Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[moneyForjam]

I'm predicting lots of rocket pictures soon

[1713522380]

1713522380

[1713522380]

1713522380

[Vin]

I'm predicting lots of rocket pictures soon

In which direction? 

[STT]

Gold is isolated from direct factors of economic growth but silver is an industrial metal

Gold is an industrial metal too. It is inside of almost every electronic device there is.

Yep but modern manufacturing doesnt require alot of gold apparently, its become far less though I should look for a source.

Heres a couple of pie charts, showing how silver is almost like an oppisite in its industrial emphasis.   In a way its good to have solid uses but also it provides interference to the price when recession occurs




We're back above the MA blue line for BTC momentum, its flat but generally seems constructive with higher lows.   Sideways after a fall can surprise some by effectively being a positive I find, still hear people being negative when its not going down. 

[JayJuanGee]

but we did go to the moon right?
i mean 20K is not bad right?

No, it wasn't too bad. It allowed for many people to finally gain some form of financial independence. However, minnows like me need it to go to $100000 USD. I long for the day that I can tell my employer good bye.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPrSVkTRb24

No Moon

20K crap

my coins are easily worth over a million each

have to sell when you have to sell though.


When we can collectively devalue fiat dollars as far as we can go, bitcoin will be easily over 1 million.

No-one can stop the btc train

CCMF

Personally, I believe that it is NOT wise to play "all or nothing" strategies with your bitcoin investment, even if you have a strong conviction that each BTC is worth $1million.  It is much safer to cash out of your BTC incrementally on the way up, and to play it safe, rather than to stick with your convictions that BTC is going to be priced at $1million and perhaps end up either losing too much of your investment, or your psychology or panic selling on the way down rather than on the way up.  

I think that incremental selling of small amounts of BTC on the way up is better than betting too much on too high and remaining filled with hopium rather than practicalities.  

Let me provide an illustration.

Hypothetically, let's say that you have about 10 BTC that you acquired at the current price at around $7,500 (which would be a $75k investment), and you are generally bullish about the long term prospects of bitcoin while remaining somewhat skittish and skeptical about whether upwards BTC price movements are going to be sustainable.

You can decide whatever formula that you like for cashing out of your BTC in an incremental manner, but hypothetically, if you chose to cash out 5% of your BTC for every 50% that BTC prices go up, then you would be doing pretty good at various price points.

It would play out something like this:

With BTC at $25k you would still have 9.025BTC worth about $228k and $25k in cash.

With BTC at $57k you would still have 8.14BTC worth about $464k and $64k in cash.

With BTC at $85k you would still have 7.7BTC worth about $661k and $97.5k in cash.

With BTC at $128k you would still have 7.35BTC worth about $942k and $144k in cash.

With BTC at $288k you would still have 6.63BTC worth about $1.9million and $307k in cash.

With BTC at $432k you would still have 6.3BTC worth about $2.7million and $444k in cash.

With BTC at $973k you would still have 5.69BTC worth about $5.5million and $914k in cash.

The above sets of numbers assume that you do nothing else with your BTC investment, except for cash out 5% of your BTC value at the various BTC price points of 50% BTC price appreciation each time; however, you could be more active and reinvest some or all of your cashed out money on likely inevitable BTC price dips or you could choose differing increments to lock in your BTC profits... for example taking out 1% for every 10% BTC price increase.  

More frequent profit taking will not decrease the amounts of your profits dramatically while it provides some peace of mind to pull out BTC profits more regularly and sooner (rather than waiting for what might not happen).  You can play around with variations of incrementalism up the BTC price ladder in order to figure out a comfortable increment that works for you on a personal level.. rather than holding out for $1million per BTC.. which might not happen before you are dead (hate to be so morbid, but that is the truth of the matter).

The main point that I am attempting to make is to suggest that each of us should make a plan that is good for ourselves, and tweak our plans in such a way that is good for ourselves and still a reasonable plan that helps us to enjoy our BTC profits on the way UP (which BTC continues to seem to have decent chances of continuing to go UP, and having a plan will help each of us to deal with such UPPITY BTC prices at price points that each of us predetermine and can tweak at our own complete and full discretion).

