We're discussing and speculating each giving some arguments and not getting convinced by the other's.
Not that the outcome would matter, but what are you going to do on a rainy Friday?
As you said in the other reply, chit chatting..


and none of us as far as I understand claim that it's a fully 8% luck and more like half of it or one third or something around which would again increase the possibilities but, again not that it matters to the zeros.

I would be more interested in the actual technical challenges of having at least 50exhash in the datacenter and 50 out the next day, even assuming some larger farms managed to do this the same time.  I still believe that unless you're willing to spend extra for extra hands and shifts, and a lot here this won't be possible unless all the farms came to some agreement and all of Foundry and Bitmain and Antpool did it the same time. Why would they? That is another speculation!

Not sure what are you guys trying to reach to, but there is a 0.0048% chance you get 25% or more variance in 288 blocks vs a 0.0245% chance of getting 8% or more variance in 2016 blocks, so the latter is more likely to happen based on my simple code which uses pyton poisson.cdf function.

And they have the ability to also increase the luck to ridiculous levels, too, because that's how luck works.

Of course the 350k could be done you just have to employ more people, you just have to have a lot of MW available for god knows what reason, you have to have extra racks at hand, again why would, and spend a ton of $ to do that as fast as possible for, what really? A extra week of mining?

The reason why I don't believe in it being possible is because I see all those press release from Mara, Riot, Hut8 and if you look at the rate they put in new gear despite having it in order you will see they barely manage to bring each of them 1-2 exahash online constantly, to think that they would get their gear at the same time and decided all of them to play like this and keep the s19 running for exactly the same time, this to me sounds like a possibility just as high of getting 1 extra block for the 6 you mine usually without doing anything extra.

As mikey said above, a combination of luck, extra gear delivered, some farm testing a setup, a farm maybe going down for maintenance as we speak yes, but just one single factor, I find it hard to believe!

Pace has gone up a bit:



Yup, weeks is the thing, it just doesn't happen in two weeks, on/off.
Besides, the whole renovation thing, let's assume you have 10 000 gears , you plan on giving away 3000 and replacing them with 3000 new ones, why would that company had the space, racks, cables, transformers, cooling already in place  for 3000 extra gear? When you renovate something you don't have already things set up in place and working for extra 20 or 25% of capacity.

I don't think they are going to dispose of these units I think they are going to sell them if they are no longer making any profit. It's too expensive to sustain a mining farm if you don't have a source to pay bills and maintenance except for those who have free power source.

I saw lots of sold units on Offordscott Telegram group, so I think some of these companies sold their units to Offordscott or used Offordscott as a broker or middleman to resell these units.

After the halving, many ASIC models will either become unprofitable or give very little profit. And in order for large companies to use all the power for maximum profit, they will turn off thousands of old ASIC models.
And what will happen to these ASICs next?
Will they be sold to other countries or disposed of?

If you want to buy a used ASIC now, don't do it. After halving there will be a big discount on such ASICs on the market.

I love reading about bitcoin and the forum. But sometimes these articles contain information that are lengthy and somehow complicated and technical. I have always wanted a summarised and more simplified version but could not get. But one day, I read the footer of an Op, after the signature space. I discovered there's a write up there and that writeup is seen in same position in all Original Posters (OP). I understood that they are Bitcointalk factiods. I have enjoyed reading them for days now. Immediately I login, I'll start reading them before I'll make some posts. It's enlightening, entertaining and some are humorous. I decided to make a collection of it for learning purposes. I have searched and didn't see anything like that. I don't like making repetitive threads, if there's a similar thread I'll lock this.
This will be helpful to newbies and at same time it is forum related. I don't know if it best fits here or in the beginners and help. Moderators feel free to move the post if it is not appropriate here.
 
FACTOID ONE:
Make sure you back up your wallet regularly! Unlike a bank account, nobody can help you if you lose access to your BTC.
My Question or Input:
Does this also imply to offline backup. Whereby I am needed to always go check by backup seed phrase?

Check one or two times a year depending on how you have your offline wallet.



FACTOID TWO:
How can the Bitcoin system be changed?
My Question or Input:
You need to read, this as music was used to differentiate between Hard fork and soft fork. It is purely satisfying to read if you understand music or song.

yes

FACTOID THREE:
 Remember that Bitcoin is still beta software. Don't put all of your money into BTC!
My Question or Input:
I know that BTC is still in the beta software. I also know that it is not good to put all your money in BTC. But, will there ever be an upgrade from the beta version of BTC and when will this happen?

If we leave beta it will be decades.

FACTOID FOUR:
"I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume." -- Satoshi
My Question or Input:
It is not upto 20 years yet but what Satoshi said is already happening. What exactly did Satoshi say? He made a statement of two faces. If there is large transaction volume, Satoshi is right, if no volume, he is also right  

it has a very large volume now. and in 2029 it likely will still be big

down the road maybe a shift happens to the better algo scrypt which will reduce btc volume a lot.

