You said that the control board fails to get the IP or the unit is inaccessible so that's the reason why it makes me think that the control board might be bricked.

Any related software flashing if you flash it wrong it always ends up bricked like phones if you flash a corrupted firmware the phone might end up boot loop/bricked with no power.

There's something weird in your profile how did you get -68 merits?

I totally agree with you. except you've reached a stage where you can boldly say, I'm at the peak of my investment and want to sell off my holding iether to upgrade my standard of living or you've gained that level of freedom that can put you im a position to fuk out of making an investment at all,  whatever comes outside of that as a reason to selling your holding should be sorted out with the emergency funds. It's even better you have special funds set aside for the purpose of buying when the market is at the bearish season that selling part of you holding for that objective. Every decision you're going to make as it regards when you even think of tempering with your investment is in phases and all the theories and methods that have been regularly outlined in this thread is not for everybody but relates for some people and it's just okay to choose which methord that works well for you based on your current Bitcoin accumulation stage and how much you want to accumulate at a particular point in time.

It's not everybody that should talk about selling and thier are others that aren't even buying now but are just waiting for Bitcoin to get to a particular price which is their set out profit point and you don't want to start comparing yourself that's still not strong and have as little as $500 worth of Bitcoin in your portfolio. Those that have reached the range of the position where they are in profit can possibly think about selling but if you're still at the stage where you're yet to have a balanced and good amount of holding, don't even waste your time thinking on the need to sell, like @ gunsan said earlier, there is a lot of uncertainty involved in selling your holding as a methord that will help you accumulate more. To be a safer side, any money you've used in Buying Bitcoin should never go back to fiat untill you've reached you goal, of thier is a need to buy more during the bearish season, you can make it a necessity to find special funds that will work well for that.

Some guys have "principles," which truly is not the case with homer, who seems to be on a mission to attempt to max it out prior to any other member.. which might be an interesting question.. regarding if there might be a max.

You know one thing people are yet to understand they feel like bitcoin can easily bow down to FOMO just like that, they were people that even thought that with the ETF approval the government has a gate pass to manipulating the bitcoin price but now bitcoin seems to be defeating those cases. At first I knew bitcoin will actually raise after the approval because the hype around it was just too much for it not to react but I was predictive that as definitely a bull trap and nothing more, now we have a chance once more to accumulate.


There is no denying the fact that Bitcoin popularity and adoption will grow mostly around all this huge investors with ETF around but the thing is it wouldn’t just spike a bullish trend immediately after raise because we know this big investors coming in through ETF wouldn’t just go ahead and invest heavily like that they will certainly have to strategize for that, so ETF effect might come later but for now we definitely have to hold on to the historical predictions we have as that is the only true trend we can predict now and in the past this trend of bearish sentiment is expected before halving

I think that theymos should punish you because of your finding a loophole, which was to quote and then to delete, which still preserves your negative merit status..

And the punishment is that you have to read and then write a short report on each of the posts that you quoted (and subsequently deleted) and each time you write your separate report for each post, it has to be with some original and interesting insight.. not just AI generated gobble-dee-gook.

hahahahahahaha


Currently "certified shitposter."

Some interesting titles, and I am sure theymos had anticipated some attempts at gaming it.

 Now I am Death, the Destroyer of Forums.

