Martin Armstrong Discussion

[OROBTC]

...

Martin Armstrong today (Sunday) has a couple of nice items worth reading:

1)  Europe wants to have EVERYONE there to have a bank account, M.A. thinks this will lead to the possible death of the Euro (M.A. also comes mighty close to praising Donald Trump):

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36368

2)  Osborne (of the UK) wants to tax certain rental properties more...:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36325

[trollercoaster]

MF DOOM 2015.75 remains the date pinpointed as the BEGINNING of a global economic nosedive, it was never a prediction in and of itself to be seen as a total collapse, I can only recommend you read more carefully into Armstrongs work, we are heading into a period of confusion, totalitarianism and "unrest" not seen for 300+ years.

[marcus_of_augustus]

MF DOOM 2015.75 remains the date pinpointed as the BEGINNING of a global economic nosedive, it was never a prediction in and of itself to be seen as a total collapse, I can only recommend you read more carefully into Armstrongs work, we are heading into a period of confusion, totalitarianism and "unrest" not seen for 300+ years.

it's really interesting that the last period of "the Great Confusion" was during the last Maunder Minimum in sunspot activity (it went on for almost decades 1645-1715), however coming out the other side we had the Renaissance, so maybe something to look forward to in 2090 eh?

[wxa7115]

...

"Obama is Targeting Your Retirement Accounts"

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31455

From today.  I cashed-out my IRA several years ago, thinking that .gov might just try this sort of thing.  IRAs and 401k's are easy targets.  Beware.

My father, a very wise man, saw that this was a scam the very first time this was introduced in my country. And as such never contributed a single cent.

[americanpegasus]

So the the whole 2015.75 (sept/oct) predictions of another financial collapse are now slated for 2018?

It just seems like these predictions constantly get thrown around, and every time nothign comes of them, they are ust pushed out a year or two

You want sound bites instead of actually studying in detail that is why you misunderstand.

We have explained many times that the model is the contagion outside the USA starts to accelerate as of Oct 1.

This will cause stampede of capital into the USA, with rising dollar and interest rates in the USA, while the rest of the world falls off the cliff. By 2017.9, this will force the USA over the cliff.

By 2018, we'll in the global contagion hell (USA was the final straw holding up the global economy) yet by 2020 Asia will bottom. Yet the West will continue to collapse. As some point a political axis power-sharing global monetary reset into a NWO one-world reserve currency (by 2032 at the latest), and then we'll see some tenuous global stability, but that political morass will be a parasite that must die. And the West will continue to decline in relative networth for decades. The strong dollar and rising interest rates (as well the prior dollar QE caused via ZIRP carry trade the $9 trillion dollar-short debt in the developing world) while rest of the world collapses will be one of the political justifications for the one-world reserve currency. Also it will be Asia's rising relative networth after 2020.

A radical change to the world begins in earnest this Oct. 1. It is a decades long turbulence.

This is a 309.6 year confluence of cycles event (Civilization change cycle, Public/Private cycle, War Cycle, Pandemic Cycle, etc). Very rare. Happened only a few times in recorded history of the world.

 
 
Wow.  Thank you for the amazing insights.  You really are one of the best posters here on bitcoin talk, and I always enjoy reading your stuff.

[bigtimespaghetti]

...

"Obama is Targeting Your Retirement Accounts"

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31455

From today.  I cashed-out my IRA several years ago, thinking that .gov might just try this sort of thing.  IRAs and 401k's are easy targets.  Beware.

My father, a very wise man, saw that this was a scam the very first time this was introduced in my country. And as such never contributed a single cent.

In the west I believe we are only a few steps away from 'compulsive' private pensions (you already have to opt-out of automatic 'private' pensions in the UK and Holland). The UK and much of Europe have 'National Insurance' already that workers pay which over time has become inadequate to fund the state's largesse.

[wxa7115]

...

"Obama is Targeting Your Retirement Accounts"

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31455

From today.  I cashed-out my IRA several years ago, thinking that .gov might just try this sort of thing.  IRAs and 401k's are easy targets.  Beware.

My father, a very wise man, saw that this was a scam the very first time this was introduced in my country. And as such never contributed a single cent.

In the west I believe we are only a few steps away from 'compulsive' private pensions (you already have to opt-out of automatic 'private' pensions in the UK and Holland). The UK and much of Europe have 'National Insurance' already that workers pay which over time has become inadequate to fund the state's largesse.

I believe this too, originally these pensions were supposedly created in order to help people save money, but very rapidly it became another stealth tax. Form time to time TV campaigns air trying to make people to save even more money in their pensions. But anyone with real life experience (in my country) knows that it can take years to withdraw that money and some times you’ll never see it again.

[macsga]

Seems M.A. predicted more than one thing right:

China’s shares wiped out all of this year’s gains, setting Asian markets tumbling, as fears about the deepening effects of a slowdown in the world’s No. 2 economy rattle investors across the globe.

A number of currencies in the region fell to multiyear lows, with shares in China down more than 8%, and benchmarks in Japan and Australia both shedding more than 2%. The losses early Monday follow steep declines in U.S. and European stocks on Friday, and add to the pressure that has driven some commodities to multiyear lows and battered emerging markets.