FACTOID FIVE:
 With e-currency based on cryptographic proof, without the need to trust a third party middleman, money can be secure and transactions effortless." -- Satoshi
My Question or Input:
Thanks Satoshi, many thought it was a joke but you and the early developers who believed your idea achieved this.

yeah moving big money across the world 🌍 is easy


FACTOID SIX :
Unlike traditional banking where clients have only a few account numbers, with Bitcoin people can create an unlimited number of accounts (addresses). This can be used to easily track payments, and it improves anonymity.
My Question or Input:
Which is why re-using of an address is not encouraged. If you keep using one address for all your transactions, you are not enjoying the full value of bitcoin in terms of anonymity.

disagree it is not anonymous it is all listed.  there is pretty good software to track and find out address owners if they are used some exceptions if you solo mine and use a virgin address. hit a block most will not know who owns it.


FACTOID SEVEN:
Whoever mines the block which ends up containing your transaction will get its fee.
My Question or Input:
So, miners are a way richer during this mempool congestion. No wonder it persisted.


it will come back again and again and again. as the reward to fee ratio changes every ½ ing.

FACTOID EIGHT :
Bitcoin addresses contain a checksum, so it is very unlikely that mistyping an address will cause you to lose money
My Question or Input:
I wasn't told this when I was a newbie. I had to type the address and even count the alpha-num manually to be very sure my BTC is not going to a wrong destination

FACTOID NINE:
The Bitcoin network protocol was designed to be extremely flexible. It can be used to create timed transactions, escrow transactions, multi-signature transactions, etc. The current features of the client only hint at what will be possible in the future.
My Question or Input:
If the network is as flexible as said above, why developers have misunderstanding leading to hard fork. Soft forking should have always been the solution for
improvements

FACTOID TEN:
 If you want to be a moderator, report many posts with accuracy. You will be noticed.
My Question or Input:
Theymos, is this the only criterion for being a moderator? I'll start my reporting job tomorrow  

FACTOID ELEVEN:
Governments are good at cutting off the heads of a centrally controlled networks like Napster, but pure P2P networks like Gnutella and Tor seem to be holding their own." - Satoshi
My Question or Input:
True statement, but it should also be a concern that the centralized p2p is becoming more popular than the original p2p proposed by Satoshi.

FACTOID TWELVE :
Transactions must be included in a block to be properly completed. When you send a transaction, it is broadcast to miners. Miners can then optionally include it in their next blocks. Miners will be more inclined to include your transaction if it has a higher transaction fee.
My Question or Input:
Too late to be a miner? Those guys are enjoying.

FACTOID THIRTEEN :
Activity + Trust + Earned merit == The Most Recognized Users on Bitcointalk
My Question or Input:
Top 10 most recognised Users;

• theymos
• philipma1957
• OgNasty  
• DaveF
• LoyceV  
• yahoo62278
• cygan  
• gmaxwell  
• The Sceptical Chemist
• LFC_Bitcoin

Welldone heros, it takes determination and passion for bitcoin to be in this list.

FACTOID FOURTEEN :
"Your bitcoin is secured in a way that is physically impossible for others to access, no matter for what reason, no matter how good the excuse, no matter a majority of miners, no matter what." -- Greg Maxwell
My Question or Input:
What does Gmaxwell mean by "physically impossible for others to access..." But bitcoin is not a physical currency or asset?

FACTOID FIFTEEN :
The trust scores you see are subjective; they will change depending on who you have in your trust list.
My Question or Input:
Noted!

FACTOID SIXTEEN:
The network tries to produce one block per 10 minutes. It does this by automatically adjusting how difficult it is to produce blocks.
My Question or Input:
I guess this means if the time is shorter to elapse, difficulty will be less and vice versa.

FACTOID SEVENTEEN :
No Gods or Kings. Only Bitcoin
My Question or Input:
The shortest and most inspiring factoid without an author.

FACTOID EIGHTEEN :
Every time a block is mined, a certain amount of BTC (called the subsidy) is created out of thin air and given to the miner. The subsidy halves every four years and will reach 0 in about 130 years.
My Question or Input:
If we say "created out of thin air..." It looks as if the subsidy is not among the 21 million bitcoin in existence.

FACTOID NINTEEN:
"There should not be any signed int. If you've found a signed int somewhere, please tell me (within the next 25 years please) and I'll change it to unsigned int." -- Satoshi
My Question or Input:
hay! I have seen a signed integer, where is Satoshi, I want to tell him.