 Edit: I've achieved AI status

Daily BTC Volume Weighted Average Prices

   US Dollar              British Pound          EU Euro                Canadian Dollar        Japanese Yen
| Rank BitStamp   USD/BTC| Rank Kraken     GBP/BTC| Rank Kraken     EUR/BTC| Rank Kraken     CAD/BTC| Rank Kraken        JPY/BTC|
|  1  2024-03-13   72,901|  1  2024-03-13   57,001|  1  2024-03-13   66,641|  1  2024-03-13   98,050|  1  2024-03-13  10,738,120|
|  2  2024-03-11   71,360|  2  2024-03-28   56,007|  2  2024-03-31   65,484|  2  2024-03-14   96,720|  2  2024-03-26  10,657,190|
|  3  2024-03-14   71,280|  3  2024-03-31   55,917|  3  2024-03-28   65,473|  3  2024-03-12   96,377|  3  2024-03-28  10,650,059|
|  4  2024-03-12   71,275|  4  2024-03-14   55,853|  4  2024-03-14   65,435|  4  2024-03-28   96,230|  4  2024-03-31  10,608,011|
|  5  2024-03-28   70,608|  5  2024-03-12   55,769|  5  2024-03-11   65,424|  5  2024-03-11   95,979|  5  2024-03-29  10,587,617|
|  6  2024-03-31   70,606|  6  2024-03-11   55,733|  6  2024-03-12   65,277|  6  2024-03-31   95,729|  6  2024-03-14  10,582,702|
|  7  2024-03-26   70,247|  7  2024-03-26   55,598|  7  2024-03-26   64,971|  7  2024-03-30   95,006|  7  2024-03-30  10,564,513|
|  8  2024-03-30   70,012|  8  2024-03-30   55,473|  8  2024-03-30   64,903|  8  2024-03-26   94,997|  8  2024-03-12  10,556,754|
|  9  2024-03-29   69,919|  9  2024-03-27   55,398|  9  2024-03-29   64,839|  9  2024-03-29   94,734|  9  2024-03-27  10,527,312|
| 10  2024-03-27   69,813| 10  2024-03-29   55,362| 10  2024-03-27   64,485| 10  2024-03-27   94,732| 10  2024-03-11  10,488,132|
| 11  2024-03-10   69,255| 11  2024-03-25   54,864| 11  2024-03-25   63,793| 11  2024-03-25   93,174| 11  2024-03-25  10,470,073|
| 12  2024-03-25   69,040| 12  2024-03-10   53,899| 12  2024-03-10   63,412| 12  2024-03-10   92,607| 12  2024-03-16  10,212,920|
| 13  2024-03-09   68,393| 13  2024-03-15   53,348| 13  2024-03-15   62,659| 13  2024-03-15   92,209| 13  2024-03-15  10,147,103|
| 14  2024-03-15   68,271| 14  2024-03-16   53,280| 14  2024-03-09   62,525| 14  2024-03-09   91,935| 14  2024-03-18  10,091,276|
| 15  2024-03-08   68,221| 15  2024-03-09   53,177| 15  2024-03-08   62,249| 15  2024-03-08   91,753| 15  2024-03-10  10,085,309|
| 16  2024-03-18   67,570| 16  2024-03-17   53,168| 16  2024-03-18   62,218| 16  2024-03-18   91,338| 16  2024-03-17  10,027,181|
| 17  2021-11-09   67,483| 17  2024-03-18   53,143| 17  2024-03-16   61,916| 17  2024-03-16   91,011| 17  2024-03-08  10,022,777|
| 18  2024-03-16   67,308| 18  2024-03-08   52,869| 18  2024-03-07   61,548| 18  2024-03-17   90,726| 18  2024-03-09  10,008,718|
| 19  2024-03-07   67,191| 19  2024-03-07   52,566| 19  2024-03-17   61,345| 19  2024-03-07   90,429| 19  2024-03-21   9,953,985|
| 20  2024-03-17   66,643| 20  2024-03-21   52,359| 20  2024-03-21   61,155| 20  2024-03-21   90,261| 20  2024-03-04   9,938,620|
| 21  2024-03-06   66,315| 21  2024-03-06   52,191| 21  2024-03-06   60,977| 21  2024-03-06   89,559| 21  2024-03-23   9,923,572|
| 22  2024-03-21   66,312| 22  2024-03-24   52,149| 22  2024-03-24   60,888| 22  2024-03-04   88,890| 22  2024-03-07   9,919,720|
| 23  2021-11-10   66,256| 23  2024-03-04   52,045| 23  2024-03-04   60,681| 23  2024-03-05   88,578| 23  2024-03-05   9,912,807|
| 24  2024-03-04   65,970| 24  2024-03-23   51,524| 24  2024-03-23   59,965| 24  2024-03-24   88,214| 24  2024-03-24   9,910,504|
| 25  2021-11-08   65,762| 25  2024-03-22   51,046| 25  2024-03-05   59,935| 25  2024-03-23   87,437| 25  2024-03-06   9,827,253|
| 26  2021-10-20   65,702| 26  2024-03-05   50,837| 26  2024-03-22   59,282| 26  2024-03-19   87,004| 26  2024-03-22   9,705,929|
| 27  2024-03-24   65,423| 27  2024-03-20   50,317| 27  2024-03-20   59,055| 27  2024-03-20   86,799| 27  2024-03-20   9,698,127|
| 28  2021-11-15   65,064| 28  2024-03-19   50,286| 28  2024-03-19   58,818| 28  2024-03-22   86,291| 28  2024-03-19   9,552,863|
| 29  2024-03-05   65,034| 29  2021-11-09   49,792| 29  2021-11-09   58,262| 29  2024-03-01   84,052| 29  2024-02-29   9,386,634|
| 30  2021-11-11   64,931| 30  2024-03-03   49,327| 30  2021-11-10   57,686| 30  2024-02-29   83,809| 30  2024-03-01   9,340,839|
| 31  2024-03-23   64,584| 31  2021-11-10   49,168| 31  2024-02-29   57,578| 31  2021-11-09   83,455| 31  2024-03-03   9,302,691|
| 32  2021-10-21   64,502| 32  2024-02-29   49,126| 32  2024-03-03   57,549| 32  2024-03-03   83,418| 32  2024-03-02   9,294,427|
| 33  2021-11-14   64,456| 33  2024-03-01   48,977| 33  2024-03-01   57,341| 33  2024-03-02   83,171| 33  2024-02-28   9,042,370|
| 34  2024-03-22   64,302| 34  2024-03-02   48,956| 34  2024-03-02   57,174| 34  2021-11-10   82,832| 34  2024-02-27   8,407,792|
| 35  2024-03-19   64,167| 35  2021-11-08   48,742| 35  2021-11-15   56,952| 35  2024-02-28   81,530| 35  2024-02-16   7,830,608|
| 36  2021-11-13   64,113| 36  2021-11-11   48,509| 36  2021-11-08   56,845| 36  2021-11-11   81,500| 36  2024-02-19   7,822,986|
| 37  2021-11-12   63,900| 37  2021-11-15   48,353| 37  2021-11-11   56,660| 37  2021-11-08   81,070| 37  2024-02-15   7,814,098|
| 38  2024-03-20   63,775| 38  2021-11-14   48,063| 38  2021-11-14   56,474| 38  2021-11-15   80,540| 38  2024-02-22   7,773,323|
| 39  2021-04-14   63,315| 39  2021-11-13   47,898| 39  2021-10-20   56,175| 39  2021-11-14   80,464| 39  2024-02-25   7,770,012|
| 40  2021-10-19   63,168| 40  2021-10-20   47,751| 40  2021-11-13   55,992| 40  2021-11-12   80,271| 40  2024-02-20   7,742,377|
| 41  2021-04-15   62,949| 41  2021-11-12   47,624| 41  2021-11-12   55,834| 41  2021-11-13   80,152| 41  2024-02-18   7,730,074|
| 42  2021-10-25   62,745| 42  2024-02-28   47,543| 42  2024-02-28   55,727| 42  2021-10-20   79,740| 42  2024-02-24   7,727,616|
| 43  2021-11-03   62,608| 43  2021-10-21   46,448| 43  2021-10-21   55,241| 43  2021-04-14   79,331| 43  2024-02-17   7,724,998|
| 44  2024-03-03   62,489| 44  2021-11-02   46,396| 44  2021-11-02   54,447| 44  2021-04-15   78,716| 44  2024-02-26   7,720,094|
| 45  2021-11-02   62,447| 45  2021-04-14   46,202| 45  2021-11-03   54,117| 45  2021-10-21   78,185| 45  2024-02-23   7,686,558|
| 46  2021-11-07   62,216| 46  2021-11-07   46,076| 46  2021-10-25   54,067| 46  2021-04-13   78,083| 46  2024-02-21   7,682,222|
| 47  2021-04-13   62,143| 47  2021-10-19   45,797| 47  2021-11-07   53,969| 47  2021-11-03   77,496| 47  2024-02-14   7,636,491|
| 48  2024-02-29   62,117| 48  2021-04-13   45,697| 48  2021-10-19   53,891| 48  2021-11-02   77,490| 48  2021-11-09   7,635,537|
| 49  2024-03-01   62,097| 49  2021-10-25   45,694| 49  2021-10-26   53,539| 49  2021-10-25   77,451| 49  2021-11-10   7,532,552|
| 50  2021-10-22   62,069| 50  2021-04-15   45,683| 50  2021-11-04   53,448| 50  2021-10-19   77,392| 50  2021-11-08   7,510,185|