At the heart of the selloff is the concern that the once-highflying Chinese economy may be slowing down dramatically. China’s surprise move to devalue its yuan two weeks ago—which would make its exports more competitive—and a string of weak economic data has tipped off worries that one of the world’s biggest drivers of growth may be slowing faster than expected.

Investors will be looking to China’s next move after The Wall Street Journal reported that the central bank is preparing to flood the banking system with liquidity to boost lending. Some economists say that China still has plenty of levers to pull to get its economy back into gear.

Still, the lack of official action over the weekend spooked investors Monday morning.

“There’s going to be plenty of red on the screens today,” said Auckland-based Macquarie Equities broker Brad Gordon.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-shares-wipe-out-2015-gains-as-stocks-tumble-85-2015-08-24

[dEBRUYNE]

This article might interest some of you:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-23/the-fed-is-looking-at-a-very-different-dollar-than-wall-street

Credits to smooth for linking me to it.

[dEBRUYNE]

Seems M.A. predicted more than one thing right:

China’s shares wiped out all of this year’s gains, setting Asian markets tumbling, as fears about the deepening effects of a slowdown in the world’s No. 2 economy rattle investors across the globe.

A number of currencies in the region fell to multiyear lows, with shares in China down more than 8%, and benchmarks in Japan and Australia both shedding more than 2%. The losses early Monday follow steep declines in U.S. and European stocks on Friday, and add to the pressure that has driven some commodities to multiyear lows and battered emerging markets.

At the heart of the selloff is the concern that the once-highflying Chinese economy may be slowing down dramatically. China’s surprise move to devalue its yuan two weeks ago—which would make its exports more competitive—and a string of weak economic data has tipped off worries that one of the world’s biggest drivers of growth may be slowing faster than expected.

Investors will be looking to China’s next move after The Wall Street Journal reported that the central bank is preparing to flood the banking system with liquidity to boost lending. Some economists say that China still has plenty of levers to pull to get its economy back into gear.

Still, the lack of official action over the weekend spooked investors Monday morning.

“There’s going to be plenty of red on the screens today,” said Auckland-based Macquarie Equities broker Brad Gordon.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-shares-wipe-out-2015-gains-as-stocks-tumble-85-2015-08-24

Also from your article, Armstrong was/is spot on again:

The jitters have pushed investors to sell assets from stocks to emerging-market currencies and high-yield bonds, while scooping up haven assets such as U.S. government bonds.

[TPTB_need_war]

This article might interest some of you:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-23/the-fed-is-looking-at-a-very-different-dollar-than-wall-street

Credits to smooth for linking me to it.

The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. If it raises interest rates, the dollar will get even stronger. But if it doesn't raise interest rates pensions will go soon start defaulting.

And it if doesn't raise interest rates by backing out its bloated balance sheet then it has no ammunition for a future scenario where it needs to QE again.

The Fed will and must take a middle ground so it will raise rates in baby steps. But this will spiral out-of-control due to the contagion outside the USA, and with the USA stock markets skyrocketing, the Fed will feel compelled to raise interest rates faster in order to prevent a selloff of bonds. Well even if the Fed doesn't do it, the bond sellers will drive interest rates sky high as they exit to buy US stocks.

You heard it first from me. No one else has ever explained that bolded part.

Expect MA to echo me soon.  

Edit: MA is already getting closer to realizing or stating the above (but I beat him to it):

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36393

This three-month rout in equities is scaring the hell out of everyone and changed the view that the Fed will not raise rates sending the dollar lower in which appears to be completing the bubble in government, particularly in Europe. The bells are ringing across world markets on Monday with a 9% nosedive in Chinese shares that has sent the major commodities into a panicked tailspin and a sharp drop in the dollar as investors try to figure out where to run now.

...

We are seeing a dollar decline in Japan and Europe, which is precisely the two places we need the dollar to drop the most furthering deflation in those economies to push them over the edge.

...

Everything still suggests that we have a Directional Change this week and today could be the intraday low. So pay attention.

It is almost time to buy the US stock market. Pay attention.

[TPTB_need_war]

This back an forth is uninteresting and can be simplified mathematically to the following.

F(x)=

CoinCube: For any finite value of x the function is not 0
TPTB_need_war: The answer is 0
CoinCube: For a finite value of x the function is greater than zero
TPTB_need_war: Why do I have to repeat myself the answer is zero

You have a blind spot when it comes to economics.

If the opportunity cost of not joining the Knowledge Age is say 10 - 100X greater than remaining in the financed NWO morass, the profit margins of the financed world go negative (in fact this has already happened in China in the export manufacturing sector!) because you have too many competing for the same small bounded value (relative to the Knowledge Age value and the unbounded opportunities for growth).

Thus collapse to 0. That collapsed financed NWO system will try to survive by TOTALITARIANISM and eugenics.

Q.E.D.

[TPTB_need_war]

TPTB: do you have any thoughts on the "black monday" crash going on right now?  Is this the start to the 2015.75 financial crash?  A foreshadowing of things to come over the next couple months?

 Any steps to take in the immediate future?

