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1161  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 3 interesting tips about Bitcoin halving on: January 04, 2024, 01:48:40 AM
Interestingly, Satoshi never stated a reason for implementing halving in Bitcoin's protocol.
We can make assumptions on what the reasons were.

Satoshi wanted the supply to be finite, but didn't want to release them all at once, so opted to introduce new ones in blocks. Here now posed the problem that I would assume led to halving;

• If mining reward was left at 50BTC per block, we would have had the entire apply mined within 8 years, after 420,000 blocks. Way too soon.

• This would have caused an issues cause miners will be left to rely on fees was too early and can lead to loss of majority of miners.

• Including halving into the protocol was genius. It eases miners into life without mining (coinbase) reward and also factored in how price changes. Early on when the price was low, 50 units should be enough incentive, but as the price increases, as low as 1 unit or less will be valuable enough to motivate miners.

He should have made it 1 block every 20 minutes not 1 block every 10.

We are now feeling the first effects of what I call the "real flippening".

Here is what the real flippening is.

Rewards ------------ fees

50.0000                under 0.2 btc   2009-2012   
25.0000                under 0.4 btc   2012-2016
12.5000                under 1.0 btc   2016-2020
  6.2500                under 2.0 btc   2020-2024
  3.1250                under 3.0 btc   2024-2028      first taste of flippening
  1.5625                under 3.0 btc   2028-2032         the flippening


So 2024 to 2032 will be new and flipped.
miners are prepping by figuring ways to push the fees to new highs.
Should be interesting.
1162  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: January 03, 2024, 10:16:04 PM
Have you seen the discussions here about the payments? We're on bitcointalk and we're talking about people getting paid in doge or ltc, maybe soon even usdt, on bitcointalk!  I stopped myself before saying that maybe we should tart using Paypal!  Wink
Small payments on chain were done one way or the other anyhow, ordinals or no ordinals, image we indeed would have 100  million bitcoin users, how would that work?

Analyzing it this way, the idea remains that Bitcoin was doomed from birth to be a coin for commercial use. But that's what it was made for.
I continue to think that Bitcoin can be an excellent tool for commercial exchanges, large or small. I recognize that some existing solutions do not allow this to be as functional as I would like.
Now, I also believe that the global bitcoin community will find a solution to better manage this issue.



~~

I didn't understand, this free one.  Huh



It serves two purposes it draws attention to my signature. I also

 used it to make a sign to give a snow blower away.

I took a screen shot of it blown up and printed it on my printer. then used tape on it and a larger piece of cardboard. lets see how long it takes for someone to take it away .

I would think under 2 days.

Snow blower is gone.
1163  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: How long will a Bitcoin transaction stuck in the mempool for two months be delet on: January 03, 2024, 05:46:27 PM
Hi everyone,

My Bitcoin transaction has been stuck in the blockchain for two months and has not been confirmed. This is because I paid a very low transaction fee.

I have read that the mempool will periodically clear unconfirmed transactions. I would like to know when this transaction will be deleted and returned to my original wallet. I no longer want to send this transaction.

Thank you!

How about this never.  As any node can repeat broadcast it. SO YOUR FUNDS MAY NEVER CLEAR AND REMAIN FROZEN.
1164  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 03, 2024, 05:43:33 PM
Just a soft reminder to philipma1957. ChartBuddy is catching up quite fast. In few days he might cross philipma1957


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

Yeah my birthday is this month. I should effort for buddy to pass me by on my 67th birthday.

Now that I don't do the mixer campaigns no sense to doing 140 posts a week.


I just let my signature be free to projects I like.

Talkimg.com will get it for a while.
1165  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 03, 2024, 05:36:33 AM
FYI (for people in US):

Quote
Therefore, as of today, if you receive more than $10,000 in cryptocurrency in the course of your trade or business, you have to file a report within 15 days under penalty of law.

https://cryptoslate.com/crypto-tax-rules-now-require-reporting-of-transactions-over-10k/

https://www.coincenter.org/new-crypto-tax-reporting-obligations-took-effect-on-new-years-day/

I think that they are talking about a single tx exceeding 10k (received as your trade or business, NOT the one sent from your own account on Coinbase or Gemini), but check it out yourself.