| 51  2024-03-02   62,027| 51  2021-11-05   45,612| 51  2021-10-22   53,442| 51  2021-04-16   77,246| 51  2021-10-20   7,447,736|
| 52  2021-10-26   61,895| 52  2021-11-03   45,596| 52  2021-11-16   53,413| 52  2021-11-07   77,228| 52  2021-11-15   7,433,058|
| 53  2021-11-04   61,789| 53  2021-11-04   45,444| 53  2021-11-05   53,370| 53  2021-10-26   76,716| 53  2024-02-13   7,414,509|
| 54  2021-10-18   61,675| 54  2021-11-16   45,150| 54  2021-10-30   53,264| 54  2021-04-17   76,658| 54  2021-11-11   7,395,599|
| 55  2021-10-30   61,605| 55  2021-11-06   45,101| 55  2021-10-18   53,097| 55  2021-11-05   76,554| 55  2021-11-14   7,353,127|
| 56  2021-10-29   61,534| 56  2021-10-26   45,081| 56  2021-04-14   53,070| 56  2021-11-16   76,424| 56  2021-10-21   7,348,292|
| 57  2021-04-16   61,478| 57  2021-10-30   44,987| 57  2021-11-17   52,979| 57  2021-11-04   76,382| 57  2021-11-12   7,308,856|
| 58  2021-11-05   61,449| 58  2021-11-01   44,910| 58  2021-11-01   52,918| 58  2024-02-27   76,263| 58  2021-11-13   7,306,367|
| 59  2021-11-01   61,302| 59  2021-10-18   44,838| 59  2021-10-29   52,901| 59  2021-10-29   76,240| 59  2024-02-12   7,236,341|
| 60  2021-10-16   61,253| 60  2021-10-22   44,829| 60  2021-11-06   52,855| 60  2021-10-18   76,120| 60  2024-02-11   7,201,573|
| 61  2021-04-17   61,112| 61  2021-10-29   44,777| 61  2021-10-31   52,770| 61  2021-10-22   76,108| 61  2021-11-02   7,147,281|
| 62  2021-10-31   61,085| 62  2021-04-16   44,697| 62  2021-10-16   52,735| 62  2021-10-30   76,096| 62  2021-10-19   7,145,435|
| 63  2021-10-23   61,064| 63  2024-02-27   44,683| 63  2021-04-15   52,624| 63  2021-11-01   75,587| 63  2021-11-03   7,143,007|
| 64  2021-11-06   60,862| 64  2021-11-17   44,545| 64  2021-11-21   52,553| 64  2021-11-06   75,573| 64  2021-10-25   7,132,455|
| 65  2021-11-16   60,734| 65  2021-10-31   44,468| 65  2021-10-23   52,418| 65  2021-11-17   75,501| 65  2021-10-22   7,079,476|
| 66  2021-10-17   60,685| 66  2021-10-16   44,438| 66  2021-04-13   52,316| 66  2021-10-31   75,368| 66  2021-11-07   7,069,993|
| 67  2021-10-24   60,481| 67  2021-04-17   44,411| 67  2021-11-20   52,158| 67  2021-04-12   75,200| 67  2024-02-10   7,067,392|
| 68  2021-03-14   60,429| 68  2021-10-23   44,339| 68  2021-10-17   52,084| 68  2021-03-14   75,116| 68  2021-10-26   7,043,769|
| 69  2024-02-28   60,403| 69  2021-11-21   44,086| 69  2021-10-24   52,077| 69  2021-04-10   75,092| 69  2021-10-18   7,043,182|
| 70  2021-04-12   60,169| 70  2021-10-17   44,071| 70  2024-02-27   52,038| 70  2021-10-23   75,086| 70  2024-02-09   7,038,000|
| 71  2021-10-15   60,134| 71  2021-10-15   44,049| 71  2021-11-25   51,877| 71  2021-10-16   75,024| 71  2021-10-29   7,023,415|
| 72  2021-10-28   60,131| 72  2021-10-24   44,019| 72  2021-10-15   51,847| 72  2021-10-28   74,847| 72  2021-10-30   7,018,311|
| 73  2021-04-10   60,037| 73  2021-11-25   43,942| 73  2021-10-28   51,839| 73  2021-10-17   74,685| 73  2021-11-04   7,006,457|
| 74  2021-11-17   59,813| 74  2021-10-28   43,924| 74  2021-11-18   51,590| 74  2021-10-24   74,665| 74  2021-11-16   6,994,031|
| 75  2021-04-11   59,797| 75  2021-04-12   43,891| 75  2021-04-16   51,450| 75  2021-04-11   74,617| 75  2021-10-16   6,981,390|
| 76  2021-03-13   59,670| 76  2021-11-20   43,854| 76  2021-04-17   51,332| 76  2021-11-21   74,348| 76  2021-11-05   6,973,312|
| 77  2021-04-02   59,378| 77  2021-04-10   43,717| 77  2021-11-29   51,146| 77  2021-04-02   74,253| 77  2021-11-01   6,962,929|
| 78  2021-10-27   59,370| 78  2021-04-11   43,692| 78  2021-10-27   51,095| 78  2021-10-15   74,154| 78  2021-10-31   6,948,980|
| 79  2021-11-21   59,185| 79  2021-03-14   43,475| 79  2021-11-22   50,953| 79  2021-11-25   74,122| 79  2021-10-17   6,943,900|
| 80  2021-04-01   58,826| 80  2021-11-29   43,273| 80  2021-11-30   50,771| 80  2021-03-31   74,064| 80  2021-11-06   6,932,924|
| 81  2021-03-20   58,820| 81  2021-12-01   43,244| 81  2021-12-01   50,746| 81  2021-03-13   73,985| 81  2021-10-23   6,910,966|
| 82  2021-11-20   58,791| 82  2021-11-30   43,216| 82  2021-11-23   50,533| 82  2021-04-01   73,916| 82  2021-10-15   6,891,964|
| 83  2021-11-18   58,687| 83  2021-11-18   43,185| 83  2021-11-24   50,530| 83  2021-03-30   73,818| 83  2021-10-28   6,877,664|
| 84  2021-05-08   58,665| 84  2021-10-27   43,090| 84  2021-04-12   50,500| 84  2021-11-18   73,751| 84  2021-11-17   6,863,369|
| 85  2021-03-31   58,640| 85  2021-03-13   42,971| 85  2021-04-02   50,437| 85  2021-04-03   73,740| 85  2021-10-24   6,857,809|
| 86  2021-04-03   58,586| 86  2021-04-02   42,897| 86  2021-11-19   50,424| 86  2021-11-20   73,707| 86  2021-04-15   6,854,791|
| 87  2021-03-18   58,586| 87  2021-03-30   42,723| 87  2021-04-11   50,165| 87  2021-03-20   73,606| 87  2021-04-14   6,848,291|
| 88  2021-03-30   58,473| 88  2021-11-22   42,702| 88  2021-12-02   50,090| 88  2021-10-27   73,529| 88  2021-04-13   6,779,926|
| 89  2021-11-25   58,316| 89  2021-04-03   42,666| 89  2021-03-14   50,060| 89  2021-11-29   73,255| 89  2021-11-21   6,765,294|
| 90  2021-04-06   58,307| 90  2021-04-01   42,611| 90  2021-04-01   50,047| 90  2021-12-01   73,139| 90  2024-01-11   6,755,006|
| 91  2021-03-19   58,307| 91  2021-11-19   42,608| 91  2021-04-10   50,028| 91  2021-04-05   73,062| 91  2021-11-25   6,752,466|
| 92  2021-04-05   58,289| 92  2021-11-24   42,606| 92  2021-03-31   49,986| 92  2021-03-19   72,964| 92  2021-10-27   6,747,999|
| 93  2021-04-09   58,229| 93  2021-11-23   42,586| 93  2021-04-03   49,924| 93  2021-11-30   72,952| 93  2024-01-09   6,718,792|
| 94  2021-05-03   57,906| 94  2021-03-31   42,565| 94  2021-03-30   49,886| 94  2021-03-18   72,857| 94  2021-04-16   6,672,481|
| 95  2021-05-09   57,902| 95  2021-03-20   42,564| 95  2021-10-14   49,677| 95  2021-04-09   72,705| 95  2021-11-18   6,665,087|
| 96  2021-05-01   57,825| 96  2021-04-09   42,562| 96  2021-03-20   49,510| 96  2021-04-06   72,601| 96  2021-11-20   6,663,602|
| 97  2021-11-29   57,636| 97  2021-12-02   42,556| 97  2021-04-06   49,399| 97  2021-04-04   72,405| 97  2024-01-10   6,656,677|
| 98  2021-10-14   57,623| 98  2021-05-08   42,196| 98  2021-04-05   49,340| 98  2021-04-08   72,405| 98  2024-02-08   6,653,223|
| 99  2021-04-04   57,572| 99  2021-04-05   42,174| 99  2021-03-13   49,251| 99  2021-12-02   72,350| 99  2021-04-17   6,636,308|
| 100 2021-11-30   57,431| 100 2021-04-06   42,145| 100 2021-12-03   49,233| 100 2021-03-29   72,283| 100 2021-04-10   6,602,905|
|                                                    *  Chart  Legends  *                                                       |
|                                                          GoBTCGo™                                                             |

