Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Risk Mgmt]

I believe he stated among various reasons the Rising Taxes by the politicians add rising Interest rates and than ofcourse the Water/Electricity bills rising rates too...

Since the Gov't is going broke...they're only tool to make money is taxation...rising taxes, rising everything.

[Risk Mgmt]

Below is example of type of confusions:

He was fairly bullish on DOW Jones but now he seems to be going bit soft or delaying that bullish vibe

Todays' Blog writing:

The Holiday Schedule is below. The closing for our models will be TODAY and for the most part this will be a full normal day.

We are hovering around our year-end numbers in many markets from gold and the pound to oil and the Dow, which if it closes lower than last year 17823.07, then there is a risk that we will see further consolidation in 2016 and the Phase Transition will be far worse pointing to 2017-2020.  As we move into 2017, this will be the year from Political Hell since the direction of the world is on the brink with political elections which may yet prove to be a revolution and generational shift in so many countries not the least will be the US elections in November 2016.

Silver is already below its key number warning it is weaker than gold. Gold is trying to hold on to 1044, but the day is just starting. The S&P500 number for the close will be 205890 whereas in the DAX it lies at 1036700. In the British pound, the number is 15200, but the main number will be 146.12. Of course in Crude, the key number will be 35.11.

This is just a few markets. Today?s close will signal what is to come for 2016.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What do you all decipher from above entry of his from earlier today?

[THX 1138]

Has Armstrong given any  specific reasons as to why real estate will crash? Other than the fact that most people can't afford it? And is this a temporary crash followed by a quick recovery? I agree with him about gold probably continuing to drop, but i m not sure what his reasoning is for real estate crashing

I recall the following explanation by TPTB_need_war from a while back.

...It is mostly the collapse of leverage, leverage that was piled on to fund the extension of the industrial age beyond its useful lifespan. China ate the end of the industrial age and leveraged up to hell with 0 and negative profit margins, and in doing so thus caused a symbiosis in the West that also levered up to avoid making the transition to the post-industrial age...

[jehst]

Armstrong wrote a blog post where he said that people in Rome just walked away from their properties rather than paying the taxes.

Homes are private, tangible property so they should go up in value after a loss of confidence in government alongside gold and commodities.

I think it's not so much the leverage that will destroy home prices, but the taxes. You simply won't be able to afford to keep the home if you have to pay 20% of its value every year. If taxes go high enough, the house becomes unsellable.

[sidhujag]

Has Armstrong given any  specific reasons as to why real estate will crash? Other than the fact that most people can't afford it? And is this a temporary crash followed by a quick recovery? I agree with him about gold probably continuing to drop, but i m not sure what his reasoning is for real estate crashing

I recall the following explanation by TPTB_need_war from a while back.

...It is mostly the collapse of leverage, leverage that was piled on to fund the extension of the industrial age beyond its useful lifespan. China ate the end of the industrial age and leveraged up to hell with 0 and negative profit margins, and in doing so thus caused a symbiosis in the West that also levered up to avoid making the transition to the post-industrial age...

Its interesting that here in vancouver the prices are probable atleast 30% above the 2007 peak... At current interest rates tax would have togo up 100x to cause bankruptcies

[jehst]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/27536

Our problem is what Rome faced. The greater the economic turmoil in government, the more aggressive they become in taxation. In this regard, real estate is not a movable asset and it can cross the bell curve and decline due to taxation and the lack of mobility. Romans just began to walk away from their property. Therefore, property in North America will tend to be the safest only because it is extremely difficult to invade with troops and tanks. Blow it up with a nuke – sure, but then nothing matters anyway. So staying within the realm of reality, the greatest threat will be taxation.

The greatest threat isn't leverage, but taxation.
Your house is big and visible. You can't deny that you have it. You can't hide it away somewhere like diamonds or gold.
Real, tangible goods will be worth a lot if confidence in government collapses, but the government will still be alive and desperate for revenue. I wouldn't want to have a lot of your wealth in home equity. Like pension funds and bank deposits, they will be frozen, seized, and taxed when the government gets desperate.

