[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Corepolitics]

Your point is a moot one.

If two people agree on a medium of exchange as a currency then it is simply that,... a currency.

Your STARBUCKs example is broken when comaring Monero to a "currency".

I'm pretty sure seashells stopped being used as a medium of exchange long ago. Not sure what your point was there. Unlike gold and silver which are still used as currency (be it you may not see it for yourself) but it actually does take place more often than you think.

Just because not everyone accepts gold/silver/monero/bitcoin for payment does not make it NOT a currency.

That is my point ^.

Seashells did indeed stop being used as a common medium of exchange long ago. Much like silver standard being abandoned almost a century ago. People moved onto something different.  I wish we still had metal backed money and I hold some physical PM's, and asset backed PM's on the blockchain more for novelty than wealth preservation or bc I'm a disaster prepper silverbug.  I can't say with a straight face that they are generally accepted or in general use in day to day life, just like bitcoin.

if the case is that only two people agree on a medium of exchange- then it becomes labelled as a currency, then how is XMR a currency and ETH, not? (As claimed above) How are seashells not a currency when me and my friends always trade cowries. Why won't starbucks or anyone for that matter let me buy shit with these shells?

Good question. I never said ETH wasn't a currency. But nice try to bring another topic of discussion that has nothing to do with me into our conversation.

I never said seashells are not a currency. But if you and your friend want to have your little seashell trading club that's fine. But if you are trading sea shells...how is that in any way a medium of exchange?

If I trade silver coins for other silver coins....the medium has not changed.

Once again your logic failed?  

Actually we're not trading sea-shell for seashells.And it's not a club but nice try making it sound cutesy. It's a movement that making waves. You should sea for yourself. My friend Shelley gets paid completely in the  damn things (be it you may not see it for yourself) but it actually does take place more often than you think. She sells sea shells for all sorts of things and I buy them with silver coins, or sometimes brass or nickel shavings. I even traded a handful of Lealanas for an exquisite specimen one time. My other buddy Tom trades them too. He's a carpenter who recently lost his wife and found himself unable to work after breaking both arms in a snowmobile accident.  so he'll chuck me a few shells in exchange for me polishing his wood or sanding things down.

.

I will answer when I have time, but for now suggest this as background on what is moneyness:

When money is used to intermediate the exchange of goods and services, it is performing the function of a medium of exchange. It avoids the inefficiencies of a barter system, such as the dependence on the occurrence of a coincidence of wants. To be widely acceptable, a medium of exchange should have stable purchasing power. Therefore, it should possess the following characteristics:

Valuation of common assets
Constant utility
Low cost of preservation
Transportability
Divisibility
High market value in relation to volume and weight
Recognizability
Resistance to counterfeiting
Source: Boundless. “Functions of Money.” Boundless Business. Boundless, 21 Feb. 2016. Retrieved 06 Mar. 2016 from https://www.boundless.com/business/textbooks/boundless-business-textbook/the-functions-of-money-and-banking-21/money-as-a-tool-123/functions-of-money-568-3194/

I produced the following comparison table. Welcome any feedback and/or corrections


Valuation of common assets: Seashells: No, Monero: No, Eth: No
Constant utility: Seashells: No, Monero: No, Eth: Yes
Low cost of preservation Seashells: Yes, Monero[/i:] yes, Eth: Yes
Transportability: Seashells, No [Monero: Yes, Eth: Yes
Divisibility: Seashells: No, Monero Yes, Eth: Yes
High market value in relation to volume and weight: Seashells: No Monero: yes, Eth: Yes
Recognizability: Seashells: yes Monero; No, Eth: Yes
Resistance to counterfeiting Seashells: Yes? Monero: Yes, Eth, Yes

[1715092374]

1715092374

[1715092374]

1715092374

[smoothie]

Your point is a moot one.

If two people agree on a medium of exchange as a currency then it is simply that,... a currency.

Your STARBUCKs example is broken when comaring Monero to a "currency".

I'm pretty sure seashells stopped being used as a medium of exchange long ago. Not sure what your point was there. Unlike gold and silver which are still used as currency (be it you may not see it for yourself) but it actually does take place more often than you think.

Just because not everyone accepts gold/silver/monero/bitcoin for payment does not make it NOT a currency.

That is my point ^.

Seashells did indeed stop being used as a common medium of exchange long ago. Much like silver standard being abandoned almost a century ago. People moved onto something different.  I wish we still had metal backed money and I hold some physical PM's, and asset backed PM's on the blockchain more for novelty than wealth preservation or bc I'm a disaster prepper silverbug.  I can't say with a straight face that they are generally accepted or in general use in day to day life, just like bitcoin.

if the case is that only two people agree on a medium of exchange- then it becomes labelled as a currency, then how is XMR a currency and ETH, not? (As claimed above) How are seashells not a currency when me and my friends always trade cowries. Why won't starbucks or anyone for that matter let me buy shit with these shells?