Edit:  By the way, I understand that each of us might not be able to buy 10BTC at $7,500 or have that kind of BTC investment starting point, but each of us can surely work a similar formula with smaller BTC investment amounts and also continue to invest into BTC in order to attempt to reach our goals (employing dollar cost averaging), without gambling too much of our assets in order to attempt to achieve our goals (or to defeat our purposes by gambling and losing)

[Anon136]

I'm predicting lots of rocket pictures soon

In which direction? 

What like this?



I hope it's not that kind of rocket.

[ThePunisher49X]

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again.

[infofront]

bitcoin just had a 14.7% difficulty change upwards. that's the biggest since january. there sure is a lot of firepower out there somewhere.

The difficulty increased by 634 billion which is the largest increase in the history of bitcoin. The increase in this period alone is nearly equal to the entire network difficulty 1 year ago.

It probably has something to do with this:

https://adclair.com/gmo-introduced-a-new-miner-that-will-take-the-market-from-bitmane/
https://twitter.com/ynakamura56/status/1003908868114509824


Or this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3359468.20;topicseen (S11's)

Bitcoin has become a war

Yeah, it became a war about 7 years ago.

[shahzadafzal]

What like this?

https://fat.gfycat.com/WeightyTautDeinonychus.gif

I hope it's not that kind of rocket.

Ohh hell no no no...!!!

[infofront]

but we did go to the moon right?
i mean 20K is not bad right?

No, it wasn't too bad. It allowed for many people to finally gain some form of financial independence. However, minnows like me need it to go to $100000 USD. I long for the day that I can tell my employer good bye.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPrSVkTRb24

No Moon

20K crap

my coins are easily worth over a million each

have to sell when you have to sell though.


When we can collectively devalue fiat dollars as far as we can go, bitcoin will be easily over 1 million.

No-one can stop the btc train

CCMF

Personally, I believe that it is not wise to play "all or nothing" with your bitcoins, even if you have a strong conviction that BTC is worth $1million each.  It is much safer to cash out of your BTC incrementally, and to play it safe, rather than to stick with your convictions that BTC is going to be priced at $1million and perhaps end up either losing too much of your investment, or your psychology or selling on the way down rather than on the way up.  

I think that incremental selling of small amounts of BTC on the way up is better than betting too much on too high.  Let me provide an illustration.

Hypothetically, let's say that you have about 10 BTC that you acquired at the current price at around $7,500 (which would be a $75k investment), and you are generally bullish about the long term prospects of bitcoin while remaining somewhat skittish and skeptical about whether upwards BTC price movements are going to be sustainable.

You can decide whatever formula that you like for cashing out of your BTC in an incremental manner, but hypothetically, if you chose to cash out 5% of your BTC for every 50% that BTC prices go up, then you would be doing pretty good at various price points.

It would play out something like this:

With BTC at $25k you would still have 9.025BTC worth about $228k and $25k in cash.

With BTC at $57k you would still have 8.14BTC worth about $464k and $64k in cash.

With BTC at $85k you would still have 7.7BTC worth about $661k and $97.5k in cash.

With BTC at $128k you would still have 7.35BTC worth about $942k and $144k in cash.

With BTC at $288k you would still have 6.63BTC worth about $1.9million and $307k in cash.

With BTC at $432k you would still have 6.3BTC worth about $2.7million and $444k in cash.

With BTC at $973k you would still have 5.69BTC worth about $5.5million and $914k in cash.

The above sets of numbers assume that you do nothing else with your BTC investment, except for cash out 5% of your BTC value at the various BTC price points of 50% BTC price appreciation each time; however, you could be more active and reinvest some or all of your cashed out money on likely inevitable BTC price dips or you could choose differing increments to lock in your BTC profits... for example taking out 1% for every 10% BTC price increase.  

More frequent profit taking will not decrease the amounts of your profits dramatically while it provides some peace of mind to pull out BTC profits more regularly and sooner (rather than waiting for what might not happen).  You can play around with variations of incrementalism up the BTC price ladder in order to figure out a comfortable increment that works for you on a personal level.. rather than holding out for $1million per BTC.. which might not happen before you are dead (hate to be so morbid, but that is the truth of the matter).

The main point that I am attempting to make is to suggest that each of us should make a plan that is good for ourselves, and tweak our plans in such a way that is good for ourselves and still a reasonable plan that helps us to enjoy our BTC profits on the way UP (which BTC continues to seem to have decent chances of continuing to go UP, and having a plan will help each of us to deal with such UPPITY BTC prices at price points that each of us predetermine and can tweak at our own complete and full discretion).