[sidhujag]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/27536

Our problem is what Rome faced. The greater the economic turmoil in government, the more aggressive they become in taxation. In this regard, real estate is not a movable asset and it can cross the bell curve and decline due to taxation and the lack of mobility. Romans just began to walk away from their property. Therefore, property in North America will tend to be the safest only because it is extremely difficult to invade with troops and tanks. Blow it up with a nuke – sure, but then nothing matters anyway. So staying within the realm of reality, the greatest threat will be taxation.

The greatest threat isn't leverage, but taxation.
Your house is big and visible. You can't deny that you have it. You can't hide it away somewhere like diamonds or gold.
Real, tangible goods will be worth a lot if confidence in government collapses, but the government will still be alive and desperate for revenue. I wouldn't want to have a lot of your wealth in home equity. Like pension funds and bank deposits, they will be frozen, seized, and taxed when the government gets desperate.

If tax gets that high homes will be worthless instead of being worth alot( probably worth the material only)

[jehst]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/27536

Our problem is what Rome faced. The greater the economic turmoil in government, the more aggressive they become in taxation. In this regard, real estate is not a movable asset and it can cross the bell curve and decline due to taxation and the lack of mobility. Romans just began to walk away from their property. Therefore, property in North America will tend to be the safest only because it is extremely difficult to invade with troops and tanks. Blow it up with a nuke – sure, but then nothing matters anyway. So staying within the realm of reality, the greatest threat will be taxation.

The greatest threat isn't leverage, but taxation.
Your house is big and visible. You can't deny that you have it. You can't hide it away somewhere like diamonds or gold.
Real, tangible goods will be worth a lot if confidence in government collapses, but the government will still be alive and desperate for revenue. I wouldn't want to have a lot of your wealth in home equity. Like pension funds and bank deposits, they will be frozen, seized, and taxed when the government gets desperate.

If tax gets that high homes will be worthless instead of being worth alot( probably worth the material only)

Yep. Then you walk away and rent.

[sidhujag]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/27536

Our problem is what Rome faced. The greater the economic turmoil in government, the more aggressive they become in taxation. In this regard, real estate is not a movable asset and it can cross the bell curve and decline due to taxation and the lack of mobility. Romans just began to walk away from their property. Therefore, property in North America will tend to be the safest only because it is extremely difficult to invade with troops and tanks. Blow it up with a nuke – sure, but then nothing matters anyway. So staying within the realm of reality, the greatest threat will be taxation.

The greatest threat isn't leverage, but taxation.
Your house is big and visible. You can't deny that you have it. You can't hide it away somewhere like diamonds or gold.
Real, tangible goods will be worth a lot if confidence in government collapses, but the government will still be alive and desperate for revenue. I wouldn't want to have a lot of your wealth in home equity. Like pension funds and bank deposits, they will be frozen, seized, and taxed when the government gets desperate.

If tax gets that high homes will be worthless instead of being worth alot( probably worth the material only)

Yep. Then you walk away and rent.

Yup.. Ive actually done that recently(not walk away ofcourse)

[OROBTC]

I believe he stated among various reasons the Rising Taxes by the politicians add rising Interest rates and than ofcourse the Water/Electricity bills rising rates too...

Since the Gov't is going broke...they're only tool to make money is taxation...rising taxes, rising everything.

Yes, it's always the same solution with governments: as they go broke they raise taxes.

They don't consider (or else reject) cutting spending.  Living within one's means works best, whether at the family level or for nations as a whole.

But politicians only think short-term, the next (re-)election.  "Let the next guy clean up the mess."  THIS is why we must look after ourselves, why we must plan for government to not be there, or more likely, be there to take away our assets.  So, they don't cut spending, and they can get away with it.

[MF Doom]

Armstrong wrote a blog post where he said that people in Rome just walked away from their properties rather than paying the taxes.

Homes are private, tangible property so they should go up in value after a loss of confidence in government alongside gold and commodities.

I think it's not so much the leverage that will destroy home prices, but the taxes. You simply won't be able to afford to keep the home if you have to pay 20% of its value every year. If taxes go high enough, the house becomes unsellable.

Yeah, I guess unreasonable taxation seems to be the only plausible explanation for a real estate crash. Looking at all the other taxes they are pushing (carbon taxes, the obamacare TAX, etc) its no surprise real estate would be next. But honestly I don't think just real estate will crash, they are sucking EVERYONE dry, seems like more than just real estate will crash

[THX 1138]

... they are sucking EVERYONE dry, seems like more than just real estate will crash

Yeah, I think you got it.