  Korean Wan               Australian Dollar    Ukrainian Hryvnia      Indonesian Rupiah          Bitstamp Exchange
| #  Korbit         KRW/BTC| #  btcmarkets AUD/BTC| #  exmo         UAH/BTC| #  bitcoin.co.id    IDR/BTC| #  BTC vol  in MUSD|
| 1  2024-03-13 102,906,314| 1  2024-03-13 110,274| 1  2024-03-31 3,131,331| 1  2024-03-13 1,137,256,566| 1  2021-01-11 1,369|
| 2  2024-03-14 102,536,179| 2  2024-03-14 109,055| 2  2024-03-13 3,116,126| 2  2024-03-14 1,127,298,584| 2  2021-05-19 1,233|
| 3  2024-03-12 100,727,544| 3  2024-03-12 108,406| 3  2024-03-26 3,103,062| 3  2024-03-12 1,125,620,052| 3  2021-01-29 1,118|
| 4  2024-03-28 100,430,058| 4  2024-03-31 108,353| 4  2024-03-14 3,102,474| 4  2024-03-31 1,122,672,550| 4  2021-02-22   911|
| 5  2024-03-31 100,426,556| 5  2024-03-28 107,778| 5  2024-03-30 3,098,136| 5  2024-03-28 1,122,385,977| 5  2021-01-08   887|
| 6  2024-03-27  99,977,498| 6  2024-03-26 107,638| 6  2024-03-28 3,090,259| 6  2024-03-29 1,117,713,806| 6  2021-01-07   885|
| 7  2024-03-29  99,956,396| 7  2024-03-29 107,614| 7  2024-03-29 3,081,729| 7  2024-03-30 1,117,205,690| 7  2021-02-23   860|
| 8  2024-03-26  99,944,309| 8  2024-03-30 107,538| 8  2024-03-12 3,078,077| 8  2024-03-26 1,116,682,369| 8  2021-02-08   821|
| 9  2024-03-30  99,921,834| 9  2024-03-27 107,416| 9  2024-03-27 3,076,041| 9  2024-03-27 1,113,924,269| 9  2021-04-18   715|
|10  2024-03-11  99,061,991|10  2024-03-11 106,710|10  2024-03-11 3,025,483|10  2024-03-11 1,111,469,296|10  2021-01-04   698|
|11  2024-03-18  98,981,230|11  2024-03-25 105,264|11  2024-03-25 2,989,457|11  2024-03-10 1,092,466,537|11  2021-01-27   690|
|12  2024-03-16  98,862,342|12  2024-03-15 104,489|12  2024-03-15 2,985,598|12  2024-03-25 1,088,540,463|12  2021-01-21   686|
|13  2024-03-15  98,545,116|13  2024-03-10 104,261|13  2024-03-16 2,980,760|13  2024-03-15 1,078,551,453|13  2021-01-06   672|
|14  2024-03-25  97,999,981|14  2024-03-18 103,644|14  2024-03-18 2,942,723|14  2024-03-09 1,072,207,191|14  2021-01-12   635|
|15  2024-03-10  97,430,557|15  2024-03-09 103,016|15  2024-03-10 2,930,539|15  2024-03-16 1,071,804,845|15  2021-01-10   625|
|16  2024-03-21  96,696,602|16  2024-03-16 102,742|16  2024-03-09 2,916,167|16  2024-03-18 1,069,824,501|16  2021-05-20   586|
|17  2024-03-17  96,390,419|17  2024-03-08 102,289|17  2024-03-17 2,906,831|17  2024-03-08 1,059,272,262|17  2021-02-09   584|
|18  2024-03-09  95,752,764|18  2024-03-17 101,812|18  2024-03-21 2,901,687|18  2024-03-21 1,053,543,129|18  2021-04-23   578|
|19  2024-03-08  95,354,356|19  2024-03-21 101,782|19  2024-03-24 2,895,372|19  2024-03-17 1,048,851,519|19  2021-01-28   572|
|20  2024-03-24  94,667,582|20  2024-03-24 101,127|20  2024-03-08 2,883,646|20  2024-03-07 1,046,984,007|20  2021-01-02   560|
|21  2024-03-19  94,601,940|21  2024-03-07 100,720|21  2024-03-23 2,853,477|21  2024-03-05 1,042,046,783|21  2021-05-17   540|
|22  2024-03-20  94,171,848|22  2024-03-06 100,521|22  2024-03-07 2,850,128|22  2024-03-24 1,037,378,280|22  2021-01-22   534|
|23  2024-03-07  93,804,021|23  2024-03-05 100,180|23  2024-03-19 2,849,753|23  2024-03-06 1,031,633,250|23  2020-12-17   515|
|24  2024-03-22  93,765,781|24  2024-03-04  99,728|24  2024-03-22 2,835,188|24  2024-03-23 1,023,931,596|24  2021-05-21   502|
|25  2024-03-23  93,677,987|25  2024-03-23  99,196|25  2024-03-20 2,822,846|25  2024-03-04 1,022,271,226|25  2021-02-19   497|
|26  2024-03-05  93,392,755|26  2024-03-22  98,579|26  2024-03-06 2,800,297|26  2024-03-22 1,020,523,152|26  2021-01-15   497|
|27  2024-03-06  92,128,472|27  2024-03-19  98,053|27  2024-03-05 2,797,523|27  2024-03-20 1,006,601,747|27  2021-02-17   488|
|28  2024-03-04  90,956,110|28  2024-03-20  97,186|28  2024-03-04 2,749,515|28  2024-03-19 1,006,323,548|28  2024-03-05   481|
|29  2024-02-29  87,263,469|29  2024-03-03  95,640|29  2024-02-29 2,647,962|29  2024-03-03   981,273,659|29  2021-12-04   480|
|30  2024-03-01  87,005,240|30  2024-02-29  95,197|30  2024-03-03 2,640,336|30  2024-03-02   980,666,794|30  2021-01-05   479|
|31  2024-03-02  86,847,885|31  2024-03-02  94,989|31  2024-03-01 2,614,183|31  2024-02-29   977,830,867|31  2019-06-26   477|
|32  2024-03-03  86,480,962|32  2024-03-01  94,424|32  2024-03-02 2,595,011|32  2024-03-01   973,898,270|32  2021-01-13   475|
|33  2024-02-28  83,254,937|33  2024-02-28  91,659|33  2024-02-28 2,527,642|33  2021-11-09   958,934,608|33  2021-01-03   474|
|34  2021-11-09  81,030,984|34  2021-11-09  91,559|34  2024-02-27 2,397,987|34  2021-11-10   957,414,562|34  2022-05-12   464|
|35  2021-04-14  80,519,943|35  2021-11-10  90,186|35  2024-02-26 2,242,840|35  2024-02-28   943,894,379|35  2021-05-13   450|
|36  2021-11-10  80,311,918|36  2021-11-11  89,159|36  2024-02-20 2,232,996|36  2021-04-14   943,289,664|36  2021-03-15   441|
|37  2021-04-13  79,798,705|37  2021-11-08  88,749|37  2024-02-22 2,230,789|37  2021-04-15   935,383,862|37  2021-02-04   441|
|38  2021-11-08  79,513,722|38  2021-11-15  88,591|38  2024-02-21 2,228,297|38  2021-11-08   931,438,604|38  2021-02-11   440|
|39  2021-04-15  79,028,004|39  2021-11-14  88,378|39  2024-02-25 2,227,853|39  2021-11-11   931,156,995|39  2021-02-24   438|
|40  2021-11-11  78,973,000|40  2021-11-12  87,929|40  2024-02-16 2,227,640|40  2021-11-15   928,739,278|40  2021-02-10   432|
|41  2021-04-16  78,859,015|41  2021-11-13  87,605|41  2024-02-19 2,226,457|41  2021-04-13   926,900,388|41  2021-03-16   426|
|42  2021-11-15  78,390,671|42  2021-10-20  86,522|42  2024-02-15 2,224,385|42  2021-04-17   922,830,911|42  2021-01-20   424|
|43  2021-10-20  78,386,532|43  2024-02-27  86,210|43  2024-02-18 2,221,653|43  2021-11-14   922,311,824|43  2021-01-14   422|
|44  2021-11-14  78,331,344|44  2021-10-21  86,149|44  2024-02-23 2,214,462|44  2021-04-16   918,017,040|44  2021-04-22   418|
|45  2021-04-17  78,196,271|45  2021-10-19  84,492|45  2024-02-17 2,214,262|45  2021-11-12   917,077,324|45  2019-06-27   417|
|46  2021-11-12  78,150,595|46  2021-11-03  84,409|46  2024-02-24 2,208,803|46  2021-11-13   915,368,678|46  2021-02-16   410|
|47  2021-10-21  78,016,376|47  2021-11-07  84,238|47  2024-02-14 2,190,979|47  2021-10-20   914,712,645|47  2021-03-01   409|
|48  2021-04-12  77,992,841|48  2021-11-02  83,963|48  2024-02-13 2,132,007|48  2021-10-21   906,016,318|48  2021-02-25   395|
|49  2021-04-11  77,979,526|49  2021-10-25  83,724|49  2024-02-12 2,089,824|49  2021-04-12   899,334,103|49  2021-03-10   385|
|50  2021-11-13  77,858,655|50  2021-10-18  83,554|50  2024-02-11 2,071,170|50  2021-11-02   893,835,128|50  2021-05-24   381|
|51  2021-04-06  77,328,939|51  2021-11-04  83,497|51  2024-01-09 2,065,314|51  2021-11-03   893,481,918|51  2021-04-14   380|
|52  2021-04-10  77,220,447|52  2021-10-22  83,252|52  2024-02-10 2,039,352|52  2021-11-07   890,374,099|52  2021-02-26   378|
|53  2024-02-27  77,147,017|53  2021-04-14  83,135|53  2024-02-09 2,017,294|53  2021-04-11   887,760,243|53  2021-03-24   377|
|54  2021-10-19  76,476,076|54  2021-11-16  83,125|54  2024-01-11 2,015,224|54  2021-11-04   885,574,429|54  2021-05-10   375|
|55  2021-10-18  76,188,816|55  2021-11-05  82,913|55  2024-01-10 1,994,302|55  2021-11-05   885,217,925|55  2021-03-11   374|
|56  2021-10-25  75,999,202|56  2021-10-16  82,878|56  2024-01-08 1,991,831|56  2021-10-19   884,720,372|56  2021-01-26   370|
|57  2021-04-05  75,966,891|57  2021-10-26  82,619|57  2024-01-12 1,971,699|57  2021-04-10   883,604,340|57  2021-03-13   369|
|58  2021-10-22  75,345,954|58  2021-11-06  82,576|58  2024-01-07 1,950,874|58  2021-10-25   882,676,708|58  2021-03-22   368|
|59  2021-11-07  75,327,159|59  2021-11-17  82,228|59  2024-01-06 1,943,856|59  2021-11-16   879,182,607|59  2020-11-26   367|
|60  2021-10-16  75,161,092|60  2021-10-30  82,132|60  2024-01-05 1,938,807|60  2024-02-27   878,635,480|60  2019-10-26   364|
|61  2021-11-16  75,019,826|61  2021-11-21  81,995|61  2024-01-02 1,914,691|61  2021-10-22   877,603,582|61  2024-02-28   362|
|62  2021-10-17  74,835,362|62  2021-10-23  81,978|62  2024-02-08 1,903,747|62  2021-10-26   876,997,023|62  2021-11-18   362|
|63  2021-04-09  74,769,710|63  2021-10-17  81,881|63  2024-01-03 1,896,100|63  2021-11-06   875,188,125|63  2020-03-12   360|
|64  2021-10-23  74,706,793|64  2021-10-29  81,879|64  2024-01-04 1,895,769|64  2021-11-01   875,108,335|64  2024-03-11   359|
|65  2021-04-18  74,463,170|65  2021-11-01  81,762|65  2024-01-13 1,891,327|65  2021-10-29   874,549,110|65  2020-12-27   358|
|66  2021-10-26  74,454,570|66  2021-04-13  81,753|66  2024-01-30 1,887,415|66  2021-04-19   874,177,961|66  2021-04-16   355|
|67  2021-04-03  74,120,924|67  2021-04-15  81,687|67  2024-01-14 1,886,326|67  2021-04-18   873,803,637|67  2021-04-13   355|
|68  2021-10-29  74,057,800|68  2021-10-31  81,618|68  2024-01-17 1,880,475|68  2021-10-30   873,459,796|68  2021-10-18   355|
|69  2021-11-06  74,057,726|69  2021-11-20  81,415|69  2024-01-16 1,875,258|69  2021-03-14   871,979,768|69  2021-03-25   347|
|70  2021-10-24  74,043,673|70  2021-10-24  81,403|70  2024-01-18 1,870,099|70  2021-10-18   869,787,146|70  2021-05-12   347|
|71  2021-10-30  73,841,337|71  2024-02-26  81,127|71  2024-01-31 1,867,914|71  2021-10-31   868,760,868|71  2021-01-09   344|
|72  2021-11-03  73,826,751|72  2021-11-29  80,984|72  2024-01-15 1,864,523|72  2021-04-06   866,427,324|72  2021-02-06   344|