Does not mention if you send it ie I buy a few pieces of gear from bitmain for 11000.

This will affect my mining distribution pattern.

I had a good month in Dec 2023, I exceeded the 10,000 but it was okay for last year.

Thanks for info.
1166  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: ask a reputable large mini-pool to include a transaction in block on: January 03, 2024, 04:45:24 AM
There is the following valid reason:

someone who successfully finds the private key of one of the low-range puzzles from the well-known Bitcoin puzzle (currently the 66bit puzzle is being hunted) encounters the following problem: as soon as the lucky winner would put a transaction in the mempool to pay out the prize money to his bitcoin address, he runs the very great risk that someone else will cheat him and grab his prize money.

As soon as the public key is known, the private key can be calculated within a few seconds, we are talking about a 66bit range here and this is possible very quickly with the given hardware and resources. Once Mallory knows the private key, (s)he can create a new transaction with higher fees and change the recipient address to his own. Since RBF is only a policy but not a consensus and each full node is free to decide for itself how to deal with RBF, there is no protection mechanism against this attack. The only possibility is to keep the pubkey hidden from the public as long as the block has been mined and made public. A single transaction would suffice. This is not a fictitious scenario, but a real one.

For this reason, my initial question is whether a large mini-pool could be commissioned with the "direct" and thus hidden insertion of the transaction into the block. This would mean that the transaction would never appear in the mempool and nobody would see the pubkey. Only after the block has been mined and made public would the whole world know the pubkey. Of course, a villain could also act trickily in the large mininpool. But there would be mitigation measures for this and the risk for this type of attack could be kept very low.

I would trust ck solo pool but it could take a long time for him hit one.
1167  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 03, 2024, 04:35:20 AM
well the Oct 2020 to April 2022 time frame was good but a lot of stuff happened :

pandemic
supply chain
China tore the heart 💜 out of the hashrate.
Sbf

I guess a lot of figuring for the future is more or less a guess.

but dec 2017 to jan 2024 is just a bit more than inflation. say 2.3x



of course the early 2020 drop to 3900 to jan 2024 is smoking hot 11/12x move.

so the wrong six years and a month 2.3x
the right three years and 10 months 11.6x

heres hoping to see 11.6x in three years and ten months.

which gets us to 500k by nov 2028 works for me.
1168  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: challenges of blockchain growth and potential solutions on: January 03, 2024, 04:24:55 AM
Hi all, wish you a Happy and Healthy New Year 2024!

Lately I've been contemplating the rapid growth of the Bitcoin blockchain and its potential impact on full-node operators. With the current blockchain size surpassing 500GB (538.09 GB on Jan/01/2024) there's a concern that some of us may be approaching capacity limits to continue hosting such large amounts of data.

Therefore, I'd like to take this opportunity to initiate an open discussion on this matter and find out what solutions or considerations might already be in place. Here are some thoughts that have crossed my mind:

    - Block Size Limit: What is the community's stance on potentially adjusting the block size limit to manage growth? Are there ongoing discussions on this topic?

    - Second-Layer Solutions: How effective are second-layer solutions like the Lightning Network in relieving the main blockchain? Are there experiences or concerns that we can share?

    - Pruning: For those already implementing pruning, how has this impacted your node's resource usage? Any insights or recommendations for others considering this approach?

    - Optimizations: Are there any ongoing efforts or developments within the Bitcoin protocol to optimize resource usage and improve scalability?

Here are some current stats as of today:

Last Value from Jan 1 2024, 22:03 EST:
538.09 GB

Value from 1 Year Ago:
446.05 GB

Change from 1 Year Ago:
20.63%

Average Growth Rate:
118.8%

I believe that by pooling our collective knowledge and experiences, we can better understand the current landscape and potentially contribute to the ongoing evolution of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Please share your thoughts, insights, or any information you may have on this topic. Looking forward to a fruitful discussion!

Cheers,
citb0in

Spend money and get a 2tb ssd to run a full node.
2tb ssd units are cheap enough.