Good question. I never said ETH wasn't a currency. But nice try to bring another topic of discussion that has nothing to do with me into our conversation.

I never said seashells are not a currency. But if you and your friend want to have your little seashell trading club that's fine. But if you are trading sea shells...how is that in any way a medium of exchange?

If I trade silver coins for other silver coins....the medium has not changed.

Once again your logic failed?  

Actually we're not trading sea-shell for seashells.And it's not a club but nice try making it sound cutesy. It's a movement that making waves. You should sea for yourself. My friend Shelley gets paid completely in the  damn things (be it you may not see it for yourself) but it actually does take place more often than you think. She sells sea shells for all sorts of things and I buy them with silver coins, or sometimes brass or nickel shavings. I even traded a handful of Lealanas for an exquisite specimen one time. My other buddy Tom trades them too. He's a carpenter who recently lost his wife and found himself unable to work after breaking both arms in a snowmobile accident.  so he'll chuck me a few shells in exchange for me polishing his wood or sanding things down.

.

Well...


You forgot that what you originally said was:

How are seashells not a currency when me and my friends always trade cowries.

Which is not the same as exchanging sea shells for silver coins.


Do your argument/debate goal posts always move?

Also you can come up with your own material as your response sounds like a copy-paste of what I've responded with (with a few words changed).

No originality?  

If you did exchange some of my LEALANA coins for sea shells...I would love to see some proof of that. (I'm honestly interested in knowing about this.)

If this happened I'm curious why you never made a post about it online when it happened?

[Hueristic]

I produced the following chart. Welcome any feedback and/or corrections


Valuation of common assets: Seashells: No, Monero: No, Eth: No
Constant utility: Seashells: No, Monero: No, Eth: Yes
Low cost of preservation Seashells: Yes, Monero[/i:] yes, Eth: Yes
Transportability: Seashells, No [Monero: Yes, Eth: Yes
Divisibility: Seashells: No, Monero Yes, Eth: Yes
High market value in relation to volume and weight: Seashells: No Monero: yes, Eth: Yes
Recognizability: Seashells: yes Monero; No, Eth: Yes
Resistance to counterfeiting Seashells: Yes? Monero: Yes, Eth, Yes

Valuation of common assets: Seashells: No, Monero: No, Eth: No
Constant utility: Seashells: No, Monero: Yes, Eth: Yes(?)
Low cost of preservation Seashells: Yes, Monero[/i:] Yes, Eth: Yes : LOW is a subjective term
Transportability: Seashells, No [Monero: Yes, Eth: Yes 
Divisibility: Seashells: No, Monero Yes, Eth: Yes
High market value in relation to volume and weight: Seashells: No Monero: yes, Eth: Yes :High is a subjective term
Recognizability: Seashells: yes Monero; No, Eth: No : your dreaming if you think Eth is more recognizable in anything but a minimalist subset
Resistance to counterfeiting Seashells: No Monero: Yes, Eth, No(?)

Question marks for Eth are there as the Peer review nor maturity is no where near being at a acceptable level to provide trust

FTFY

[Corepolitics]

I produced the following chart. Welcome any feedback and/or corrections


Valuation of common assets: Seashells: No, Monero: No, Eth: No
Constant utility: Seashells: No, Monero: No, Eth: Yes
Low cost of preservation Seashells: Yes, Monero[/i:] yes, Eth: Yes
Transportability: Seashells, No [Monero: Yes, Eth: Yes
Divisibility: Seashells: No, Monero Yes, Eth: Yes
High market value in relation to volume and weight: Seashells: No Monero: yes, Eth: Yes
Recognizability: Seashells: yes Monero; No, Eth: Yes
Resistance to counterfeiting Seashells: Yes? Monero: Yes, Eth, Yes

Valuation of common assets: Seashells: No, Monero: No, Eth: No
Constant utility: Seashells: No, Monero: Yes, Eth: Yes(?)
Low cost of preservation Seashells: Yes, Monero[/i:] Yes, Eth: Yes : LOW is a subjective term
Transportability: Seashells, No [Monero: Yes, Eth: Yes 
Divisibility: Seashells: No, Monero Yes, Eth: Yes
High market value in relation to volume and weight: Seashells: No Monero: yes, Eth: Yes :High is a subjective term
Recognizability: Seashells: yes Monero; No, Eth: No : your dreaming if you think Eth is more recognizable in anything but a minimalist subset
Resistance to counterfeiting Seashells: No Monero: Yes, Eth, No(?)

