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3321  Economy / Economics / Re: Why I think Bitcoin will not become an national currency on: January 19, 2013, 09:42:58 PM
1) Bitcoin will never be a national currency for the same reason that no country will return to the Gold standard.  It is for a completely different reason

2) As the value of BTC rises it will be held by more and more people.  By your logic nobody should buy/trade/acquire any more BTC.  Half of them are already held by a tiny (globally speaking) number of people and thus outside would be better off not buying them and insider would be better off just selling them.  Of course there will never be a scenario where Bitcoin goes to being held by thousands to being held by billions.  The thousands will sell to tens of thousands who will sell to hundreds of thousands who will sell to millions.  At the point where BTC had a large enough coinsupply to be useful for even a small nation the coins wouldn't be held by thousands they would be held by tens of millions.

3) Money isn't wealth, money is an accounting system.  The rich hold a negligible rounding error of their total wealth in cash.  The poor would benefit from a currency which isn't continually debased.

Of course I don't think Bitcoin will ever become a national currency however I don't think that provides any meaningful limit on adoption.  Bitcoin could be used someday (in theory) by nation states as a strategic reserve (like Gold Bullion).

I agree. What Bitcoin does extremely well is handle small international transactions over the Internet so it has a very good chance of becoming the de-facto currency of e-commerce and small international funds transfer (such as migrant workers sending funds to their families). Could it become a reserve currency in the future? This is possible but not until the world's central banks are run by people who today are in their early 20's or teenagers. So for example take Ben Bernanke's age 59 subtract 20. This gives 39 years minimum before Bitcoin has a chance of being recognized as a reserve currency. If one uses Alan Greenspan as an example then it is more like 59 years.
3322  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mega dont accept bitcoins the official cry thread on: January 19, 2013, 07:46:29 PM
also u can add that if you lose your password you lose the account

That is a given and by design if one wants user side encryption.
true but will understand that the average joe ? i dont think joe will get the 2048 bit rsa stuff

he does not need to. but knowing that you loose everything if you loose your password will indeed keep some users away.

If one is using the site for backup this is a feature and not a concern. Given the history of Mega, I would be more concerned about some government shutting down the servers than me loosing the password. This kind of government action is not a concern if:
1) The cloud is used for backup only
2) The data is encrypted and only the user has the key.
3323  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mega dont accept bitcoins the official cry thread on: January 19, 2013, 07:11:34 PM
also u can add that if you lose your password you lose the account

That is a given and by design if one wants user side encryption.
3324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mega dont accept bitcoins the official cry thread on: January 19, 2013, 07:05:18 PM
What happens when you select one?
you pay for the account ? you know the normal thing do to
Are you being intentionally obtuse?

The site is, which regardless of the payment methods accepted is a big no in my books. They expect the user to provide information and agree to an agreement before informing the user on the payment methods accepted.
3325  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is the most dangerous item to short. on: January 19, 2013, 06:39:25 PM
When it comes to shorting Bitcoin one must mention Pirate and his huge BTC short position. Of course he defaulted on his contracts when the short squeeze was applied.

Hint: To those long on Bitcoin. Take delivery.

I thought long bitcoin always means delivery, otherwise you are just long some one's bitcoin denominated promissory note? Not like dollar, since all dollars in banks are FDIC insured, and implicit backed by federal reserve (if banks could not use their asset to secure loan from market, then federal reserve will take the asset as collateral and issue loans), so all dollars in banks are dollars, not some chase dollar note or citi dollar note.

Most people who long bitcoin with Pirate are just long pirateBTC note, which probably should be rated as a junk note with grade C, his note should be less than 1 BTC if correctly priced,so by entering the price on par (pay 1BTC to get pirateBTC), you are already losing money before he defaulted,

Of course the creditworthiness of the shorts is critical here; however this is closely related to the market. Pirate is the perfect example. When the BTC / USD rate was falling at a rate greater than 7% a week as was the case in the fall of 2011 Pirate had no problem meeting his obligations and his notes were good, it is when the market turned in 2012 that the short squeeze was applied and this massive short defaulted. The Pirate investors who took delivery ahead of the default and squeezed the short made money.

The sure way for the longs to squeeze the shorts is to take delivery and this works in any market.
3326  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is the most dangerous item to short. on: January 19, 2013, 06:06:08 PM
When it comes to shorting Bitcoin one must mention Pirate and his huge BTC short position. Of course he defaulted on his contracts when the short squeeze was applied.

Hint: To those long on Bitcoin. Take delivery.
3327  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: vote up! "Users can donate digital currency" - Ubuntu brainstorm on: January 18, 2013, 09:44:11 PM
This is a great idea but it needs to be expanded to include other services from Canonical including the sales of music, paid software, Ubuntu One and purchases from the dash.
3328  Economy / Speculation / Re: Attack of the Empty set on: January 18, 2013, 05:44:25 AM
Actually there are enough Bitcoins in the Ask to satisfy all the USD in the Bid, at a price of course.
3329  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: I questioned the "Bitcoin dev team" (Andresen & Co.) on complying with AML laws. on: January 17, 2013, 03:44:18 PM
If you take the time to look at actual AML requirements, you will find it is non-trivial to implement them in the Bitcoin protocol. Bitcoin is essentially a sophisticted public transaction record. To include the required sender information would violate any privacy legislation in place. Governments are likely reluctant to crack down of Bitcoin for two reasons:
  • they don't want to give it legitimacy in the eyes of the general public.
  • They can't really criminalize it without criminalizing accounting software that does essentially the same thing.