|73  2021-11-05  73,754,465|73  2021-11-18  80,886|73  2024-02-02 1,861,927|73  2021-10-23   863,515,694|73  2024-03-19   341|
|74  2021-11-02  73,662,363|74  2021-11-25  80,849|74  2024-02-03 1,850,068|74  2021-04-09   862,181,846|74  2021-07-26   339|
|75  2021-11-04  73,571,283|75  2021-10-15  80,688|75  2024-02-01 1,843,082|75  2021-10-16   861,964,938|75  2024-03-15   338|
|76  2021-04-07  73,504,642|76  2021-11-30  80,478|76  2024-01-21 1,840,612|76  2021-10-28   858,895,865|76  2021-01-25   336|
|77  2021-04-19  73,261,125|77  2021-12-01  80,340|77  2024-01-19 1,839,902|77  2021-11-17   858,708,308|77  2022-05-11   336|
|78  2021-11-17  73,237,874|78  2021-04-16  80,193|78  2024-01-20 1,838,102|78  2021-04-20   858,593,930|78  2020-12-30   331|
|79  2021-04-04  73,175,184|79  2024-02-15  80,017|79  2024-01-29 1,836,916|79  2021-10-24   857,391,349|79  2021-02-15   329|
|80  2021-11-21  73,092,332|80  2021-10-28  79,993|80  2024-02-04 1,832,768|80  2021-04-02   856,190,312|80  2021-03-17   329|
|81  2021-10-31  72,998,674|81  2021-04-17  79,952|81  2024-02-05 1,823,681|81  2021-03-13   855,696,184|81  2021-09-07   328|
|82  2021-04-08  72,993,090|82  2021-12-02  79,951|82  2024-01-28 1,823,409|82  2021-05-10   854,412,558|82  2021-02-18   328|
|83  2021-10-15  72,990,150|83  2024-02-16  79,919|83  2024-02-07 1,812,124|83  2021-03-20   854,351,288|83  2021-04-19   326|
|84  2021-04-02  72,879,589|84  2024-02-19  79,841|84  2024-02-06 1,809,536|84  2021-04-01   853,766,278|84  2021-04-20   325|
|85  2021-11-25  72,785,318|85  2024-02-18  79,532|85  2024-01-01 1,799,908|85  2021-10-17   853,449,791|85  2021-03-18   323|
|86  2021-11-20  72,626,365|86  2021-04-12  79,378|86  2023-12-21 1,799,548|86  2021-05-09   853,366,573|86  2021-02-03   322|
|87  2021-10-28  72,517,770|87  2024-02-20  79,370|87  2024-01-27 1,797,192|87  2021-04-05   853,085,425|87  2021-05-23   320|
|88  2021-10-27  72,459,843|88  2021-11-22  79,302|88  2023-12-22 1,794,294|88  2021-05-08   852,678,677|88  2021-04-26   320|
|89  2021-11-01  72,349,164|89  2021-10-27  79,175|89  2024-01-22 1,793,052|89  2021-03-18   852,190,648|89  2024-03-20   318|
|90  2021-11-29  72,242,388|90  2024-02-17  79,093|90  2023-12-24 1,788,936|90  2021-04-03   851,211,614|90  2021-05-04   317|
|91  2021-11-18  72,242,074|91  2024-02-25  78,925|91  2023-12-23 1,787,877|91  2021-10-27   850,673,080|91  2021-03-03   313|
|92  2024-02-19  72,034,442|92  2021-11-24  78,896|92  2023-12-06 1,787,577|92  2021-03-31   850,230,377|92  2021-05-05   309|
|93  2024-02-16  71,819,407|93  2024-02-14  78,825|93  2023-12-25 1,786,531|93  2021-04-07   848,667,832|93  2021-04-07   309|
|94  2024-02-20  71,779,810|94  2021-11-19  78,795|94  2023-12-09 1,786,198|94  2021-04-08   848,201,674|94  2021-03-29   307|
|95  2024-02-26  71,715,483|95  2021-11-23  78,719|95  2023-12-07 1,780,690|95  2021-05-03   847,388,573|95  2020-12-16   305|
|96  2024-02-22  71,687,558|96  2024-02-22  78,709|96  2023-12-08 1,778,604|96  2021-03-19   847,332,240|96  2021-06-22   305|
|97  2024-02-21  71,647,971|97  2021-04-11  78,678|97  2023-12-20 1,778,155|97  2021-11-21   844,971,979|97  2022-06-13   304|
|98  2021-04-01  71,551,064|98  2024-02-21  78,546|98  2023-12-31 1,777,412|98  2021-11-18   844,183,867|98  2024-03-08   302|
|99  2024-02-18  71,381,441|99  2021-12-03  78,536|99  2023-12-26 1,774,712|99  2021-04-04   843,166,238|99  2021-06-09   300|
|100 2024-02-15  71,285,146|100 2021-04-10  78,536|100 2024-01-26 1,770,724|100 2021-03-30   843,115,845|100 2020-05-11   299|
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Moving Average VWAP, date listed is final day in span | Monthly VWAP = sum of daily vwaps / days in month
|  7 Day MA             30 Day MA           200 Day MA
|  #     7 DMA  USD/BTC|  #     30 DMA USD/BTC| #     200 DMA USD/BTC| #   Monthly VWAP  |
|  1  2024-03-15  70391|  1  2024-03-31  67677| 1   2022-02-20  49377| 1   2024-03  67497|
|  2  2024-03-14  70384|  2  2024-03-30  67393| 2   2022-02-19  49376| 2   2021-11  60609|
|  3  2024-03-16  70236|  3  2024-03-29  67130| 3   2022-02-21  49370| 3   2021-10  57726|
|  4  2024-03-31  70035|  4  2024-03-28  66813| 4   2022-02-18  49367| 4   2021-04  57025|
|  5  2024-03-17  69862|  5  2024-03-27  66350| 5   2022-02-17  49364| 5   2021-03  54654|
|  6  2024-03-13  69799|  6  2024-03-26  65787| 6   2022-02-16  49359| 6   2024-02  49615|
|  7  2024-03-18  69321|  7  2024-03-25  65167| 7   2022-02-22  49349| 7   2021-12  49363|
|  8  2024-03-30  69295|  8  2024-03-24  64572| 8   2022-02-15  49347| 8   2021-05  46733|
|  9  2024-03-12  68859|  9  2024-03-23  64092| 9   2022-02-14  49327| 9   2021-02  46103|
| 10  2024-03-29  68519| 10  2024-03-22  63659| 10  2022-02-23  49322| 10  2021-09  45953|
| 11  2024-03-19  68306| 11  2024-03-21  63226| 11  2022-02-13  49315| 11  2021-08  45563|
| 12  2024-03-11  67967| 12  2024-03-20  62747| 12  2022-02-12  49303| 12  2024-01  42881|
| 13  2024-03-28  67717| 13  2021-11-16  62747| 13  2022-02-11  49280| 13  2023-12  42451|
| 14  2024-03-10  67197| 14  2021-11-15  62745| 14  2022-02-24  49279| 14  2022-03  41962|
| 15  2024-03-27  67103| 15  2021-11-17  62685| 15  2022-02-10  49256| 15  2022-04  41555|
| 16  2024-03-20  67002| 16  2021-11-14  62618| 16  2022-02-25  49248| 16  2022-01  41084|
| 17  2024-03-21  66292| 17  2021-11-18  62535| 17  2022-02-26  49216| 17  2022-02  40606|
| 18  2024-03-26  66241| 18  2021-11-13  62474| 18  2022-02-09  49206| 18  2023-11  36538|
| 19  2024-03-09  66230| 19  2024-03-19  62358| 19  2022-02-27  49176| 19  2021-06  35706|
| 20  2024-03-22  65725| 20  2021-11-12  62258| 20  2022-02-08  49155| 20  2021-01  34437|
| 21  2024-03-25  65372| 21  2021-11-19  62252| 21  2022-02-28  49155| 21  2021-07  34246|
| 22  2024-03-23  65336| 22  2021-11-20  62062| 22  2022-03-01  49141| 22  2022-05  31737|
| 23  2024-03-08  65321| 23  2021-11-11  61987| 23  2022-03-02  49127| 23  2023-07  30088|
| 24  2021-11-14  65272| 24  2021-11-21  61965| 24  2022-03-03  49109| 24  2023-10  29692|
| 25  2021-11-15  65172| 25  2024-03-18  61946| 25  2022-02-07  49099| 25  2023-04  28850|
| 26  2024-03-24  65162| 26  2021-11-22  61841| 26  2022-03-04  49079| 26  2023-08  27878|
| 27  2021-11-13  64952| 27  2021-11-23  61725| 27  2022-03-05  49045| 27  2023-06  27697|
| 28  2021-11-12  64487| 28  2021-11-10  61701| 28  2022-02-06  49044| 28  2023-05  27474|
| 29  2024-03-07  64446| 29  2021-11-24  61524| 29  2022-03-06  49014| 29  2023-09  26307|
| 30  2021-11-16  64208| 30  2024-03-17  61411| 30  2022-02-05  48992| 30  2023-03  25074|
| 31  2021-11-11  64137| 31  2021-11-25  61404| 31  2022-03-07  48978| 31  2022-06  24424|
| 32  2024-03-06  63721| 32  2021-11-09  61386| 32  2022-02-04  48933| 32  2023-02  23309|
| 33  2021-11-10  63688| 33  2021-11-26  61269| 33  2022-03-08  48931| 33  2022-08  22476|
| 34  2021-11-17  63287| 34  2021-11-27  61083| 34  2022-03-09  48894| 34  2020-12  21824|
| 35  2021-11-09  63167| 35  2021-11-08  60973| 35  2022-02-03  48893| 35  2022-07  21492|
| 36  2024-03-05  62877| 36  2024-03-16  60925| 36  2022-02-02  48868| 36  2023-01  20146|
| 37  2021-10-25  62819| 37  2021-11-28  60863| 37  2022-03-10  48848| 37  2022-09  19783|
| 38  2021-10-22  62722| 38  2021-11-29  60731| 38  2022-02-01  48837| 38  2022-10  19630|
| 39  2021-10-23  62695| 39  2021-11-07  60610| 39  2022-01-31  48802| 39  2022-11  17643|
| 40  2021-10-24  62666| 40  2021-11-30  60609| 40  2022-03-11  48793| 40  2022-12  16950|
| 41  2021-10-26  62637| 41  2021-12-01  60478| 41  2022-01-30  48773| 41  2020-11  16534|
| 42  2021-11-08  62448| 42  2024-03-15  60420| 42  2022-01-29  48746| 42  2020-10  11846|
| 43  2021-10-21  62446| 43  2021-11-06  60360| 43  2022-03-12  48745| 43  2020-08  11629|
| 44  2021-11-18  62395| 44  2021-12-02  60286| 44  2022-01-28  48721| 44  2020-09  10634|
| 45  2021-11-07  61810| 45  2021-11-05  60140| 45  2022-01-27  48703| 45  2019-07  10622|
| 46  2021-11-04  61767| 46  2021-12-03  60032| 46  2022-03-13  48697| 46  2019-08  10598|
| 47  2021-11-05  61755| 47  2021-11-04  59875| 47  2022-01-26  48691| 47  2019-09   9766|
| 48  2021-10-27  61732| 48  2024-03-14  59853| 48  2022-01-25  48671| 48  2020-02   9640|
| 49  2024-03-04  61688| 49  2021-12-04  59567| 49  2022-03-14  48655| 49  2020-07   9553|
| 50  2021-11-06  61649| 50  2021-11-03  59495| 50  2022-01-24  48654| 50  2020-06   9453|
| 51  2021-04-17  61566| 51  2021-12-05  59156| 51  2022-01-23  48645| 51  2019-06   9342|
| 52  2021-11-03  61530| 52  2024-03-13  59125| 52  2022-01-22  48640| 52  2020-05   9244|
| 53  2021-10-20  61463| 53  2021-11-02  59018| 53  2022-01-21  48635| 53  2019-10   8382|
| 54  2021-11-19  61439| 54  2021-12-06  58758| 54  2022-01-20  48614| 54  2019-11   8328|
| 55  2021-04-16  61412| 55  2021-11-01  58543| 55  2022-03-15  48612| 55  2020-01   8326|
| 56  2021-10-31  61195| 56  2021-12-07  58387| 56  2022-01-19  48579| 56  2019-12   7247|
| 57  2021-10-30  61109| 57  2024-03-12  58332| 57  2022-03-16  48569| 57  2019-05   7244|
| 58  2021-10-28  61108| 58  2021-04-17  58153| 58  2022-01-18  48542| 58  2020-04   7198|
| 59  2021-11-02  61068| 59  2021-10-31  58096| 59  2022-03-17  48530| 59  2020-03   6906|
| 60  2021-10-29  61032| 60  2021-04-16  58069| 60  2022-01-17  48499| 60  2019-04   5180|
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All time high monthly vwap!

