Analysis

[masterluc]

[1715173057]

1715173057

[1715173057]

1715173057

[1715173057]

1715173057

[bitcodo]

 
What do you mean?
4 will be 250, 5 will be 1000 and than to R?

[masterluc]

3 of historical 5 running.

[bitcodo]

Can you post a graph with numbers, like you used to post.

[Marbit]

Can you post a graph with numbers, like you used to post.

yes this please 

[Zarathustra]

3 of historical 5 running.

If June 11 was the historic big One and April 2013 was not the big Three, than the pending big Three should reach 4 digit numbers. Right, master?

[masterluc]

Possible. But I see typical signs of terminal 5th wave in people excitement sentiments.

[masterluc]

I will not post internal TA. I will post just my estimations in transmission and tahometer data. So.

[ElectricMucus]

Possible. But I see typical signs of terminal 5th wave in people excitement sentiments.

1: 0-> 32
3: 2-> 266
5: 50-> XXXX

How can it be any other way?

[xephyr]

Stochastic RSI oscillator has been giving good entry and exit signals - Trading Bitcoin using StochRSI

[firstcrypto]

So you want a bullish wavecount?

I present the most bullish count i find plausable:

https://i.imgur.com/dqwJRPc.jpg

What has always bothered me is that the rise from 0.x -> 32 was so much more profound than the rise from 32 to 266. I don't think they are on the same degree. In log space the 266 peak doesn't even reach up to the long term trend line extended from the 32 peak. That is not normal.

So i created a wave count which makes the 266 peak a subdivision on the road to 3.

This means we are on the 3rd gear (like masterluc suggests), but on a lower degree.

If this is actually the case, the upside and rise from here will be _enormous_.

Is there any evidence to back this up?

This is the orderbook for mt gox at the moment:
https://i.imgur.com/uNM8NCc.jpg

There are 20 million dollars in bids. There are ~8000 coins for sale. Wow. Never in the history of bitcoin have there been so many dollars chasing so few coins. Never before have there been such a huge discrepancy between buyers and sellers. The price went from 32 to 266 when there was a comparable amount of dollars chasing 150.000-200.000 coins. The current situation is much more profound. This is the case for all other traded currencies as well. There are extremely few coins for sale at these prices.

Dividing the bids on the asks (20.000.000 / 8000) would give an average price of 2500 per coin. That is more in the correct range comparable to the 0.x -> 32 rise. (I know this is a simplification, but it is just a thought exercise)

Does this fit with the current mood / sentiment?
Its always difficult to gauge but to me it "feels" like everybody is just waiting for the bubble to pop. The media is in frenzy that its a bubble, its almost given that this will end badly very shorty. Every analyst i see in MSM say its a bubble. (remember, this is just my impression, i might be wrong). When everybody say its a bubble, its not. The point you should be very afraid of is when nobody say its a bubble - that is the point where it is actually a bubble. Also (again this is my personal impression) bitcoiners are worried that it is a bubble right now. There is a polite avoidance of the subject, because its a uncomfortable subject to say the least. Talks about bubble is met with aggression. Prices rise on a wall of worry. To sum up i don't see the all engulfing euphoria you would expect at a peak yet, the mood is much more reserved and calm.

Little bit tipsy here from my cough medicine, but i would say this looks very positive for bitcoin in the short term. Would be surprised to see a "devestating" pullback now (lets hope i didn't just jinx it

[notme]

So you want a bullish wavecount?

I present the most bullish count i find plausable:



What has always bothered me is that the rise from 0.x -> 32 was so much more profound than the rise from 32 to 266. I don't think they are on the same degree. In log space the 266 peak doesn't even reach up to the long term trend line extended from the 32 peak. That is not normal.

So i created a wave count which makes the 266 peak a subdivision on the road to 3.

This means we are on the 3rd gear (like masterluc suggests), but on a lower degree.

If this is actually the case, the upside and rise from here will be _enormous_.

Is there any evidence to back this up?

This is the orderbook for mt gox at the moment:


There are 20 million dollars in bids. There are ~8000 coins for sale. Wow. Never in the history of bitcoin have there been so many dollars chasing so few coins. Never before have there been such a huge discrepancy between buyers and sellers. The price went from 32 to 266 when there was a comparable amount of dollars chasing 150.000-200.000 coins. The current situation is much more profound. This is the case for all other traded currencies as well. There are extremely few coins for sale at these prices.

