Martin Armstrong Discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

The current discussion has made me regard the Europeans much higher than before 

... you must be wantonly ignoring the doomed communist "Euro" project they allowed, no welcomed, into their houses.

[rpietila]

The current discussion has made me regard the Europeans much higher than before 

... you must be wantonly ignoring the doomed communist "Euro" project they allowed, no welcomed, into their houses.

Only a century after you, my friends, allowed the FED to rob yourselves blind

[rpietila]

Would love to have some more reliable and clear data points to show me so.

Apology accepted.

I needed to check because it seemed that you criticized CK for its "European=undesirable model".

In the game,

- the King (me) is European.

- all of the 3 Dukes (the next highest level) are American.

- all of the 4 Princes are from a different continent: Europe, America, Asia and Africa.


So in each continent, it is possible to find people who are attracted by social order as presented in CK. And that Americans like it the most

[marcus_of_augustus]

The current discussion has made me regard the Europeans much higher than before 

... you must be wantonly ignoring the doomed communist "Euro" project they allowed, no welcomed, into their houses.

Only a century after you, my friends, allowed the FED to rob yourselves blind

... assuming I'm american.

[rpietila]

The current discussion has made me regard the Europeans much higher than before 

... you must be wantonly ignoring the doomed communist "Euro" project they allowed, no welcomed, into their houses.

Only a century after you, my friends, allowed the FED to rob yourselves blind

... assuming I'm american.

I don't think an argument between the two of us is useful. We both know the history of Euro and the treason used to shove it down the throats of the people in countries that were not in favor (although some were). I don't have much formal education but my Major in Economics actually included a full course in the history of Eurosystem 

[OROBTC]

...

Today, Armstrong addresses a topic close to my heart, gold coins as an investment:

"Gold Coins"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38374

Armstrong advises to NOT buy numismatic (rare) gold coins.  No rare dates, no extremely high grades (eg MS-65).  His comments seem to be aimed at US gold coins dated 1933 and earlier.  He suggests common dates.

*   *   *

I cannot really offer any useful comment, but I have seen that premiums for higher grades and rare dates have done very well over the years.  But, numismatic coin collecting is really best done by people who know what they are doing (or will invest the time to learn).

For strictly gold investing, my take would be stick with the US $5, $10 and $20 gold pieces as Armstrong suggests.

Or just buy bullion coins like the US Gold Eagle, US Gold Buffalo, Canadian Gold Maple Leafs, etc.

[rpietila]

Gold purchasing power and numismatic premium are orthogonal and often correlate negatively.

If you believe gold is a good investment, you should not buy numismatic premium.

If you believe gold price is high, buy numismatics and hedge the bullion value, pocket the premium when the price goes down.

Eg. 90% per-1964 silver coins can be had at 0-3% when silver price is high. Buy them, and sell them at 12% when it is low (such as now).

[OROBTC]

Gold purchasing power and numismatic premium are orthogonal and often correlate negatively.

If you believe gold is a good investment, you should not buy numismatic premium.

If you believe gold price is high, buy numismatics and hedge the bullion value, pocket the premium when the price goes down.

Eg. 90% per-1964 silver coins can be had at 0-3% when silver price is high. Buy them, and sell them at 12% when it is low (such as now).

Thanks, rpietila, you show some sharp & crisp thinking.

But, there can be various considerations in buying and holding gold.  Yes, if you want the maximum in gold ONLY (and that's all you care about), then pick a cheap bullion coin.  Krugerrands are about the cheapest.  Bullion in bars is even cheaper, but some will want that assayed should you want to sell...

Excellent comment on orthogonality (and even negative correlation) between price movements and premiums.  That is true.  Armstrong mentions that in his piece.

I do three things differently than the "average gold buyer":

1)  I buy some US$5s, US$10s, and the occasional Peruvian Una Libra (when there).  These are coins that I just want!  I also believe that a diversification in gold is not a bad idea either.  My US pre-1933 gold coins are actually all dated 1899 and before.  Roosevelt once seized US gold, ONLY numismatic pieces were exempt.  Pre-1900 coins would be numismatic by any similar standard.  But, I have always taken Armstrong's advice (without even knowing) by buying coins in "AU" condition (pretty nice), why should I collect ugly & worn coins when for a small amount more I can get something that looks pleasing?  About 80

2)  Your comments re "trading off of premiums" (buying & selling as price vs. premiums change) does make sense, except in my case.  I plan to never sell.

