Martin Armstrong Discussion

[sidhujag]

Any idea why Canadian REI is going through the roof again? another 30-40% increase this last year and 15% last month alone... Part of the decision to sell my home this past month was his strong claim that REI had peaked and a super bubble was to be popped, makes so much sense but instead we have the makings of a new bubble in the market fueled by low rates and affordable mortgages at these rates. By my calculation prices could double here before we get back to the levels we were in 2008 assuming rates stay put. So instead of peaking in october I'm seeing a new super bubble forming and even seasonal bearish trends in REI hasn't had the desired affect in slowing the market down.

Chinese/Indian money still pouring in, although Chinese black markets are being shutdown so I'm not sure what's fueling it so much other than affordability. Now I'm thinking of building another home to take advantage of the bubble relatively soon, but I want to know Armstrong's thoughts since he timed it to peak although I'm seeing the opposite.

asset price inflation, REI is being monetised because fiat savings are being debased by State monetary meddling.

How has that changed since 2008.. what is lighting a fire under ppl's asses right now.

[TPTB_need_war]

If peer review supports the soundness of RingCT cryptography interest could expand exponentially. There are more potential uses than I can count and this is the most promising privacy technology I have seen so far. The inability to verify the number of coins in circulation with ZeroCoin scares me.  At least if something goes wrong with the money supply system with RingCT we would be able to tell.

I am quite confident that blockchain privacy is not a huge topic anymore. Of course RingCT may draw some extra attention to Monero. However, in my opinion that still would not be relevant.

The fintech is finally converging on the markets and real business issues. However, real business that has money doesn't care about privacy, it's simply of out scope. There is no huge ass real world problem in it that could be backed by corporate money that will stimulate adoption and attention.

This still maybe a great update and it serves privacy goals well. However, privacy protection issue is still a small niche, not a mass phenomenon.

Disagree. Real business and corporate money will struggle greatly with transparent blockchains. They don't have the same exact privacy goals as individuals and freedom advocates, but they have their own. In particular, not wanting to be spied on by competitors nor front run in markets. That's why, for example, CT is critically important even in Blockstream's closed blockchain Liquid.

Privacy from the NSA, when the NSA means the largest globalist corporations (politically connected with the global police state) have asymmetric access to secrets?

Making anonymity that is immune to the global police state is an immense challenge especially for businesses, because they can't just go hop on another anonymous WiFi connection every time they want to interact with the block chain (and that won't even help you individually with a low scale coin like Monero, because you are the only person hopping on anonymous WiFi in your geographical area so your transactions can still be correlated!). Making an IP address mixnet that is immune to a party which can see all traffic over the internet is an extremely challenging if not implausible statistically. I have been thinking deeply for a long time about the sort of attacks that are possible on mixnets and nothing (that I've analyzed) seems to entirely immune.

A generative essence realization is there is no possible way to obfuscate your IP address with an autonomous cryptographic protocol (such as RIngCT or Cryptonote). The only way to obfuscate IP addresses is with an interactive mixnet, which then either incurs a simultaneity requirement or the mixnet must generalize to many forms of internet traffic so a sufficient mix set always available. But especially generalized mixnets suffer from Sybil attacks because of the cost of scaling relaying nodes scales with traffic and DDoS. As smooth knows from our past private discussions (afair last year), my only idea on how to attack the Sybil problem of Tor and I2P is to pay the nodes you are want to relay through for an onion routing. But this comes with another set of holistic issues. So far, I haven't been able to design the system that is immune to the NSA. I am still working on this problem, but have deprioritized it, because to my consternation it is such an intractable quagmire (a.k.a. clusterfuck).

So let's say we only want privacy against other smaller corporations that don't have special access to NSA analysis. Yet now we must assume the NSA can't be hacked or individual employees bribed. And the NSA is not the only national security agency doing this. We have at least the 5 Eyes nations plus Russia and China with sophisticated, well funded national security agencies.