Question marks for Eth are there as the Peer review nor maturity is no where near being at a acceptable level to provide trust

FTFY

I actually meant to fill Eth in as a no when it comes to recognizability field. Good catch.
Constant utility refers to gas usage in contracts. The Eth have a constant utility in the space of the ethereum blockchain. And although the utility of smart contracts in such a nascent phase could be up for debate I think they're becoming increasingly useful for a large subset of applications
Why are ETH not resistant to counterfeiting, whilst XMR are?

[TrueCryptonaire]

For me Monero is a store of value over longer periods (like Chinese Panda coins). Despite they are officially money (however, nominal value much lower than the metal value).
I think there will be merchants who accept XMR as a method of payment (I believe there are also a few merchants that understand the value of PMs and accept gold and silver as a method of payment at some exchange rate).
I do not need everybody in the world accepting XMR, for me it is cool if there are 1-2 reputable dealers of PM, perhaps opportunities to purchase some other assets that increases my networth. Consuming is not a big thing and I usually do not buy my cup of coffee because it becomes a big amount of money in one year (5 euros a day, 365 days a year => 1825 euros a year or 2000 usd).

I love speculation, therefore, here is my speculation: in 2036 Shit has hit on people's fan badly enough that they have searched alternative methods to store money aside of fiat system. PM are nice but only in smaller quantities. I think Risto is aware of what kind of stack of silver it is to hold 1 million euros in silver. Even for the case of gold, it is pretty heavy brick to carry around (for instance, if you need to escape the war from country a to country b you probably want to carry as little stuff with you as possible).

Currently even physical banknotes of USD are 1.38 trillion (source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/currency_12773.htm )
And that is only a small fraction of the overall money supply, but let's say for arguments sake a conservative number: XMR has achieved 1.38 trillion (or 1 380 000 000 000 000 000 usd - trillion is 10^18).
20 000 000 XMR in circulation (most of them are stored in cold storages so this is also not realistic but a very conservative estimation), therefore the value of 1 XMR is 69 billion usd. If 90 % of XMR remains in cold storages and only 10 % of XMR are in circulation, the value of each XMR in this case is 690 billion (10^9).

[explorer]

I love speculation, therefore, here is my speculation: in 2036 Shit has hit on people's fan badly enough ...snip... therefore the value of 1 XMR is 69 billion usd. If 90 % of XMR remains in cold storages and only 10 % of XMR are in circulation, the value of each XMR in this case is 690 billion (10^9).

I love your fantastic speculation,   but regarding the first bit, I speculate that you are off by an order of magnitude.   2 years should suffice to soil the fan, in my view.

[pa]

One trillion is 10^12 in the US.

[TrueCryptonaire]

is monero ever going to catch up to eth, eth seems to always be like a rocket ship while xmr is making relatively slow gains.

The slower the better as far as I am concerned. Or more to the point, the less tradable volatility the better.  It makes it so much easier for random people to hold, and encourages currency use, as well as reserve demand.  We need more market makers as things heat up, to smooth the curve.

I can do some market making but I am not thinking of doing it now when XMR is still so tiny.
When 1 xmr is like 1000 usd I might do it with smaller scale (like 10 000-20 000 usd). When XMR grows to bigger size (like 1000 000 usd/XMR) I will find marketmaking more useful. These levels even smaller guys can do it, all you need is a tiny bit of money and a lot of time. Money I have enough but I do not find it profitable enough timewise when the volumes are low and XMR is moving like a beast. After all, we are still in accumulation zone and the accumulators tend to eat the stack of market maker.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I love speculation, therefore, here is my speculation: in 2036 Shit has hit on people's fan badly enough ...snip... therefore the value of 1 XMR is 69 billion usd. If 90 % of XMR remains in cold storages and only 10 % of XMR are in circulation, the value of each XMR in this case is 690 billion (10^9).

I love your fantastic speculation,   but regarding the first bit, I speculate that you are off by an order of magnitude.   2 years should suffice to soil the fan, in my view.

Yes, I think XMR is definetely larger in 2 years than it is now. However, I am aiming world dominance and that might take more than 2 years because sometimes people are slow in their decisions. It took me 1-2 years to buy my first silver round after I heard the silver related propaganda of Risto.

[TrueCryptonaire]

One trillion is 10^12 in the US.

Okay, my bad. 

[bitebits]

You don't buy stuff with CPU cycles.  You don't keep your savings in AWS units.

I wonder why not. It at least has some intrinsic value compared to fiat for example, which people do use to buy stuff or keep their savings in.
Besides the speculative price swings, won't the price of a bitcoin/monero be close to it's mining costs (c.q. a derivative from the hashrate)?

[TPTB_need_war]

In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg14112660#msg14112660

[bitebits]

In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg14112660#msg14112660

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

[smoothie]

You don't buy stuff with CPU cycles.  You don't keep your savings in AWS units.