Anyway, here in the UK it's time to start drinking and usher in an uncertain New Year. I kind of had the feeling that was the last "normal" Christmas for a good while - I hope to be proved wrong. Anyhow, don't let 'em grind you down. When it comes to it there's more of us than them.

Cheers to all of you!

[Risk Mgmt]

Below is example of type of confusions:

He was fairly bullish on DOW Jones but now he seems to be going bit soft or delaying that bullish vibe

Todays' Blog writing:

The Holiday Schedule is below. The closing for our models will be TODAY and for the most part this will be a full normal day.

We are hovering around our year-end numbers in many markets from gold and the pound to oil and the Dow, which if it closes lower than last year 17823.07, then there is a risk that we will see further consolidation in 2016 and the Phase Transition will be far worse pointing to 2017-2020.  As we move into 2017, this will be the year from Political Hell since the direction of the world is on the brink with political elections which may yet prove to be a revolution and generational shift in so many countries not the least will be the US elections in November 2016.

Silver is already below its key number warning it is weaker than gold. Gold is trying to hold on to 1044, but the day is just starting. The S&P500 number for the close will be 205890 whereas in the DAX it lies at 1036700. In the British pound, the number is 15200, but the main number will be 146.12. Of course in Crude, the key number will be 35.11.

This is just a few markets. Today?s close will signal what is to come for 2016.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What to expect in 2016

What do you all decipher from above entry of his from earlier today?

[jehst]

I never read his "Market Talk" blog posts. They are mostly gibberish. But I think he's saying that the switch from UST to the US stock market might be delayed. He was originally saying it would happen starting in 2016 and then the stock market would double as a result. But now he's saying it could happen in 2017-2020...

But whether the final switch from public to private happens in 2016 or 2017, we're due for at least two more years of dollar dominance because you need USD to buy BONDS and you need USD to buy the US stock market. You need USD either way. So just keep longing the dollar.

[Risk Mgmt]

I never read his "Market Talk" blog posts. They are mostly gibberish. But I think he's saying that the switch from UST to the US stock market might be delayed. He was originally saying it would happen starting in 2016 and then the stock market would double as a result. But now he's saying it could happen in 2017-2020...

But whether the final switch from public to private happens in 2016 or 2017, we're due for at least two more years of dollar dominance because you need USD to buy BONDS and you need USD to buy the US stock market. You need USD either way. So just keep longing the dollar.

Thank you - all that gibberish - you made fine work of it to better explain - Thank you.
May I ask if another source is available to better understand his work / commentary for novice like me?

I was pondering to subscribe to his investor level service ... Your feedback/ suggestions are greatly appreciated
Thank you and Happy New Year

[jehst]

I never read his "Market Talk" blog posts. They are mostly gibberish. But I think he's saying that the switch from UST to the US stock market might be delayed. He was originally saying it would happen starting in 2016 and then the stock market would double as a result. But now he's saying it could happen in 2017-2020...

But whether the final switch from public to private happens in 2016 or 2017, we're due for at least two more years of dollar dominance because you need USD to buy BONDS and you need USD to buy the US stock market. You need USD either way. So just keep longing the dollar.

Thank you - all that gibberish - you made fine work of it to better explain - Thank you.
May I ask if another source is available to better understand his work / commentary for novice like me?

I was pondering to subscribe to his investor level service ... Your feedback/ suggestions are greatly appreciated
Thank you and Happy New Year

This thread is the best place on the internet for commentary on Armstrong's posts.

[tabnloz]

I never read his "Market Talk" blog posts. They are mostly gibberish. But I think he's saying that the switch from UST to the US stock market might be delayed. He was originally saying it would happen starting in 2016 and then the stock market would double as a result. But now he's saying it could happen in 2017-2020...

But whether the final switch from public to private happens in 2016 or 2017, we're due for at least two more years of dollar dominance because you need USD to buy BONDS and you need USD to buy the US stock market. You need USD either way. So just keep longing the dollar.

Thank you - all that gibberish - you made fine work of it to better explain - Thank you.
May I ask if another source is available to better understand his work / commentary for novice like me?