FACTOID TWENTY :
20. In order to achieve higher forum ranks, you need both activity points and merit points.
My Question or Input:
Now that I have a higher activity points to go to senior member but my merit points are lower, what should I do?

Thanks for reading till the end. I have started enjoying this forum more than before.

From all indications, the bull market has started because the price of bitcoin has started to make the good move we are expecting in respect to Bitcoin halving coming up soon, but I think there will be another bear market in form of correction before the main bull run.

But my surprise is that, why is only Bitcoin pumping so high and leaving altcoin behind?

I think if bull run comes, both Bitcoin and altcoins are supposed to move together?

Or am I missing something?

This is really a food for thought. Having a full thought on this, I will say 5.00 CGPA why? Cause one can get to improve more on their skills and acquire more skill set. That is one can work in any industry and acquire more pay.
But with 5 BTC one will just have just a fixed number, what i mean is, any time btc goes up or down that's the whole amount you  have but with a 5.00 in a good field you can tend to grow what you earn.
 However, I still think this is not something that is debate-able for those in my country, especially in this trying times where we are seeing a hike in inflation and economy crisis. I’m sure majority will go for the 5 btc without hesitation the economy has guard up our survival instincts to a whole different level. The system has made us to believe that you have to go through the educational process to get a good life and be responsible. Good thing we have a lot of prominent people who do not have a degree to determine their wealth, we now have a lot of young people who are ready to give  up going to university or college, if they have a paying idea or skill or what ever that makes them income.
 Although, this does not dispute the fact that education is ìmportant, we should give credit to the smart and intelligent ones because, their time and effort of being the best should be rewarded accordingly. Well, which would you rather go for if you had the chance,  would you rather chase a degree, get good grades to work in an industry or quit school and accept 5 BCT, what's your opinion?

I don't believe the on/off scenario.
So you have 150k S21 coming in and you plug them in alongside 300k S19 and then you unplug the S19 and throw them out, 450 k pieces of gear in two weeks, who will even do this kind of work, we're talking about 4500 tons of equipment, 100 fully loaded till their axels scream trucks.

Would rather blame some really unrealistic days in terms of block generation:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3m
we had a day with extra 42 blocks just one like that and you screw the difficulty completely.

Probably 4% was more accurate, and if the pace goes up just a bit but still negative it would mean a 4% followed by a 2%, still realistic.
300k gear moving in and out in 10 days, I can't even picture the logistic behind it.

I read about this method of powering the Earth in science fiction, but now it works

Scientists continue to search for clean and sustainable energy sources. One of the promising areas in this activity is the development of technologies that will make it possible to capture solar energy directly in space and then transmit it to Earth. Scientists from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) have achieved some success in this, who managed to collect energy using an orbital satellite and transmit it to Earth.

The mission began on January 3, 2023, when the research vehicle was delivered into low Earth orbit using a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle. Exactly two months later, scientists began experimenting with MAPLE and as a result, the mission was considered a success. In the future, the researchers plan to create a constellation of satellites such as SPPD-1, which will be able to transmit energy to Earth to supply 10 thousand households. However, this is still a long way off, since at the moment MAPLE captures from 175 to 251 mW of energy in space at a time, and only 1 mW of energy has reached the ground station.
https://technewsspace.com/for-the-first-time-in-history-a-satellite-transmitted-solar-energy-from-space-to-earth/

The efficiency is very small, but if this technology develops, we will get a lot of endless and environmentally friendly electricity

You can't see this information in Trezor Suite app, but you can turn on coin control, select UTXO you want, and set custom fees double checked on mempool.space.
Try using this UTCO calculator that was made by Jameson Lopp to get more accurate size values:
https://jlopp.github.io/unspendable-utxo-calculator/

This is little bit utopian thinking.
It's more realistic to say that fees are more likely to go up in near future, especially with halving coming soon.
My prediction is that we wont see fees below 10 sat/vB any time soon, but I could be wrong.

The current pace is 94.7%, it is extremely unlikely that we had the  a 6.3% drop in hashrate given the price, so this makes me believe (even more) that the previous epoch was very lucky and that the 8.2% increase was more so 2-3% and the rest was luck.

That math makes no sense.

I'm not the most eloquent either, but maybe I can explain what I understood from your words.

You say that it could be a conflict of interest, because the manager could use his ability to give merits to a certain user to increase his ranking and thus be able to participate in the campaign or have a higher level of payment. Doing so can provide one user with advantages over another.

For example: imagine that I was still a Hero, and a manager wanted me to participate in a campaign that only accepts Legendary. I need 50 merits to level up. The manager being a source of merit, would give me these merits to raise my level, and so I could participate in the campaign.

Was this your idea @philipma1957?

You should check out the people making miners with single Antminer hashboards. They're called "Loki Rigs" and are right about at the specs you mention.