I don't get everyone's fetish with ASIC's killed BTC... It cost me about $700 to get one ASIC unit up and running.. that is not expensive.
A GPU (can) cost as little as $200 and earned more BTC than your $700 ASIC does. The GPU era also showed greater decentralization and a greater ability for the average technically competent person to involve themself. No. The CPU and to a large degree the GPU era of Bitcoin mining was way more centralized because many of the CPUs and GPUs were on systems running Microsoft Windows. This effectively gave Microsoft control over the Bitcoin network because of the DRM in Microsoft Windows. It also made the Bitcoin network vulnerable to criminal botnets based on weaknesses in Microsoft Windows. In reality ASICs have saved Bitcoin from the DRM infected cesspool that Microsoft Windows has become. |
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The Ulbricht family would like to argue that a conviction of Dread Pirate Roberts would 'threaten internet freedom'. http://www.coindesk.com/family-ross-ulbricht-conviction-threaten-internet-freedom/ What a joke. You are not free to use the internet for murder, money laundering, drug sales, et cetera. Why do people think 'internet freedom' means one is free to murder, rape, steal, cheat - over the internet? WTF??? If you do this shit, whether over the internet or over morse code smoke signals - you are going to get popped. Doing something over the internet doesn't mean all laws are nullified. What a dumbass. That family hired one stupid ass lawyer. Actually no. These kinds of cases can have profound implications for civil liberties regardless of how one feels about the guilt or innocence of the accused. There is a very important between selling the drugs himself and providing a platform that may be used by somebody else to sell drugs. Actually his lawyer is just doing his job. |
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ArticMine, I presume you were joking?
I just happen to remember that just 18 months ago a similar comment would have been made if someone said 1100 for BTC/USD. And someone saying 1 for BTC/USD 4 years ago would have sounded even more insane. |
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I think that the next bull run in 2015 drives price from e.g. 50 USD to 150-200 USD  Now, the market tends to despair time... That is not a bull run, that is a bear market correction. Kind of like the August 2012 peak of of just over 15 USD. |
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A lot depends on when the next bull run will happen. For a bull run in 2014 or early 2015 I would say between 10,000 and 200,000 for the BTC/USD rate, with the lower part of the range for an early bull run and the higher part of the range for a later bull run.
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Here is my bet:
50000-100000 0.05%
15000-49999.99 0.10%
4000-14999.99 2.00%
1161-3999.99 19.00%
800-1160.99 25.00%
450-799.99 33.00%
331-449.99 7.50%
256-330.99 13.00%
33-255.99 0.34%
0-32.99 0.01%
Volatility is a given with Bitcoin hence the two peaks.
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1) MTGox makes of with approximately 500,000 BTC
2) MtGox goes into civil rehabilitation proceedings (minji saisei)
3) Order for Provisional Administration of MTGox is announced
... various bankruptcy proceedings continue in various jurisdictions
n) value of Bitcoin reaches 10,000 USD per BTC, value of MTGox bankruptcy reaches 5,000,000,000 USD
... various bankruptcy proceedings continue in various jurisdictions
q) value of Bitcoin reaches 100,000 USD per BTC, value of MTGox bankruptcy reaches 50,000,000,000 USD
... various bankruptcy proceedings continue in various jurisdictions
r) value of Bitcoin reaches 1,000,000 USD per BTC, value of MTGox bankruptcy reaches 500,000,000,000 USD
... and so it continues
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Reading this article I get the impression that it was written by one of the many iSheep because of the many references to
Apple products as the replacements to the "doomed to fail" technologies. Given Apple's censorship of Bitcoin it would make a lot of sense that Bitcoin be included among the "doomed to fail" technologies.
