To the informed Bitcoin holder yes, but to the uninformed holder this kind of thing will induce panic. I suspect as in the SilkRoad case that there is a massive institutional demand, that more than compensates for the panic these kind of news would normally create. Just take a look at this thread on Second Market. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=326558.0. If the Winklevoss twins get SEC approval for their ETF. Watch out. |
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So funny to think what this looks like to a "sophisticated investor": The Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Bitcoin Investment Trust is calculated daily at 4pm ET*. Historical NAV:
November 6, 2013: $25.45
November 5, 2013: $23.78
November 4, 2013: $21.97
November 1, 2013: $20.46
October 31, 2013: $20.02
October 30, 2013: $20.30
October 29, 2013: $20.03
October 28, 2013: $19.62
October 25, 2013: $18.04
October 24, 2013: $19.46
October 23, 2013: $20.10
October 22, 2013: $19.10
October 21, 2013: $17.90
October 18, 2013: $15.20
October 17, 2013: $14.55
October 16, 2013: $14.86
October 15, 2013: $14.31
October 14, 2013: $14.27
October 11, 2013: $13.03
October 10, 2013: $13.14
October 9, 2013: $13.03
October 8, 2013: $12.52
October 7, 2013: $12.77
October 4, 2013: $12.63
October 3, 2013: $11.70
October 2, 2013: $11.86
October 1, 2013: $13.22
September 30, 2013: $13.26
September 27, 2013: $13.35
September 26, 2013: $12.67
September 25, 2013: $12.88
^ This fucker was updated one day at a time.. Actually this is at this point been sold to medium to long term investors not day traders. There is a reason for the redemption lockin. So a daily valuation is perfectly reasonable. If one is looking for a Bitcoin based derivative suitable for day trading then an account at AvaTrade or Plus500 is more appropriate. |
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For Canadians here is a site to calculate estimate tax rates. http://www.ey.com/CA/en/Services/Tax/Tax-Calculators-2013-Personal-Tax For capital gains the best province / territory is either Alberta or Nunavut. The marginal rate for 1,000,000 CAD for capital gains ranges from 19.5% in Alberta to 25% in Nova Scotia. For 100,000 CAD it ranges from 17.5% in Nunavut to 22.86% in Quebec. |
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so, I just woke up. Saw new ATH but no rocket and 25 new coins in orderbook. Where?
Could someone give me a very quick wrapup of the last 6 hours? Thread has too many pages to read.
Slow grind higher beyond ATH. No $50 a day yet, so lots of excited teenagers over nothing. I see. And that huge wall at $273 at gox popped up around the time the ath was broken? Just after the ATH was broken the wall popped up. Also the exchanges in China have been much more stable than MTGox and Bitstamp while all of this was happening. |
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The uncertainty is annoying, because now we don't know when to start panic buying.
The market is not efficient at all because of the difficulty of moving fiat between exchanges, and I do not just mean the MTGox issues here. |
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Well one can take the ATH of 288 CAD or 283 USD on Virtex in April and look for an exchange other than MTGox to exceed it. The most likely candidate is one of the exchanges in China where one is looking for 1726 CNY. There is more to Bitcoin than MTGox.
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Why doesn't gox come up with another temporary solution like sending money via Western Union (gag), check/money order/ gold/whatever?
I mean yes those options suck but it's better than no options at all?
It may turn out that Bitcoin may be the most cost effective way to get USD out of MTGox, especially for small amounts. I know how this sounds but there is a reason why Bitcoin trades for over 250 USD on Bitstamp for example. |
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The spread between MtGox and Bitstamp is about 3%, way less than this summer. What many forget is that JPY and EUR are leaving MTGox even though USD, CAD etc are for the most part trapped. The multi currency design of MTGox means that trapped USD, CAD etc have been in many cases leaving as JPY and EUR. By the way if the overall ATH breaks on Bitstamp, I would not be surprised if we see a very sharp upward spike.
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At this point there is only one in Vancouver. When I go there I will probably give it a try.
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The last move into uncharted territory for reference  |
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Price is spiking hard beyond gox again! This would be a great time to have one of those virtex debit cards on hand;)
Not once one factors in the 0.9595 CADUSD rate. |
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what do you guys consider to be a whale nowadays?
