klee
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March 06, 2016, 11:45:26 AM |
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Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"? My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell. The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  ). Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales). I think it is hard to figure out how many people are invested in XMR. Try to buy XMR worth of 5000 usd and look at price chart what happens. Probably you are making a candle. I am saying, 5 million marketcap is a marketcap that is supported when there is very little interest in XMR. That has been a solid rock bottom and personally I consider it a low probability event to go there anymore (unless btc will crash big time), that would need XMR should drop to 0.001-0.0012 levels and below when new coins are mined. Of course I might be wrong here but I am playing with probabilities, and if you think the current marketcap is too high for XMR in the long run, then by all means, sell or even go to short position. I can lend you some Moneros if you need.  If 0.0034 was the top of this rally, expect lower lows though... |
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bitebits
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Flippin' burgers since 1163.
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March 06, 2016, 11:57:32 AM |
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If 0.0034 was the top of this rally, expect lower lows though...
I think it is a better measurement calculating Monero's value in USD for example. Bitcoin does not yet have a stable value. If Monero's market cap remains 10 million USD this year, but Bitcoin goes to 10 billion USD. Does that mean a lower low for Monero? |
- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett - Pay any Bitcoin address privately with a little help of Monero. |
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klee
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March 06, 2016, 12:08:53 PM |
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If 0.0034 was the top of this rally, expect lower lows though...
I think it is a better measurement calculating Monero's value in USD for example. Bitcoin does not yet have a stable value. If Monero's market cap remains 10 million USD this year, but Bitcoin goes to 10 billion USD. Does that mean a lower low for Monero? Good point, I am indecisive at this yet. BTW, (a maybe naive analysis follows) I think that ETH and BTC are direct competitors (like XRP & BTC in the past) but on the other hand XMR & BTC are more of a good pair. I mean, it is of XMRs best interest 1) BTC adoption to increase as much as possible and people use XMR as laundry, 2) XMR should not become No1 to draw attention. There is an interesting paper somewhere in the internet on how the Alpha male and the lowest ones in the pyramid suffer the most stress. The best position to hold is actually No2, all the stress at No1 and you still enjoy big rewards from being the second in rank. Who would you rather be, Putin or Medvedev? On the other hand (win win for XMR) if Bitcoin goes bust, XMR is the next most logical substitute for it (in terms of store of value, decentralisation etc). Actually it may be best couple with ETH (that will most probably become the new King) than with BTC. That said I agree with Anonymint that Monero is not at all perfect but good enough. Regarding his fundamental analysis on the other ones, I won't argue but there are a LOT of worthless stocks that are not worth currently valued at 0$ in the stock market. I think all of these coins are way better choices to invest than in 90% of the stocks in NYSE/NASDAQ. |
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bitebits
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Flippin' burgers since 1163.
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March 06, 2016, 12:26:32 PM |
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If 0.0034 was the top of this rally, expect lower lows though...
I think it is a better measurement calculating Monero's value in USD for example. Bitcoin does not yet have a stable value. If Monero's market cap remains 10 million USD this year, but Bitcoin goes to 10 billion USD. Does that mean a lower low for Monero? Good point, I am indecisive at this yet. BTW, (a maybe naive analysis follows) I think that ETH and BTC are direct competitors (like XRP & BTC in the past) but on the other hand XMR & BTC are more of a good pair. I mean, it is of XMRs best interest 1) BTC adoption to increase as much as possible and people use XMR as laundry, 2) XMR should not become No1 to draw attention. There is an interesting paper somewhere in the internet on how the Alpha male and the lowest ones in the pyramid suffer the most stress. The best position to hold is actually No2, all the stress at No1 and you still enjoy big rewards from being the second in rank. Who would you rather be, Putin or Medvedev?On the other hand (win win for XMR) if Bitcoin goes bust, XMR is the next most logical substitute for it (in terms of store of value, decentralisation etc). Actually it may be best couple with ETH (that will most probably become the new King) than with BTC. That said I agree with Anonymint that Monero is not at all perfect but good enough. Regarding his fundamental analysis on the other ones, I won't argue but there are a LOT of worthless stocks that are not worth currently valued at 0$ in the stock market. I think all of these coins are way better choices to invest than in 90% of the stocks in NYSE/NASDAQ. Good point, I am indecisive at this yet  . Regarding the Alpha male and stress paper, I definitely think Monero has benefited from basically existing outside the pecking order for some time. It gave the devs time to study the stress of Bitcoin and find long term solutions: In a study of male savanna baboons, alpha males exhibited high levels of testosterone and stress. This stress and testosterone over a long period of time can lead to decreased fitness. The lowest ranking males in the hierarchy also demonstrated high stress levels, suggesting that it is the beta males that gain the most fitness, avoiding stress while still maintaining some of reproductive and nutritional benefits of moderate rank. |
- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett - Pay any Bitcoin address privately with a little help of Monero. |
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dEBRUYNE
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Merit: 1141
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March 06, 2016, 12:33:08 PM
Last edit: March 06, 2016, 12:58:08 PM by dEBRUYNE |
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If 0.0034 was the top of this rally, expect lower lows though...
