stop talking about 87 or 95, support is here now, don't miss your chance  It needs to test $100, and by testing I mean, cross it. Short term I would put a limit buy order in $96-$99 range, that is the safest. lol no. 100 will not be tested, not in 2 weeks not in 5 years. 120 support will reappear, once all you bulls are done being bearish  Not only was 100 USD "tested" but I bought at 92 USD on MTGox less than 48 hours after this post. PS: I am a long term bull on BTC. |
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stop talking about 87 or 95, support is here now, don't miss your chance It needs to test $100, and by testing I mean, cross it. Short term I would put a limit buy order in $96-$99 range, that is the safest. lol no. 100 will not be tested, not in 2 weeks not in 5 years. 120 support will reappear, once all you bulls are done being bearish There is of course the possibility that we see both 25 USD and 250000 USD per BTC within the next five years. |
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A low of say 40 USD or less and a high of say 10000 USD or more is quite possible.
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I would prefer to treat Bitcoin mining as a strict Bitcoin play especially where the bulk of the cost is the capital cost as is the case with an ASIC. Consider the capital cost of the mining equipment as part the BTC component of the portfolio and apply a depreciation rate to the equipment based on the change in difficulty. So if the difficulty doubles since one acquired the equipment then is value of the equipment in BTC terms is half.
This keeps the question of the exchange rate between BTC and a fiat currency out of the equation of whether a particular investment in mining equipment makes sense or not.
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stupid idea and not even possible given Bitcoin's design.
It's semi-possible. Other currencies have an official exchange rate but are also used for speculation. Likewise, precious metals have an "official" price but you can still trade them in a speculative manner. If you believe that Bitcoin won't stabilise without "someone" doing "something" then you need to consider "who" and "what". You also need to consider whether now is the appropriate time to try to stabilise Bitcoin. Are there enough people wanting to use Bitcoin as a currency and enough ways to use it as a currency right now to justify trying to stabilise it or are we years away from it being viable as a currency? You can't just ignore the fact that many people view Bitcoin primarily as a means of increasing their net worth and it's not especially useful for that purpose if it becomes a stable currency. If you drive out the speculators, is there enough momentum to sustain Bitcoin as a currency or have we not yet reached that critical mass? is the operative word here. The US Government did this with gold and the USD before 1971. |
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For me I didn't bother building up any resume or career path, so little job security here, though I'm sure I could always find a crappy sales job, though would not make me happy. I am very dependent on my capital for security. I think I have high skills in investing, but if I end up losing 50% of my capital to bitcoin, my confidence in that will be shaken.
At the moment no one depends on me but I want to start a family within 2-4 years. So let's say bitcoin becomes depressed again like in 2011 and I have averaged down into it, I will be at a loss, and supporting a family will become hard, though still possible, if I am being frugal.
... In response to your original strategy I see two fatal flaws. One is that in an adverse market it eventually leads to ruin. The other is that in an erratic and unpredictable market it will pit you against your own psychological responses endlessly. Eventually you will give in and trade or avoid trading because you cannot help yourself. Especially knowing that your system has the other flaw and that it is unknowable if you are getting close to ruin because of it. ... The danger here is rebalancing the portfolio too soon during a long bull or bear market that does not have a lot of fluctuations. The recent December 2012 - April 2013 bull run is among the worst for this kind of strategy, but for many other periods of the Bitcoin market this kind of strategy has a lot of merit. An erratic market that is going nowhere is ideal for this strategy. |
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This kind of strategy can work very well. To keep it simple consider the following portfolio 50% BTC 50% USD. A different ratio can be used depending on the comfort level. Keep most of the USD in say 30 day US Government T-Bills. Most of the BTC in a secure offline wallet. Keep a portion of the USD and BTC in an exchange say MtGox. The strategy is to profit from the fluctuations in the price so this works best during a market that is trading sideways with a lot of volatility. It is not the best during a long bull or bear run such as December 2012 - April 2013 or June 2011 - November 2011.
Now the key here is how long does one let the portfolio stay unbalanced during a bull or bear run? Waiting actually increases the risk but also the potential return. What I like about this strategy from a psychological point of view is that doing nothing, and not rebalancing, is actually the aggressive strategy.
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One needs someone with lots of BTC and USD to do this. What is been proposed here is in fact no different from the USD pegged to gold until Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. Why did Nixon close the gold window? Because the United States was running out of gold. I suspect that if Max Keiser and / or The Bitcoin Foundation try this they will suffer same fate as the United States did in 1971, and will have to close the Bitcoin window or run out of Bitcoin.