 You lose merits by the word so I couldn't think of a better person to quote than JJG who, by the way, I appreciate for the time and effort he puts into his posts; sharing his wisdom freely.

We don't need to know all of the specifics in order to attempt to assign realistic probabilities that we believe to be the case at the time that we make the prediction and with the information that we have at the time that we make the prediction.

Of course, if we are predicting 10 years out, then it takes quite a long time to find out which one of the scenarios ends up playing out and the one that plays out ends up becoming 100% and the others become 0%.. but we don't know until it happens.

Surely, we can run the same experiment with a shorter-timeline, and frequently we will see that even the scenario that we considered most likely to happen ends up not happening, but then surely if we divide them up into enough subdivisions, we might still see that we can group some of them and see that we might be directionally correct, but just not correct about the exact number.

Also on a 10 year timeline, there could be some significant happenings that end up contributing to our needs to make considerable changes to our numbers in certain ranges that we had previously selected.  

Let's go back to my original prediction.

Let say for example that in the next 6 months, bitcoin prices go to somewhere in the ballpark of mid $100ks, but then they spend the next 6-9 months bouncing around between $12k and $180k, so then those subsequent facts that were not known or realized at the time that I made the prediction would likely cause me to change some aspects of the prediction, even though I am still stuck with what I had said earlier, I can still revise my prediction for that future date that has become 9 years rather 10 years.. but then at the same time, I could also stick with my earlier numbers and conclude that either not enough time or enough significant events had occured to cause me to tweak my numbers.. and surely, since I was pretty specific and comprehensive in my numbers there are likely going to be some of the ranges that I might want to change or tweak at some point between now and 10 years from now.. and surely when we get to be around 8 years down the road, we are likely going to be moving closer to one or another outcome in which all of the others might either no longer seem relevant or maybe their numbers would go down to very low amounts based on likelihoods changing quite significantly.

For sure if the BTC price were in the range of $2 million to $10 million 8 years from now.. let's say that it is mostly bounding between $4 million and $6 million between 7 and 8 hears from now.. so then at that point, it would seem a quite waste of time for me to maintain such granular breakdown of the prices between 1) less than $10 and between $500k and $1million and the various points in between. I could probably reduce those 8 categories into 2-3 categories and while at the same time attempt to get more specific on categories 9, 10 and 11...

and this is not playing around with models and trying to be correct, because in the end, who gives any shits about whether I am correct or not, since my correctness hardly matters as much as some of the preparations that I might make that attempt to account for all of the possibilities in either price direction from whatever place I am at in the current moment, and I can create my plans and continue to execute my plans in such ways that attempt to continuously account for various scenarios in either price direction.



I personally believe that you are continuing to assign too much weight to some kinds of presumptions that the BTC price has to go up, and yeah, sure my base case is also that BTC price is going up forever, laura.. but still, it is neither inevitable and it is not even likely as high of a percentage as you might compromise and suggest that it is ONLY 98% rather than 100%.. and so even though you are free to believe and do whatever you like, I still think that you are living in a fantasy land if you are suggesting that the odds of up are 99% and the odds of down ar only 1% or whatever other seemingly outrageously biased framework you are maintaining in your thinking about the matter.

Yeah, sure I understand that many of us have hard times NOT thinking in black and white, because ultimately when the future ends up happening, some outcome will have happened to the exclusion of all of the other outcomes, but then we still might need some nuance in terms of how we outline the potential outcomes, whether we are talking 10 years down the road or whether we are just dealing with BTC price dynamics in a cycle by cycle basis.

Yes, I agree that bitcoin is amongst the best if not the best investment that we can make, and so in that sense it is an asymmetric bet to the upside in which there are great odds of ongoing and persistent upside performance, so the most that we can lose is 100% as long as we do not engage in leveraging and other forms of gambling/trading.

But having so many favorable aspects, any of who expect to be able to profit from our bitcoin, we have to be able to stay in the game and to balance our exposure to account for decent number of scenarios, whether short term of projecting further out, such as 10 years or longer.


Ok. sure, you can account for what people say, but in the end you have to figure out what you are going to do and to assign your own probabilities to a variety of scenarios.. whether we are talking about 2024 or 2030.. otherwise what are you doing?  who are you following?  People say all kinds of stuff that may or may not be very well thought out, and even $100k within 2024 is currently seeming a bit bearish.. same is true with the $1 million by 2030.. but whatever.. I don't have any problem accounting for what people say and what might be their various bases for what they are saying.


This thread is about price.


Ok... and if you consider yourself to be an investor rather than a trader, then where are you at in your investment journey?  Are you in your accumulation phase, or have you gotten enough.. and if you feel that you have enough, then sure, there are likely several kinds of considerations in regards to managing your BTC holdings.. including where you might be holding all or most of it, and then perhaps if you might have some BTC that you keep in hot wallets so that you are potentially using it from time to time.. .. and if you are not at a point of using your BTC you still might move your BTC from time to time in terms of places that you might accumulate it and then where you might later move it in terms of holding some of it or most of it in cold storage..


We have been $70k and supra $70k for the last couple of weeks, and so you are not being very adventurous there.. and surely it seems that you are just suggesting BTC prices will stay in the same ranges that it has been .. which yeah, sure that is fair enough since the halvening is only 3-ish weeks away.. .. and I frequently consider one of the safest predictions is to stick with the current price, even if there could be some variation.. give or take 5-10% or perhaps more.


Sounds pretty bearish.. but hey.. whatever.

I would suggest $120k to $180k in 2024 and then reassess from there to see (or verify) if buy support is able to keep up.


Also pretty bearish.. It seem that prices in 2025 are going to be higher (at least the cycle top likely to be in 2025), and so the bearish cycle is not too likely to come before 2026.. but still anything can happen.. .. and so maybe the cycle low might end up coming back down to challenge $100k-ish.. but not necessarily go back into 5 digits..

And, hey don't get me wrong.. I hardly give any shits.. I am just suggesting what I consider to be fairly likely scenarios.. which maybe are only in the 10%-20% range, but they still would be considered as my own base scenario.. .. even though financially and psychologically I am ongoingly prepared for BTC prices to go in either direction... that is part of the reason that I still have buy orders down to $20k-ish even though I consider it unlikely that anytime between now and the end of 2025 we are going to have BTC prices less than 20% from the 200-WMA.. and the 200-WMA continues to move up.. which you can see in my entry-level fuck you status chart and also in the sustainable withdrawal tool.