Dividing the bids on the asks (20.000.000 / 8000) would give an average price of 2500 per coin. That is more in the correct range comparable to the 0.x -> 32 rise. (I know this is a simplification, but it is just a thought exercise)

Does this fit with the current mood / sentiment?
Its always difficult to gauge but to me it "feels" like everybody is just waiting for the bubble to pop. The media is in frenzy that its a bubble, its almost given that this will end badly very shorty. Every analyst i see in MSM say its a bubble. (remember, this is just my impression, i might be wrong). When everybody say its a bubble, its not. The point you should be very afraid of is when nobody say its a bubble - that is the point where it is actually a bubble. Also (again this is my personal impression) bitcoiners are worried that it is a bubble right now. There is a polite avoidance of the subject, because its a uncomfortable subject to say the least. Talks about bubble is met with aggression. Prices rise on a wall of worry. To sum up i don't see the all engulfing euphoria you would expect at a peak yet, the mood is much more reserved and calm.

Little bit tipsy here from my cough medicine, but i would say this looks very positive for bitcoin in the short term. Would be surprised to see a "devestating" pullback now (lets hope i didn't just jinx it

Interesting.  My current favorit count is slightly less bullish in that 266 was the complete wave 3 and we are on the verge of completing wave 3 of 5.  Your count is clearly much more bullsih in the long term, but either way buy the fuck out of any sizable correction in the short term.

[oda.krell]

So you want a bullish wavecount?

I present the most bullish count i find plausable:



What has always bothered me is that the rise from 0.x -> 32 was so much more profound than the rise from 32 to 266. I don't think they are on the same degree. In log space the 266 peak doesn't even reach up to the long term trend line extended from the 32 peak. That is not normal.

So i created a wave count which makes the 266 peak a subdivision on the road to 3.

This means we are on the 3rd gear (like masterluc suggests), but on a lower degree.

If this is actually the case, the upside and rise from here will be _enormous_.

Is there any evidence to back this up?

This is the orderbook for mt gox at the moment:


There are 20 million dollars in bids. There are ~8000 coins for sale. Wow. Never in the history of bitcoin have there been so many dollars chasing so few coins. Never before have there been such a huge discrepancy between buyers and sellers. The price went from 32 to 266 when there was a comparable amount of dollars chasing 150.000-200.000 coins. The current situation is much more profound. This is the case for all other traded currencies as well. There are extremely few coins for sale at these prices.

Dividing the bids on the asks (20.000.000 / 8000) would give an average price of 2500 per coin. That is more in the correct range comparable to the 0.x -> 32 rise. (I know this is a simplification, but it is just a thought exercise)

Does this fit with the current mood / sentiment?
Its always difficult to gauge but to me it "feels" like everybody is just waiting for the bubble to pop. The media is in frenzy that its a bubble, its almost given that this will end badly very shorty. Every analyst i see in MSM say its a bubble. (remember, this is just my impression, i might be wrong). When everybody say its a bubble, its not. The point you should be very afraid of is when nobody say its a bubble - that is the point where it is actually a bubble. Also (again this is my personal impression) bitcoiners are worried that it is a bubble right now. There is a polite avoidance of the subject, because its a uncomfortable subject to say the least. Talks about bubble is met with aggression. Prices rise on a wall of worry. To sum up i don't see the all engulfing euphoria you would expect at a peak yet, the mood is much more reserved and calm.

Little bit tipsy here from my cough medicine, but i would say this looks very positive for bitcoin in the short term. Would be surprised to see a "devestating" pullback now (lets hope i didn't just jinx it

Very well thought out post. Thanks!

I'm not very fond of EW analysis, maybe because my understanding of it so far is rather superficial, but with different methods I arrive at similarly staggering high price points that we *could* reach in this run up.

What I really found interesting is your very disattached, fitting (IMO) view of the current sentiment.

One thing though: don't rely for order book analysis on mtgox data alone. At the very least, go to, say, coinorama and get a historical overview of normalized bid/ask ratios for different exchanges, which is in my opinion a much more reliable way of gauging the market situation than a snapshot of mtgox order book alone.

[masterluc]

Do you scare of this? 

[samurai1200]

Masterluc: We've been riding the top of the BB for weeks... so why did you say a few days ago:

Fast? Still not fast =) I consider it sustainable so far.

[notme]

Masterluc: We've been riding the top of the BB for weeks... so why did you say a few days ago:

Fast? Still not fast =) I consider it sustainable so far.

Probably because we didn't yet have the gap between bollinger band and price that has developed now, we were only riding the top.

[samurai1200]

Ah ok that seems reasonable I guess. 3.5 weeks of riding the top though... destined for correction!

[masterluc]

Masterluc: We've been riding the top of the BB for weeks... so why did you say a few days ago:

Fast? Still not fast =) I consider it sustainable so far.

I am talking about BB bottom =)

[masterluc]

[masterluc]

I don't know, really. I used to watch and educate the price behavior for two years (day by day)  along with studying EW theory. And I identified markers which say "Now we are here <->". When marker will be at some point I will exit. That is it.