The right of the state to tax fiat has no base on the fact that fiat is created by the state or by the central bank with licence by the state, but rather on the fact that the state give everyone certain services and demands payment also on grounds of solidarity, equality and "fair" share of our enjoyment of the benefits of society: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=617895.msg6931130#msg6931130+1 |
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I think it might be a good idea to start selling small amounts as soon as we cross above the trend line.
If you have faith that this bubble will hit the same max with respect to the exponential trend as the last two bubbles did, then you can wait until Bitcoin is heavily overvalued to sell. But the idea that we are going to have a carbon copy of the last two bubbles strikes me as a little fishy. It's lax thinking.
I think that the worst time to sell is actually after just crossing the previous ATH. Historically rapid appreciation has always resulted. If you want to minimize the risk, just sell when it is the most overextended  Otherwise you increase the risk that you are holding depreciating fiat and squander your bitcoins. My minimum sell price is $3. I can sell you CALL options with that or anything above as the strike price Thinking that the bubbles repeat the same pattern.. if SlipperySlope would post his chart of the relative valuation - at least last time they did. We could have a 2011 style bubble this summer.
This is bitcoin.
This is also possible. Therefore only sell 20-30% at your preferred sell point so that you can fire another if it goes up another 10x. Or use the SSS method to rule out human judgement. If you do, I suggest you set the first sell point in $2-$3 range. I take it you mean $3 per mBTC; sorry I have to get used to thinking in terms of mBTC.  |
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I commented on this in this thread in Speculation. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=624800.0 The bottom line: Desperate short covering to meet BTC withdrawals. Edit: Who is left holding the bag is those who lent BTC to the short seller. Who wins: Those who bought BTC during the short selling and took delivery. |
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Very interesting analysis. My take is that if it was Karpeles this was desperate short covering. The suspension of USD withdrawals came right after the first 2013 bubble while the final collapse came after the second 2013 bubble. I never accepted the US government as the real cause behind the suspension of USD withdrawals from MTGox. One must keep in mind here that if one wishes to scam a community with a large component of libertarians and crypto-anarchists the US government makes for a very good bogeyman.
The net result of short selling large quantities of BTC is to suppress the price for a while, and then when the short collapses into bankruptcy or just before a sharp rally. Those who were around in 2011-2012 might remember pirateat40 who came to grief in very much the same way. It was a rally in August 2012 that finally did him in, and once the market realized that the BTC were never there and consequently could not be sold the price took off.
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It all depends on the size of the transactions. For most people Bitcoin can be made very close to anonymous and "dark" can actually work; however for a large drug cartel, let us say a few hundred million or more 2014 USD, Bitcoin will provide very little privacy and no amount of "dark" will help. Furthermore unlike the case of HSBC there is no "too big to fail" bank to protect the cartel.
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Given the rise over the last few days a correction is actually very healthy for the market.
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This is very good news because it avoids problems with VAT (IVA).
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I would not touch a short on BTC in this market at all. I have been around BTC long enough to watch many a bitbear go to the slaughter some in spectacular fashion. My favourite bitbear slaughter still remains pirateat40, with his 500,000 BTC or thereabouts short.
I am 100% long on BTC. I can sleep much better that way.
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Apparently it has been reinstated https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/kryptokit-bitcoin-wallet/lhhipingoaiddcoalochnbjlkifbpmoj?hl=en. Nevertheless this should serve as a warning to never allow access to one's BTC to be dependent upon software that can be removed at will by some corporation. Also the GNU/Linux Chromium unlike the Windows / OS X versions of Chrome does not have the requirement that plugins be approved by Google. So Google only has control in this case with Windows or OS X. Edit: If one really wants freedom and control over one's computer the first step is to ditch Windows and OS X. |
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Did you know that Li Ka-shing ("Superman") is also investing millions in BitPay, despite the current situation in China?
There is a lot of smart money moving into Bitcoin either directly or indirectly. |
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While a retest of 339.79 USD or maybe even 260 USD is within the realm of possibilities as a risk of being long, I see the risk for a short in this market is way higher. This market could also very easily run away to the 5000 USD range or even higher. This is simply a steady build-up of "good news" with very little impact on price, combined with a very tired bear. Anything could all of a sudden set the bulls off on a run. This has happened before with Bitcoin.
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Woo Hoo, another Halving Day! The next one will be epic. We should start preparing now!
What was it like last time round? Initially in late 2012 not much happened, but then we got the first bull market rise of 2013 of around 20x increase in BTC/USD. |
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there is no way to really calculate the total hash rate, we can only estimate based on the current difficulty and the speed at which blocks are created. luck plays a role, and the hashrate estimate seems to be fluctuating between 65-85 peta hashes per second currently, so the blockchain data seems roughly close enough. (source = http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ ) And yes, that is actually 65 quadrillion hashes per second. pretty impressive for an open-source beta project, don't you think? Thanks! Yes, pretty impressive. All my computing life I have been taught and taught students how to compute things in the most efficient way. It turns my stomach seeing that much computing power (and electrical power) wasted.  Do you people really believe that big miners will be more honest and less greedy than big bankers? When it come to wasted computing resources I would take a very long hard look at DRM and the licensing policies of companies like Microsoft and Apple before taking a look at Bitcoin. Ever wonder why eWaste is the fastest growing environmental problem? Hint compare the price of Microsoft Windows or Microsoft Office with and without the purchase of a new computer. As for Apple one has to buy a new computer in order to run their OS X software. |
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Ever heard of Civil Obedience?...