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For me how much BTC I choose to sell, if any, in such a bubble may actually come down to how I choose to treat the BTC/USD exchange data from New Liberty Standard in 2009 http://newlibertystandard.wikifoundry.com/page/2009+Exchange+Rate, as it can impact my model trend lines. This is the nature of exponential models. Whether the price of 1 BTC was 0.000613 USD or 0.005 USD in December 2009 is actually an important factor here. Do you think an argument can be made that recent price data has greater predictive power than old price data and should therefore be given greater weight when calculating the trendline? Two arguments: 1. More recent price data, in theory, has more market information to draw upon. ie, any interval changes in market fundamentals are reflected in recent price data but not older price data. 2. The volatility as measured on a log scale is expected to decrease with time. IOW, recent price data should be modeled as having a better signal to noise ratio than older price data. There is a case here but not including earlier data or giving it a lower weight does run the risk also of skewing the results. One thing we must keep in mind here is that there are some long exponential trend lines going back to April 2011 that have held, so getting a good grip on what happened before the 2011 peak is very important. |
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treat the BTC/USD exchange data from New Liberty Standard in 2009 http://newlibertystandard.wikifoundry.com/page/2009+Exchange+Rate, as it can impact my model trend lines. This is the nature of exponential models. Whether the price of 1 BTC was 0.000613 USD or 0.005 USD in December 2009 is actually an important factor here. I feel the need to comment on this: this is one of the datasets I found when first trying to calculate the long-term trendline. I discarded it entirely, because it is not based on market prices. Of course it is cool to know what is the electricity cost per bitcoin, but one would be greatly in error if composing a similar dataset now and trying to explain the market price with it. How much is the electricity cost for the newest equipment, btw? 10%? Yes but what is crucial here is not what the cost of electricity in the overall cost of mining Bitcoin is today, but what it was back in October - December 2009 when the equipment being used, CPUs was mostly all ready paid for and depreciated. Furthermore there is considerable evidence that these costs were used as a basis for offering Bitcoin for sale at the time. Okay, please unload the evidence here! I've been searching for it for 6 months so am very grateful  I will start with this post From NewLibertyStandard from January 19 ,2010. It is clear he was buying and selling based on his prices. I have had people buy bitcoins from me and sell bitcoins to me. Supply and demand, albeit only a small amount, already exists and is all that is really needed. Offering to exchange bitcoins for another currency is ultimately no different from exchanging bitcoins for goods or services. Currencies are goods and exchanging them is a service. I have been trying to think of something besides USD dollars which I can try to buy or sell using bitcoins, but I can't think of anything. Please let us know about whatever you decide to sell for bitcoins. As for the issue of burning through funds, I have written a daily donation into my budget. You can buy all my USD dollars or bitcoins today, but there will always be more tomorrow and the next day. Each person who buys or sells goods using bitcoins, including exchangers, is increasing the bitcoin economy. Everyone, do your part. Buy or sell something in exchange for bitcoins!
Here is a thread wondering why the price went up between late 2009 and early 2010, from February 2010 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37.0Here is a post indicating the cost of electricity seen and the major cost in mining Bitcoin with no mention of equipment https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2918.msg40324#msg40324 The indication that NewLibertyStandard was an exchanger buying and selling based on his posted prices. There is more one has to go through the earliest threads on this forum looking for references to price, exchangers etc. EDIT1: The announcement of Bitcoin Market https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=20.0;allEDIT2: This thread refers to NewLibertyStandard as a price indicator https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=25.0;allEDIT3: Another early thread with references to NewLibertyStandard, Bitcoin Market and later MTGox! https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30.0;allEDIT4: Reference to NewLibertyStandard and his pricing methodology. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42.0;all EDIT5: This thread from satoshi indicated that the first automatic difficulty adjustment occurred on December 30, 2009 from 1 to 1.18. This is crucial since before then Bitcoin mining was not competitive equipment wise and it came down to how much electricity does it cost one to generate x number of BTC with equipment that would otherwise be idle. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=43.0;all |
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treat the BTC/USD exchange data from New Liberty Standard in 2009 http://newlibertystandard.wikifoundry.com/page/2009+Exchange+Rate, as it can impact my model trend lines. This is the nature of exponential models. Whether the price of 1 BTC was 0.000613 USD or 0.005 USD in December 2009 is actually an important factor here. I feel the need to comment on this: this is one of the datasets I found when first trying to calculate the long-term trendline. I discarded it entirely, because it is not based on market prices. Of course it is cool to know what is the electricity cost per bitcoin, but one would be greatly in error if composing a similar dataset now and trying to explain the market price with it. How much is the electricity cost for the newest equipment, btw? 10%? Yes but what is crucial here is not what the cost of electricity in the overall cost of mining Bitcoin is today, but what it was back in October - December 2009 when the equipment being used, CPUs was mostly all ready paid for and depreciated. Furthermore there is considerable evidence that these costs were used as a basis for offering Bitcoin for sale at the time. |
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The chances of this happening are small.
Most bitcoin holders would not be able to hold through a 100X or 200X increase happening so fast.
Bitcoin holders would find themselves sitting on trillions of wealth forcing them to diversify away from bitcoin. This would prevent such steep and sustained increase.