I wonder why not. It at least has some intrinsic value compared to fiat for example, which people do use to buy stuff or keep their savings in.
Besides the speculative price swings, won't the price of a bitcoin/monero be close to it's mining costs (c.q. a derivative from the hashrate)?

Does anyone have a good hold on what it cost to mine XMR?

That would be a good gauge of price.

[TPTB_need_war]

In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg14112660#msg14112660

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell.

The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  ).

Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales).

[TrueCryptonaire]

In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg14112660#msg14112660

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell.

The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  ).

Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales).

I think it is hard to figure out how many people are invested in XMR.
Try to buy XMR worth of 5000 usd and look at price chart what happens. Probably you are making a candle.
I am saying, 5 million marketcap is a marketcap that is supported when there is very little interest in XMR. That has been a solid rock bottom and personally I consider it a low probability event to go there anymore (unless btc will crash big time), that would need XMR should drop to 0.001-0.0012 levels and below when new coins are mined.
Of course I might be wrong here but I am playing with probabilities, and if you think the current marketcap is too high for XMR in the long run, then by all means, sell or even go to short position. I can lend you some Moneros if you need. 

[RAJSALLIN]

In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg14112660#msg14112660

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell.

The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  ).

Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales).

I think it is hard to figure out how many people are invested in XMR.
Try to buy XMR worth of 5000 usd and look at price chart what happens. Probably you are making a candle.
I am saying, 5 million marketcap is a marketcap that is supported when there is very little interest in XMR. That has been a solid rock bottom and personally I consider it a low probability event to go there anymore (unless btc will crash big time), that would need XMR should drop to 0.001-0.0012 levels and below when new coins are mined.
Of course I might be wrong here but I am playing with probabilities, and if you think the current marketcap is too high for XMR in the long run, then by all means, sell or even go to short position. I can lend you some Moneros if you need. 

I think TPTB was actualy bullish on Monero in his own super bearish overall sentiment way. Everything will crash but Monero has the best chances of not crashing as much or maybe not at all kind of...

[TrueCryptonaire]

In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg14112660#msg14112660

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell.

The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  ).

Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales).

I think it is hard to figure out how many people are invested in XMR.
Try to buy XMR worth of 5000 usd and look at price chart what happens. Probably you are making a candle.
I am saying, 5 million marketcap is a marketcap that is supported when there is very little interest in XMR. That has been a solid rock bottom and personally I consider it a low probability event to go there anymore (unless btc will crash big time), that would need XMR should drop to 0.001-0.0012 levels and below when new coins are mined.
Of course I might be wrong here but I am playing with probabilities, and if you think the current marketcap is too high for XMR in the long run, then by all means, sell or even go to short position. I can lend you some Moneros if you need. 

I think TPTB was actualy bullish on Monero in his own super bearish overall sentiment way. Everything will crash but Monero has the best chances of not crashing as much or maybe not at all kind of...

I am saying 5 million marketcap for XMR is nothing.
100 million marketcap neither is nothing. No currency has such a low market cap. I am not familiar with Krona of Iceland but I guess the marketcap of even that small currency based on fishing industry is more than 1 billion usd.

[smooth]

In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg14112660#msg14112660

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell.

The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  ).

Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales).

I think it is hard to figure out how many people are invested in XMR.
Try to buy XMR worth of 5000 usd and look at price chart what happens. Probably you are making a candle.
I am saying, 5 million marketcap is a marketcap that is supported when there is very little interest in XMR. That has been a solid rock bottom and personally I consider it a low probability event to go there anymore (unless btc will crash big time), that would need XMR should drop to 0.001-0.0012 levels and below when new coins are mined.
Of course I might be wrong here but I am playing with probabilities, and if you think the current marketcap is too high for XMR in the long run, then by all means, sell or even go to short position. I can lend you some Moneros if you need. 

I think TPTB was actualy bullish on Monero in his own super bearish overall sentiment way. Everything will crash but Monero has the best chances of not crashing as much or maybe not at all kind of...

I am saying 5 million marketcap for XMR is nothing.
100 million marketcap neither is nothing. No currency has such a low market cap. I am not familiar with Krona of Iceland but I guess the marketcap of even that small currency based on fishing industry is more than 1 billion usd.

We don't even have a fishing industry yet!

[TrueCryptonaire]

In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg14112660#msg14112660

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

 I am not familiar with Krona of Iceland but I guess the marketcap of even that small currency based on fishing industry is more than 1 billion usd.

We don't even have a fishing industry yet!

I am not completely aware of all the possibilities XMR enables but for me personally it is a store of value. If I invest for instance 25 % of each rental cheque (after taxes and other fees) into XMR, it means XMR is partially backed by appartments in Finland.
And perhaps later in US if I decide to start a real estate investing company in US. I have some contacts there already.