PS: If Max Keiser wishes to sell me some BTC for 100 USD per BTC when it is trading at 136 USD per BTC I am game.
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BTC loans using guns and ammo as collateral? So I lend some of my BTC to a gun shop in the United States and then foreclose on all the guns and ammo when the BTC / USD rate goes up and the gun shop goes bankrupt.?
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It really depends on the cost of the credit card transaction. At one extreme one has a customer with good credit that has a 1% cash back credit card doing a card present transaction with a large merchant. In this scenario the merchant may be paying 1.6% or less fee and with the customer getting 1% back the effective cost is under 0.6%. There is simply no way BitPay with Bitcoin can compete here.
In the other extreme we have customer with poor credit using a prepaid debit card (cost to the customer can be easily be 5-10% by the time load fees are factored in) doing a small online transaction with a "high risk" merchant who may end up paying 10% or more by the time all the fees are factored in. The effective cost here can easily be over 20%. BitPay with Bitcoin wins hands down here.
When either the customer or the merchant are "high risk" the cost can easily exceed 10% and again BitPay with Bitcoin wins hands down.
Now for in person transactions the "high risk" problem is eliminated by using cash, but online Bitcoin becomes the only cost effective option.
I have said it before and will say it again the low hanging fruit for Bitcoin has a FICO score in the US under 600 and more in the 350 range and this is a large market in the US alone that is growing fast. Guess what happens to your FICO score after a mortgage foreclosure?
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GNU/Linux. The bottom line is that if one wishes to use currencies, Bitcoin and Litecoin, whose entire security models depend upon software and hardware freedom, it only makes sense to use a Free Software operating system.
PS: I have not trusted Microsoft Windows for online fiat banking/credit card use since long before Bitcoin even existed for the very same reasons that concern the OP. Bitcoin and Litecoin only raise the ante by many orders of magnitude.
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Well, you do have to pay capital gains taxes.
Yeah if anything it will be over this and possibly Pirate@40. Pirateat40 will be indited by the US SEC Pirateat40 is a rather obvious candidate. As far as I can see pirateat40 has a lot more to worry about than just the SEC, including the IRS over witholding taxes, and yes FinCen over all sorts of money laundering offenses. Now as to the impact on the BTC / USD exchange rate of piratat40 in shackles and an orange jumpsuit that is anyone's guess. |
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No. There is actually a very strong argument against a crash as a result of the Avalon ASIC release in particular in the case of batch #3. Why? Because I would not be surprised if in many cases the BTC that the ASIC will produce have already been sold., and their owners are in many cases flush with fiat and effectively "short" BTC. They will look at their ASICs as a way to replace their BTC that were, in some cases, prematurely sold during the boom. On the other hand the GPU miners they displace had substantial electricity costs payable in fiat. The net effect can very well be less BTC hitting the market than before.
In short I would expect that the Avalon ASICs may end up in some of Bitcoin's strongest hands, or even in hands that are weak because they have to few BTC.
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Petition to bitcoin users: stop using apple products. +1 |
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I bet it gets more users than the Alexa rank shows. Alexa is such bs as a measure of traffic. Do you actually know anyone that has it installed? I do not, but that is not the point since it is a measure of relative traffic when comparing different websites. The more important question is: Is a user of thepiratebay.se more or less likely to install Alexa than say for example a user of cnn.com? The latter site is ranked at 76 http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/cnn.com. It is not as high as WordPress but I understand this is the second largest site that accepts bitcoin. |
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They got this right Russian
7) Использование Linux\Unix операционных систем значительно сокращает вероятность заражения компьютера зловредным ПО типа RAT\кейлогер.
English (Google Translation)
7) The use of Linux \ Unix operating systems greatly reduces the chance of infecting your computer malicious software such as RAT \ keylogger.
Now I have refused to enter any sensitive financial information, such a accessing online banking or using a credit card online on a Microsoft Windows computer since long before Bitcoin even existed, using GNU/Linux exclusively for this purpose. When I started using Bitcoin I again only use GNU/Linux in any situation where I have to enter a password related to Bitcoin. So I have to agree with the premise that this is the user's fault for using Microsoft Windows; however insensitive this may sound to Microsoft Windows users or to Microsoft corporation. |
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My suggestion remains XBT for millibitcoin and keep BTC for bticoin. So 1 BTC = 1000 XBT
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