My suggestion is very simple anyone running a full untrimed node on a 2tb ssd gets a small monthly payment. If miners can get a block worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. 2tb ssd full nodes can get 5 dollars a month with 95% up time.


1169  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 03, 2024, 12:32:48 AM
Jim Cramer says: BTC is a reality. It’s a technological marvel, and people need to start recognizing that it’s here to stay.



>>> https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1742201268687245635?t=anPyrgao4Qsj1dO8nMLHqQ&s=19



Tomorrow is the 15th anniversary of the Genesis Block - the first block of Bitcoin that was mined on January 3rd, 2009.


I would give you -50 merit for posting this if I could. Cramer is the biggest cooler in the world . Damn you !

Haha, that was my knee jerk thought as well until I realized they must have accumulated what they want and they are allowing a pump to the plebs now.

maybe i mindrust it tonight
1170  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Human trafficking on: January 02, 2024, 11:28:03 PM
Forced unpaid labor is a legal form of punishment under the US constitution.  it allows each state to do as they will with forced labor.  I believe  at least 7 states do this


Quote
https://news.uchicago.edu/story/us-prison-labor-programs-violate-fundamental-human-rights-new-report-finds

Key findings include:

Nearly two-thirds (65% percent) of incarcerated people report working behind bars—amounting to roughly 800,000 workers incarcerated in prisons.
More than three quarters of incarcerated people surveyed (76%) report facing punishment—such as solitary confinement, denial of sentence reductions, or loss of family visitation—if they decline to work.
Prison laborers are at the mercy of their employers. They have no control over their work assignments, are excluded from minimum wage and overtime protections, are unable to unionize, do not receive adequate training and equipment, and are denied workplace safety guarantees despite often dangerous working conditions.
As a result, 64% of incarcerated workers surveyed report worrying about their safety while working; 70% percent say they received no formal job training; and 70% percent report not being able to afford basic necessities like soap and phone calls with prison labor wages.
Incarcerated workers produce at least $2 billion in goods and $9 billion worth of prison maintenance services annually, but this number is not closely tracked and is likely much higher.
Yet, most states pay incarcerated workers pennies per hour for their work. Seven states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas) pay nothing for the vast majority of prison work.Other states pay on average between 15 and 52 cents per hour for non-industry jobs. Prison laborers often see up to 80% of their paycheck withheld for taxes, “room and board” expenses, and court costs.
More than 80% percent of prison laborers do general prison maintenance, which subsidizes the cost of our bloated prison system. Other tasks represent less than 10% percent of work assignments, including: public works projects (like road repair, natural disaster assistance, forestry work, and maintenance of parks, schools, and government offices); state prison industries, agricultural work, and coveted private company work assignments.

All of the above is legal under the US constitution.  So if you think they are criminals they deserve it at least 10% of the people in US prisons were wrongly convicted.  So this means 80-100 thousand people are being really mistreated.

Never mind another 50,000 that while guilty were over charged in the first place which resulted in no trial and plea deals so as to avoid a 10 year sentence for a minor non violent drug possession crime.
1171  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2024, 11:18:24 PM
Jim Cramer says: BTC is a reality. It’s a technological marvel, and people need to start recognizing that it’s here to stay.



>>> https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1742201268687245635?t=anPyrgao4Qsj1dO8nMLHqQ&s=19



Tomorrow is the 15th anniversary of the Genesis Block - the first block of Bitcoin that was mined on January 3rd, 2009.


I would give you -50 merit for posting this if I could. Cramer is the biggest cooler in the world . Damn you !
1172  Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned on: January 02, 2024, 06:58:45 PM
Again: arguing for the sake of arguing (semantics). Had a bad day or what?

The protocol (never said anything about clients) is officially called BitTorrent, just like Bitcoin is called Bitcoin. I've been using torrents for 20 years, I don't need lecturing.

You also dismissed this post for some strange reason:

I reckon we can have a decent decentralized forum protocol if FTTH (100 Mbps upload) becomes the baseline.

With ADSL (1 Mbps upload) it's not really possible... ADSL is fine for BTC, that's why Satoshi released it in 2009 (when ADSL was already becoming the norm).
I never said a decentralized forum protocol is feasible right now, don't put words in my mouth.