As I explained in my post in the MA thread today, this is the false move that causes the peak in bonds by Oct. 1.

You should be selling gold, BTC, and bonds, and buying US dollar and US stocks on this low this week.

Hold tight in that until Spring 2016, then diversify some into gold and crypto coins (especially mine  ) as they will bottom (<$700 and <$100).

[altcoinUK]

Hold tight in that until Spring 2016, then diversify some into gold and crypto coins (especially mine  ) as they will bottom (<$700 and <$100).

We are waiting for your coin and I tried to explain in this post why

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=854280.msg12228823#msg12228823

[TPTB_need_war]

Hold tight in that until Spring 2016, then diversify some into gold and crypto coins (especially mine  ) as they will bottom (<$700 and <$100).

We are waiting for your coin and I tried to explain in this post why

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=854280.msg12228823#msg12228823

Thank you. And I do appreciate. May I request we all go silent now about vaporware.

Crypto is going to collapse over the next few months and sentiment will be in the toilet. That is the time to buy. Remember that lesson of investing, buy low and sell high. Ignore sentiment.

I will do the same. Thank you again.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Hold tight in that until Spring 2016, then diversify some into gold and crypto coins (especially mine  ) as they will bottom (<$700 and <$100).

We are waiting for your coin and I tried to explain in this post why

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=854280.msg12228823#msg12228823

Thank you. And I do appreciate. May I request we all go silent now about vaporware.

Crypto is going to collapse over the next few months and sentiment will be in the toilet. That is the time to buy. Remember that lesson of investing, buy low and sell high. Ignore sentiment.

I will do the same. Thank you again.

I agree, but I would say pay attention to sentiment when people are screaming about how stocks/bitcoin will never go up again. Headlines can be good indicators. But try not to be sucked into sentiment yourself and remain detached- have a plan before hand what you will do at specific price targets so you don't let emotion rule your decisions.

[TPTB_need_war]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36410

We can see the string of Directional Changes. This is EXTREMELY UNUSUAL and warns that this move today has caused systemic damage to confidence, which helps the shift into the flight to quality that we require to finish the bubble in government.

Indeed, we can even see the confidence shift today on the forum. Look how many new members are posting in this thread today.

[sidhujag]

This article might interest some of you:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-23/the-fed-is-looking-at-a-very-different-dollar-than-wall-street

Credits to smooth for linking me to it.

The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. If it raises interest rates, the dollar will get even stronger. But if it doesn't raise interest rates pensions will go soon start defaulting.

And it if doesn't raise interest rates by backing out its bloated balance sheet then it has no ammunition for a future scenario where it needs to QE again.

The Fed will and must take a middle ground so it will raise rates in baby steps. But this will spiral out-of-control due to the contagion outside the USA, and with the USA stock markets skyrocketing, the Fed will feel compelled to raise interest rates faster in order to prevent a selloff of bonds. Well even if the Fed doesn't do it, the bond sellers will drive interest rates sky high as they exit to buy US stocks.

You heard it first from me. No one else has ever explained that bolded part.

Expect MA to echo me soon.  

Edit: MA is already getting closer to realizing or stating the above (but I beat him to it):

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36393

This three-month rout in equities is scaring the hell out of everyone and changed the view that the Fed will not raise rates sending the dollar lower in which appears to be completing the bubble in government, particularly in Europe. The bells are ringing across world markets on Monday with a 9% nosedive in Chinese shares that has sent the major commodities into a panicked tailspin and a sharp drop in the dollar as investors try to figure out where to run now.

...

We are seeing a dollar decline in Japan and Europe, which is precisely the two places we need the dollar to drop the most furthering deflation in those economies to push them over the edge.

...

Everything still suggests that we have a Directional Change this week and today could be the intraday low. So pay attention.

It is almost time to buy the US stock market. Pay attention.

Only way bond vigilantes can affect interest rates is by raising the yield, by selling bonds. However if yields go up expect many new buyers to come back in (mostly foreign) so its an uphill battle for the vigilantes.

[altcoinUK]

TPTB: do you have any thoughts on the "black monday" crash going on right now?  Is this the start to the 2015.75 financial crash?  A foreshadowing of things to come over the next couple months?

 Any steps to take in the immediate future?

As I explained in my post in the MA thread today, this is the false move that causes the peak in bonds by Oct. 1.

You should be selling gold, BTC, and bonds, and buying US dollar and US stocks on this low this week.

Hold tight in that until Spring 2016, then diversify some into gold and crypto coins (especially mine  ) as they will bottom (<$700 and <$100).

In your theory the US stocks will raise but what happens to other stock markets (China, Europe..). Would they collapse?

Yes. According to Armstrong the money will flow to the United States. I think that is what TPTB_need_war says as well.

[TPTB_need_war]

A massive buying opportunity coming on the US stocks, but the low might even more extreme than MA first anticipated:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36526

Sell your excess gold and crypto into cash now! You will be much better position in US stocks on this coming extreme low. The low in gold and crypto (and reset of new bull market) will come later in spring 2016, then you diversify out of US stocks.

Also as I predicted, he is mirroring what I wrote recently about interest rates:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36520