen in price.

anyone investing into winklevoss, does not own a single bitcoin. they own a balance amount on a database on a winklevoss server..

do not be tricked into these fake schemes that are not real stores of wealth. they are purely to make more FIAT profits based on gambling. not hoarding rare materials directly.

Have you been reading what I wrote at all? Do you still not understand that there is no randomness? This isn't an opinion, it's a fact. NOTHING IS RANDOM. EVER. Not even the random number generators in computers - it's based off of complicated strings and your cpu clock.

Do you realize that if you can predict whether the price of something is going to move up or down correctly more than 50% of the time, you are successfully predicting future prices? Nobody said they can predict prices perfectly 100% of the time.

I don't understand how you don't understand this -_- It just plain is NOT random. All I'm claiming is that I can predict the price within a reasonable margin of error MOST of the time. And it's not like you can argue against this, because it's objectively true. My software does it on the ENTIRE HISTORY OF BITCOIN DATA every hour and predicts within an average of 1.3% error. You're arguing against something that is just clearly objectively true.

Edit: Read the name of the post!!! I said it's a prediction, that that it WILL be $500! ugh please try to understand...

Naïve poster, school thyself.  Random does not mean a coin toss.
In e.g. Taleb's usage it means that the most effective models we know are stochastic process models.  They make predictions. That is why we call them effective.

I'm sorry but I'm not going to bother trying to get my software to predict S&P right now because I have a ton of other work to do. If you want to test accuracy, you should just make your own bitcoin price predictions and test their accuracy compared to my charts on this website.

If you want to know how it works look up artificial neural networks on Google. This isn't some simple process that I can explain to you in one post. It's a very complex computational model that people have been developing and researching since the 1940s. You could teach multiple college courses just on neural networks alone. To be honest, it seems like you are refuting 70 years worth of research based on your gut feeling that humans would be better at this - and if we're going to be realistic, computers are better than humans at nearly all tasks involving any type of computation. They're surpassing us quickly in other realms as well. They have been able to beat us in chess for a long time now, they can beat us in almost any other game, and they can even drive cars better than us now. Is it so hard to believe that they can predict stock prices better than us?

You should search Google for studies using neural networks for stock price prediction. You will find plenty of examples of it being done successful.

I will reiterate my main point that I expressed before though: Neural networks can find patterns that humans can't. Just because we can't see patterns or understand them doesn't mean that they aren't there. Neural networks can find complex and extensive patterns that no human could possibly ever understand. I use 60 inputs to predict the 24 prices for the 24 hour prediction. The hidden layer has 200 inputs. This basically is like representing a function with 12,000 variables. Obviously this is extremely complicated, and obviously there is no way a human could understand a function like this.

No matter how often you trade and how much time you spend trying to understand patterns in price fluctuations, you will never come even remotely close to being able to understand these patterns as thoroughly as a properly implemented neural network. It's like trying to beat a calculator at math - you can't do it.

The thing that you have to understand is that just because we, as humans, can't see predictable patterns in a set of data doesn't mean that they aren't there. Neural networks are REALLY good at finding patterns that humans cannot see. The first time I ever implemented a neural network was to recognize hand-written digits. It was able to correctly classify some hand written digits that were written so poorly that I, a human, could not tell for sure if they were one digit or another.

Human behavior is not totally unpredictable. Especially given large numbers of humans. This is besides the point though. The actual cause of price fluctuations is completely irrelevant actually. My computational model has no idea what is causing prices to change because it doesn't matter at all. All that matters is that there are repetitive patterns in the data (which there are). The neural network learns these patterns, and is able to use them to accurately predict bitcoin prices.

You can say you don't believe that bitcoin prices can be mathematically modeled, but it is still true - it's exactly what I'm doing (relatively successfully) here.