I said we need higher upload to create more elaborate decentralized apps (whether it's a forum or Artificial Intelligence to rival the centralized ChatGPT).

Back in 2003 many people didn't even have ADSL, they were stuck in dial-up (even in the US). Therefore it was not a good time to release Bitcoin (even if it was ready).

Nobody "demands" anything, not even Theymos (but he clearly wants a decentralized forum WHEN it becomes feasible!).

Have some patience and don't be such a pessimist. Smiley

I'm not giving any semantics, I'm just saying that what you want is not viable at the moment. I didn't discard any message, I just didn't mention something that I didn't consider relevant.




The best we could do now is mirror it in a more friendly country and we lose the security of having one guy you really need to trust (theymos) the mirror back up in a second country would mean at least one other person needs full access to the entire forum since theymos cannot be in two places at the same time.

Also you are still asking theymos to put him or herself at risk from the USA based system since theymos is USA based.  Nevermind the second country could turn on you and go after that mirror setup.

A forum like Bitcointalk is quite demanding in terms of resources. Unfortunately, the best servers for this purpose are in the USA or Europe. Therefore, it is difficult to try to find a mirror outside of these locations that is minimally viable to operate. And between Europe and the USA, perhaps the USA is still the one with the best guarantees.

   Japan and South Korea have some good IT infrastructure. But as I said you then need a safe guy ie a Theymos Clone so to speak that could be trusted to run the mirror as it would be an equal to the original. I think the risk that theymos II turns rouge could be just as bad as the risk that the USA government shuts down Bitcointalk I.

 
1173  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Outrageous Bitcoin Fees on: January 02, 2024, 04:43:39 PM
We will likely have high fees until LN gets far more adaptation.

Options now are join an exchange that allows LN use.

Kraken does. do Kyc give 500 cash buy BTC. All low cost so far.

You can then use their LN wallet.

Just remember you can have all that money frozen or stolen classic not your keys not your coins.

It you want a second LN setup.

join nicehash do KYC

Transfer 250 usd worth of btc via LN to nicehash.

you then can use two different LN wallets without complicated work.

I have about $350 worth of Btc on kraken and I mine about $100 a day to my nicehash wallet.

so I can easily pay and receive btc with two different companies.

I am well aware I can lose my coin 🪙

I have a small amount on those companies . Plus cold wallets.
1174  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Centralization in mining. on: January 02, 2024, 04:26:50 PM
it does match.  slow first 5 days fast last 9 days. end of day 5 -1%. end of 14 days +3 or 4%

Here are the blocks Foundry mined the last two epoch by date:

10  37    26 48
11  48    27 36
12  34    28 33
13  43    29 37    
14  35    30 31
15  35    01 49
16  44    02 43
17  43    03 45
18  43    04 53
19  50    05 30  
20  53    06 40
21  53    07 29
             08 30
             09 37

Last epoch Foundry had it's three lowest block digging days in the last 5 days, just because something happened once it doesn't make it a rule Phil.

Second, if Foundry was now back at it's full power, then it means it has run underclock forever!

Current reported hashrate is 148 Exahas, Foundry never had this hashrate ever till now, their November one day high is 140exa, so where would this extra hashrate come from? New gear and luck, the same new gear that is making them have the biggest share of the pie in months:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools
They are at 37.12% over the last theree days and compared to 28.24% over 1 month!

Third, don't you think it's really a bad strategy to mine more block on Friday and Saturday right before a holiday, when the reward will probably hit record lows?

Just saying that they can do it and we can’t track it a lot. Other than daily block counts.

Besides with software that can downclock or upclock a thousand units in 1 minute. The downclock is basically doable when ever.  It also becomes cheaper when the ½ ing comes. As the penalty for losing a block reward drops from 6.25 to 3.125  is an extra incentive to manipulate fees upwards.