If we assume the Bitcoin is a currency, and all nodes must (or even want to) register as Money Service Businesses: the Bitcoin protocol still can't comply with the Guidelines as written. Nodes would somehow need the capacity to do the following:
  • Report transactions comming from outside of Canada totalling over $10,000 CAD from the same entity within a 24 hour period.
  • The above should be simple since all nodes would be required to include originator information in all outgoing transactions. This incudes: "name, address and principal business or occupation, (and) date of birth (or) the incorporation number and place of incorporation."
  • Even if the block-chain can handle the bloat, the nodes in each jurisdiction will have different reporting rules. If the originator, winning miner, and recipient are all in the same country, no reporting may be necessary. In Canada, Government departments are exempt from reporting rules.
  • If the originator is on the list of terrorists or terrorist organizations, many nodes may be forced to not relay the transaction to other nodes.
  • If the transaction is over $100,000, you have to check if the transaction involves a Politically Exposed Foreign Person. This will also vary by jurisdiction. Manual intervention is also required within 14 days. AML-complaint nodes may refuse to relay such large transactions to avoid the extra work that can not be automated.
The above list involves bloating the block-chain, removing pseudonymity, subscribing to at least two databases, and balkanizing the network. In short, it would be impossible for the developers to slip this one by the vast majority of bitcoin users. In no small part because these changes would require careful user configuration to work correctly for their jusridiction.



It is a lot simpler. Treat Bitcoin as if it were cash and impose the requirements on the sender and recipient of the transaction in their respective jurisdictions.
3330  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 17, 2013, 07:34:43 AM
bitinstant out of reserves for btc-e

Consequences will never be the same!   Shocked

But what exactly happens because of this?  Does their volume merely move to other exchanges?

someone educate me.  what does bitinstant have to do with btc-e?

bitinstant allows people to send USD to and from MtGox and BTC-e.
they do this for all of the exchanges.

Sell on Gox
transfer money
Buy on BTC-E
Repeat as needed
Profit Huh

for a %3.99 fee.

1.49% Bitinstant, 0.2% BTC-E, 0.6% (or less) MtGox. 2.29% is break even.
3331  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 17, 2013, 06:12:07 AM
bitinstant out of reserves for btc-e

Consequences will never be the same!   Shocked

But what exactly happens because of this?  Does their volume merely move to other exchanges?

someone educate me.  what does bitinstant have to do with btc-e?

bitinstant allows people to send USD to and from MtGox and BTC-e.
they do this for all of the exchanges.

Sell on Gox
transfer money
Buy on BTC-E
Repeat as needed
Profit Huh

I have seen a bigger spread on Virtex. Buy on Virtex after selling on Gox? Possible but I would want a 4% spread after factoring the CAD / USD rate in a stable or falling market.
3332  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Kim Dotcom Mansion: Press conference 2013-01-17 GMT on: January 17, 2013, 01:57:40 AM
One more thing...

The new Mega is going to start free and stay free for long enough to generate buzz and users.  Even if they pick BTC, the users wont be scrambling for it for a while. 

Is that your personal assumption or can you base it on some source?

Quote
We have raised sufficient funds to cover the launch, but we would like to provide Mega free of charge for as long as possible. If you would like to be part of the success story, please get in touch.
http://mega.co.nz/#/investors
3333  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Poll] How long until $1000 per 1 Bitcoin? on: January 16, 2013, 06:15:37 PM
If someone had offered you a piece of the internet back in the 1980's would you have invested? Probably not. Instead folks invested in ISP services like Compuserve. That's what is happening with Bitcoin. Folks are investing in mining rigs with much more than the 150M USD Bitcoin capitalization. So realistically, Bitcoin has a market cap of closer to 300M and is growing. When ASICs come out many miners will use the money they spend on electricity and buy bitcoins instead. Many more will get into the game and we'll see another surge in market cap.
The Internet in its very early stages was offered to AT&T in 1971 for free and they turned it down. http://www.cybertelecom.org/notes/internet_history70s.htm#att
3334  Economy / Speculation / Re: Impact of ASIC on price on: January 14, 2013, 05:22:06 PM
...

If the mining subsidy is such a small percentage of trading volume why is this issue a concern?


I have the same question.
3335  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Making Bitcoin usable in needy places on: January 13, 2013, 04:05:50 AM
Im sorry if this is a stupid question, but how can bitcoin help a country like those on the list above? I mean this with sencerity because I thinks its interesting. I was thinking that it could help those with what little they do have hide it, so it can never be taken from then. I guess it would be the safest way for them to protect there money.