I was pondering to subscribe to his investor level service ... Your feedback/ suggestions are greatly appreciated
Thank you and Happy New Year

Agree. Market posts need multiple, slow readings. From what I gather, he has been saying it all depends on year end closings as to whether we will see the false move & slingshot in 2016 or whether it is more likely to muddle through 2016 and 2017 will be the phase transition. I think according to the closing Dow numbers, it's muddle through, and that makes the move in 2017 more violent. And yes, he says the capital will flow into the USD, US stocks & piling into the short end of the bond market. I think he also writes often that this is the same process as happened during the great depression: European countries defaulted (Austria etc) and so capital flowed into the safety of the US economy.

The other theme being discussed here is real estate and taxation. From memory, the RE top is the 2015.75 date, but the falls were generally to be seen in the high end market. I think the reason given was increasing tax laws (eg UK's new buy to let tax for landlords) and capital controls lessening flows into prime RE markets. Think about it - what is a perfect asset class in which to tax investors? RE! It's illiquid and investors are easily demonised (especially if foreign) so that the govt gets the public / media onside. "Hey, there's Chinese / Arab / US / Uk investors making housing unaffordable........"

As for increased taxes, I think he links the rise in welfare commitments for government & migration to the increased hunt for money. It's not always the specific tax, more so that there will just be more of them (carbon,property, xyz...). This also ties in with increased surveillance as increased co-operation between countries is being put into place to track people and their money in order to tax it.

With the main ECM model and the 2015.75 date, in the forecaster doco you hear him say at his conference that after that date, over 2016 and into 2017, things really fly downhill going into 2020. The hunt for taxes to cushion increasingly broke governments all coincides with the Cycle of War (started rising from 2014?) and the Independent Politician / Separatist Movements that peak over 2016/2017 with major elections in US and Europe.

[xm2hi]

Posted From bitcointalk.org Android App

[sidhujag]

In other words lets push shtf until 2020 to try to milk people for more money

[Risk Mgmt]

I never read his "Market Talk" blog posts. They are mostly gibberish. But I think he's saying that the switch from UST to the US stock market might be delayed. He was originally saying it would happen starting in 2016 and then the stock market would double as a result. But now he's saying it could happen in 2017-2020...

But whether the final switch from public to private happens in 2016 or 2017, we're due for at least two more years of dollar dominance because you need USD to buy BONDS and you need USD to buy the US stock market. You need USD either way. So just keep longing the dollar.

Thank you - all that gibberish - you made fine work of it to better explain - Thank you.
May I ask if another source is available to better understand his work / commentary for novice like me?

I was pondering to subscribe to his investor level service ... Your feedback/ suggestions are greatly appreciated
Thank you and Happy New Year

Agree. Market posts need multiple, slow readings. From what I gather, he has been saying it all depends on year end closings as to whether we will see the false move & slingshot in 2016 or whether it is more likely to muddle through 2016 and 2017 will be the phase transition. I think according to the closing Dow numbers, it's muddle through, and that makes the move in 2017 more violent. And yes, he says the capital will flow into the USD, US stocks & piling into the short end of the bond market. I think he also writes often that this is the same process as happened during the great depression: European countries defaulted (Austria etc) and so capital flowed into the safety of the US economy.

The other theme being discussed here is real estate and taxation. From memory, the RE top is the 2015.75 date, but the falls were generally to be seen in the high end market. I think the reason given was increasing tax laws (eg UK's new buy to let tax for landlords) and capital controls lessening flows into prime RE markets. Think about it - what is a perfect asset class in which to tax investors? RE! It's illiquid and investors are easily demonised (especially if foreign) so that the govt gets the public / media onside. "Hey, there's Chinese / Arab / US / Uk investors making housing unaffordable........"

As for increased taxes, I think he links the rise in welfare commitments for government & migration to the increased hunt for money. It's not always the specific tax, more so that there will just be more of them (carbon,property, xyz...). This also ties in with increased surveillance as increased co-operation between countries is being put into place to track people and their money in order to tax it.

With the main ECM model and the 2015.75 date, in the forecaster doco you hear him say at his conference that after that date, over 2016 and into 2017, things really fly downhill going into 2020. The hunt for taxes to cushion increasingly broke governments all coincides with the Cycle of War (started rising from 2014?) and the Independent Politician / Separatist Movements that peak over 2016/2017 with major elections in US and Europe.

Thank You - turbulence with ups and downs is what I'm getting from your notes above