You hardly can claim to be bullish, and surely, I have no problem with considering and maintaining conservative financial preparations.

When I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, my hope was to be able to average something like a 6% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), yet of course, the first 3 years of my being in bitcoin included a lot of negative and/or flat price performance, so it may well be questionable the extent to which BTC was going to be able to meet such hopes.. but with any investment, we frequently will need to prepare for down periods, and surely if you look at the charts, by the end of 2015, there started to form decently good on-the-ground evidence (price performance) reasons for hope and recovery of the prices to go from being in the negative to at least break even end even starting to be positive, and surely the period between November 2015 and May 2016 also seemed like a pretty long period of just waiting to see if there might be some abilities for my portfolio to go into profitabilities, and so it can take a while and there can be some value in terms of NOT establishing unrealistic upside expectations. and/or even taking those upside expectations for granted...

So sure in some sense you are way too bearish in your 10-year prediction (also considering that to be around 50% gold's market cap**), but at the same time, you are too narrow in your description regarding where you expect the BTC price to be..  

** - a little side tangent.. BTC is about 1,000x more valuable than gold, yet it is currently around 1/10th gold's price.  Sure it could take 50-200 years or longer for these prices to play out, but still anyone who at least recognizes the way the markets are pricing these assets should be able to recognize, appreciate and/or take advantage of such likely ongoing arbitrage opportunity.


It is good that you are trying to grapple with the various scenarios, and I surely understand that sometimes the descriptions could end up becoming a bit confusing - so yeah, I am not trying to be overly harsh on you or any of the other guys if maybe sometimes my communication of the ideas might not always be clear or easy to understand.

We are not always going to agree, either.. and sometimes the presumptions might not be great or the examples might be read for making a point than what I might have had been attempting to make..

If you don't agree with some of the presumptions or if you believe that there might be some better or more accurate comparisons, then surely you should feel free to present those kind of ideas.

There can be some advantages in terms of attempting to standardize some of the examples, even though with any example, guys are likely to NOT follow the examples with exactness, and they are likely to deviate from the examples for a variety of reasons including possible irregularities in their cashflow or their expenses, or even sometimes, they might decide that they want to try to trade some kind of a price move and sometimes they might get lucky and other times they might regret some of the ways that they might deviate, yet we learn from our own ways of putting these kinds of ideas to practice... .. So even though personally, I would not want to get into talking about all the so many ways that guys might deviate, I tend to prefer trying to stick with some of the more sound of practices that might end up showing differences between whimpy and aggressive approaches, and even when a guy actually goes to apply his own approach from one perspective or another, he may well realize that he might have had gone overboard in one direction or another.. so then he might learn from his own mistakes, but hopefully mistakes that are not so bad as to take any of us out of the game.. since it is better that we might make some small mistakes rather than ending up having to start over because we end up losing most or all of our bitcoin.


That is one of the great things about bitcoin, and surely I frequently recommend that guys try to be as aggressive as they are able to be in terms of accumulating bitcoin, there still is the practicality of the matter that we might have limitations in terms of how aggressive that we are able to be in terms of our own financial/psychological resources, and we also might find that we have to go through some steps of getting our finances and psychology in order prior to becoming more aggressive, so in that regard, it likely would be better to make sure that we are not overdoing our level of aggressiveness, and no one is going to feel sorry for us or help us out if we end up screwing up and doing more than we should have had done.. so in that regard, we might want to consider that whenever we choose to engage in some levels of risk, that we are both recognizing the risk and ready, willing and able to accept the consequences if some of the risk-taking that we employ does not play in our favor... and so sometimes we might be tempted to play around with some ways to try to get more BTC than we might be able to get by more normal and strict DCA ways... and so then if we lose 1% to 5% of our BTC, we might consider it worth it.. but sometimes it is better to just not go down the risk taking mode until you have gotten to a certain BTC stack size through more traditional, normal and strictly conservative ways.. and then once your stack is of a significant size there could be some ways that a bit can be shaved off for extra experimentations.


Yeah, some members might have more financial abilities than the hypothetical guys and other members might have to divide the number by 10 in order for the hypothetical to be realistic or to make sense in comparison to their own circumstances.


These might not be easy choices for guy2 because once he heard about and figured out bitcoin enough to want to invest into it, he may well want to aggressively invest into it, and maybe he even wants to get his bitcoin investment to become 25% of his current portfolio size, and if his current portfolio size is $150k, then 25% of that would be $37,500, but he really ONLY has around $200 per week of investible income that is coming in, so whether he just starts to DCA into BTC using the totality of that $200 per week or he takes from his current portfolio, these are dilemmas, including that many guys do not want to get taxable events upon merely moving value around that they believe that they are not actually realizing the gain, even though it becomes taxable.. and also if he has been investing through both employer matched accounts and tax advantaged accounts, then he might have some dilemmas about how to get bitcoin exposure. .. .so he would have to be particularly motivated to get BTC directly in order to forgo the tax deferred status of the accounts.. and the employer matching..  

And, sure it could be the case that we are talking about a guy who does not have any employer matching and/or tax deferred status on the accounts, so it would be easier for that kind of a guy to just move his 200 per week from his traditional investment and into bitcoin.. so then if he is buying BTC at $200 per week, it is still going to take him more than 3 years (around $10.4k per year - and $31,200 after 3 years) to get up to $37,500 invested into BTC.. and in the meantime, both the size of his total investment portfolio and also his BTC value would have changed through that time that he is investing into BTC at $200 per week. and he might start to feel that he needs to invest, 4-5 years into bitcoin at that rate before he starts to feel that he is at a proper BTC allocation level, even though he might value from how much he is putting into BTC rather than how much it is worth,

and if BTC continues to outperform traditional assets like it has historically done, then he will end up having way higher than 25% allocations into bitcoin.. which surely, I personally don't have any problem with letting your winners ride rather than letting an overperformance of bitcoin to deter continued investment into it. at least until reaching the initial investment allocation targets.. and then also once he might start to feel comfortable with his having had reached his allocation target, then at that point, he might revert back to diversifying what he is investing into - even though his thoughts on the ideas of how to invest and how to diversify might have had changed after he presumptively spends 3-5 years investing into bitcoin at $200 per week... yet when it comes time for him to reassess his investment approach, he is going to end up being informed by his likely having had looked into BTC and also reconsidered investment matters in the prior 3-5 years.


There surely are going to be personally circumscribed parameters in regards to how aggressive a guy really can be, so in that regard, I still think that the most important factor just ends up being putting time into the market and just continuing to plug away, whether you are able to do the higher amounts of 15% to 25% or maybe you are not even able to do 10%, but you still keep plugging away and doing what you can, and live your life in the meantime.. and if you end up putting lower amounts, you likely are going to realize that it is going to take longer, but you may well not really have much of a choice anyhow in terms of speeding up the matter... and so let's say that you are carrying out certain kind of jobs that pay you $2k to $3.5k per month.. so you are feeling o.k. about that and you are able to reasonably stack sats with that level of income.. but then you realize that if you spend 12-18 months attending some kind of a professional program, then you could increase your income up to double of what you are currently making and perhaps even more down the road... but the program will likely cost money and you might have to cut back on your current job.. perhaps even completely quitting your current job.. so those are choices that guys have to make. and there might not even be certainty that they will be able to increase their income by as much as they believe.. or there might even be higher and more lucrative opportunties that might come from certain kinds of training and/or professional experience paths that guys might choose to go down.


Hopefully you have your ratios correct.. since you are planning to hold long term for half and trade with the other half.. which we are not advocating here.. so you have found your own short-cut and attempt to gamble with part of your BTC holdings, and hopefully it does not screw you up in your BTC accumulation journey.. especially since it seems that you are barely in bitcoin for a year and you are cannot resist the idea but to trade half of your stash.

And also your second half of your stash, you are barely even thinking in terms of 4-8 year investment time horizon.. so unless you have some specific reason to shorten your investment timeline, I doubt you are even thinking in long term time lines with either portion of your stash..

And, sure in the end, you are free to do whatever you like when it comes to your BTC accumulation strategy and your supposedly long term plans that do not really sound like long term plans but instead plans to trade one cycle and then the next cycle.


You seem to be conflating the ideas of lump sum and buying on dips.  They are not the same thing.

You seem to actually be buying on dips, but you are calling it lump sum because it is a larger amount than your DCA amount.

A more clear understanding is having a lump sum or coming accross some extra money and then deciding if you are going to invest right now.. at current prices... If you decide to hold some or all of it for buying on dips then that is buying on dips, it no longer falls into a category of lump sum.

Sure, you can use whatever language you like and describe things however, you like, but if you are describing buying on dips as lump sum, then at that point you have to know or figure out what the fuck is lump sum, and it is not the same as buying on dips... so then what are you going to do in order to describe an actual lump sum situation?