Can you know understand better why Martin Armstrong (and I reguritated) that a Dark Age is possible?

The world is in a pickle. I am doing my best to try to find a way out. I am now thinking perhaps anonymity is not the ticket (yet continuing to develop and consider it, as an option) and instead massive volume of micro-transactions might be more liberating. In short, to pursue my Knowledge Age theory of breaking the Theory of the Firm down to individualized production. In short, death the corporation as being too slow to even effectively use the data it is accumulating. If you read my 2010 thesis linked from the OP of the Economic Devastation thread (in the Economics forum), you can gain insight into what I am referring to where I explained that top-down access to information is not knowledge creation. Knowledge creation is accretive, spontaneous, and highly individualized.

Paradigm shift. I am apparently good at creating those, not so much at the intricate patterns of chess (too many intricacies are burdensome to the degrees-of-freedom to see over the forest). In short, I prefer deforestation paradigms.

[tabnloz]

ZH is reporting that there are dozens of stock markets the world over that are down 10% + in 2015, with more than 20 down 20% +. WHile the US market hasnt set the world on fire, it is at least maintaining.

Armstrong sees the US market booming as EM's collapse the world over, but I am thinking that, in comparison, it already has, just that the difference comes from the decline of the EM's not a US rise.

[OROBTC]

ZH is reporting that there are dozens of stock markets the world over that are down 10% + in 2015, with more than 20 down 20% +. WHile the US market hasnt set the world on fire, it is at least maintaining.

Armstrong sees the US market booming as EM's collapse the world over, but I am thinking that, in comparison, it already has, just that the difference comes from the decline of the EM's not a US rise.

I am not really uo to speed on the most recent financial events because of my trip, but while there may be a bump up (which might be a good one: 10% - 20% or more perhapa), these events almost always spread.

Warning is what we are getting from the ROW stock markets.......

[jehst]

Gold, and commodities in general are crashing, yet bitcoin is rising incredibly! Bitcoin looks very strong.

Bitcoin has undergone a phase transition.

[OROBTC]

Gold, and commodities in general are crashing, yet bitcoin is rising incredibly! Bitcoin looks very strong.

Bitcoin has undergone a phase transition.

Well, maybe.  BTC is at $443 or so now.  Whatever flaws there are in the BTC model, it looks pretty strong now.

At some point I would like to see Armstrong comment on BTC.  

And a good place to put some of one's wealth.  The world seems to be getting crazier by the day...

[tabnloz]

China has announced it will peg the yuan to the SDR basket instead of just USD

"Yes, China will henceforth look at the Yuan not only relative to the USD but relative to the currencies of all its trade partners (since the USD keeps surging and on a relative basis, China's deval to the USD means nothing at all relative to all other currencies)."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-11/what-chinas-stunning-announcement-means-expect-much-more-yuan-devaluation

Right before a potential rate rise.

Bullish for bitcoin?

[RealBitcoin]

Damn it's just sick everybody wants to devalue it's currency.

Are these guys so afraid of value and capital? Are they afraid of capitalism (after all they are either communists or corporatists)?


If yes ,then why dont they give me the value, they can get rid of it faster by just giving it to me

Print all the fiats all day, and give them to me, I know what to do with the value they dont want.

[jehst]

Damn it's just sick everybody wants to devalue it's currency.

Are these guys so afraid of value and capital? Are they afraid of capitalism (after all they are either communists or corporatists)?


If yes ,then why dont they give me the value, they can get rid of it faster by just giving it to me

Print all the fiats all day, and give them to me, I know what to do with the value they dont want.

Agreed. "Exporting deflation" is a truly silly idea. Export your deflation to me. I'll go to your country and go on a spending spree that'll give you all the inflation you need.

[RealBitcoin]

Damn it's just sick everybody wants to devalue it's currency.

Are these guys so afraid of value and capital? Are they afraid of capitalism (after all they are either communists or corporatists)?