Edit:  By the way, I understand that each of us might not be able to buy 10BTC at $7,500 or have that kind of BTC investment starting point, but each of us can surely work a similar formula with smaller BTC investment amounts and also continue to invest into BTC in order to attempt to reach our goals (employing dollar cost averaging), without gambling too much of our assets in order to attempt to achieve our goals (or to defeat our purposes by gambling and losing)

That sounds similar to the Bitcoin Savings Plan

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

That sounds similar to the Bitcoin Savings Plan

Actually, that is a nice link infofront.  The investment and cashing out strategy looks to be fairly similar to mine - except for that strategy seems to cash out 10% for every 100% price rise.  My above example uses a similar proportion of cashing out 5% for every 50% price rise.  Further, if you know that in late 2013 Rpietila had a BTCtalk thread on the topic too, and Rpietila was suggesting to cash out 10% for every 100% price rise.

In about 2014/2015 I constructed a similar strategy to rpietila; however, I did not want to wait for BTC prices to double before cashing out 10%, so I played around with much smaller variations that are similar in their proportions, and I tend to play around with cashing out 1% for every 10% rise in price and I even play in smaller increments, too while keeping the cashing out proportions approximately the same or sometimes playing around a bit with the proportions if I am in more of a gambling mood.    I believe that there were periods of time that I was cashing out higher proportions of BTC because I already realized that there was a pretty damned high likelihood that I would be using all or part of the cashed out money to buy back in, so I did not mind cashing out a bit more in order to attempt to more or less maintain a 10/1 ratio by accounting for my anticipated buying back.

It is true that some peeps are going to be comfortable to wait for 100% price rises before cashing out, but I think that such expectations can become a bit difficult to put into practice because for some other peeps it is going to be difficult to wait that amount of a BTC price appreciation before cashing out.. especially when peeps are already scared that BTC prices are going to reverse back down.  

My personal approach has been to use such an incremental cashing out strategy to reinvest decent portions of what I had cashed out in order to buy back into BTC with dips.  So far, I have found that even with reinvesting part of the value that I have cashed out, my incremental cashing out and reinvesting strategy tends to generate a decent amount of cashed out fiat (and perhaps my feeling even excessive amounts of fiat) in order for me to feel personally comfortable that I have plenty of fiat to work with to buy more BTC on dips or just to walk away with that fiat in the event that I chose not to reinvest it.   On the other side of the coin, I also feel comfortable with the amount of BTC that I am retaining in my holdings because I will always have a moderate amount and I am never cashing out more than a certain proportion that I had previously established as acceptable for me (which in my full and complete discretion, I can re-think the matter and change those amounts and increments at any time too).

[jbreher]

I will concede that perhaps I am a bit resentful of profits made by others during this kind of seemingly low volatility

And you castigated me for setting my interval at 'such a low value' (i.e., less than the interval you chose). Well, you reap what you sow.

[infofront]

[edited out]

That sounds similar to the Bitcoin Savings Plan

Actually, that is a nice link infofront.  The investment and cashing out strategy looks to be fairly similar to mine - except for that strategy seems to cash out 10% for every 100% price rise.  My above example uses a similar proportion of cashing out 5% for every 50% price rise.  Further, if you know that in late 2013 Rpietila had a BTCtalk thread on the topic too, and Rpietila was suggesting to cash out 10% for every 100% price rise.

In about 2014/2015 I constructed a similar strategy to rpietila; however, I did not want to wait for BTC prices to double before cashing out 10%, so I played around with much smaller variations that are similar in their proportions, and I tend to play around with cashing out 1% for every 10% rise in price and I even play in smaller increments, too while keeping the cashing out proportions approximately the same or sometimes playing around a bit with the proportions if I am in more of a gambling mood.    I believe that there were periods of time that I was cashing out higher proportions of BTC because I already realized that there was a pretty damned high likelihood that I would be using all or part of the cashed out money to buy back in, so I did not mind cashing out a bit more in order to attempt to more or less maintain a 10/1 ratio by accounting for my anticipated buying back.

It is true that some peeps are going to be comfortable to wait for 100% price rises before cashing out, but I think that such expectations can become a bit difficult to put into practice because for some other peeps it is going to be difficult to wait that amount of a BTC price appreciation before cashing out.. especially when peeps are already scared that BTC prices are going to reverse back down.  