I think all of the above is wrong, because: - The chances of this happening are surprisingly big, because it is a self-sustaining loop. - The exchanges are not in the position to deal with it, so it will be very risky to sell bitcoins, trapping most of the current bitcoiners from selling even though they wanted to diversify. - The countries have issued capital gains tax edicts, which makes you pay $100-$500 million tax per every billion you sell, and you don't have time to scale up your organization and tax planning - Because your wealth goes up so quickly you are inundated with all kinds of considerations, might go crazy in a positive way or paranoid in a negative, but anyway not able to orderly sell such wealth - Because price is going up steeply and people are not selling, quite small demand will push the price up ever more steeply until it goes really high and only then collapses. In the final phase of the bubble the price can double with essentially no volume. TL;DR: There is no real reason why the next bubble would not be able to go to $100,000 even this year.For me how much BTC I choose to sell, if any, in such a bubble may actually come down to how I choose to treat the BTC/USD exchange data from New Liberty Standard in 2009 http://newlibertystandard.wikifoundry.com/page/2009+Exchange+Rate, as it can impact my model trend lines. This is the nature of exponential models. Whether the price of 1 BTC was 0.000613 USD or 0.005 USD in December 2009 is actually an important factor here. In the last bubble (December 2013) and subsequent bear market I have held for the most part increasing my BTC holdings slightly over my position at the beginning of October 2013. Capital gains or similar taxes are a very important consideration before selling here. Essentially one is looking for a reasonable chance of being able to buy back at well below 50% of the average sell price in the subsequent bear market. Since one will never be able accurately time the top of the bubble, one is looking for a strong protracted bear market in the aftermath of the bubble. As for the wealth management aspect of this it is crucial. One has to learn to see one's net worth fluctuate in a matter of days over even hours by a factor greater than 50X or more of one's entire net worth a year ago, and learn to sleep soundly through the whole affair. Edit: Exchange risk is also a crucial consideration. Mitigating the effects of a 1,000,000+ USD "goxing" by accepting a 250,000 USD loss. Now multiply this by a factor of 100. |
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Hey, I am glad someone else mentioned ethereum, will you or anyone else reading this buy the ether coins when they come out? 1 btc/1000 eth I think. Would this be a smart investment?
I have about 5-10% of my crypto investment spread across some of the major altcoins -- mostly litecoin, but a few others as well. If you're in the mood to gamble, you might want to convert some bitcoin into some cheap-o alts before the next parabolic rise in bitcoin, then convert back into bitcoin after the parabolic rise. But I consider this to be "speculation" (trying to predict what the market will do based on psychology rather than fundamentals) which is less worthy of respect than investing, which is based on one's understanding of market fundamentals. As for ether, I'll probably buy a little bit, but I plan to reassess when it comes out. I read something recently by Vitalik about bitcoin sidechains in which he said that Ethereum would probably not work as a sidechain, bc it's too different, but he also indicated that Ethereum could work *with* bitcoin and other alts as opposed to being a competitor that might replace bitcoin. As a long term bitcoin investor, I am encouraged by that. Why would you get out of bitcoin BEFORE it's parabolic rise? I must be missing something. Yea I found that a little strange. Maybe he made an error? No he did not. Take a look at LTC/BTC https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcbtc for example. The peaks in LTC/BTC tend to coincide with the peaks in BTC/USD and vice versa with the lows. I sold my NMC for BTC close to the December 2013 peak for this reason at around 0.012. Today I would get less than half the amount of BTC. If one wants to panic sell out of BTC at the bottom of a bear market running to one of the "senior" alt coins such as LTC or NMC may actually make a lot of sense. |
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There is one little problem with the payment of taxes as an argument for giving fiat currency its initial value. Tax authorities have taken all sorts of things over the centuries for non payment of taxes. Here is just a small sample from the US Government. http://www.treasury.gov/auctions/IRS/index.html. My favourite example is brothels https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustang_Ranch. Are brothels a form of fiat currency in the United States because the IRS seized one? |
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24700 BTC is way over the top for the Trump condo. It should be closer to 3600 BTC.
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Bitcoin's "killer app" is that it's this image, minus the interest and the banks:  The money flows without the venomous banker leeches. Ever wonder how fractional reserve banking got started? Or for that matter how the Rothschilds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family got started? It is because it is expensive and inconvenient to take delivery of gold. |
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Here is the actual bill. http://www.scribd.com/doc/217067121/Virtual-Currency-Tax-Reform-ActIt does not levy any kind of sales taxes on Bitcoin. What is does do is treat Bitcoin as currency for tax purposes and this has two implications. 1) A $200 per transaction exemption for "personal transactions" 2) A higher tax rate equal to that of currency transactions. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/988The net effect of this is to encourage the use of Bitcoin for day to day transactions by eliminating the bookkeeping burden for small transactions while increasing the tax burden of those using Bitcoin as an instrument for speculation. For governments to treat Bitcoin as currency simply makes a lot of sense and consequently this bill in on the right track. |
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