|
The downside risk here is huge. Personally for what amounts to a Bitcoin receivable in default, paying 0.56 BTC per 1 BTC receivable seems horribly overpriced to me. Now under 0.01 BTC and more like 0.001 BTC per 1 BTC receivable, I may take a look at it.
On another note BitcoinBuilder may have run afoul of the SEC in the United States, since MTGoxBTC could really be considered securities in default.
|
|
|
|
|
One way to protect privacy, I can see, is to force MTGox into bankruptcy in Japan. Given that MTGox has already performed many acts of insolvency this should be possible. It would likely take hiring a law firm in Japan to do this. Japan has very strict privacy laws so a receiver of MTGox would have to abide by them, thereby protecting the privacy of the "verified" and "trusted" customers.
|
|
|
|
Bitcoin is among the many things that Apple has censored. That is the downside of purchasing a DRM infected locked down device such as an iPhone. The best option is to ditch Apple and purchase a competitive device such as Android phone or later the one of the upcoming Ubuntu phones. In the meantime there are also some options to break out of the Apple censorship jail.  Edit: One option but only after escaping from the Apple censorship jail: https://blockchain.info/wallet/iphone-app |
|
|
|
Now the real question here is JPY withdrawals (domestic within Japan) in the last two weeks. How are they proceeding?
Seem to be taking 3-4 weeks, faster if you have a Japanet bank account, according to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428242.100This JPY delay is what finally convinced me that MTGox is insolvent. |
|
|
|
We have no evidence that Gox was running a fractional reserve system, unless someone can point us to data proving so? It's unlikely for them to do so precisely because of Btc appreciation versus fiat in the months leading up to November 2013.
One would think, except for the fact that the "delays" in BTC withdrawals have followed a sharp rise in the BTC/USD rate in November / December 2013. |
|
|
|
I think Gox will survive and be just fine.
Why? Because people didn't stay away after they were large part of all the other big price crashes in bitcoin.
I really hope I'm wrong though. I wish they would just disappear. The management is a bunch of imbeciles and they have been shown to untrustworthy.
If I wanted a fractional reserve system I'll just stick to fiat thanks.
If they are running a fractional reserve on BTC, which I suspect that are now, it will get real ugly real fast. Why because the BTC/USD rate will go up sharply and when it does that will be the end. It was an increase BTC/USD rate that killed pirateat40, and once the market got out of denial, and accepted the fact that pirateat40 did not have the BTC to pay anyone the BTC/USD rate went up by a factor of 100. |
|
|
|
Hate all you want, but maybe Gox's screw-ups are what's been keeping this market volatile the way you like it.
All I can see is that they've been the biggest exchange for most of Bitcoin's history, naturally this lead to having the biggest problems to deal with, and they did deal with them and kept going every time. They're having a harder price crash than ever this time, but all eyes are on them and they're still making statements, so I can't say I'm expecting anything other than the usual: the problem getting solved in the end and overall public confidence in the Bitcoin ecosystem getting another boost from that.
Now you can carry on with your hate thread.
Indeed. Besides the lawsuits I can't see any particular reason for Gox to die. Keep in mind Gox has been working great, with only a few minor hiccups (and of course slow tech support), for those of us in Japan. It takes literally 2 minutes to deposit yen from a Japanese bank, and withdrawals have been smooth, usually 2-3 days, at most 2-3 weeks (this January). I hear SEPA withdrawals are working as well, though a few weeks delayed, and deposits seem to take a few days. So, besides those in the US (and where else?), it's only been this recent BTC malleability issue - which was legitimized by other exchanges having similar issues concurrently - that has changed anything. Granted we can expect the usual bumbling, non-communicative, heal-dragging approach as always, but if they solve the malleability problem in a few weeks I see no particular reason to expect any kind of insolvency or discontinuation of service. They will of course lose a lot of customers and probably remain a buggy experience overall, but other than potential lawsuits I don't see what is supposed to be actually killing them at this time. Eventually, sure, they will die or become a niche service, but insolvency just because they probably got scammed out of some number of coins? Seems like idle speculation. I also had no problems withdrawing USD to my Canadian bank account up to 10 months ago. It was very smooth typically under 48 hours. That was then, today the situation is very different. It is not just a "US" problem. I tried withdrawing CAD to a Canadian bank account back in October 2013. Not possible. I ended up buying back my BTC (at a profit I must say due to the silk road crash) and withdrawing my BTC right after. Now the real question here is JPY withdrawals (domestic within Japan) in the last two weeks. How are they proceeding? |
|
|
|
|
I voted "You need actual bitcoins to be able to withdrawl not goxxed coins" and "Never" because MTGox has provided multiple indicators over the last eight months that they are insolvent.
|
|
|
|
Possible keylogger?
Let me guess. The operating system is Microsoft Windows. |
|
|
|
Also no indication of when to expect withdrawals to resume in any form or fashion.
Lame excuses and tactics to buy more time.
weekend approaching, my guess fix will be next week. What fix? There isnt anything that needs to be fixed other than their solvency. Bistamp dealt the TM issue. Close withdrawals temporarily and reopened then in a few days. No issues there. This shows either 1 of 2 things: 1. MTGOX is incompetent 2. MTGOX is insolvent I tend to believe it is #2. I have to disagree with this on "either". I tend to believe MTGox is both incompetent and insolvent. |
|
|
|
Get in fiat Quick we are done, this is it.
