[CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx

[kgo]

There's been some speculation in the statistical analysis thread that maybe a whale was playing, and double-spending a bunch of losses to beat the house.  Any comment?

[1714212239]

1714212239

[1714212239]

1714212239

[1714212239]

1714212239

[1714212239]

1714212239

[1714212239]

1714212239

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

S.DICE dividends will probably be higher this month thanks to my 100+ BTC loss 

[sunnankar]

S.DICE dividends will probably be higher this month thanks to my 100+ BTC loss 

Your loss would be immaterial to the earnings. From the blockchain analysis it looks like there have been about 1.2m BTC bet and about 19k net income due to bad luck of about 1.75% which is below the 1.9% house edge. The dividend will likely be around .00019 per share with the retained earnings increasing to about 46k BTC.

Based on my earlier analysis  on 4 Jan where I predicted the price moving from .0048 to .0075 quickly and it happened within a month, it seems that SD shares are currently significantly undervalued.

Of course, after dividends are paid there will likely be a bunch reinvested into more shares.

[Bowjob]

S.DICE dividends will probably be higher this month thanks to my 100+ BTC loss 

Your loss would be immaterial to the earnings. From the blockchain analysis it looks like there have been about 1.2m BTC bet and about 19k net income due to bad luck of about 1.75% which is below the 1.9% house edge. The dividend will likely be around .00019 per share with the retained earnings increasing to about 46k BTC.

Based on my earlier analysis  on 4 Jan where I predicted the price moving from .0048 to .0075 quickly and it happened within a month, it seems that SD shares are currently significantly undervalued.

Of course, after dividends are paid there will likely be a bunch reinvested into more shares.

What is the price you reckon them to be?

[nebulus]

S.DICE dividends will probably be higher this month thanks to my 100+ BTC loss 

Thanks...

[evoorhees]

SatoshiDice kills it on the home page of CalvinAyre.com... one of the most widely watched gambling industry sites.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140583.0

[ThickAsThieves]

Wow, not bad!:

In fact, playing is so easy that you can do it without even visiting the website. For example, if you have Bitcoins, try sending them to the address:

 1dice97ECuByXAvqXpaYzSaQuPVvrtmz6

[dooglus]

Wow, not bad!:

In fact, playing is so easy that you can do it without even visiting the website. For example, if you have Bitcoins, try sending them to the address:

 1dice97ECuByXAvqXpaYzSaQuPVvrtmz6

Unfortunately the address in the article isn't clickable, although the following paragraph says that it is:

You can even click on that address above and see people placing bets in real time.

[MPOE-PR]

Pretty cool stuff!

[evoorhees]

January Statement

The dividend for S.DICE has now been paid for January. Once again, best month yet.

Summary:
Earnings:   20067.37319487
Hosting/Tech Expenses:   60
Loss Carryover from Nov: 0
   
Net Profit   20007.37319487
10% MPEX Dividend   2000.73731948

Volume over past month:  1,198,694.74
Actual Profit over past month:  20,067.37
Expected Profit over past month:   22,775.20

Updated P&L: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dG5SQklHZG4wRm1GMW9DRWpMMW5UQkE#gid=7

S.DICE shareholders earned 2.75% dividend yield just in the month of January (based on 0.0073 current share price). Annualized, this is a 32.99% dividend at current share prices.

The gambling industry will not be ignoring Bitcoin much longer, I assure you

[MPOE-PR]

S.DICE shareholders earned 2.75% dividend yield just in the month of January (based on 0.0073 current share price). Annualized, this is a 32.99% dividend at current share prices.

Tell me what it'd be at IPO prices. 

[usagi]

What is the price you reckon them to be?

Based on my own analysis S.DICE is now worth almost 0.5/share.

[k]

What is the price you reckon them to be?

Based on my own analysis S.DICE is now worth almost 0.5/share.

So at 100 million shares total (10 million available on MPEX), that makes a market cap of 50 million bitcoin 

[dust]

What is the price you reckon them to be?

Based on my own analysis S.DICE is now worth almost 0.5/share.

Did you forget a zero or two?

[usagi]

What is the price you reckon them to be?

Based on my own analysis S.DICE is now worth almost 0.5/share.

Did you forget a zero or two?

Did you do a fundamental analysis of S.DICE?

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

What is the price you reckon them to be?

Based on my own analysis S.DICE is now worth almost 0.05/share.

FYA

[k]

What is the price you reckon them to be?

Based on my own analysis S.DICE is now worth almost 0.05/share.

FYA

even 0.05/share is way too much.

[usagi]

What is the price you reckon them to be?

Based on my own analysis S.DICE is now worth almost 0.05/share.

FYA

even 0.05/share is way too much.

This is why they will go to 0.5. ;-)

Always drink upstream from the herd. You do not know what you are witnessing.

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

even 0.05/share is way too much.

Could be the price payed by a major gambling actor before the breakfast

[k]

0.5/share values S.DICE at 50 million bitcoin - by my simplistic fundamental analysis that is impossible.

0.05/share values it at 5 million bitcoin - still way too high in my opinion.

I can see it reaching maybe 0.01/share but I think that is too risky too. I think the one of the risks is that if the last two months profits are due to a small number of whales then they won't be able to afford to keep losing ~20k btc per month for long and then profits will decline. I could be wrong, maybe the whales are more numerous than I imagine, maybe they are some high rollers playing by proxy from Macau or something.