Maybe >10 000 BTC? > BTC1.000 IMHO. My definition would be Vladimir club membership namely > 2100 BTC |
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CAVirtex is now ahead of Gox  That's CAD though, of course.. not USD. No Virtex is not ahead of MTGox at this time. Virtex 214 CAD = 205.3 USD MtGox 213.01 USD Bitstamp 204.01 USD BTCChina 1279 CNY = 210 USD BTC-E 199.2 USD So some but not all the polar bears have migrated from Canada to Russia. |
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Bitcoin is the fastest and cheapest means to do international value transfer. In a time when governments are restricting people's ability to transact, an uncensorable transfer mechanism is quite valuable, even before it beats the banks on fees and speed.
As is currently being demonstrated by MTGox and its banks. |
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I agree on your points about the exponential model. What would be another model you would suggest for after we surpass ~5% penetration?
After we surpass about 5% penetration i would suggest something along the lines of a Sigmoid Function http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_functionEdit With t=0 to correspond to a time in the future where one expects 50% market penetration. For t << 0 the sigmoid function approximates an exponential function |
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This is an excellent analysis; however there some points I wish to make: 1) The data for the BTC/USD exchange rate for 2009, and early 2010. I have managed to research this and found data for November / December 2009 and posted the results in this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=308567.msg3309071#msg3309071 The valuation of .005 BTC /USD is way to high. The values ranged from 0.000614866 to 0.00130719 BTC/USD. Also the "pizza valuation" would place the BTC/USD rate at around 0.0028 in May 2010. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137.0. The net result of this is to significantly underestimate the current trend and future value. 2) The exponential model works well only when the market penetration is very low say below 5% since it neglects the probability of a newbie attempting to introduce Bticoin to a veteran. Based upon the value of the world M1 money supply approximately 20 trillion USD and the world gold supply approximately 8.2 trillion USD I would say this model will start to break down between 50,000 and 100,000 BTC/USD. 3) I am not concerned about the use of a least squares fit in logarithmic space. Wow, thanks for researching this early data. So the first datapoint you have researched is October 5th 2009? I agree on your points about the exponential model. What would be another model you would suggest for after we surpass ~5% penetration? (note: For some reason your point 3) did not show in your post, only saw it when replying, strange) I haven't made up my mind about how large the effect of using least squares in logarithmic space to fit a linear model vs. using least squares in linear space to fit an exponential model is. It might be negligible (or non-existant?), but it might also be large. I want to try to fit some models, but first I need at least some data for pre-gox era. Your numbers help a lot. What would you suggest I could do for the time before your first data point in October 2009. I could just use "0" or interpolate linearly from 0 (Jan 3rd 2009) to your first datapoint. Any ideas? I added point 3) in an edit that is why it did not show up right away. My suggestion for before October 2009 is to add some points based upon the cost of electricity of a mid range CPU mining Bitcoin at a difficulty of 1. Maybe one or two. The mining valuation is appropriate for 2009 since there was not much trading then. I would not use more than say 0.0001 before June 2009. 0 is not an option because it is a logarithmic scale. Between December 2009 and May 2010 (pizza) I would simply interpolate. In my opinion it is best to not include a point that a wild guess for early 2009 because these points will skew the results. |
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This is an excellent analysis; however there some points I wish to make: 1) The data for the BTC/USD exchange rate for 2009, and early 2010. I have managed to research this and found data for November / December 2009 and posted the results in this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=308567.msg3309071#msg3309071 The valuation of .005 BTC /USD is way to high. The values ranged from 0.000614866 to 0.00130719 BTC/USD. Also the "pizza valuation" would place the BTC/USD rate at around 0.0028 in May 2010. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137.0. The net result of this is to significantly underestimate the current trend and future value. 2) The exponential model works well only when the market penetration is very low say below 5% since it neglects the probability of a newbie attempting to introduce Bticoin to a veteran. Based upon the value of the world M1 money supply approximately 20 trillion USD and the world gold supply approximately 8.2 trillion USD I would say this model will start to break down between 50,000 and 100,000 BTC/USD. Edit: 3) I am not concerned about the use of a least squares fit in logarithmic space. |
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i'm not a hacker but i don't think guessing passwords is the way to go.
best to make users install your trojan which gives you a back door to their computer. the trojan can read the wallet.dat file and report its contents, which can do a lot of damage if you did not encrypted your wallet with a strong password.
if you just don't install shit off the web,
disable java!
and encrypted your wallet
I would imagine hackers won't be able to get to you.
The best anti hacker advice here, which is excellent by the way, is in the poster's avatar. Say no to Microsoft Windows and yes to GNU/Linux |
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Hard fork over block size limit issue.
This is the most significant challenge that Bitcoin faces. |
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