If yes ,then why dont they give me the value, they can get rid of it faster by just giving it to me

Print all the fiats all day, and give them to me, I know what to do with the value they dont want.

Agreed. "Exporting deflation" is a truly silly idea. Export your deflation to me. I'll go to your country and go on a spending spree that'll give you all the inflation you need.

Yes but the elite doesnt want inflation in general goods. For them inflation = increasing stock & bond market, which is a pretty silly definition, but that is what they interpret it.

So they want inflation, but only for their investments. They don't want increasing prices for the sheeps because they they might revolt.

Unfortunately, the inflation still spills out to the public, and all the bailouts and printed money is increasing the cost of living too. You cant keep and eat the carrot at the same time.

[sidhujag]

The Us started it with the plaza accord act in mid 80s which would let usd devalue at expense of bric currencies, those countries fell into the trap and now payin for it, the cycle is complete and us will rise while these currencies fall. if they dont devalue they wont be competitive in the global market because they are export based nations. Once us becomes export based again it will shift(unless there is a breakthrough)

[RealBitcoin]

The Us started it with the plaza accord act in mid 80s which would let usd devalue at expense of bric currencies, those countries fell into the trap and now payin for it, the cycle is complete and us will rise while these currencies fall. if they dont devalue they wont be competitive in the global market because they are export based nations. Once us becomes export based again it will shift(unless there is a breakthrough)

That is true however that is not how I view macroeconomics. It's a way to C&C based economy if you put it that way.

The fact remains, why do exporter countries export at all?

Why dont they sell those items in their country, so that those citizens would have more?

In this economy, everybody exports and sells, and in the end nobody gets money except the corporate, making the little guy poorer and poorer. This is a too ugly corporatist theory.


What you need to do is stop export and start consuming (for exporting countries).

AND

Start producing and stop import (for importer countries).

[sidhujag]

The Us started it with the plaza accord act in mid 80s which would let usd devalue at expense of bric currencies, those countries fell into the trap and now payin for it, the cycle is complete and us will rise while these currencies fall. if they dont devalue they wont be competitive in the global market because they are export based nations. Once us becomes export based again it will shift(unless there is a breakthrough)

That is true however that is not how I view macroeconomics. It's a way to C&C based economy if you put it that way.

The fact remains, why do exporter countries export at all?

Why dont they sell those items in their country, so that those citizens would have more?

In this economy, everybody exports and sells, and in the end nobody gets money except the corporate, making the little guy poorer and poorer. This is a too ugly corporatist theory.


What you need to do is stop export and start consuming (for exporting countries).

AND

Start producing and stop import (for importer countries).

In a global marketplace effiency is achieved by linking producers and consumers from across jurisdictions or countries, if one country produced the goods and had enough demand to consume them thry would not need to export. Sometimes they can help their deficit if the goods are rare and kind of like create a tax for their local residents similar to how oil is exported out of canada and resold at a higher price after refining yet sold cheaper in the purchasing country. That is mainly done because of the huge demand from the us that canada cannot provide itself. If the country decided to keep it for itself it would create a recession howver in the long run it may drive people into those countries which are unwilling to sacrifice its resources for the sake of profit.

[RealBitcoin]

In a global marketplace effiency is achieved by linking producers and consumers from across jurisdictions or countries, if one country produced the goods and had enough demand to consume them thry would not need to export. Sometimes they can help their deficit if the goods are rare and kind of like create a tax for their local residents similar to how oil is exported out of canada and resold at a higher price after refining yet sold cheaper in the purchasing country. That is mainly done because of the huge demand from the us that canada cannot provide itself. If the country decided to keep it for itself it would create a recession howver in the long run it may drive people into those countries which are unwilling to sacrifice its resources for the sake of profit.

Here are the facts:

Companies export to countries that pay more for their products or buy more from it -> higher demand


They dont give a shit about local consumers who dont have money to buy it. And also if they dont produce the stuff, they have to import it with extra costs, which is even worse.