My personal approach has been to use such an incremental cashing out strategy to reinvest decent portions of what I had cashed out in order to buy back into BTC with dips.  So far, I have found that even with reinvesting part of the value that I have cashed out, my incremental cashing out and reinvesting strategy tends to generate a decent amount of cashed out fiat (and perhaps my feeling even excessive amounts of fiat) in order for me to feel personally comfortable that I have plenty of fiat to work with to buy more BTC on dips or just to walk away with that fiat in the event that I chose not to reinvest it.   On the other side of the coin, I also feel comfortable with the amount of BTC that I am retaining in my holdings because I will always have a moderate amount and I am never cashing out more than a certain proportion that I had previously established as acceptable for me (which in my full and complete discretion, I can re-think the matter and change those amounts and increments at any time too).

Yeah that website was based on Rpietila's strategy. He came up with that when we nearly hit $1,200, if memory serves me right. He was having a manic episode and was likely too aggressive with his pricing predictions.

Your plan actually makes more sense.

[JayJuanGee]

I will concede that perhaps I am a bit resentful of profits made by others during this kind of seemingly low volatility

And you castigated me for setting my interval at 'such a low value' (i.e., less than the interval you chose). Well, you reap what you sow.

Thanks for making me laugh jbreher dee bear.

It seems to me that both of us recognize a certain level of balance that comes with choosing our increments, choosing our amounts and choosing whether to leverage.   I am recognizing that some folks are going to make a lot more money when they gamble and they get the direction right, but my concession does not result in me changing my strategy.

Perhaps, there is a bit of a feeling that the grass is greener on the other side, but really, I am not going to change my strategy.... because I already know that I cannot both have my cake and eat it too... I have to chose something that works for me, and it does work for me.. even though I might be a little jealous when I see that others are making profits from risky strategies.

Jbreher.. dee bear... you and I have already pretty much battled out this topic, so I am a bit confused (to the extent that I am not humored) that you want to beat up on this topic some more?

I will concede that trading $250 increments in the $6k to $10k price arena makes more sense than it would in the $14k to $17k price range, so even I brought down my trading increments based upon where the price is currently... Adaptation to new conditions, right?  Neither of us is stagnant, or at least I hope not.  We have to adjust with the changing conditions of the market, even though we might be tweaking here and there rather than making large changes... We are on a similar page in regards to ongoing tweaking strategies and attempting to learn from mistakes, no?

[jbreher]

I will concede that perhaps I am a bit resentful of profits made by others during this kind of seemingly low volatility

And you castigated me for setting my interval at 'such a low value' (i.e., less than the interval you chose). Well, you reap what you sow.

I will concede that trading $250 increments in the $6k to $10k price arena makes more sense than it would in the $14k to $17k price range, so even I brought down my trading increments based upon where the price is currently... Adaptation to new conditions, right?  Neither of us is stagnant, or at least I hope not.  We have to adjust with the changing conditions of the market, even though we might be tweaking here and there rather than making large changes... We are on a similar page in regards to ongoing tweaking strategies and attempting to learn from mistakes, no?

Adjusting to the reality on the ground can make sense.

Note that 'castigated' seems an accurate depiction of your past pronouncements on my strategy. (this viewed in ponderation of other peoples' presently pointing out your posting proclivities may provide probability to give your person pause)

We're currently in a $125 range for me. After we go up for a fair bit, we'll be in what is currently my $250 interval range. Which presently continues well past previous ATH. I consider any above previous ATH to be subject to interval change. These standing sell orders above previous ATH are all built from coin-side profits built on earlier transactions. When a trade unit sized profit is made, it gets entered as a sell on the top of the ladder.

If I were a more diligent sort, I'd build my interval upon a sliding percentage scale. But such would be more labor intensive to manage.

There is also a fair bit to be said for sticking with the parameters once chosen, as that makes the trading automatic. C'est la guerre.

[mymenace]

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again.

Quite the opposite actually

If you knew what he knew, you would think you are crazy.