Why sell BTC because MTGoxBTC/MTGoxUSD is crashing? Once the market determines that BTC and MTGoxBTC are not really correlated, BTC will sky-rocket, just as it did once it became clear that pirateat40 way not going to pay any BTC back in late 2012, as there were no BTC to sell. One cannot sustain a naked short on BTC for ever. So I say take delivery, hold and watch the naked shorts get squeezed to the wall. It will not be pretty over the short term but once it blows over it will be very profitable. |
|
|
|
|
MTGox is now below 100 for MTGoxBTC/MTGoxUSD. Will this currency pair go below 10?
|
|
|
|
Being that in Japan only fiat is regulated should they decide to forcefully liquidate all their customers into fiat (at their current ridicoulos exchange rate) there will be also no room for lawsuits against them.
This has been tried before by a certain pirateat40 in the US. It did not work when the US government went to court and made the case that to all effective purposes Bitcoin is money. |
|
|
|
Yes for someone who has USD in MTGox, this arbitrage actually makes sense.
The process is
1) Trade MTGoxUSD for MTGoxBTC on MTGox
2) Sell MTGoxBTC for real BTC on Bitcoin Builder
3) Sell real BTC for real USD on another exchange
MTGoxBTC/USD rate 111.3
Bitcoin Builder bid MTGoxBTC/BTC 0.5
Bitstamp BTC/USD 577.5
So for 100 MTGox USD on can get 100*0.5*577.5/113.3 = 254.85 real USD. There will be a few % loss in fees spreads etc., but really!
As for depositing USD or EUR etc. into MTGox to do this, not a good idea because in the time that it takes for MTGox to credit the the MTGoxUSD the BitcoinBulider rate could easily plunge to a more realistic 0.1 MTGoxBTC/BTC or even less 0.01, 0.00 etc. Some people are bidding well below 1 real satoshi for a MTGoxBTC.
exactly - so what is going on? this is getting weirder and weirder. maybe BitcoinBuilder credit issues? what is the going rate otc for goxBTC? For starters volume. Try dumping say 10000 MTGoxBTC (a recent 4 hour volume on MTGox) on the BitcoinBuilder bid and the price will drop to a more realistic 0.00001 MTGoxBTC/BTC. A few small players may be able to get out this way but that is about it. |
|
|
|
|
Yes for someone who has USD in MTGox, this arbitrage actually makes sense.
The process is
1) Trade MTGoxUSD for MTGoxBTC on MTGox
2) Sell MTGoxBTC for real BTC on Bitcoin Builder
3) Sell real BTC for real USD on another exchange
MTGoxBTC/USD rate 111.3
Bitcoin Builder bid MTGoxBTC/BTC 0.5
Bitstamp BTC/USD 577.5
So for 100 MTGox USD on can get 100*0.5*577.5/113.3 = 254.85 real USD. There will be a few % loss in fees spreads etc., but really!
As for depositing USD or EUR etc. into MTGox to do this, not a good idea because in the time that it takes for MTGox to credit the the MTGoxUSD the BitcoinBulider rate could easily plunge to a more realistic 0.1 MTGoxBTC/BTC or even less 0.01, 0.00 etc. Some people are bidding well below 1 real satoshi for a MTGoxBTC.
|
|
|
|
So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?
In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case. If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't. And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability. One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC. That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings. it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy Why is this any more likely to happen than the receiver immediately acting to mitigate risk of BTC/JPY rate fluctuations for all BTC obligations (via options etc)? I'm not a bankruptcy expert but that seems like something a receiver would do immediately upon assuming control of a multinational with obligations in multiple currencies. That would seem unorthodox. Logically, all assets would be liquidated to JPY in bankruptcy. I see no reason why this would differ for BTC assets. So my thinking is that Goxcoin holders in this situation risk being compensated years later for their Goxcoin holdings, denominated in JPY at the original liquidation price. What will regulators do -- pour all the BTC into Mpex?  I'm sure there's large holders that would be willing to write up some off-exchange contracts. And as for reasoning: the obvious volatility of BTC assets. I am totally unsure of precedent though, especially in Japan (I just found a PDF of a Brazilian bankruptcy proceeding where the debtors were required to be paid in the original denomination unless they indicated otherwise, but I doubt that's helpful). In any event, this ignores the bigger logical leap I'm not following: how did MTGox end up insolvent? They certainly appear profitable. Is the theory that they were totally wiped out by tx mutability? If they lost a significant number of BTC, creating a BTC fractional reserve, before the BTC rise to over 1240 USD very easily. Also poorly managed companies will find all sorts of ways to bleed money. |
|
|
|
That would seem unorthodox. Logically, all assets would be liquidated to JPY in bankruptcy. I see no reason why this would differ for BTC assets.
So my thinking is that Goxcoin holders in this situation risk being compensated years later for their Goxcoin holdings, denominated in JPY at the original liquidation price.
Precisely, which is why a BTC obligation holder could end up getting only a few milliBTC or even only a few satoshi on the BTC. |
|
|
|
So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?
In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case. If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't. And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability. One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC. That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings. No. it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy and then the BTC/JPY rate sky rockets. How this is handled during a bankruptcy can create a real legal mess between the creditors holding BTC claims and the creditors holding fiat claims. |
|
|
|
So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?
In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case. If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't. And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability. One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