3)  The bulk of my gold is in USA product, even if it costs a little more.  First, such gold is easier to recognize (hence more easily accepted) among Buyers if I really did have to sell.  Also, at least in recent years, you "get the premium back" should you sell.  But, I don't want to sell...  (I have made a few exceptions to have some foreign gold so that I can compare it with anybody wanting to sell that)

[altcoinUK]

According to Armstrong "Today was one of those days that had the potential to build on last weeks gains but dealers say the market structure is being discussed more than prices and economic data – especially given Deutsche Bank’s restructuring announcement earlier this morning! We will be talking more about this in coming blogs as this will not be an isolated incident."

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38396

I am looking for a correction after the latest rally so I hope my puts on SPX and DJI will come to fruition. We should see a larger drop at SPX today than the yesterday 12 points, and then shut out to SPX 2,045 to get closer Armstrong's threshold of DJI 17,700 range which is his criteria for the slingshot move. Alternatively, we can test the the 1,970-1,950 support straight away. We will see. Nobody knows, probably not even the Goldman-FED-ECB brigade who rule the market.
I think we will see more fireworks on the market once Apple publish its earnings, I think on the 27th Oct.

[rpietila]

Gold purchasing power and numismatic premium are orthogonal and often correlate negatively.

Thanks, rpietila, you show some sharp & crisp thinking.

I don't often work, but dealing in gold I did for 7.5 years, enough to learn quite a lot of it. 

[DigiLab]

Guys, this came out:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38411

Since TPTB is off (hope he'll recover fast and join us back soon), what the others think about it.
The very last sentence is quite descriptive, and might be quite revealing if understood right:
"When we look at both the futures and the cash on the Canadian dollar, it does appear that there will be a shift in trend next year more likely than not with the Commodity Cycle."

In particular, what's up with the Commodity Cycle? E.g. commodities will go down, while US$ will go up??
And that would not be good for the Canadian Dollar, as it will follow the commodities going down???
But Canadian Dollar already has a trend going down, and then what would actually mean "shift in trend"?

Will Canadian Dollar has the same faith as the EUR and GBP, or maybe not to that extent, or??

[smfuser]

I think we will see more fireworks on the market once Apple publish its earnings, I think on the 27th Oct.

Yes, they should be released about 4:30 EST October 27. Do you have an expectation about Apple's earnings?

[altcoinUK]

I think we will see more fireworks on the market once Apple publish its earnings, I think on the 27th Oct.

Yes, they should be released about 4:30 EST October 27. Do you have an expectation about Apple's earnings?

No, I don't have. I am trading mainly with indices, SPX, DJI, Russel, ETFs, GDX, etc.

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong takes a quick look at the large outflow of capital from China:

"China Capital Outflows Reach $500 Billion"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38474

That $500 billion outflow is just for the first eight months of 2015...

Snip from his article:

"So while some only want to focus on China selling U.S. long-term debt, they ignore the fact that the outflows far exceed the sales of dollar debt."

^^^ Looks like many of the rich in China want OUT. ^^^

[danijel]

Iam just a newbi ,bbut Ithink that this 20 minutes fit in the M.Armstrong discussion

https://youtu.be/pVxV5aZwo3A

[THX 1138]

Iam just a newbi ,bbut Ithink that this 20 minutes fit in the M.Armstrong discussion

https://youtu.be/pVxV5aZwo3A

I did watch the video - quite a bit of subliminal stuff going on there. Somewhat Dan Brown / David Icke.

[smfuser]

I think we will see more fireworks on the market once Apple publish its earnings, I think on the 27th Oct.

Yes, they should be released about 4:30 EST October 27. Do you have an expectation about Apple's earnings?

No, I don't have. I am trading mainly with indices, SPX, DJI, Russel, ETFs, GDX, etc.

Ok, I was curious why you thought Apple's earnings release would cause fireworks in the overall market.

[altcoinUK]

I think we will see more fireworks on the market once Apple publish its earnings, I think on the 27th Oct.

Yes, they should be released about 4:30 EST October 27. Do you have an expectation about Apple's earnings?

No, I don't have. I am trading mainly with indices, SPX, DJI, Russel, ETFs, GDX, etc.

Ok, I was curious why you thought Apple's earnings release would cause fireworks in the overall market.

Because I thought the market will be flat until the 27th and AAPL is big enough the make it move in both way. I was obviously wrong about it. Draghi, the sockpuppet of Goldman Sachs made move the market today.

These people, "The Boyz", the sockpuppets of Goldman Sachs in the FED and ECB as well as in government (the latest is the Australian PM) don't stop until they fully destroy the world economy.

[tabnloz]

Armstrong's latest interview on Alex Jones show

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EuO86-EwbM

Europe is a mess, likely to see beginnings of debt meltdown by March 2016

[rpietila]

I am not sure if Armstrong at all understands Europe. Don't confuse your own desire to be a more functional society to actual facts. Europeans similarly believe that the USA is a mess that will blow up any time.