These behaviors are consistent with people under Constant Intelligence Attacks by national spy agencies

John Lennon
Julian Assange
Kim Dotcom
John McAffee
Elon Musk

[JayJuanGee]

I will concede that perhaps I am a bit resentful of profits made by others during this kind of seemingly low volatility

And you castigated me for setting my interval at 'such a low value' (i.e., less than the interval you chose). Well, you reap what you sow.

I will concede that trading $250 increments in the $6k to $10k price arena makes more sense than it would in the $14k to $17k price range, so even I brought down my trading increments based upon where the price is currently... Adaptation to new conditions, right?  Neither of us is stagnant, or at least I hope not.  We have to adjust with the changing conditions of the market, even though we might be tweaking here and there rather than making large changes... We are on a similar page in regards to ongoing tweaking strategies and attempting to learn from mistakes, no?

Adjusting to the reality on the ground can make sense.

Note that 'castigated' seems an accurate depiction of your past pronouncements on my strategy. (this viewed in ponderation of other peoples' presently pointing out your posting proclivities may provide probability to give your person pause)

No. It is not going to give me "personal pause."  I was asking you about your strategy, and I suggested that your $250 price increments were too small when BTC prices were moving around so much and they were about in the $14k arena.  $250 increments is not bad at this price range and with our current lack of price movement.

We're currently in a $125 range for me.

Yes, you like to play your increments more tightly than me.  We established that.

After we go up for a fair bit, we'll be in what is currently my $250 interval range. Which presently continues well past previous ATH.

Yes.. my increments are greater, and it seems that if prices get close to $20k, then my increments become over $1k.. so yeah, as the price goes up, I am hoping to trade less and less... which causes more of a retirement from smaller swing trades, perhaps?  Will see how it works out.

I consider any above previous ATH to be subject to interval change. These standing sell orders above previous ATH are all built from coin-side profits built on earlier transactions. When a trade unit sized profit is made, it gets entered as a sell on the top of the ladder.

If I were a more diligent sort, I'd build my interval upon a sliding percentage scale. But such would be more labor intensive to manage.

There is also a fair bit to be said for sticking with the parameters once chosen, as that makes the trading automatic. C'est la guerre.

Fair enough... but I also give a certain extra slippage to certain price points, that will cause my increments to become greater in areas of anticipated low resistance, but I learned my lesson when I did not sell enough when the price jumped from $280 to $505 to continue to sell on the way up therefore, if I anticipate possible extra slippage, then I just make my increments greater in order to account for that and to take advantage of that likelihood.....

[Paashaas]

Just Hodl, the next 2 halvings will be epic.

[ThePunisher49X]

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again.

Quite the opposite actually

If you knew what he knew, you would think you are crazy.

These behaviors are consistent with people under Constant Intelligence Attacks by national spy agencies

John Lennon
Julian Assange
Kim Dotcom
John McAffee
Elon Musk

Well then ok.
But is hijacking a tank sane behaviour?
https://youtu.be/jFnmTgi0tOw

He heard bitcoin price is on the move.

[mymenace]

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again.

Quite the opposite actually

If you knew what he knew, you would think you are crazy.

These behaviors are consistent with people under Constant Intelligence Attacks by national spy agencies

John Lennon
Julian Assange
Kim Dotcom
John McAffee
Elon Musk

Well then ok.
But is hijacking a tank sane behaviour?
https://youtu.be/jFnmTgi0tOw

He heard bitcoin price is on the move.

Yes

Who would not want to hijack a tank, you gonna get a floggin when you get caught though

If you have the money for the police violations

Happy days




Running people over with it and acting in a dangerous manner thats insane




By the way any chance this person was under FBI or CIA surveillance for years on end

This being the point I was making.

[ThePunisher49X]

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again.

Quite the opposite actually

If you knew what he knew, you would think you are crazy.

These behaviors are consistent with people under Constant Intelligence Attacks by national spy agencies

John Lennon
Julian Assange
Kim Dotcom
John McAffee
Elon Musk

Well then ok.
But is hijacking a tank sane behaviour?
https://youtu.be/jFnmTgi0tOw

He heard bitcoin price is on the move.

Yes

Who would not want to hijack a tank

If you have the money for the police violations

Happy days


Running people over with it and acting in a dangerous manner thats insane

By the way any chance this person was under FBI or CIA surveillance for years on end

This being the point I was making.

So Mcafee is?
Why would a person being under fbi or cia surveillance be acting this way?
https://imgur.com/a/xCkks6i