I think it is a better measurement calculating Monero's value in USD for example. Bitcoin does not yet have a stable value. If Monero's market cap remains 10 million USD this year, but Bitcoin goes to 10 billion USD. Does that mean a lower low for Monero? Good point, I am indecisive at this yet. BTW, (a maybe naive analysis follows) I think that ETH and BTC are direct competitors (like XRP & BTC in the past) but on the other hand XMR & BTC are more of a good pair. I mean, it is of XMRs best interest 1) BTC adoption to increase as much as possible and people use XMR as laundry, 2) XMR should not become No1 to draw attention. There is an interesting paper somewhere in the internet on how the Alpha male and the lowest ones in the pyramid suffer the most stress. The best position to hold is actually No2, all the stress at No1 and you still enjoy big rewards from being the second in rank. Who would you rather be, Putin or Medvedev?On the other hand (win win for XMR) if Bitcoin goes bust, XMR is the next most logical substitute for it (in terms of store of value, decentralisation etc). Actually it may be best couple with ETH (that will most probably become the new King) than with BTC. That said I agree with Anonymint that Monero is not at all perfect but good enough. Regarding his fundamental analysis on the other ones, I won't argue but there are a LOT of worthless stocks that are not worth currently valued at 0$ in the stock market. I think all of these coins are way better choices to invest than in 90% of the stocks in NYSE/NASDAQ. Good point, I am indecisive at this yet . Regarding the Alpha male and stress paper, I definitely think Monero has benefited from basically existing outside the pecking order for some time. It gave the devs time to study the stress of Bitcoin and find long term solutions:In a study of male savanna baboons, alpha males exhibited high levels of testosterone and stress. This stress and testosterone over a long period of time can lead to decreased fitness. The lowest ranking males in the hierarchy also demonstrated high stress levels, suggesting that it is the beta males that gain the most fitness, avoiding stress while still maintaining some of reproductive and nutritional benefits of moderate rank. Interestingly, the Cryptonote whitepaper already mentions a lot of deficiencies: https://cryptonote.org/whitepaper.pdf |
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bitebits
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March 06, 2016, 12:50:34 PM |
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Admittedly I never read the whitepaper thoroughly, which I should and will before making such statements. Thanks for link. |
- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett - Pay any Bitcoin address privately with a little help of Monero. |
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thelibertycap
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March 06, 2016, 02:14:23 PM |
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new all time high volume on poloniex, last time it set such a record was 3 weeks ago
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alinda
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March 06, 2016, 03:14:03 PM |
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$100 is fair value for monero
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TrueCryptonaire
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Activity: 1092
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March 06, 2016, 05:03:12 PM |
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I can confirm, that there are short sellers now in the markets. All my Moneros available for lending are been taken, and I am not giving out loans at minimum rates. Quite largish short position now so there is not that much downside IMO. |
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rdnkjdi
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March 06, 2016, 05:29:44 PM |
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I can confirm, that there are short sellers now in the markets. All my Moneros available for lending are been taken, and I am not giving out loans at minimum rates. Quite largish short position now so there is not that much downside IMO. I can confirm. What are you charging for lending rates? I'm getting like .08% ... I've seen some evidence that polo manipulates the lending market |
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25hashcoin
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March 06, 2016, 05:32:03 PM |
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not a new & exciting coin like FCT, ETH, MAID This makes me want to buy more XMR. |
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TrueCryptonaire
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March 06, 2016, 05:35:02 PM |
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I can confirm, that there are short sellers now in the markets. All my Moneros available for lending are been taken, and I am not giving out loans at minimum rates. Quite largish short position now so there is not that much downside IMO. I can confirm. What are you charging for lending rates? I'm getting like .08% ... I've seen some evidence that polo manipulates the lending market If you look at btc markets, you feel inclined to deposit btc when you see the daily rate is 1.0 %. Once your coins appear, behold the market rate is around 0.4-0.5 %.. For XMR I aim to get at least the daily inflation rate which is sligthly below 0.1 % per day.. Some loans I have managed to get almost 0.13 % although. The higher rate, the longer term I can go. |
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dEBRUYNE
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March 06, 2016, 05:38:04 PM |
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I can confirm, that there are short sellers now in the markets. All my Moneros available for lending are been taken, and I am not giving out loans at minimum rates. Quite largish short position now so there is not that much downside IMO. I suspect a lot of shorters dumped into that pretty sizeable wall @ 280k (it was around 26-27k total). It seems they are desperately trying to protect that level now with new shorts that are either market dumped or put up in the asks. |
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dEBRUYNE
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March 06, 2016, 06:48:14 PM |
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twistelaar
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March 06, 2016, 07:26:50 PM |
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I know there a lot of people who will say moon or something else, but what is a realistic price prediction for XMR with 3 till 9 months from now? thanks!
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GingerAle
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March 06, 2016, 07:30:37 PM |
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I know there a lot of people who will say moon or something else, but what is a realistic price prediction for XMR with 3 till 9 months from now? thanks!
realistically? 3 months = $10 9 months = $100 |
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rpietila
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March 06, 2016, 07:33:19 PM |
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I know there a lot of people who will say moon or something else, but what is a realistic price prediction for XMR with 3 till 9 months from now? thanks!
realistically? 3 months = $10 9 months = $100 For the first 1.5 years, Bitcoin also did not go anywhere at all. Then it rose 640000% in less than a year. For XMR, it would mean going to $5000 and higher this year. |
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