Actually no, I've always paid more attention to the other side.  Civil Obedience?At least I learned something new today. With the help of computers, will BTC Civil Obedience actually burden the IRS enough to make a difference? This will depend on how popular BTC becomes. If a significant number of Americans each submit a few hundred or even thousand capital gains transactions each for relatively small amounts it will have an impact. Contrary to popular assumptions tax agencies do not have unlimited funds and their mandate is to raise money for the state not spend it. If the paperwork burden gets bad enough where there is no significant return in taxes collected, they will change the rules to something more sensible where there is a threshold below which transactions are not reportable as is the case with foreign currency. By the way I live in Canada and the CRA is doing a similar thing. They will learn just give them some time. It is interesting to see some tax agencies in Europe backtrack on VAT and BTC. The UK comes to mind here. In the meantime I am for tracking every satoshi and do not forget to claim those BTC network fees. |
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Ever heard of Civil Obedience? The idea is that one complies with a questionable law to the letter, in order to force a change in the law. In this case the market can develop the appropriate software to generate the appropriate IRS forms and then let IRS deal with the paperwork burden of tracking millions of small capital gains and losses.
As far as I can see this is a perfect case for Civil Obedience.
PS: One should also include Bitcoin network transaction fees in order to accurately determine the tax cost basis to the last satoshi.
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One question for the SaveGox team. Will existing MTGox customers be able to access their historical trading and account information? This may be needed in some cases for income tax compliance for example.
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Consider the evolution of P2P file sharing for music that got the government all up in a tizzy trying to regulate it and protect the corporate music industry. ...
The same evolution happened exactly with the movie industry and television networks ...
Same exact evolution happened with the publishing industry when people opted for the freedom ...
The entire entertainment industry has been co opted by the will of the people refusing to accept the rules ...
The same thing is happening with marijuana...
Freedom is the only option and people do choose it and they do thrive.
Before any of these happened, as long as I can remember (> 12 years), http://mp3.baidu.com has been offering amazing repertoire of music to download from Woody Guthrie to Bartok (you must come from an IP address of China to download these illegal copies, and I drunk this well like crazy), and every other rule of entertainment industry you mentioned has been broken in Chian from the start - so is software copyright, e.g. few pays Microsoft Tax here. But I don't see this freedom bring any influnce on the free thinking to China. I also cannot ascribe the entertainment and software industry development to this freedom. Indeed observing from China, this 'freedom' is slowly reducing thanks to stronger and richer Chinese entertainment industry. So, observing from this end of the earth, it is difficult to convince a Chinese that the world trend is the one you describe, and there is still no proof freedom brining productivity if you look from here. we observed reverse trends, that merger and takeover are mainstream in china internet sector. Personally I know the event and 'development' you described and observed, but my fellow countrymen doesn't, thus they joined Bitcoin game for a very different reason than yours. I wrote another article to address the reason Chinese joined Bitcoin since late 2013, still it is in the editing workflow. You also said freedom bring indie developers with new technology. We have every new Internet technology the West have, with our state controled imitation, many have more users than the original. So lack of innovation does not make life harder. If you link freedom to innovation, you will find a funny fact, that we decided to outsource this freedom to the West and see what they produce, and copy it. So without adding more freedom here, we enjoy the fruit none the less. Mindboggingly: If freedome can be outsourced, there is no reason why we must produce it ourselves. There is a historical parallel when it come to intellectual property between China and the United States in the late 20th and 21st centuries and between the United States and Great Britain in the 18th and 19th centuries. Industrial designs were actually smuggled aboard sailing ships for shipment from Great Britain to the United States. What many do not realize is that China is copying from the United States now much in the same fashion as the United States was copying from Great Britain back then. The United States did not ratify the Berne Convention on copyright until 1989 over 100 years after it was effective in 1887. The Untied States' aggressive stance on Intellectual property is actually rather recent, largely driven by the fact that most manufacturing has left the United States. If a significant amount of manufacturing starts to leave China I would expect China to start taking a much tougher stance on intellectual property also. |
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I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days. Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts: Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain: 2011: - 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2 - GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery - another flashcrash to $2.2014: - 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340 - GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery - ?(to be found out in 7 days.... ) While a retest of 339.79 is certainly possible, there is one key difference here namely the multiple tests of 380 - 400 in this bear market. This parallel did not occur in 2011. So it is quite possible that 1) We see yet another test of 380 - 400 before an upward breakout or 2) we just see an upward breakout. This bear is starting to look very tried to me. By the way the fall of 2011 is when I started buying Bitcoin so the charts are good for nostalgia. I say hold / long term buy. Edit: As for China, this is starting to look like the little boy who cried wolf, with the wolf replaced by a bit bull. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmxKWEqBN-8 |
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Does anyone wanna challenge me on my wild speculation? There are those of us who believe you have a point. |
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