The idea of front-loading an investment could apply to any of the BTC accumulation methods of DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips, since front-loading is a kind of practice to attempt to invest more than you otherwise would because you might not have a lot of confidence that the BTC price is going to go down during the period that you are employing the front-loading, so in that sense, if you are front-loading yourBTC investment, you are trying to put some additional preparations into the possibility of UP than you otherwise would do.. and so sometimes someone who is new to BTC, they might feel that they do not have enough BTC, so they might purposefully go out of their way to front-load their investment into BTC in order to attempt to make sure that they are prepared for up, just in case.


hahahahaha.. This is a good point.  Each of us has to make sure that we are taking responsibility and figuring out our own allocation and investment into bitcoin in terms of our own assessments of our financial/psychological situation and our sense of the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis.


You are correct that after 10 years you would have had invested right around $24k.. so that would not be a bad target for anyone to consider, and surely over 10 years there could be variance in the amount that he is able to invest, but if he is at least shooting for $50 per week, then he is on track, since after 1 year he would have had invested $2,600, and so then after 10 years he would have had invested $26k.. .. so then the next question would be how well might his investment perform over that time?  

There are bearish, bullish and maybe various scenarios in between, so as we have done previously, we could create various projections that show each of the various scenarios, even though we are not exactly going to know which one of the scenarios ended up playing out until we get 10 years down the road.. yet we can continue to monitor where we are and the extent to which we might be over or under performing expectations... and part of the value of maintaining somewhat conservative expectations likely relates to better psychological results that would likely come from overperformance rather than underperformance.. and if we fear underperformance, then surely we can choose to invest less or invest in a way that we are not creating too many overly optimistic frameworks... which then also brings us into both our choice to invest in the first place and also what we choose to invest into (presumptively bitcoin in the spirit of the subject matter of this thread).


Wow wmaurik!!   You seem to have even a shorter timeline than FinePoine0.

Both of you are failing/refusing to appreciate the power of a long term investment, which is 4-10 years or longer, and there should be emphasis on the longer rather than barely fitting into the definition because you are wanting to play the waves.

What is it exactly that you need the BTC for?  You are wanting to get BTC profits in order to invest into something else, what is it?

Are you wanting to consume?  Are you looking at getting into real estate? or to invest into other stuff?  What is it?

Why are either of you able to recognize that 4-10 years or longer is not attempting to play the waves and to get in and out of bitcoin or whatever it is that you are planning to do.

Think about it..   why are you into bitcoin?  for fiat gainz?

Think about another thing... why is that the minimum investment time horizon 4 years?  that is a whole cycle and should help to point out that we should not be getting into bitcoin in order to play the cycles.

Now let's say that there are some of us who are actually going to want or need the money that we are putting into bitcoin in less than 4 years, and sure we could do that but we would be trading rather than investing, and there are some chances that our attempt to play the wave is not going to work out. .but sure, we could try to play the wave .. if we are willing to recognize that the price might not move in our preferred direction. .whether we are shooting to buy a house or invest in a business or maybe we just happen to be an older person who may well need the cash in terms of health expenses that might come in older age.. so we are wanting to stay liquid and we cannot commit to at least 4 year investment... then we might not want to get into bitcoin, and if we do get into bitcoin on those terms then we likely would be investing less rather than more since we are more likely trading (or trying to play the wave) rather than actually investing.


Well, at least you wmaurik have potentially been in bitcoin longer than FinePoine0 since you have been registered here for 9 years, so there may have had been some time that you have stacked a sufficient amount of BTC.. but yeah, it could be that you made a lot of mistakes too.. yet FinePoine0 has not even been registered on the forum for a year, so can we even speculated that he has much of a good plan, unless he had been able to front-load his BTC investment a lot, but it seems to me that he is largely in a mindset of figuring out ways to play the wave, and he has a plan to play this wave and a plan to play the next wave, and sure maybe he will just continue to try to play each wave, and it can be quite questionable if that is either a very good strategy or that it is even within the theme of this thread.. it is almost like he is talking about trading rather than investing.. even though sure guys can sell whenever they want, but his somewhat vague reference to what he is doing seems to be a bit of a deviance and/or distraction from a kind of longer term thrust of what kinds of BTC accumulation approaches that we might be trying to consider in this thread.


Of course, there is emergency, reserves and float.. so there can be some advantages in regards to thinking about how the categories differ.. and so if you are using an emergency fund because you are trying to avoid having to tap into your bitcoin, then you might use reserve funds to try to avoid having to tap into your emergency fund... and yeah, of course, there can be questions regarding how much to keep in each, and there would be flexibility, and it would seem imprudent and/or overly risky for guys to not have at least 3 months worth of emergency funds.


Exactly.. Selling and expecting to buy back cheaper (to increase your BTC stash) contains a lot of uncertainties, and seems so easy in theory, but not as easy in practice.... so then one of the main logical solutions is not to sell any of your BTC unless you are expecting to not be able to buy it back.. so then that means that you either have enough or you have excess... it is difficult for a bitcoin newbie to get to a position of having enough or excess bitcoin, but if a bitcoin newbie reaches a status of having enough or too much BTC, then he has more options regarding how to treat his BTC holdings.

so that also means that if the goal of selling your BTC is to be able to get more BTC, then that makes less sense than just continuing to buy BTC.. so that if you conclude that you don't have enough, you just keep buying until you have enough or too much.

I understand what I am saying does not make sense to some people, especially those who really believe that there is some value to try to sell BTC in order to buy back more, and so they are free to employ such strategy, which has questionable odds of success.. especially if it ends up getting the guy out of the buying and accumulating mindset.. which truly is the most assured way to actually build a bitcoin stash to high amounts.


Yep.. the BIG opportunity seems to presume better places to put money than bitcoin and/or to use bitcoin profits for such purposes, rather than perhaps getting the money for "Big Opportunities" from other places.

Of course, when guys are young, they are likely going to come across opportunities and also sometimes need capital to get into certain kinds of deals/arrangements... but that still might not mean it would be a good idea to use bitcoin proceeds for these kinds of matters, yet at the same time, everyone is going to have to make these kinds of choices for themselves in terms  of both balancing their finances and balancing where they have allocated their investments, whether it is time, energies and/or monetary value.


If you have a long term investment plan, I don't know if you need to have a specific goal - since you seem to be suggesting that there is a need to get in and then to get out of the investment... as if there is a better place to put the money.

Sure, if you get up to a certain size BTC stash, then you can start to withdraw from it, live off of it or use it to supplement or replace your income.

If you are building your BTC to try to reach a kind of fuck you status goal, you cannot be completely sure how long it is going to take to get there and you might not even be sure about whether you have gotten there are not, until you start to get close to getting there.  You cannot necessarily establish the specifics in advance, even though you likely have some ballpark ideas, such as getting up to $2million in terms of value of BTC stash.. but then if it takes you 15-20 years to get to that point, you might have to consider if that amount is still correct or consider whether it needs to be adjusted, in either direction.. and also in terms of valuating BTC and other assets and/or currencies that you might have in you total investment portfolio.

+1

 That was easy.

Once the Whatsminers M50's spin up they run great for months on end.

I just don't get why they preheat and take so dang long to fire up though... But they are great!

Theymos and/or the forum seems to operate on UTC.



Theymos is a bot.



I might as well throw out anything that I like on this "special" day  (gotta try to get even, you know?)


I also speculate that reading the forum for 10 days 24/7 will probably earn us less merit than posting one wee-widdo informative wannabe post.  Where  is the justice in that?


Yes.. there is a "new way" to combat spam that was implemented on the forum in January 2018.. called "the merit system," and now theymos went and screwed it all up.  "We" (Royal perhaps?) had a good thing going.   

Why? Because this area of the market is still speculative and those "things" have a lot of momentum, and, surprisingly to me, did not completely fade into obscurity in the last bear by losing 99% (as I expected), but, instead, are running like "dogs", pardon the pun.

You seem to not see this as some kind of weird cultural phenomenon (I do). That's fine, but I would hate to be in a situation when those nonsensical plays have ALL of the momentum and we stay flat.
Alas, it would not be catastrophic, but maybe the complete opposite of any expectation from the "serious" market commenters.

That's it about the "dogs" from me...back to the "regular" program.

Green or red for April?


It's already interesting.. so yeah.. even more interesting.. I hope we are going to be able to handle the level of ongoing interesting.


We have already frequently seen these various kinds of pumps of shitcoins, projects, ICOs, NFTs, stable coins, inscription/ordinals, and now meme coins.

Why do you feel some kind of need to ascribe more meaning to it?  Yeah, a lot of folks are frustrated with various systems and want to say fuck you to the man, and some of them might know about bitcoin and some of them might not.. so they are going to have fun staying poor if they cannot figure out ways to get in and out and maybe to put some of their profits (that is if they actually are able to get any profits) into something solid like bitcoin rather than riding any particular meme coin for too much and for too long.

I am interested in buying one. But the duties are 36% here. There might be a way. Advertise it as a smart hearter

Like this
https://heatbit.com/products/heatbit-mini-pro

I already saw some outcome of this adjustments, a negative merit (-161 Loudmouth ) is way too much theymos, maybe you can just remove them instead.