How about people start producing, remove the bureocrat bullshit that is blocking production and then we can have flowless international trade. And not just for companies but for real persons too.

It is ugly that people cant trade freely only companies can. This roadblock must dissapear, otherwise we will end up with a corporatocracy.

[sidhujag]

In a global marketplace effiency is achieved by linking producers and consumers from across jurisdictions or countries, if one country produced the goods and had enough demand to consume them thry would not need to export. Sometimes they can help their deficit if the goods are rare and kind of like create a tax for their local residents similar to how oil is exported out of canada and resold at a higher price after refining yet sold cheaper in the purchasing country. That is mainly done because of the huge demand from the us that canada cannot provide itself. If the country decided to keep it for itself it would create a recession howver in the long run it may drive people into those countries which are unwilling to sacrifice its resources for the sake of profit.

Here are the facts:

Companies export to countries that pay more for their products or buy more from it -> higher demand


They dont give a shit about local consumers who dont have money to buy it. And also if they dont produce the stuff, they have to import it with extra costs, which is even worse.


How about people start producing, remove the bureocrat bullshit that is blocking production and then we can have flowless international trade. And not just for companies but for real persons too.

It is ugly that people cant trade freely only companies can. This roadblock must dissapear, otherwise we will end up with a corporatocracy.

It is up to the government to figure that out, for example they put tarrifs on exporting wood logs because that cuts mill jobs, even though china pays a premium for them. If the government is corrupt as I believe in the case of oil it is then we have a losing scenario, and something where removing trust of a middleman would improve with trade settling on the blockchain.

[suda123]

Ahh Now I see what TPTB means by game theory, took 2 months to kick in geeze

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong, while he is not a fan of Trump, understands US fury with our terrible .gov.  He also understands what is happening in France too:

"Marion Marechal-Le Pen – the Better Looking Donald Trump of France"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40454

She is the niece of Marine LePen.  Marion is a pretty young (25) lady, and apparently very smart.  Oh, and now in the French Parliament.

*    *    *

While not stated at Armstrong's posts re Trump and Marion Marechal-LePen, when countries get into trouble (or when the Fourth Turning hits), a very typical response is for a "Man on Horseback" to come in to lead, a tough guy (or gal) to take the reigns...  Examples:

- George Washington
- Napoleon
- Ronald Reagan (younger readers likely do not have any recollection of the last part of Jimmy Carter, ugh)
- Hitler
- Trump?

When people get fed-up, then things get interesting and/or dangerous...

[criptix]

Can any1 please recollect the latest armstrong predictions?
I didnt really follow and would like to know how exact his predictions were.

[thatbluedude]

Awfully quiet here.  They just released the 10$ Socrates demo. Nobody got anything to say about it?
If I my current understanding of it is correct I’m slightly disappointed. afaik the initial promise was 100$ p.a. for enough information to manage your (average joe)retirement money.
What’s the average (in my case European) Person supposed to do?  Go 100% pay per click? Subscribe to S&P500 and dax individually? Just shell out the 450$ for basic global coverage? Not be a twenty-something year old with only a few k in savings to bring the management fee % down?

[jehst]

Do you need to buy the reports?

Capital is flowing into the US just like he said. Emerging markets continue to get gutted. USD peg just broke in Azerbaijan and the manat fell 50% against the dollar. Nigeria is banning credit card use outside Nigeria. Naira peg will break. China will continue devaluing. Probably going to go back to 8 RMB per dollar some time by the end of 2017.

If I weren't betting most of my money on crypto, I'd be shorting the renminbi and naira with heavy leverage now. The Chinese government is very predictable. They won't let economic growth go flat. They will devalue their currency and try to export more. It's all they know how to do.

But there's no point chasing 20% yearly moves in fiat:fiat. Even a doubling of the stock market (huge bubble) would only turn your $2000 into $4000 after a year of hard work investing with perfect timing. It's actually a waste of time compared to getting a job and earning $10,000. Finish your education and get a good job. Buy Armstrong's info when you have $100,000