Im really intrested In this so i guess the first step Is do some research on what issues plague the finicail part of there country or its economy and then look at bitcoin to see how it could help?


One example is foreign remittances from workers abroad to relatives back home. For example one may have a foreign worker in Canada sending say 200 USD a month to family in Haiti. This kind of remittance is a very significant part of the business of companies like Western Union and is also a major source of foreign exchange for places like Haiti, Kenya etc. Migrant worker funds transfer to family members is huge worldwide. Cut the money transfer fees down by using Bitcoin and this will have a direct impact not only on the family members involved but also on the local economy. 

I still remember waiting in line at the post office and could not avoid overhearing that the man in front of me was sending 70 CAD to Kenya. He was charged about 8 CAD for the money transfer. Ironically I was waiting in line to pick up the documents I needed for account verification at MtGox!
3336  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 13, 2013, 02:41:10 AM
Hey you wall experts here,

I was just looking at a 831 BTC bid wall at $14.25 USD which as the highest and only order there stood for about 10 mins with virtually no activity.  Then there was a flurry of relatively small trades at which point it was taken back to about $14.03.  Looking at the wall I had to assume, unlike 'safer' walls further back, that it was actually the intention of the trader that the order be sold.  So why would it be taken away?  I'd appreciate something that can help me make some sense of that one.

don't pay to much attention to walls...
just buy buy buy  Grin


i'm still holding my short but looks like cheap coins aren't getting any cheaper...

could be a nice short squeeze coming when 14.5 $ falls

The debt ceiling "crisis" and related political deadlock in the United States could easily set off a BTC buying panic. Just consider what happend to the BTC / USD price in the lead up to the last US debt ceiling crisis in 2011.
3337  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitcoin Millionaire Syndrome extreme Bitcoin speculation and Bitcoin Economy on: January 12, 2013, 01:53:26 AM
Logically the merchants should be thinking in the same way, and pricing their products in Bitcoins with a substantial discount compared to the fiat price.
Not only do they save on creditcard fees, but they also receive Bitcoins directly without having to touch any fiat.
The market should automatically adjust the price of things in Bitcoins to take into account the attractiveness of holding bitcoins over fiat.
So people who hold bitcoins can expect their bitcoins to be worth more, and also to be able to get things cheaper than everyone else.


Right it might be cheaper to accept bitcoins, like bitpay at 1%, but its also like 6% to change the currency to usd.

BitPay charges way less than 6% to convert to USD.

Sorry, I wasn't clear I guess, not 6% by bitpay, but for other exchanges. Not all transactions are via bitpay.

Edit: I just checked bitpays stats out, 1% transaction + 2.69 to cash to bank. 3.69% is a huge percentage. It might not seem like a lot, but if you do $100,000 with normal processors at 1.9% you're paying $1900 in fees, bitpay is $3,690 in fees. Which isn't completely terrible, just stating lowering prices just because accepted in bitcoin isn't logical.

It is 2.69% for USD payout or 0.99% for BTC payout https://bitpay.com/pricing.
3338  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitcoin Millionaire Syndrome extreme Bitcoin speculation and Bitcoin Economy on: January 12, 2013, 12:40:02 AM
Logically the merchants should be thinking in the same way, and pricing their products in Bitcoins with a substantial discount compared to the fiat price.
Not only do they save on creditcard fees, but they also receive Bitcoins directly without having to touch any fiat.
The market should automatically adjust the price of things in Bitcoins to take into account the attractiveness of holding bitcoins over fiat.
So people who hold bitcoins can expect their bitcoins to be worth more, and also to be able to get things cheaper than everyone else.


Right it might be cheaper to accept bitcoins, like bitpay at 1%, but its also like 6% to change the currency to usd.

BitPay charges way less than 6% to convert to USD.
3339  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitcoin Millionaire Syndrome extreme Bitcoin speculation and Bitcoin Economy on: January 11, 2013, 11:00:36 PM

True so I'm going to rent rooms in my flat starting march with dicount if someone will decide to pay in BTC

You don't happen to be in SW London do you?!

Around the same time I'm going to be looking for somewhere new to rent and was considering requesting a landlord to take Bitcoin on Craigslist.  I managed to persuade my current landlord to take one casascius 25BTC physical coin in part payment one month but he doesn't get it and will simply leave it in his safe for the foreseeable.  Better than nothing but ...  the whole of my rent monthly in bitcoin? - now that would be good.

Or maybe he does get it. It may even have something to do with the reason he managed to accumulate enough wealth to become a landlord in the first place. 
3340  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 11, 2013, 10:50:49 PM
every time i look at the chart i here this song in my head


Quote
Up up UP! upup UP UP UP!
Oh shit bitcoin's going
Up up UP! upup UP UP UP!
Up up UP! upup UP UP UP!
Up up UP! upup UP UP UP!
Oh shit their going!
Up up UP! upup UP UP UP!


There are still some coins left on Virtex below 14 CAD.
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