I think they are fine tuning it for the ½ ing. Learning how fast they can clog the mempool via under clock.

then overclock to grab the high fee blocks.
1175  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Is There A Guide to Help Me Start Solo Mining? on: January 02, 2024, 03:55:26 PM
I read somewhere that a solo miner mined a block. As big a gamble as that is, I'm considering solo mining with just one machine. I'm not bothered if I never mine a block but I just want to give it a shot. Is there a guide somewhere on the best miner to buy and how to set it up. Has someone here tried solo mining. I just need some sort of guidance. Thanks.

just mine at ckpool

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237323.0

or kano solo

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789369.0

what miner to use is the hard question.

do you have 120 or 240 volt power?

you have very limited choice if you have 120 volt power.

if you have 240 volt.

look for a two board s19 set it to low power and it will do about 50 th and fairly efficient and quiet.
1176  Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned on: January 02, 2024, 03:34:27 PM
The best we could do now is mirror it in a more friendly country and we lose the security of having one guy you really need to trust (theymos) the mirror back up in a second country would mean at least one other person needs full access to the entire forum since theymos cannot be in two places at the same time.

Also you are still asking theymos to put him or herself at risk from the USA based system since theymos is USA based.  Nevermind the second country could turn on you and go after that mirror setup.
Your post gave me an idea like what we seen Binance and Stake have their own dedicated sites for US jurisdiction. If bitcointalk.org is subject to US laws, maybe we need a second domain like bitcointalkall.org that's subject to friendly country laws. Maybe Cyrus might be able to help Tongue , not sure if Romania is friendly with privacy, to be more specify a tumbler.

I agree that looks more possible than wanting a decentralized forum, not even to mention epochtalk.

This a clever improvement or spin on my idea.  Maybe it is the way to go.
1177  Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned on: January 02, 2024, 02:45:36 PM
Arguing for the sake of arguing much?  Roll Eyes

You didn't answer my questions, you just keep making new questions demanding answers...

What answer do you want me to answer?
How am I going to talk about a technology that doesn't exist today, or rather that isn't viable for a forum of this size, mainly because I don't have the resources to invent something like that?

What I can say is that creating a decentralized forum today is impossible and completely unfeasible.

The example I gave was torrent, not BitTorrent. BitTorrent is a torrent client, which is clearly not decentralized.
Do you know how torrent works? So imagine the same for the website. How can an ordinary person access a website, without having to install specific software, download the entire database that can be larger than a 4K Blu-ray movie, and then browse?

But wait, it only takes 1 byte to depend on one person, so it won't be decentralized.

Is Bitcoin decentralized? Yes, yours because anyone can set up a node and run it. But, Bitcoin is linear and not dynamic. It is mathematical work, always the same, that always produces the same type of data. A forum is highly dynamic, where all users produce different content, where features change over time, and many other things happen in a matter of seconds.

It cannot be compared when the type of data transmitted is always the same, with other services that are very varied in terms of data. The greater the data variation, the more complex and longer the processing process.

I'm not saying that in the future there won't be something really functional that makes this type of site decentralized. But at the moment it doesn't exist. Therefore, I cannot demand the forum to become decentralized.



The best we could do now is mirror it in a more friendly country and we lose the security of having one guy you really need to trust (theymos) the mirror back up in a second country would mean at least one other person needs full access to the entire forum since theymos cannot be in two places at the same time.

Also you are still asking theymos to put him or herself at risk from the USA based system since theymos is USA based.  Nevermind the second country could turn on you and go after that mirror setup.
1178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2024, 03:50:02 AM
Get the chopper ready!... And i mean, the original chopper!

okay lets do the 45 over night and wake up to 46k on the 2nd.

Bring it on!!!

we passed 45k again and I think we hit a two year high at 45.5k.

edit

we need 47.9k to get a two year high.
1179  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2024, 02:04:06 AM
failed at this pop over 45k maybe the next one breaks the dam.

but my posts are at 44.2k and price is 44.8k not bad.

Buddy is really close to passing me by I have a month at most.
1180  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2024, 01:14:36 AM
$45k+

Racing to $46k...

Only thing missing now is a "going to zero" post by proudhon.  Cheesy

I want to wake up to 46.6k tues morning.

I did predict 42.3k on dec 1   we hit it on dec 4/5

I did predict 48.1k on Jan 1 maybe it comes just a tiny bit later Jan 2-5 works


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